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[Roadrunner7671]

I looked back, and I agree his switch from Awaclus to Egork is scummy.

PPE: I don't think scum would bother with an elaborate, poorly executed fakeclaim that only has a 25% chance of being true.

non-RR scum would be jumping on the RR wagon.

Voting for RR is scummy.

[Roadrunner7671]

Okay. I realize that by not making a case on someone else I'm sorta dooming myself, but after my Hydrad mislynch I don't want to be responsible for another one. And everyone has been pretty towny.

[Witherweaver]

I looked back, and I agree his switch from Awaclus to Egork is scummy.

PPE: I don't think scum would bother with an elaborate, poorly executed fakeclaim that only has a 25% chance of being true.

non-RR scum would be jumping on the RR wagon.

What if you considered yourself basically sure to get lynched anyway?  And, you wouldn't have known what PR Egor had, so you may have had to claim something in case of Tracking/Watching.

[EFHW]

I looked back, and I agree his switch from Awaclus to Egork is scummy.

PPE: I don't think scum would bother with an elaborate, poorly executed fakeclaim that only has a 25% chance of being true.

non-RR scum would be jumping on the RR wagon.

especially if they are hoping I'll be mislynched next as consequence for my error.

[EFHW]

I looked back, and I agree his switch from Awaclus to Egork is scummy.

PPE: I don't think scum would bother with an elaborate, poorly executed fakeclaim that only has a 25% chance of being true.

non-RR scum would be jumping on the RR wagon.

What if you considered yourself basically sure to get lynched anyway?  And, you wouldn't have known what PR Egor had, so you may have had to claim something in case of Tracking/Watching.

Oh, right that is why silver says he claimed. Probably shot changer. Teproc claimed a PR and was believable, so he would be a good target for shot changer.

[EFHW]

But I wouldn't claim until someone said they saw me.

[EgorK]

First, scum theoretically can repeat strongman overnight. They could have just finished cycle

Second, where from that 25% comes from? By my calculation chance of ss being rb strictly from math is 1/21 (a little bit under 5%). What stops me from instavoting is that I do not understand why he'd do that

[silverspawn]

First, scum theoretically can repeat strongman overnight. They could have just finished cycle

Second, where from that 25% comes from? By my calculation chance of ss being rb strictly from math is 1/21 (a little bit under 5%). What stops me from instavoting is that I do not understand why he'd do that

ahm it doesn't make sense to calculate the exact chance of me being a RB. that's like if we all get a random number between 1 and 100 in addition to our role and I tell you that mine is 47 and you say that that's only 1% so I must be lying

You could have claimed any role (and so could I) so what matters is how likely any fifth role is to exist. The only chance for that is if this happened:

5. If town receives no 1, 2 or 3s (Cop, Vig, JK) in its first four rolls then the town will receive an extra fifth roll. However, this additional roll will bring in zero additional shots for town.

And this happens exactly if all the first 4 numbers were one of {4,5,6,7,8,9,10}. It's 70% for a random roll to be one of those numbers, so the chance to have 4 in a row is 70%^4 ≈ 24%

[silverspawn]

Yes, actually, I do think he's faking it.  Well, not faking as much as exaggerating/overplaying it.  Go reread him and tell me what you think.

I could see scum!me overplaying it, but I can not see him claiming a PR for no reason. He wouldn't get lynched without claiming anything, so if you think that I'm scum, why did I claim?

[silverspawn]

and again 25% isn't a lot, so I'm not sure if it's crazy for any of us to not auto lynch Egork. I've to reread his claim

[silverspawn]

so assuming Egork is correct, we play this setup, right?

11 shots mafia gets: Shot Changer + Rolecop + Roleblocker. Total 8 shots

since we have 11 shots with S(cop) + S(Roleblocker) + S(Rolecop) + S(Watcher) = 1 + 3 + 4 + 3 = 11

Plus the universal JOAT of {Strongman, Ninja, Cop Immune, Bulletproof}

So scum does not have a Bus Driver. But they do have a roleblocker.

What this means is that it's easier for scum!Egork to fakeclaim RB, since he could just really be one, so he can't get caught in fakeclaims.

[silverspawn]

Uhm and we actually just play that setup guaranteed. The second RB doesn't add shots to town, so we have 11 shots either way.

[silverspawn]

So then Egork makes this mistake:

Well, ok. I am remaining PR (if WW tells truth). I can claim which if you want, but I am not sure it is needed unless there is counterclaim

Four PRs?

Well, this is the only possible number, as we already had cop (so it can't be 5) and rolecop (so it can't be 3)

Unfortunately I think this is neither a town nor a scum slip. 5 and 4 roles is identical from scum's PoV, so being scum wouldn't tell him that 5 are possible.

[EgorK]

Wasn't Teproc tracker?

[EgorK]

Oh, watcher. Then we has 11 shots no matter what. I need rule clarification then - suppose there are 2 roleblockers and 1 shot left. Whose action go through if anyones?

[EgorK]

Correct way to calculate it

Apriori probability town receive Cop, Rolecop, Watcher and RB - 24/10000 (4 rolls in any order)
Apriori probability town receive Cop, Rolecop, Watcher and 2xRB - 12/100000 (12 ways to get all but cop on first 4 rolls)

Hence 20:1

[EgorK]

We should also discount apriori probability of 4 PRs by apriori chance you are scum and 5PRs by chance you are town. Based on my reads that would be 1/3 and 2/3 (if I am generous), so actual aposteriori chances are more like 1:10

[EgorK]

SS voting history:

D1:
RR (RVS)
WW

D2:
ash

D3:

D4:
Awaclus
EgorK (L-1, no announcement)
Unvotes

That's it

[Roadrunner7671]

I can see where both of you are coming from, but are you trying to potentially get each other lynched? Should everyone else start picking sides?

[Roadrunner7671]

so assuming Egork is correct, we play this setup, right?

11 shots mafia gets: Shot Changer + Rolecop + Roleblocker. Total 8 shots

since we have 11 shots with S(cop) + S(Roleblocker) + S(Rolecop) + S(Watcher) = 1 + 3 + 4 + 3 = 11

Plus the universal JOAT of {Strongman, Ninja, Cop Immune, Bulletproof}

So scum does not have a Bus Driver. But they do have a roleblocker.

What this means is that it's easier for scum!Egork to fakeclaim RB, since he could just really be one, so he can't get caught in fakeclaims.

Xerxes was the scum roleblocker. If you're right, scum still has a rolecop left.

[silverspawn]

Correct way to calculate it

Apriori probability town receive Cop, Rolecop, Watcher and RB - 24/10000 (4 rolls in any order)
Apriori probability town receive Cop, Rolecop, Watcher and 2xRB - 12/100000 (12 ways to get all but cop on first 4 rolls)

Hence 20:1

you're right!

that makes things easy. vote: Egork

[silverspawn]

There is absolutely no way that a read will make me vote against 19:1 odds so my vote is set until Egork is lynched.

Not to mention that I had town reads on RR and WW anyway.

[Roadrunner7671]

Okay, I'm not sure if I like what's happening, but 19:1 odds are pretty good. And WW's plan looks better: lynch one today, the other tomorrow.

[Roadrunner7671]

SS are you cool with getting lynched if Egor flips roleblocker?

[silverspawn]

SS are you cool with getting lynched if Egor flips roleblocker?

well, in a world where Egork has already flipped RB I won't be very cool with lynching me, because it would lose the game.

but right now I think I'm fine enough with lynching both of us in either order.