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[Cellovix]

Welp. I have decided that my chances of winning are too low even if there are 2 scum left. So let's roll the dice!

Vote: Cellovix

I'm town.

Neat.

I am also a town.

[faust]

Well at least I got that part right. What remains is the convincing.

[Cellovix]

I will be home for the evening in approximately idk.  8-9 hours.

I will make posts then, but please do read our back and forth, as well as our posts previously, obviously.

[faust]

The game ends tonight!

If I have time!

Well, I'd kinda like to be around for that, but if it's like forum-time-night, then I'll be asleep.

[faust]

Noone here?

I probably won't stay up much longer than another hour. I don't wont to be lynched in my sleep, but there's only so much I can do.

[faust]

I guess let's walk through the scum narrative for me. I will make the steps and point out why they don't really make sense.

1) I pushed RR hard prior to his fullclaim
- that's actually towny. I mean, not the push itself (though I think I had pretty good reasons), but the fact that, even though I pointed out glaring contradictions in RR's posts, I was ultimately convinced. As scum, at that point I could have plausibly stayed on RR wiithout looking too scummy - but I didn't.

2) On D1, I tried to get a mislynch on Seprix instead of voting for one of RR/Jan
- this isn't really true. If you read through it, you will realize that I only voted elsewhere because I thought we could neutralize Jan if he cannot self-target. Had I been his partner, I would have known that he can self-target. So I would have known from the start that my Seprix vote would ultimately be unsupported and I'd have to move back to RR/Jan. Then why make this detour at all? I could have just stayed on Jan and looked townier for it.

3) I defended Haddock and pushed J Reggie.
- okay, let's be real here. What would have been the game plan in this? I try to get Reggie lynched, then Haddock gets lynched twice? And in the meantime, Haddock can somehow double-kill so that I win before people can lynch me? I mean, you just have to realize that this is a godawful plan. It banks on all kills being successful. It banks on Haddock not getting shot by some vigilante type after he is outed scum. This is an RMM game, and everything could have easily gone wrong with this plan. That is, if you even believe that scum can somehow make 2 kills twice. I mean once, I can see that somehow. But twice is just literally overkill.

4) My claim
- most of what I can say about this I have already said in the above post. The claim, as scum, would only serve to keep Haddock alive one more time, which would only work in a very specific setting. In all other situations, it just looks plain bad for me. There's also the fact that I breadcrumbed. Could I have fake-breadcrumbed as scum? Sure. But that would mean that I have decided to stick with the same role I contrived at game start. Which certainly happens, but is to some extent less likely.

[faust]

Right... this is as long as I can stay.

I would like to have another chat, that is, if you decide you want to lynch me. You can lynch Cellovix anytime you want.

[faust]

I should be around for most of tomorrow.

[iguanaiguana]

I've looked at this from several metrics and it all just points to more evidence for Faust being scum than Cellovix.

First of all, their claimed roles and how they match up with what I already know about the existing roles in the game.

So, Faust claims that he can travel back in time to roleblock in the past. And yet Fontisian's role was town roleblocker. At the same time, Cellovix claims to be a variant of every other night doctor, and there are no other protective roles that have flipped other than my own one shot self-protection. So, Cellovix's claim seems more likely to be a town claim than Faust's.

Then, there are the opinions of the dead players.

EFHW and J Reggie both were scumreading Faust and townreading Cello on the last day that they were alive.
Teamlyle also mainly wanted to vote for Faust and Haddock, and was willing to sheep Cello with me.

Fontisian's final vote was for Faust after everyone ignored her suggestion that we vote for Haddock, and said little to nothing about Cello.

Cron distrusted Faust and townread Cello.

silverspawn spent his last day pushing Haddock really hard (probably why he got the NK), but before that he was going back and forth on Faust a lot, and going after Cello. On the 3-way random lynch day, silver voted for Faust to give me the chance to stay alive.

Seprix ended the day townreading Cellovix and scumreading Faust as well.

Wow, I didn't expect that to be so consistent. If Cellovix is scum here, then every single townie was wrong about him, and if Faust is town, every single town was wrong.

[iguanaiguana]

Right... this is as long as I can stay.

I would like to have another chat, that is, if you decide you want to lynch me. You can lynch Cellovix anytime you want.

Sorry for being slow!

I can chat if you want, but I think I am basically convinced to lynch you.

[iguanaiguana]

Honestly, I'm mainly laying out as much evidence as I can now to show you that I am not doing this in a derpy sort of way.

[iguanaiguana]

I guess let's walk through the scum narrative for me. I will make the steps and point out why they don't really make sense.

1) I pushed RR hard prior to his fullclaim
- that's actually towny. I mean, not the push itself (though I think I had pretty good reasons), but the fact that, even though I pointed out glaring contradictions in RR's posts, I was ultimately convinced. As scum, at that point I could have plausibly stayed on RR wiithout looking too scummy - but I didn't.

I mean, it looks scummy the same way everyone says that I was looking scummy. You voted for Roadrunner until it looked pretty inevitable that Jan was getting lynched and switched. You definitely could have done it as town, but it's just as likely or more likely to come from scum.

2) On D1, I tried to get a mislynch on Seprix instead of voting for one of RR/Jan
- this isn't really true. If you read through it, you will realize that I only voted elsewhere because I thought we could neutralize Jan if he cannot self-target. Had I been his partner, I would have known that he can self-target. So I would have known from the start that my Seprix vote would ultimately be unsupported and I'd have to move back to RR/Jan. Then why make this detour at all? I could have just stayed on Jan and looked townier for it.

I don't really have an opinion on this. I don't think it makes you look towny though.

3) I defended Haddock and pushed J Reggie.
- okay, let's be real here. What would have been the game plan in this? I try to get Reggie lynched, then Haddock gets lynched twice? And in the meantime, Haddock can somehow double-kill so that I win before people can lynch me? I mean, you just have to realize that this is a godawful plan. It banks on all kills being successful. It banks on Haddock not getting shot by some vigilante type after he is outed scum. This is an RMM game, and everything could have easily gone wrong with this plan. That is, if you even believe that scum can somehow make 2 kills twice. I mean once, I can see that somehow. But twice is just literally overkill.

We don't really know what tools you had up your sleeve to give your plan a better shot of success. And considering the analysis I just did, which basically points to every single player in the game thinking you and Haddock were scum before they died, it may have been a pretty desperate attempt to save a sinking ship.

It doesn't make a ton of sense, but what makes even less sense is that the universal townread who has towny interactions with all known scum players is the final scum.

4) My claim
- most of what I can say about this I have already said in the above post. The claim, as scum, would only serve to keep Haddock alive one more time, which would only work in a very specific setting. In all other situations, it just looks plain bad for me. There's also the fact that I breadcrumbed. Could I have fake-breadcrumbed as scum? Sure. But that would mean that I have decided to stick with the same role I contrived at game start. Which certainly happens, but is to some extent less likely.

As per breadcruming, you could just be a scum roleblocker. As per the rest, I mean, I dunno man, if you did this as town, I guess you lost us the game.

[iguanaiguana]

My conclusion is that if Faust is town, he had terrible luck and made some very questionable plays, whereas Cellovix played an almost perfect scum game. If Cellovix is town, the whole game just makes more sense.

There's no sense in drawing this out any more.

Vote: Faust

[iguanaiguana]

I guess what convinced me most was reading who the dead players were voting for right before they died.

[Cellovix]

Am home now.  Will be around to answer any questions you have, Iguana.

Like, obviously lynching Faust is the correct decision but I'd be saying that as either alignment, so...

[Cellovix]

Oh, PPE.

Good call!

There is literally no way Faust was town, from an objective perspective.  He was just going through the motions today, taking stuff I said or did out of context and presenting them as super scummy.

[Cellovix]

He definitely killed EFHW last night in order to try some kind of desperation WiFOM/reverse psychology thing on you today, as it was the only chance he had.

[iguanaiguana]

I really wanted to answer two of these questions.

Day One Iguana Analysis:

There is a lot of really awful analysis going around in this game so far.

At least my bad analysis is intentionally bad analysis.

Cite your sources here. What do you consider to be awful analysis, and why?

Super don't feel like it at this time.

I originally got pretty frustrated with Iguana about this, but decided it almost certainly came from town. I think he'd have appeased me here if he were scum and put forth a token effort rather than just blow it off. Iguana - would you mind answering this now? What analysis were you considering bad at the time you made that post?

[iguanaiguana]

He definitely killed EFHW last night in order to try some kind of desperation WiFOM/reverse psychology thing on you today, as it was the only chance he had.

Hey, mind telling me whether we win?

[Cellovix]

Also:

[iguanaiguana]

And...the other one!

Day One Iguana Analysis:
 

I also really want to soft claim tho becuase I've got this really funny meme idea....

well not that funny.

Iguana, can you talk about what you would have soft claimed here? 

[Cellovix]

He definitely killed EFHW last night in order to try some kind of desperation WiFOM/reverse psychology thing on you today, as it was the only chance he had.

Hey, mind telling me whether we win?

Faust was scum unless you were, so.

[iguanaiguana]

I'm town. I think we win.

[Cellovix]

I had a truly massive case against Faust about half completed, and I was dreading having to pour in another 1-2 hours of work to finish it, so I'm really glad you pulled the trigger, heh.

[gkrieg13]

As Nathan raced towards the last of the perpetrators, he was stopped by two people.  Each claimed they had been framed by the other!

As he mulled over both options, he decided one of them was scum.  But was he right?

Vote Count 6.final

Faust (2): Cellovix, iguanaiguana
Cellovix (1): faust

With 3 alive, it took 2 to lynch.

Faust has been lynched!  He was Sylar, The Ability-Stealing Serial Killer

Iguanaiguana has been endgamed.

The mafia team of Jan, Haddock, and Cellovix has won!