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Author Topic: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)  (Read 113372 times)

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EFHW

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #925 on: January 24, 2016, 01:35:51 pm »

but it prob is RR or you just based on PoE. Unless Egork is lying after all

Please articulate the scenarios where EgorK is lying.

he's a tracker and saw me targeting Teproc. Then he's lying.

well, not really.

vote: eg... well no because I'm pretty sure you're town.

sure so, as you prob inferred i'm a PR and targeted Teproc. but that's all I'll say until you claim.

These two quotes seem to directly contradict each other.

PPE: Do you need to wait for EgorK to claim? Maybe we want him to be able to catch you in a lie, and if you think he is town then you don't expect to catch him in one.
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EFHW

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #926 on: January 24, 2016, 01:37:17 pm »

I would prefer for silver to claim before EgorK.
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #927 on: January 24, 2016, 01:40:23 pm »

but with what you just said you removed the remaining odds of Egork claiming one of {1,2,3} which would out him as scum so claiming order doesn't really matter anymore (ofc I ruined the primary chance by claiming PR for no reason...)

so there are 2 cases, egork is lying or egork is not lying

a) means the fifth PR came to pass in the way you described. that's 70%^4 = 24%, which is not very high
b) means the entire claim is made up. is there any reason to believe that this isn't the case?

EFHW

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #928 on: January 24, 2016, 01:41:19 pm »

Wait a minute. Even though she probably isn't, let's assume EFHW is scum. She'd need to save her NK for Egor, but who does she need to get lynched? Roadrunner! Most people think I'm pretty towny and if she made it to LyLo with Roadrunner then Roadrunner would go after her because she had been going after Roadrunner or something like that. None of us really know Roadrunner's thought process. But EFHW is gettibg scummier to me, I don't know about you guys. Of course, if I'm wrong and EFHW gets lynched, everyone kills me tomorrow and town loses. So I'm not going to take a strong standpoint on this, I jut want to make this observation.

You don't get lynched for being wrong.  And my suspecting you doesn't make me scummy.  I have reasons for my suspicions, and you just give me more OMGUS which encourages me further.
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #929 on: January 24, 2016, 01:43:29 pm »

These two quotes seem to directly contradict each other.
no they pretty much say the same thing

PPE: Do you need to wait for EgorK to claim? Maybe we want him to be able to catch you in a lie, and if you think he is town then you don't expect to catch him in one.

that won't happen, but... sure why not.

I'm a Roleblocker

I didn't use my power N1.
I didn't use my power N2
I didn't use my power N3.
I targeted Teproc N4.

I didn't remember/read/something that he claimed a PR, and he's scary as scum so... meep.

silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #930 on: January 24, 2016, 01:44:25 pm »

like I said I didn't play very good...

EFHW

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #931 on: January 24, 2016, 01:44:38 pm »

b) means the entire claim is made up. is there any reason to believe that this isn't the case?

His claim or yours?  Pretty symmetrical situation here.

You did have a chance of catching him in a lie if he picked Cop, Vig or JK as his fakeclaim, but not now.  And your claim is more suspicious than his, given the way it is coming out.  So I think you should claim first.

PPE: I see you have claimed.
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EFHW

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #932 on: January 24, 2016, 01:48:04 pm »

like I said I didn't play very good...

I would have been suspicious if you said you used your role nights 1-3 given how fuzzy you are about this game.  Teproc had to be the towniest person here, but I also had moments of suspecting him.  Did he seem the scummiest of everyone?  It's the nk you would want to block.
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EFHW

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #933 on: January 24, 2016, 01:50:12 pm »

These two quotes seem to directly contradict each other.
no they pretty much say the same thing

I don't see how ...
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #934 on: January 24, 2016, 01:53:52 pm »

Spoiler tags are not allowed. So the last scum is a cop or a bus driver or something bad for us, right?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #935 on: January 24, 2016, 02:06:39 pm »

Um, don't we have two lynches left?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #936 on: January 24, 2016, 02:09:23 pm »

Spoiler tags are not allowed. So the last scum is a cop or a bus driver or something bad for us, right?

I don't actually think it matters.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #937 on: January 24, 2016, 02:10:15 pm »

Egor go ahead and full claim.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #938 on: January 24, 2016, 02:10:31 pm »

Spoiler tags are not allowed. So the last scum is a cop or a bus driver or something bad for us, right?

I don't actually think it matters.
It's was off putting. Does he expect that scum won't click on the spoiler tag?
PPE
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #939 on: January 24, 2016, 02:10:43 pm »

Teproc had to be the towniest person here

There was this game I modded, where Teproc was the towniest player ever and also scum, and everyone in the speccy expected him to be town or win as scum, and since then I'm paranoid of towny!teproc

EFHW

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #940 on: January 24, 2016, 02:12:53 pm »

Spoiler tags are not allowed. So the last scum is a cop or a bus driver or something bad for us, right?

If EgorK is tracker or rolecop, then yes, scum have bus driver.  If he is something bringing in 3 shots then scum have rolecop.

I don't think either of those can really do us much harm at this point.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #941 on: January 24, 2016, 02:14:27 pm »

Spoiler tags are not allowed. So the last scum is a cop or a bus driver or something bad for us, right?

If EgorK is tracker or rolecop, then yes, scum have bus driver.  If he is something bringing in 3 shots then scum have rolecop.

I don't think either of those can really do us much harm at this point.
I think a bus driver could screw with us a little.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #942 on: January 24, 2016, 02:16:18 pm »

It doesn't even matter what the PR is. One of Egor/SS is 100% scum, and we have two lynches left.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #943 on: January 24, 2016, 02:19:42 pm »

It doesn't even matter what the PR is. One of Egor/SS is 100% scum, and we have two lynches left.
What do you suggest? Like, lynch SS today and Egor tomorrow? But didn't EFHW say something about how there could be five PRs?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #944 on: January 24, 2016, 02:20:52 pm »

It doesn't even matter what the PR is. One of Egor/SS is 100% scum, and we have two lynches left.
What do you suggest? Like, lynch SS today and Egor tomorrow? But didn't EFHW say something about how there could be five PRs?

Go read the setup and tell me what you think.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #945 on: January 24, 2016, 02:22:06 pm »

Ah okay maybe it is possible. 

Quote
If town receives no 1, 2 or 3s (Cop, Vig, JK) in its first four rolls then the town will receive an extra fifth roll. However, this additional roll will bring in zero additional shots for town. If a 1, 2, or 3 is rolled for the fifth shot, 2 shots will be removed from the town total.
Example4: Role: 6, 4, 4, 10 extra roll is 9 = BG (3), RB (3), RB (3), Shot Changer (2) + extra roll: 9 = Rolecop (0) for a total of 11 shots.
Example5: Role: 4, 6, 5, 10 extra roll is 2 = RB (3), BG (3), Watcher (3), Shot Changer (2) + extra roll: 2 = Vig (-2) for a total of 9 shots.


So the fifth roll could have been Cop. 

At any rate, Egor should full claim. 
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #946 on: January 24, 2016, 02:23:06 pm »

Ah okay maybe it is possible. 

Quote
If town receives no 1, 2 or 3s (Cop, Vig, JK) in its first four rolls then the town will receive an extra fifth roll. However, this additional roll will bring in zero additional shots for town. If a 1, 2, or 3 is rolled for the fifth shot, 2 shots will be removed from the town total.
Example4: Role: 6, 4, 4, 10 extra roll is 9 = BG (3), RB (3), RB (3), Shot Changer (2) + extra roll: 9 = Rolecop (0) for a total of 11 shots.
Example5: Role: 4, 6, 5, 10 extra roll is 2 = RB (3), BG (3), Watcher (3), Shot Changer (2) + extra roll: 2 = Vig (-2) for a total of 9 shots.


So the fifth roll could have been Cop. 

At any rate, Egor should full claim.
So there could be a fifth role?
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #947 on: January 24, 2016, 02:25:05 pm »

Ah okay maybe it is possible.

that's what I just mathed out above. 25% is meh.

Roadrunner7671

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #948 on: January 24, 2016, 02:25:47 pm »

Voting for Egor or SS today seems sort of reasonable.
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EFHW

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Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day5)
« Reply #949 on: January 24, 2016, 02:27:10 pm »

Ah okay maybe it is possible. 

Quote
If town receives no 1, 2 or 3s (Cop, Vig, JK) in its first four rolls then the town will receive an extra fifth roll. However, this additional roll will bring in zero additional shots for town. If a 1, 2, or 3 is rolled for the fifth shot, 2 shots will be removed from the town total.
Example4: Role: 6, 4, 4, 10 extra roll is 9 = BG (3), RB (3), RB (3), Shot Changer (2) + extra roll: 9 = Rolecop (0) for a total of 11 shots.
Example5: Role: 4, 6, 5, 10 extra roll is 2 = RB (3), BG (3), Watcher (3), Shot Changer (2) + extra roll: 2 = Vig (-2) for a total of 9 shots.


So the fifth roll could have been Cop. 

At any rate, Egor should full claim.

Since it is possible, that means it is not a 100% choice between EgorK and silver today.  RR is still very much a good lynch.  Really.
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