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[Roadrunner7671]

I am okay with lynching both of you in either order as well. I can bet the game on a 1:20 chance. Are we going to get a better one?

[EFHW]

Correct way to calculate it

Apriori probability town receive Cop, Rolecop, Watcher and RB - 24/10000 (4 rolls in any order)
Apriori probability town receive Cop, Rolecop, Watcher and 2xRB - 12/100000 (12 ways to get all but cop on first 4 rolls)

Hence 20:1

you're right!

that makes things easy. vote: Egork

He is wrong, you were right in the first place. The only relevant numbers are the odds of getting the 1st 4 rolls without a 1, 2 or 3.

[EFHW]

So then Egork makes this mistake:

Well, ok. I am remaining PR (if WW tells truth). I can claim which if you want, but I am not sure it is needed unless there is counterclaim

Four PRs?

Well, this is the only possible number, as we already had cop (so it can't be 5) and rolecop (so it can't be 3)

Unfortunately I think this is neither a town nor a scum slip. 5 and 4 roles is identical from scum's PoV, so being scum wouldn't tell him that 5 are possible.

This is not a mistake. He still thought WW was a vig at this point.

[EFHW]

SS are you cool with getting lynched if Egor flips roleblocker?

well, in a world where Egork has already flipped RB I won't be very cool with lynching me, because it would lose the game.

but right now I think I'm fine enough with lynching both of us in either order.

This is nuts! Worst possible plan.

[yuma]

Vote Count 5.4

RR (1): EFHW
EgorK (1): ss

Not Voting: (3) RR, WW, EgorK


With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

Day5 will last 7 days and will end January 30 at 11:59 forum time.

[EFHW]

Uhm and we actually just play that setup guaranteed. The second RB doesn't add shots to town, so we have 11 shots either way.

cop would be the last role picked.
We had 12 shots.

[yuma]

Oh, watcher. Then we has 11 shots no matter what. I need rule clarification then - suppose there are 2 roleblockers and 1 shot left. Whose action go through if anyones?

- If the game progresses to a point where at night more actions are being performed than shots available the night action resolution will prioritize which actions are used and which are not.

Following that roles that occur simultaneously will be randomized as to which ones are successful and which ones fail

[EFHW]

Uhm and we actually just play that setup guaranteed. The second RB doesn't add shots to town, so we have 11 shots either way.

cop would be the last role picked.
We had 12 shots?

We did have 11, just not for the reasons you said. 13 shots for the first 4 roles, -2 bc the 5th was a 1.

[silverspawn]

This is not a mistake. He still thought WW was a vig at this point.

Ah, that's right. So he thought 5 was impossible. But that's not dependent on his alignment

[EFHW]

First, scum theoretically can repeat strongman overnight. They could have just finished cycle

Second, where from that 25% comes from? By my calculation chance of ss being rb strictly from math is 1/21 (a little bit under 5%). What stops me from instavoting is that I do not understand why he'd do that

  JOAT powers used by XP or Awaclus  would have reset when they died. The only way the cycle would be finished is if this last scum was the only one who used a JOAT, and he used one every night.

[EFHW]

Yes, actually, I do think he's faking it.  Well, not faking as much as exaggerating/overplaying it.  Go reread him and tell me what you think.

I could see scum!me overplaying it, but I can not see him claiming a PR for no reason. He wouldn't get lynched without claiming anything, so if you think that I'm scum, why did I claim?

Panic

[EFHW]

so assuming Egork is correct, we play this setup, right?

11 shots mafia gets: Shot Changer + Rolecop + Roleblocker. Total 8 shots

since we have 11 shots with S(cop) + S(Roleblocker) + S(Rolecop) + S(Watcher) = 1 + 3 + 4 + 3 = 11

Plus the universal JOAT of {Strongman, Ninja, Cop Immune, Bulletproof}

So scum does not have a Bus Driver. But they do have a roleblocker.

What this means is that it's easier for scum!Egork to fakeclaim RB, since he could just really be one, so he can't get caught in fakeclaims.

Roleblocker was XP who is dead. They have rolecop.

Seriously, is this for real? You do an excellent explanation of why it's 24%, and then proceed to make one mistake after another.  What's going on?

[silverspawn]

He is wrong, you were right in the first place. The only relevant numbers are the odds of getting the 1st 4 rolls without a 1, 2 or 3.

So, I think this is one of the cases where the maths is super important, so it's worth the time/effort to discuss it until we all agree..

I think my initial calculation was wrong, because the existence of a vig changes the odds of not having any {1,2,3} in the first 4 rolls. Sure, the vig could have been the fifth roll, but that's just the problem, it now needs to be the fifth roll. That decreases the probability.

I don't think Egork's math is correct either, I just said 'you are right' to simplify things and the discussion, because the result I calculated was very similar:

I think what we really need to calculate is this:


P(A given B) where

A := We have a setup of: {C, RC, W, RB, RB}
B := We have exactly 1 Cop, exactly 1 Watcher, exactly 1 Rolecop, either 1 or 2 Roleblockers, and no other PRs

In other words, A is the setup if both claims are true, and B is every setup that's still possible. We want to know how likely A is given that B is true.

P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) = P(A) / P(B) ≈ 23%

[silverspawn]

Roleblocker was XP who is dead. They have rolecop.

ah, cool.

... of course scum!me would have known this, so I'm an IC now!

[EgorK]

Please note my interaction with Teproc at the end of D4. I roleblocked him N2 and he confirms that someone tampered with his results that night. Of course it may be me capitalizing on XP actions, but I am not sure scum has any reason to RB Teproc that night (unless they rolecopped him N1 of course)

Also yes, I should vote silver even with 1:10 chances Vote: ss

PPE: 2

[silverspawn]

P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) = P(A) / P(B) ≈ 23%

err I mean ≈ 4,7% or something like that. Something a bit lower than 1/20. but the rest should work like that

[silverspawn]

(also I'm not 100% sure that my new calculation is right; if you convince me that it's wrong, I could vote someone other than Egork)

[EgorK]

He is wrong, you were right in the first place. The only relevant numbers are the odds of getting the 1st 4 rolls without a 1, 2 or 3.

So, I think this is one of the cases where the maths is super important, so it's worth the time/effort to discuss it until we all agree..

I think my initial calculation was wrong, because the existence of a vig changes the odds of not having any {1,2,3} in the first 4 rolls. Sure, the vig could have been the fifth roll, but that's just the problem, it now needs to be the fifth roll. That decreases the probability.

I don't think Egork's math is correct either, I just said 'you are right' to simplify things and the discussion, because the result I calculated was very similar:

I think what we really need to calculate is this:


P(A given B) where

A := We have a setup of: {C, RC, W, RB, RB}
B := We have exactly 1 Cop, exactly 1 Watcher, exactly 1 Rolecop, either 1 or 2 Roleblockers, and no other PRs

In other words, A is the setup if both claims are true, and B is every setup that's still possible. We want to know how likely A is given that B is true.

P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) = P(A) / P(B) ≈ 23%

Problem is P(B) is 24/10000 + 12/100000 (probability of having 1 RB and 2 RBs respectively), while P(A) = 12/100000. So P(A) / P(B) = 1 / 21

[silverspawn]

[...] 1 / 21

yes, that. okay, your calculation was right then, you just simplified it.

[silverspawn]

so we don't have to agree with lynching both of us if you (EFHW) think that's a bad idea. We can also just lynch Egork and then lynch RR in the unlikely case that Egork is town. That's actually even better.

But I'd rather lynch me -> Egork than RR -> ?

[EFHW]

(also I'm not 100% sure that my new calculation is right; if you convince me that it's wrong, I could vote someone other than Egork)

You are indeed both wrong. We don't want the chances of town getting these specific roles. We want the chances of there being 5 PRs.

And we don't have a vig!!!!!

[EFHW]

so we don't have to agree with lynching both of us if you (EFHW) think that's a bad idea. We can also just lynch Egork and then lynch RR in the unlikely case that Egork is town. That's actually even better.

But I'd rather lynch me -> Egork than RR -> ?

I'm not lynching EgorK.  I have zero support for thinking he is scum.  You are looking better,  though, so I might go along with WW.

[EFHW]

Meaning WW's plan.

[EFHW]

Except it seems more likely that you are sleep deprived rather than faking.

I still think that I have given enough cover to a non RR scum to support an RR lynch,  but that isn't happening.

[EgorK]

(also I'm not 100% sure that my new calculation is right; if you convince me that it's wrong, I could vote someone other than Egork)

You are indeed both wrong. We don't want the chances of town getting these specific roles. We want the chances of there being 5 PRs.

And we don't have a vig!!!!!

No, we are not. There is exactly 2 setups possible, and the question is what are probabilities they were generated with