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[Robz888]

Wait, let's stop this for now.

Eevee, explain yourself further.

[mcmcsalot]

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

Because he definitely claimed tracker:

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

And yet he's now claiming to have targeted me last night because he thought I was a likely NK target:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

If you're a tracker, you track a person you think is scum. What Eevee describes doing fits a watcher not a tracker. An actual PR wouldn't have made that mistake.

Okay, right. Yes, I thought that too.

But here's the thing... Eevee is either Tracker who got the Tracker role wrong, or scum who got the Tracker role wrong. I'm surprised that Eevee got it wrong in either case, but I'm not sure the latter is more believable than the former. Wouldn't his scum buddies have helped him pick a target and rationale?

They could have chosen to have him screw it up, I guess.

So I think at this point eevee is obviously scum, robz preventing me from getting the eevee lynch through by making the jreggie case seem better an then trying to get a lalight case going when the jreggie one stalled and people started considering eevee again is really suspicious from my perspective. i think scum!spaceanemonie and scum!witherweaver just don't work with a town jreggie and scum partner eevee.

I think it is very likely robz/eevee/lalight or robz/eevee/cal.

[Witherweaver]

I think I'm for lynching Eevee.

[mcmcsalot]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Eevee (1): Witherweaver
teamlyle (3): Calamitas, mcmcsalot, silverspawn
silverspawn (7): Eevee, SpaceAnemone, teamlyle, gkrieg13, LaLight, pacovf, J Reggie
J Reggie (1): Robz888

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch.

Day 2 Final Vote Count

LaLight (2): Calamitas, SpaceAnemone
Eevee (2): J Reggie, pacovf
J Reggie (5): LaLight, Robz888, Eevee, teamlyle, Witherweaver

Not voting (1): mcmcsalot

With 9 alive, it took 5 to lynch. Twilight starts now and ends at 9:31 am forum time tomorrow.

okay well wagons actually definitely point toward lalight being scum. that makes me much less confident on what I think robz is but more confident we can lynch eevee followed by lalight and figure out where to go from there.

[Robz888]

Why do you think this makes Eevee more likely to be scum?

Because he definitely claimed tracker:

I'm a tracker. I targeted gkrieg last night.

And yet he's now claiming to have targeted me last night because he thought I was a likely NK target:

I targeted SA, whom I though most universally town-read (so a likely target for a mafia kill). Received no result.

If you're a tracker, you track a person you think is scum. What Eevee describes doing fits a watcher not a tracker. An actual PR wouldn't have made that mistake.

Okay, right. Yes, I thought that too.

But here's the thing... Eevee is either Tracker who got the Tracker role wrong, or scum who got the Tracker role wrong. I'm surprised that Eevee got it wrong in either case, but I'm not sure the latter is more believable than the former. Wouldn't his scum buddies have helped him pick a target and rationale?

They could have chosen to have him screw it up, I guess.

So I think at this point eevee is obviously scum, robz preventing me from getting the eevee lynch through by making the jreggie case seem better an then trying to get a lalight case going when the jreggie one stalled and people started considering eevee again is really suspicious from my perspective. i think scum!spaceanemonie and scum!witherweaver just don't work with a town jreggie and scum partner eevee.

I think it is very likely robz/eevee/lalight or robz/eevee/cal.

If Eevee is scum--and I mean, yeah, he probably is--I think you are his most likely partner. You tunneled him from the beginning of the game, never wavering, but also never actually getting him lynched, and you detoured to support other lynches. That's excellent scum play.

[Robz888]

okay well wagons actually definitely point toward lalight being scum. that makes me much less confident on what I think robz is but more confident we can lynch eevee followed by lalight and figure out where to go from there.

What do you mean by that?

[Witherweaver]

I don't think McMc and Eevee look like partners.

[Robz888]

I don't think McMc and Eevee look like partners.

Why not? What's wrong about my reasoning?

[Witherweaver]

I don't think McMc and Eevee look like partners.

Why not? What's wrong about my reasoning?

Just from memory on how they interacted and went after another.  Seemed the non-partnery, hard to fake kind.

[Robz888]

I don't think McMc and Eevee look like partners.

Why not? What's wrong about my reasoning?

Just from memory on how they interacted and went after another.  Seemed the non-partnery, hard to fake kind.

Fair enough. Or you're covering for them.

Which would mean LL, Space, and Calamitas are my townies? This is going to be fun.

[Witherweaver]

... it's very quiet here.

[Calamitas]

... it's very quiet here.

All waiting for eever I guess

[teamlyle]

Vote: Witherweaver

[teamlyle]

unvote

[teamlyle]

Unvote

[Calamitas]

Guys, wait for eevee before doing anything else.

[LaLight]

I'm pretty sure about Eevee being scum. Also, Robz still is suspicious. Idk, who's the third one.

[SpaceAnemone]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

@Calamitas, I'd still be interested in your thoughts/numbers for this question, if you want something to do while we wait for Eevee to come back.

[Calamitas]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

@Calamitas, I'd still be interested in your thoughts/numbers for this question, if you want something to do while we wait for Eevee to come back.

Depends on his answer, but quite high right now. Maybe 0.8 or so.

[Witherweaver]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

@Calamitas, I'd still be interested in your thoughts/numbers for this question, if you want something to do while we wait for Eevee to come back.

I think this is either not productive, or it's rolefishing.

[mcmcsalot]

vote: eevee

He's not coming back to explain I don't think. He is caught scum. I know a town on town vote loses and I'm town but I can't see me not lynching eevee and I need this to move along.

[Witherweaver]

I would give him until tonight.

[Calamitas]

Yep

[SpaceAnemone]

First we want to have eeves result

What do you think of the chances of Eevee's claim being a lie at this point, with so many other roles around?

@Calamitas, I'd still be interested in your thoughts/numbers for this question, if you want something to do while we wait for Eevee to come back.

I think this is either not productive, or it's rolefishing.

You don't find it suspicious that the person who was so consumed earlier in the game with theory stuff isn't immediately interested in new evidence, and didn't have an answer for my question?

The number he's given, while correct to 1 significant figure as a prior, hides a fair bit in the rounding. On known roles alone, the chance of there not actually being a tracker in the game is a bit over 0.84. I'd be shocked if town!Calamitas hadn't worked that out, so what would town!Calamitas's motive for downplaying Eevee's scumminess be?

Also, the 0.84 figure is just a prior, and doesn't take into account any of Eevee's scummy behaviour.. so Calamitas's real answer should almost certainly have been higher, even with rounding to 1sf. He sort of covers for this when saying that he wants to hear Eevee's answer, but I'm still quite suspicious anyway.

[Witherweaver]

Well, you have a point that he might argue that way, yes.