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[silverspawn]

I have hope still then if SS is SK!

if Joseph is not the SK then it's you. stop acting so innocent.

[Hydrad]

I have hope still then if SS is SK!

if Joseph is not the SK then it's you. stop acting so innocent.

ah but you see I am innocent because I'm not the SK. so if you aren't either then we don't even need to battle yet since Joesph is the SK!

[Joseph2302]

I have hope still then if SS is SK!

Joesph come back and tell me if you were SK or not... I'm impatient.

Apparently I miscounted the first time and have already been hammered.

GG

[silverspawn]

I have hope still then if SS is SK!

if Joseph is not the SK then it's you. stop acting so innocent.

ah but you see I am innocent because I'm not the SK. so if you aren't either then we don't even need to battle yet since Joesph is the SK!

he probably is, otherwise I think he would talk more.

but still. it feels like you want to set up my mislynch tomorrow.

[silverspawn]

or should I say 'felt' since that was a confession? I think?

[Haddock]

or should I say 'felt' since that was a confession? I think?

Yeah I dont know, was it?

[Hydrad]

I have hope still then if SS is SK!

if Joseph is not the SK then it's you. stop acting so innocent.

ah but you see I am innocent because I'm not the SK. so if you aren't either then we don't even need to battle yet since Joesph is the SK!

he probably is, otherwise I think he would talk more.

but still. it feels like you want to set up my mislynch tomorrow.

well to be fair If Joesph wasn't the SK I kinda do want to setup your lynch tomorrow. whether I'm town or SK as thats the only way I win.

But ya I think Joesph confessed so were good now?

[Haddock]

Flippity Flippity.

[Joseph2302]

Flippity Flippity.

I feel like I wasn't clear enough before.

I'm the SK.

[Haddock]

Flippity Flippity.

I feel like I wasn't clear enough before.

I'm the SK.

Epic. Yeah we were'nt entirely sure. Thanks for clarifying.

Sincerely, well played, I think if we hadnt been lucky enought to clear out the mafia early we might have struggled.

[Joseph2302]

Flippity Flippity.

I feel like I wasn't clear enough before.

I'm the SK.

Epic. Yeah we were'nt entirely sure. Thanks for clarifying.

Sincerely, well played, I think if we hadnt been lucky enought to clear out the mafia early we might have struggled.

Also, I knew I was behind in the game, so was relying on some faust miskills to give me a chance.

[faust]

Flippity Flippity.

I feel like I wasn't clear enough before.

I'm the SK.

Epic. Yeah we were'nt entirely sure. Thanks for clarifying.

Sincerely, well played, I think if we hadnt been lucky enought to clear out the mafia early we might have struggled.

Also, I knew I was behind in the game, so was relying on some faust miskills to give me a chance.

Well, there was really no reason for me to shoot after the mafia was gone.

[faust]

I wonder, what was the flavor for the SK?

[Haddock]

No spoilers! Let EFHW do it.

[silverspawn]

No spoilers! Let EFHW do it.

yeah

[EFHW]

Vote Count 4.final

Joseph (3): faust, Hydrad, silverspawn

not voting (2): Joseph, Haddock

With 5 alive, it took 3 to lynch.

Tonks (aka Joseph) was really Dolores Umbridge, the Serial Killer!   She wasn't a Death Eater, but boy was she evil!  Guess she finally just snapped when the centaurs attacked her, and decided to kill everyone she could.

THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX WINS!!

[gkrieg13]

Well that was one of the first games I made it past D1 as scum.  Awaclus dying made it pretty hard for me the next day though

[Haddock]

Yeah that was a tough game for you guys, I feel like after one good lynch happened it basically snowballed.

Fwiw, I think mvp candidates here are yuma, ss and faust.  But I wanna go through and look at everyone's reads to see their quality, id be really interested to know how on point various people were.

[faust]

Yeah that was a tough game for you guys, I feel like after one good lynch happened it basically snowballed.

Fwiw, I think mvp candidates here are yuma, ss and faust.  But I wanna go through and look at everyone's reads to see their quality, id be really interested to know how on point various people were.

During my reread, I noticed that silver's reads were pretty much spot on the whole game. I think that plus the fact that he believably presented himself as town in the end earn him the MVP. Though yuma gets an honorable mention for preventing two town deaths with a single night action.

[Haddock]

If thats what happened. Maybe mafia shot Joseph D1?

[Haddock]

I mean N1, of course. Fairly unlikely, I'll admit.

Speaking of which, ss Joseph and I should conclude this probability discussion.
At this point I'm entirely sure that I'm right, but want to convince you. I might have to dedicate a thread to it tomorrow.
Right now,  bed.

[silverspawn]

I mean N1, of course. Fairly unlikely, I'll admit.

Speaking of which, ss Joseph and I should conclude this probability discussion.
At this point I'm entirely sure that I'm right, but want to convince you. I might have to dedicate a thread to it tomorrow.
Right now,  bed.

right, I had written a post about that which I then didn't submit because faust said no 

But I saved it, and can post it now. Here is your post for context, and here is the example I'm referencing.


And if you still want to know the actual flaw in your argument - well, not every outcome you or I are listing is in fact equally likely. It would be equally likely if we had zero information about the flips, but since we know that heads has been flipped 9 times, this particular out:

HTHHHHHHHH

is much less likely than this

HHHHHHHHHH

because, if heads has been flipped 9+ of 10 times, then each individual flip is much more likely to have been heads, and therefore the second flip is much more likely to have been heads.

basically, it's the difference between 'what's the chance for 9 heads in 10 flips vs 10 heads?' (10-1) or 'we already flipped 9 heads; what's the chance that the tenth is also a head vs that it's a tails? (1-1)


You said you simulated it. What you simulated is probably "what's the odds of 2 P's and 1 K out of 3 letters looking only at those who have 2K's?' or something to that effect, thus making the same mistake as you did above.

What you should simulate is, you randomly set two letters to the results we already know, and randomize a result for the third one. Except then it is so simple that you don't need to simulate it anymore, because you can effectively take out the letters which you have already determined, and only have to look at one.

I know the feeling of getting your mind wrapped around such a problem and getting really confused with it, it happened to me before. It proves that you have an urge to understand stuff on a deep level. But in this case the result is just really simple.

[silverspawn]

If the above doesn't convince you, I'd say go for it and open a thread. But I think it will if you think deeply about it.

[iguanaiguana]

Good job town 

[Witherweaver]

Hooray!