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[fontisian]

Oh well.

Hey, did you shoot Ichi with me n1?

[faust]

Vote Count 4.3

fontisian (1): 2.71828.....
2.71828..... (1): fontisian

Not Voting (5): liopoil, silverspawn, Haddock, Witherweaver, Roadrunner7671

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 4 ends June 29 at 9 am forum time. That's in 14 hours.

[2.71828.....]

I will be around(ish) probably for the next few hours, then sleep, then check in again when I wake up. I really don't think there is much else to say though.

I am a great lynch.....tomorrow

[silverspawn]

oh e claimed scum. vote: e

[2.71828.....]

oh e claimed scum. vote: e

Did you even read my post?

Fontisian also claimed scum, by the way

[silverspawn]

1) scum who might help town > scum who won't

2) I do not buy the theory that the SK can still win, which means that we should do the opposite of whatever you are advocating

3) I've already done the numbers. lynching you is better.

[silverspawn]

and call me naive, but I believe she's probably genuine.

[Roadrunner7671]

Wacky idea time:

Don't listen to scum.

Wait, that's not a wacky idea. That's kinda smart! Why would the town listen to scum?

So let's not lynch Fontisian or no lynch.

But wait! Fontisian is also scum! And we can't listen to scum. So let's not lynch 2.7!

How do we feel?

[2.71828.....]

Should I motivate Fontisian? I think yes.

Uh... I don't know. let's see. Plugging that into my analysis post:

4 - 1 - 2
Lynch Mafia -> 4 - 1 - 1
... Three town get shot -> 1 - 1 - 1 Probably a Loss
... Two towns and mafia get shot -> 2 - 1 Win
... Two towns and SK get shot -> 2 - 1 LyLo
... Both scum get shot -> Win

3 - 1 - 3
Lynch Mafia -> 3 - 1 - 2
... Three towns get shot -> Loss
... Two towns and SK get shot -> Loss
... Two towns and one mafia get shot -> 1 - 1 - 1 Probably a Loss
... Mafia and SK and Town get shot ->  2 - 1 LyLo
... Two Mafia and anyone get shot -> Win

Comparing that to the original:

Let's examine both separately.

4 - 1 - 2
Lynch Mafia -> 4 - 1 - 1
... Two towns get shot -> 2 - 1 - 1 Could be winnable
... Town and scum gets shot -> 3 / 1 MyLo
... Two Scum get shot -> Win

3 - 1 - 3
Lynch Mafia -> 3 - 1 - 2
... Two towns get shot -> Lose
... Town and SK get shot -> Lose
... Town and Mafia get shot -> 2 - 1 - 1 Could be winnable
... Mafia and SK gets shot -> 3 / 1 MyLo

And the answer is actually yes if we trust fontisian.

But if not, then no. Because then she gets a way to win with the very first line: We're at 4/1/1 after lynching e and all three scum shoot town. This might be the most likely outcome. So... yeah, yes if you trust her, no if you don't.

I personally like it because if she does shoot me, then an extra shot could still save the game. Particularly the first half, it could lead us to 2/1 vs the SK which is a win, rather than 2/1/1, which is probably a loss. Or, if mafia shoots the SK, it's the difference between a LyLo and an instant win.

Yeah, this analysis is assuming the SK plays against he wincon.

I know you silverspawn. I know you always play to your wincon, no matter what. Think through each of those scenarios with a green "win" and ask yourself, of you were the SK, would you pander to town and roll over and let them win? No. You might choose town over scum, yes. But never just give up.

While you are alive, there is hope. Dead, you have nothing. SK is still alive, still has hope. That 1v1v1 or 2v1v1 could both possibly be a SK win. I don't know.

But I do know you would never give up, and I question how you think fontisian would

[2.71828.....]

Wacky idea time:

Don't listen to scum.

Wait, that's not a wacky idea. That's kinda smart! Why would the town listen to scum?

So let's not lynch Fontisian or no lynch.

But wait! Fontisian is also scum! And we can't listen to scum. So let's not lynch 2.7!

How do we feel?

I like it. We can't do anything.

Except you can

You can look at the numbers, and make an educated decision.

Yes, I don't want to get lynched. It might help me win. It will definitely make you lose.

[Roadrunner7671]

2.7 already claimed a partner. So we're at 4 town 3 scum?

If we didn't have 2 night kills, we could lynch perfectly and win.

2.7, are you a PR? Is your buddy?

[Roadrunner7671]

Silverspawn kindly unvote please.

[Roadrunner7671]

Oh crap 14 hours. We actually need something.

I think we need one scum to kill another scum. So poE time.

Options that we can't do:
No lynch
Lynching 2.7
Lynching Fontisian
Lynching RR
Lynching WW

So that leaves?
Lynching ss
Lynching Haddock
Lynching Liopoil

[silverspawn]

I know you silverspawn. I know you always play to your wincon, no matter what.

What? That's not true. I was the one who didn't hammer a claimed Jester when he was survivor because I had promised to play with town.

[silverspawn]

Yeah, this analysis is assuming the SK plays against he wincon.

I know you are mafia this game, but if you want me to have a conversation with you, then don't say silly stuff. That analysis  does obviously assume no such thing. It includes every case.

[Roadrunner7671]

I believe Fontisian will try his best to shoot scum tonight, but I also think his alternate wincon will screw us over terribly.

I'm not listening to claimed scum. I hope Liopoil has a trick or 3 up his sleeve.

[silverspawn]

RR, I know you are crazy and all that, but you're advocating lynching neither of the two claimed scums. Think again.

[silverspawn]

when he was survivor

*I was survivor

[silverspawn]

Silverspawn kindly unvote please.

No thanks.

[Roadrunner7671]

RR, I know you are crazy and all that, but you're advocating lynching neither of the two claimed scums. Think again.

And you're advocating to do what claimed scum wants.

So who's the real crazy one?

[Roadrunner7671]

Does it take a 'crazy' person to know not to listen to claimed scum? Cause if so, I'm proud to be crazy.

[silverspawn]

if a bad person says the sky is blue, that doesn't make the sky yellow.

[Roadrunner7671]

if a bad person says the sky is blue, that doesn't make the sky yellow.

One bad person says the sky is red and the grass is blue. The other bad person agrees the sky is red but they think the grass is purple.

And then there's me, looking at a gray sky and brown grass. You, on the other hand, see green grass and a blue sky. Even though the grass is dead and the sky is full of stormy clouds.

Analogies!

[Roadrunner7671]

This'll make sense to Liopoil. I'm sort of confident in that.

[2.71828.....]

I know you silverspawn. I know you always play to your wincon, no matter what.

What? That's not true. I was the one who didn't hammer a claimed Jester when he was survivor because I had promised to play with town.

What game was this? I don't recall it.