Topic: The Necro Wars (Read 355918 times)

silverspawn · « **Reply #1225 on:** June 23, 2021, 05:10:30 am »

Every time a program doesn't let me choose the installation path I get t he distinct feeling that someone ought to be publicly executed. It's usually from Microsoft.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1226 on:** June 23, 2021, 05:12:10 am »

It's like 'well the primary demographic is the maximally stupidt standard customer, and if you're not that, lol we don't care'

I guess making a custom installation and standard installation button at the start would confuse the standard customer too mcuh

silverspawn · « **Reply #1227 on:** June 24, 2021, 03:10:13 pm »

Finding Øyvind Thorsby's comics has been one of the better things that's happened to me.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1228 on:** June 25, 2021, 06:02:31 am »

I'm heartbroken about Yang not winning his race. He would have done an amazing job governing, and he's going to prove it as soon as he inevitably wins an election eventually.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1229 on:** June 30, 2021, 12:56:43 pm »

every so often I realize how commonly people make simple logical errors and get depressed

silverspawn · « **Reply #1230 on:** July 02, 2021, 08:25:02 am »

In the last half year I've often felt that I've been so consistently unlucky in luck based games that understanding probability suggests it can't possibly be right even while it seems pretty clear cut. Now I've started to count how often I'm first player in mtg and I'm at 19-35 which roughly aligns with my qualitative observation. It's in the leftmost 2% of the distribution which also roughly aligns with observation.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1231 on:** July 02, 2021, 08:27:50 am »

I remember before the election literally thinking that, if I got to trade lots and lots of bad luck in all kinds of stuff for a Trump loss now, I would immediately do that. I'm not saying that we live in a matrix and I'm secretly the experimental subject, it's just that that hypothesis explains the observation set I've had in the past couple of months really well. It's not only in games, either.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1232 on:** July 02, 2021, 08:29:14 am »

Although I take solace in the fact that none of it really matters since the link between small everyday success and longtime success or happiness is so murky and could even totally be negative

faust · « **Reply #1233 on:** July 02, 2021, 08:33:55 am »

Quote from: silverspawn on July 02, 2021, 08:27:50 am

I remember before the election literally thinking that, if I got to trade lots and lots of bad luck in all kinds of stuff for a Trump loss now, I would immediately do that. I'm not saying that we live in a matrix and I'm secretly the experimental subject, it's just that that hypothesis explains the observation set I've had in the past couple of months really well. It's not only in games, either.

I'm not sure how that hypothesis would explain your observation set. There seems to be an assumption that the simulation would conform to your wishes, but if that's the case it should be pretty easy to verify.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1234 on:** July 02, 2021, 08:35:26 am »

I mean just that wish in particular

silverspawn · « **Reply #1235 on:** July 02, 2021, 08:37:11 am »

I admit that hypothesis is very specific

silverspawn · « **Reply #1236 on:** July 03, 2021, 09:33:24 am »

Every now and then I get the desire to read takes from other people about movies and then I do and get incredibly annoyed at how terrible they are. I probably shouldn't do that.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1237 on:** July 03, 2021, 11:40:12 am »

Hm we're at 0.33%. Maybe I'm in the matrix after all

silverspawn · « **Reply #1238 on:** July 04, 2021, 02:25:16 pm »

25-50 I'm not making this up

Awaclus · « **Reply #1239 on:** July 05, 2021, 12:51:37 pm »

Quote from: silverspawn on July 04, 2021, 02:25:16 pm

25-50 I'm not making this up

Well, if you play tens of thousands of games where the first player is chosen by a random chance, it's not that unusual for there to be one streak like this.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1240 on:** July 06, 2021, 12:43:39 pm »

But I don't play tens of thousands of games, and I've started counting once, not scanned over a long list of games to find the maximally skewed sample.

Awaclus · « **Reply #1241 on:** July 06, 2021, 02:16:17 pm »

Quote from: silverspawn on July 06, 2021, 12:43:39 pm

But I don't play tens of thousands of games, and I've started counting once, not scanned over a long list of games to find the maximally skewed sample.

I'm not talking about just Magic but any type of 2p game, does it really not add up to tens of thousands in total?

What is a remarkable coincidence is that you started counting at this specific time when you were having this streak of bad luck, but the fact that you have kept counting when you have kept getting a biased result is obviously not random.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1242 on:** July 06, 2021, 04:40:06 pm »

Quote

What is a remarkable coincidence is that you started counting at this specific time when you were having this streak of bad luck,

Well, this does acknowledge that an unlikely thing occurred, which is the only real substantive point.

The thing is, I was counting because I felt like I've been consistently extremely unlucky for months and wanted to get some objective data on that. Insofar as the experiment is representative of the past couple of months, that's actually past the point of 'this should happen once in a lifetime'.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1243 on:** July 07, 2021, 03:18:12 pm »

silverspawn · « **Reply #1244 on:** July 17, 2021, 05:29:40 pm »

no matrix operators you can't convince me that this is normal. I know what it's like to have normal amounts of good and bad luck, I've had it for over a decade

silverspawn · « **Reply #1245 on:** July 17, 2021, 05:30:48 pm »

the solution to everything is just more mindfulness

silverspawn · « **Reply #1246 on:** July 17, 2021, 06:05:05 pm »

I know there has to be some branch of the wavefunction which looks like this but

jotheonah · « **Reply #1247 on:** July 18, 2021, 10:57:46 am »

there are so many possible improbable things, it would be highly improbable if none of them ever happened.

silverspawn · « **Reply #1248 on:** July 18, 2021, 12:30:26 pm »

yeah but it's like a lot of them over and over again over about half a year

silverspawn · « **Reply #1249 on:** July 20, 2021, 05:26:00 pm »

and it continues and it's honestly probably a net positive in the end because it made me figure out how to not be unhappy when things go wrong

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