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[2.71828.....]

Busy week at work. Probably can't do much until Saturday.

[Ampharos]

Vote: faust

Rational:

Day one went WAYYYY too long and I ended up getting talked out of everything I was working on by the end of the day, thus my vote not being on anyone.  There was too much time for people to talk me out of my position.  I'm going back to one of the loose ends that I worked on a lot - I'm not convinced faust is town.

(I initially wanted to vote Teproc here, but his debate about Yuma using his shot or not and the end of Day 1 has won me over for now).

Also, very interested to hear from Yuma.

[faust]

So... the kill has no identifiable flavor, so I'm guessing yuma did not shoot? That's anti-town. yuma gets away with quite a lot of anti-town behaviour. Unfortunately, I am not convinced he is scum.

[Teproc]

So... the kill has no identifiable flavor, so I'm guessing yuma did not shoot? That's anti-town. yuma gets away with quite a lot of anti-town behaviour. Unfortunately, I am not convinced he is scum.

Why is anti-town for yuma not to shoot here ?

[faust]

vote: faust

So I'm guessing, by your previous posts, that this vote is because I am a null read of silver, I would make sense as a night kill, and I was on two town wagons... is that about right?

[faust]

So... the kill has no identifiable flavor, so I'm guessing yuma did not shoot? That's anti-town. yuma gets away with quite a lot of anti-town behaviour. Unfortunately, I am not convinced he is scum.

Why is anti-town for yuma not to shoot here ?

I've been over why I thought yuma should shoot. This and his end-of-D1 behaviour is only really excusable if he was going to shoot and tried to make scum think he wouldn't.

[faust]

Vote: yuma. I do not believe about not getting PPE, sorry

Explain to me why, in your scenario, scum!yuma fakes a derphammer ?

To get lynch through? As we would say as always "scum would never do this". Yuma would

Is an Awaclus lynch that hard to push through that he would have needed that ?

Well, he did prevent Awaclus from claiming.

[Haddock]

Except faust makes no sense as an Nk here. Scum were never going to shoot on-wagon.

[faust]

Vote: faust

Rational:

Day one went WAYYYY too long and I ended up getting talked out of everything I was working on by the end of the day, thus my vote not being on anyone.  There was too much time for people to talk me out of my position.  I'm going back to one of the loose ends that I worked on a lot - I'm not convinced faust is town.

(I initially wanted to vote Teproc here, but his debate about Yuma using his shot or not and the end of Day 1 has won me over for now).

Also, very interested to hear from Yuma.

I think your reads should take into account the new information we have. Going back to your D1 reads without considering how they fit with the flips and wagons we have is bad.

[Haddock]

I think your reads should take into account the new information we have. Going back to your D1 reads without considering how they fit with the flips and wagons we have is bad.

This is true.  I'm also a bit guilty of this, but will be having a proper look and a rethink soon.

[Teproc]

vote: faust

So I'm guessing, by your previous posts, that this vote is because I am a null read of silver, I would make sense as a night kill, and I was on two town wagons... is that about right?

All of those play a role, yes. I think it's also very uncharacterstic of town!faust to be a mislynch of that type (I'm currently scouring past games to see if my instinct is right on that one). I'm also looking at day 1 wagons and seeing a bunch on wagons on confirmed town or people I feel strongly are town. Leads me to look for scum in people sitting on the sidelines, happy to let town bury itself. You fit that bill. Also, not only were you not shot, I wasn't either. I'm alwyas surprised not to be NKed, and I was defaulting to town on you after all.

So, a bunch of small things. None of them are individually that convincing, but they add up.

Re : yuma being anti-town. Right, I know you were in favor of him shooting, but many were not... given that he ended up not announcing anything, I expected him not to shoot... because I think it's right not to I suppose. But I'm surprised you're arguing that the not-shooting part is anti-town, as opposed to the "you're mean, I'm refusing to cooperate" part.

[iguanaiguana]

People I suspect coming out of D1:

Faust, e, Yuma, Roadrunner, EgorK, Teproc

Faust played very differently yesterday. I didn't see him generate a lot of ideas. I just saw him sheeping a lot of other players, like he was just trying to find a reason to get on the wagon that already had most people. Then toward the end of the day he started recording our voting history and pouring back over the day. Thing is, everything he did is stuff that scum could do without much risk if the consensus is that people are not going to vote for you anyway.

Then there's the NK. My thinking was that scum would target whoever was doing the most to help town. Based on reputation, that would be Faust. Based on helpfulness during this actual game, maybe Teproc. So that makes me suspect both of them a little bit, but Faust a little more because of what I already said.

But what worries me now is that we are hunting for scum among a lot of very towny, active players. And that means muddy waters.

Vote: Faust

PPE: looks like some of this is already discussed

[Haddock]

People I suspect coming out of D1:

Faust, e, Yuma, Roadrunner, EgorK, Teproc

Faust played very differently yesterday. I didn't see him generate a lot of ideas. I just saw him sheeping a lot of other players, like he was just trying to find a reason to get on the wagon that already had most people. Then toward the end of the day he started recording our voting history and pouring back over the day. Thing is, everything he did is stuff that scum could do without much risk if the consensus is that people are not going to vote for you anyway.

Then there's the NK. My thinking was that scum would target whoever was doing the most to help town. Based on reputation, that would be Faust. Based on helpfulness during this actual game, maybe Teproc. So that makes me suspect both of them a little bit, but Faust a little more because of what I already said.

But what worries me now is that we are hunting for scum among a lot of very towny, active players. And that means muddy waters.

Vote: Faust

PPE: looks like some of this is already discussed

I'll look at the faust case later.

For now, I say again, I really really don't think that Faust not being an NK target is a good reason to find him scummy here.
3 reasons:
1) There's almost certainly scum on the Awa wagon, they want to shoot off the wagon so there are more potential mislynches.
2) Everyone's saying that faust wasn't scumhunting as well as normal yesterday.  You can't really say that and simultaneously say "scum would have shot him because he's an amazing scumhunter".
3) Scum could probably predict that this would happen.

[Haddock]

Inb4 "you're defending faust again, just like Switch!" (grr).

I'm not saying there isn't a case against him, maybe there is, I don't know.  But him not being the NK target is not a good component in such a case.

[Teproc]

@Haddock : What makes you so convinced there's scum on the Awaclus wagon ? I mean, statistically yeah, but more than that ?

Even assuming the Awaclus was driven by scum, do ou really find that scum thinks of NKs in that way ? You have been scum once I think, did "off/on wagon" enter the NK discussion there ?

[faust]

But I'm surprised you're arguing that the not-shooting part is anti-town, as opposed to the "you're mean, I'm refusing to cooperate" part.

Well, as I said, it would have been fine as a ploy to make scum think yuma would not shoot. So the anti-town-ness of "you're mean, I'm refusing to cooperate" is contingent on shooting or not shooting.

[Haddock]

@Haddock : What makes you so convinced there's scum on the Awaclus wagon ? I mean, statistically yeah, but more than that ?

Even assuming the Awaclus was driven by scum, do ou really find that scum thinks of NKs in that way ? You have been scum once I think, did "off/on wagon" enter the NK discussion there ?

Well statistics. And, well, its a mislynch. Scum like mislynches. It just seems really likely to me.

In my game yes we definitely considered on versus off-wagon. As a primary concern. Also true in a couple of scum Qts I have read.

[Haddock]

I didnt get a PPE there, btw. So its not completely foolproof.

[faust]

People I suspect coming out of D1:

Faust, e, Yuma, Roadrunner, EgorK, Teproc

Faust played very differently yesterday. I didn't see him generate a lot of ideas. I just saw him sheeping a lot of other players, like he was just trying to find a reason to get on the wagon that already had most people. Then toward the end of the day he started recording our voting history and pouring back over the day. Thing is, everything he did is stuff that scum could do without much risk if the consensus is that people are not going to vote for you anyway.

Then there's the NK. My thinking was that scum would target whoever was doing the most to help town. Based on reputation, that would be Faust. Based on helpfulness during this actual game, maybe Teproc. So that makes me suspect both of them a little bit, but Faust a little more because of what I already said.

But what worries me now is that we are hunting for scum among a lot of very towny, active players. And that means muddy waters.

Vote: Faust

PPE: looks like some of this is already discussed

Haddock already said a lot of what I would say to this. Can you provide examples of me sheeping people? Also, if you wish to go for players who are not activ,e I'm sure there are lots of players who fit that description better than me.

[faust]

It's interesting that there is not more attention on e. I mean, before the Awaclus wagon happened, it looked like e was going to be lynched. The question whether or not he is scum seems like the important thing to figure out today. I definitely prefer D1 wagon analysis to WIFOMy arguments about why scum would or wouldn't shoot people.

[Teproc]

@Haddock : What makes you so convinced there's scum on the Awaclus wagon ? I mean, statistically yeah, but more than that ?

Even assuming the Awaclus was driven by scum, do ou really find that scum thinks of NKs in that way ? You have been scum once I think, did "off/on wagon" enter the NK discussion there ?

Well statistics. And, well, its a mislynch. Scum like mislynches. It just seems really likely to me.

In my game yes we definitely considered on versus off-wagon. As a primary concern. Also true in a couple of scum Qts I have read.

Huh. Ok.

Scum likes mislynches, but they also like letting town do all the dirty work themselves.

PPE (Haddock not getting a PPE) : I'm very curious about that, because it's never happened to me. Did you respond via email or from the thread page ?

[Teproc]

It's interesting that there is not more attention on e. I mean, before the Awaclus wagon happened, it looked like e was going to be lynched. The question whether or not he is scum seems like the important thing to figure out today. I definitely prefer D1 wagon analysis to WIFOMy arguments about why scum would or wouldn't shoot people.

I guess I didn't mention it, but the way the Awaclus wagon happened makes me lean townier on e. The rapidity at which it developped makes me think it was town-driven at that point.

[iguanaiguana]

People I suspect coming out of D1:

Faust, e, Yuma, Roadrunner, EgorK, Teproc

Faust played very differently yesterday. I didn't see him generate a lot of ideas. I just saw him sheeping a lot of other players, like he was just trying to find a reason to get on the wagon that already had most people. Then toward the end of the day he started recording our voting history and pouring back over the day. Thing is, everything he did is stuff that scum could do without much risk if the consensus is that people are not going to vote for you anyway.

Then there's the NK. My thinking was that scum would target whoever was doing the most to help town. Based on reputation, that would be Faust. Based on helpfulness during this actual game, maybe Teproc. So that makes me suspect both of them a little bit, but Faust a little more because of what I already said.

But what worries me now is that we are hunting for scum among a lot of very towny, active players. And that means muddy waters.

Vote: Faust

PPE: looks like some of this is already discussed

Haddock already said a lot of what I would say to this. Can you provide examples of me sheeping people? Also, if you wish to go for players who are not activ,e I'm sure there are lots of players who fit that description better than me.

Can you provide a single example of you voting for someone on your own initiative in this game?

On reasoning through the NK: That is not my primary motivation for voting Faust. Like  I said, if that were my only reasoning, I would be voting Teproc.

Yesterday, Faust flew under the radar and basically told us all that we wouldn't be lynching him, and no one batted an eyelash. The only person who tried to vote for him (IIRC, I could be wrong) was Ampharos. Why all the resistance? So there's another reason he could be scum.

[Haddock]

@Haddock : What makes you so convinced there's scum on the Awaclus wagon ? I mean, statistically yeah, but more than that ?

Even assuming the Awaclus was driven by scum, do ou really find that scum thinks of NKs in that way ? You have been scum once I think, did "off/on wagon" enter the NK discussion there ?

Well statistics. And, well, its a mislynch. Scum like mislynches. It just seems really likely to me.

In my game yes we definitely considered on versus off-wagon. As a primary concern. Also true in a couple of scum Qts I have read.

Huh. Ok.

Scum likes mislynches, but they also like letting town do all the dirty work themselves.

PPE (Haddock not getting a PPE) : I'm very curious about that, because it's never happened to me. Did you respond via email or from the thread page ?

Thread page. I'm on a tablet but I dont see why that would make a difference.

This probably isnt getting us anywhere. Im just saying, if I do end up voting faust, him not being NK will not be the reason.

Back to work for me. Will check in occasionally today.
PPE.

[Teproc]

Hello!

Thoughts on stuff ? Anything ?