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[Witherweaver]

So you're just not going to play any more?

[Roadrunner7671]

So you're just not going to play any more?

I only need to make one more post: it'll be my vote on Egor. We can overthink this as much as you want, but this needs to happen.

[Roadrunner7671]

So you're just not going to play any more?

[Witherweaver]

You're going to need to do more work to convince me you're town. 

[Roadrunner7671]

You're going to need to do more work to convince me you're town.

Want a reads list?  :p

[Roadrunner7671]

I don't know what you're trying to do, but I can't say I like it. So let's look at the facts against Egor:
1. He 'roleblocked' me but the kill went through. Does scum have like 4 strongmen?
2. SS's self hammer and his dying wish that we'd kill Egor.
3. The math: it's unlikely to have the PRs we do.
4. The fact that me, you and SS all wanted to lynch both Egor and SS then just win.
5. I haven't really been scummy this game, and apparently you're confirmed town.
This post probably looks scummy, but it doesn't matter how scummy we acted once the games over. All that matters is which faction wins. I want us to win.

Did you see this? I think this is fairly strong.

[Witherweaver]

I don't know what you're trying to do, but I can't say I like it. So let's look at the facts against Egor:
1. He 'roleblocked' me but the kill went through. Does scum have like 4 strongmen?
2. SS's self hammer and his dying wish that we'd kill Egor.
3. The math: it's unlikely to have the PRs we do.
4. The fact that me, you and SS all wanted to lynch both Egor and SS then just win.
5. I haven't really been scummy this game, and apparently you're confirmed town.
This post probably looks scummy, but it doesn't matter how scummy we acted once the games over. All that matters is which faction wins. I want us to win.

Did you see this? I think this is fairly strong.

Are you serious?  1 is meaningless.. we likely didn't have shots and scum!Egor could have just claimed to block EFHW.  2 and  3 are bad.  4 is a point towards scum you, not town, and 5 is bad for you too.

And your continued statement about how scummy your posts are does give me any good feelings.

[Roadrunner7671]

Oh, well. Then I guess I can't make a good case, you guys lynch me and Egor wins. Or you win, not entirely sure which. Probably Egor.

[EgorK]

This game requires more effort than I'll be able to put today. Stay tuned though

[Witherweaver]

I suppose I will post my thoughts instead of waiting much more.  I'll try to get to it later today or tonight.

[Witherweaver]

Actually we can do this now:

I mean, problem with not getting wagon can still outweight this, but this is definately benefit

On the other hand I think I am ok with PR/nonPR claim

Egor, why were you okay with PR/nonPR claim on Day 1?

[EgorK]

Because I think it would help catch scum - either we would have too much PRs or too much VTs and that would help of course. Now I see that were a bad idea, but that came with experience in this particular setup

[Roadrunner7671]

I don't want to get prodded, but I don't know what to say. I won't vote for a bit. Maybe over the weekend.

[Witherweaver]

Because I think it would help catch scum - either we would have too much PRs or too much VTs and that would help of course. Now I see that were a bad idea, but that came with experience in this particular setup

I think all of the PRs were opposed to claiming: Ash, Teproc, ADK, Silver.  I was even opposed because I was fake claiming a PR.  So you would be the only PR for the claim.

[Witherweaver]

Going to post what I had put in my QT while rereading, starting from when I ended the last one:

(starting from before the Awaclus lynch)

Pretty sure Awaclus is caught here. Definitely sounds like caught scum. The biggest thing was his realization that he knew Teproc was telling the truth, and his correction to his initial response to me. Plus, what the other said. Plus Teproc sounded like a PR after Egor claimed. Possible Egor was lying, but he feels town.

Silver could easily be last scum. He tried to sway away from Awaclus earlier. EFHW is a huge contender, too. I'm actually leaning Silver, but maybe hint towards EFHW.

RR is a crap shoot like always. I wish I had everyone's power of obv reading him. At any rate, Day 1 and 2 seemed very town from him. This recent stuff is weird, though scum is more likely to say less here (which EFHW and Silver are).

Well, Ash can't be right about the XP/Teproc/Awaclus thing now!

(after flip)

Woot woot.

Vig: Silverspawn

I should probably stay alive tomorrow (assuming scum will shoot a PR). If I can hammer the last scum tomorrow I will have hammered all scum this game. Heavily leaning Silver, have to consider EFHW, RR is very slim chance.

I wonder if Silver is going for the 'I can't be scum because I'm not paying enough attention to the game' thing.

EFHW going after RR is odd. I don't think RR is scum here; I'm not sure if EFHW would actually think so. But, she hasn't played with him before.

I don't believe Silver at all. This is not town Silver.

I'll probably quickhammer if he gets to L-1.

(Silver flips)

Well, sorry Silver. I actually thought the self vote was a desperate gambit, trying to make us think scum!you would never do that.

So if Egor is left alive it will be weird... EFHW would do it, I think. RR I have no clue about. If it's me, EFHW, RR, I'll have to seriously think tomorrow. If it's me, Egor, and anyone, that will be tough.

I guess EFHW and RR are about equal for me now.

The one thing against Egor is that he didn't sound like he had a PR day 1. He was also for the plan, where most (all?) PRs were against it. I was even against is as a fake PR.

EFHW seems more genuine in her play towards the end there, though it could just be that it's easy to get involved in the (pointless) probability discussion.

Really, I wish people would stop going through that stuff. Even if we conclude that some case is super unlikely, scum has a trivial "why would I possibly lie when me telling the truth can happen in a 1/xxxx scenario?"

I think it was kind of bad to Silver to even get involved there (wouldn't town!Silver have already considered this?!), and obviously bad from Egor. Plus the Teproc block was just a very "hey, this is what I'd do as town---look I have a great excuse!" thing. I'm really surprised Silver was town.

I'm leaning towards RR now, but I'll have to reread. May wait until the day starts in case I happen to die tonight.

Also her frustration seemed genuine, but again it could just be the argument. Another reason why it's bad; it distracts from actual scumhunting.

I have to put Egor back on the table I guess.. he was mostly off because his play since around the time of his claiming has seemed indicative of thinking as an actual PR. It's possible this was just an artifact of his intent to claim a PR and then stay consistent after the claim. But still, I think scum would full claim (like Awaclus did), and not act to protect their PR. That can, of course, be faked, but it's more likely a real PR will realize this than a fake claimer.

(discussion with Yuma regarding starting day early, which I'm omitting)

There's a good chance I'm going to end up voting RR. Not, like, certain, but probable. Egor's claim does not read fake.

RR may have slipped back in r968:

Quote from: silverspawn on January 24, 2016, 05:08:05 pm
if we believe Egork, then EFHW is an IC, so it's either WW or RR, and I'm pretty sure it's not WW, so... RR?
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We have to consider Bus Driver shenanigans.


I think at that time I wasn't really thinking about what scum's last PR was, and did we even know it was Bus Driver?

Well:

11 shots mafia gets: Shot Changer + Rolecop + Roleblocker. Total 8 shots
12 shots mafia gets: Shot Changer + Roleblocker + Bus Driver. Total 8 shots

This is interesting. So we have had.. Cop, Rolecop, Roleblocker, Watcher, and claimed Roleblocker. The only way that claim can be true is this scenario:

5. If town receives no 1, 2 or 3s (Cop, Vig, JK) in its first four rolls then the town will receive an extra fifth roll. However, this additional roll will bring in zero additional shots for town. If a 1, 2, or 3 is rolled for the fifth shot, 2 shots will be removed from the town total.
Example4: Role: 6, 4, 4, 10 extra roll is 9 = BG (3), RB (3), RB (3), Shot Changer (2) + extra roll: 9 = Rolecop (0) for a total of 11 shots.
Example5: Role: 4, 6, 5, 10 extra roll is 2 = RB (3), BG (3), Watcher (3), Shot Changer (2) + extra roll: 2 = Vig (-2) for a total of 9 shots.

Where the last role had to be 1 (Cop). So it had to be:

4, 5, 9, 4 (claimed), 1, bringing in: 3,3,4,3, -2 shots, for 11 shots.

So.. scum has to have Rolecop?

So, scum!RR is spreading misinformation for confusion, or town!RR is just pondering.

What are we in if Egor is lying?

Then we rolled 4,5,9,1. We are in none of cases 2,3,4, or 5. So we have: 3,3,4,1 shots for 11. Okay, so 11 shots regardless, so last scum has to be Rolecop?

I don't know, though, Egor seemed to consider the Bus Driver case just as much as RR.

Rereading RR there are so many "slips" in setup knowledge that it's suspicious.

But of course, confirmation bias. If I thought he was more likely town now I'd probably see it as townie.

RR tossing me together with Awaclus as "scummy" looks like classical partner play.. say you're willing to lynch your partner, also put the person you really want to get lynched in there, hope it ends on the other guy.

Another possible case of "partner lumping" from RR:

"Is this going to be a repeat of the Ash thing? Cause that's where this looks like it's headed.

Or let's consider this for two seconds: this is a mock fight between two scum
PPE"

I basically expected Egor to not post in his personal QT, as town or scum. Not really surprised there, though unfortunate. Not sure what to expect from RR.

If he 'copies' Egor's answer it will be suspicious.

Again with RR on r707 "one is probably scum, or both". I did this so much on Ash v. Andrew in my first scum game (WoT).

"If EFHW is 'cleared,' I like a WW lynch I guess. But man, scum has been playing pretty well. No one really seems super scummy."

"scum has been playing pretty well" is such a scummy thing to say

[Witherweaver]

I'm obviously leaning RR.  I was planning to hold out reads to see what you guys would do, but I don't think much is coming from that.

Really, the only thing pointing towards Egor is that he didn't sound like he had a PR Day 1.  Otherwise, he's seemed like town him.  RR is clasically scummy, but it's generally hard for me to tell with him.

[Roadrunner7671]

This is pretty awful. I'll have to add 'scummy' to my list of metas. I don't really know what to say. Screaming 'I'm town' over and over again is boring and pointless. Making a case against Egor is pointless. If you're willing to take the 1 in whatever chance that Egor is actually a PR, be my guest. But he is a PR. He's a rolecop. And he's about to win.

[Roadrunner7671]

I guess I could blab on and on about how you suffer from conformation bias, but that seems pointless. I'll mine as well Vote: Egor. I have to sleep soon, I probably won't live through that. Egor will vote for me, you'll overthink it x10 then the game will be over.

[Witherweaver]

Confirming not scum, for what it's worth.

[Witherweaver]

Too bad I'm never scum in this situation.

[Witherweaver]

Really, the chance that we had 5 PR's is just 24.1%.  It's really not that unlikely. 

[Witherweaver]

It's also a bad argument, and it was a bad argument yesterday, and it's not why Silver got lynched.

[Roadrunner7671]

It's also a bad argument, and it was a bad argument yesterday, and it's not why Silver got lynched.

There is nothing I can do to be not-dead. The strength of my arguements are irrelevant. Here's what's relevant: I'm about to get lynched and we're about to lose. That's all that matters to me. I can't change that, I'll mine as well try, but meh. I can't change your mind. The game's over, WW. I think you and me both know it. At least, I know it.

[Witherweaver]

That's not convincing at all, and if you are town, you're not helping us.

[Roadrunner7671]

That's not convincing at all, and if you are town, you're not helping us.

I know it's not convincing. I'm pretty sure I said 'I can't change your mind.' And I can't help us, WW. I'd suggest rereading. Or trusting me, for once. But I can't help us. I don't know how.