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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #25 on: November 10, 2015, 08:26:40 pm »
+2

How often would you take a Scout if it came for free on every green card purchase, Duchess style?
Every. Single. Time.
There are no edge cases.
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Limetime

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #26 on: November 10, 2015, 08:32:35 pm »
0

I once played a game with scout, city, rats, butcher, herald. It was really fun ending with a city mega turn where I lost. The scouts were decent.
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jomini

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #27 on: November 15, 2015, 01:43:50 pm »
+1

Under "getting green" and "discard for benefit" I feel like you didn't mention the best synergies here: Warehouse/Dungeon. This seems way better than Storeroom, though still probably not actually viable.

You also don't mention Scout/Crossroads (jomini mentioned this too), which I feel like at least deserves a nod here. My opinion is that Scout/Crossroads is only useful in puzzles where you can assume you get perfect shuffle luck. The problem is that Scout is just as likely to hurt a Crossroads for your next hand as it is to help a Crossroads in your current hand.
Also there is problem that you would draw more from another crossroads, assuming that there is some support as pure scout-crossroads is worse than bm.

No. Xroads 1 draws you 3 (number of cards you search) * % green in deck. Xroads 2 draws you (3 + xroads 1) * % green.

For instance. if my deck is 33% green. Xroads 1 will draw me 1 card and Xroads 2 will draw me 1.33 cards for a total of + 2.33 cards at the price of two actions (the +3 being flat and non-scaling).

Scout/Xroads draws 4 * %green from the Scout's draw power and 7 * %green from the Xroads that is played next. Basically any card in the Scout search space draws twice.

With 33% green this works out to be 4/3 cards drawn by the Scout and then 7/3 being drawn by the crossroads for a total of 11/3 or 3.66 cards. This also takes one fewer action and lets you sort the top deck on hands with limited draw (so you can draw some more).

In general, if x is the percent green the two xroads in hand will draw 3x +(3+3x)x or 6x + 3x^2 while Scout/xroads will draw 11x. Scout/Xroads then draws more IFF:

11x >= 6x+3x^2
11 >= 6 + 3x
5/3 >= x

as 1 >= x >= 0 there should be no deck composition where Scout/Xroads hands are expected to draw less than Xroads x2.


Adam: Goons engines just churn points compared to much of anything else. With trashing, I can churn 9 VP per turn and attack you every turn. Piling down 8 provinces instead of 4 takes a lot longer with Smithy-BM variants Prince of Scouts is one of the slowest Goons engines, but Goons engines are just that good. BM is, much, much worse when it cannot start faltering and slowly drags it way across the 41 VP line.

Using Tr with the Scout/Xroads is to allow you greater flexibility. Ideally you want more Xroads than Scouts, but you run into problems that having hands with just Xroads lowers your draw potential. Tr gives you the choice if you track your deck of loading up on green first (Tr -> Scout), or drawing for more (Tr -> Xroads); Tr is also phenomenal at getting you value out of the green you draw (e.g. Tr/Baron/Xroads is almost good enough to play on its own, using Scout would make it a pretty decent-ish engine).

Pool prefers Scout when draw is still an issue, because Scout can let you use the discard (top deck a copper) and ensure more than cantrip draw if you see just two actions in 4 cards. Candlestick maker does a different function - coin and +buy, a much better comparison is with Vagrant or Pearl Diver. With Vagrant you can snap up greens and it is cantrip so it normally beats out Scout here. Pearl Diver, on the other hand, is only good when you have a low green amount. If you are trashing down with Counterfeit, Scout doesn't take too long before he draws an average of at least 1 card and 4 card top deck reordering is better than two card deck reordering.

Pile control sounds good, but if your opponent notices they can just snag VP a bit sooner and then you are carrying around a lot of space inefficient cars. Again, it isn't that Scout is often good, but that at times it is better than other stuff. Ramping up to the third pile needs at least two turns; during that time Scout has a small chance of swinging a single province (or colony) turn into a double.
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AdamH

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #28 on: November 15, 2015, 09:24:28 pm »
0

Adam: Goons engines just churn points compared to much of anything else. With trashing, I can churn 9 VP per turn and attack you every turn. Piling down 8 provinces instead of 4 takes a lot longer with Smithy-BM variants Prince of Scouts is one of the slowest Goons engines, but Goons engines are just that good. BM is, much, much worse when it cannot start faltering and slowly drags it way across the 41 VP line.

Using Tr with the Scout/Xroads is to allow you greater flexibility. Ideally you want more Xroads than Scouts, but you run into problems that having hands with just Xroads lowers your draw potential. Tr gives you the choice if you track your deck of loading up on green first (Tr -> Scout), or drawing for more (Tr -> Xroads); Tr is also phenomenal at getting you value out of the green you draw (e.g. Tr/Baron/Xroads is almost good enough to play on its own, using Scout would make it a pretty decent-ish engine).

Suffice it to say that I think you're overestimating these decks, but I can't really say because I don't know the climate of the games: It's difficult for me to talk about the Goons thing without knowing a whole kingdom (a kingdom with less than 10 cards is OK) but what would convince me is seeing that Goons engine beat BM with Goons when played properly.

The Crossroads deck with Baron, well that needs some treasure-trashing and probably another village to work (I don't think Throne Room cuts it unless you're pairing it with Scout as its only non-terminal).

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Elestan

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #29 on: November 15, 2015, 10:58:04 pm »
+9

FWIW, this is a revised Scout idea I came up with a while ago.  It plays like a backward Scrying Pool, but does what I think a Scout should conceptually be doing:  Clearing away the junk, so that a deck with a lot of green or purple is still playable.  Cost 4.

+1 Action

Reveal cards from your deck until you reveal four cards that are either Actions or Treasures.  Place the revealed Actions and Treasures on top of your deck in any order.  Put the other revealed cards in your hand.

« Last Edit: November 16, 2015, 12:41:05 am by Elestan »
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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #30 on: November 16, 2015, 04:56:57 am »
0

That's actually a pretty decent card, I like it, having it draw Curses as well is a big boon.
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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #31 on: November 16, 2015, 08:16:33 am »
+2

That's actually a pretty decent card, I like it, having it draw Curses as well is a big boon.
But it doesn't combo with Scout.
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Chris is me

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #32 on: November 16, 2015, 08:56:30 am »
0

How well does Advisor combo with Scout? Advisor decks choke on green, and even failing to hit green Scout rearranges your deck so you can make your Advisor draw a bit better. The main problem I see is that you'd almost never want a Scout instead of another Advisor.

As for the theory card, I think it's a bit broken. If you have under 4 junk cards in your deck, you get to rearrange your entire deck! At least discard the other revealed cards.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2015, 09:01:45 am by Chris is me »
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Elestan

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #33 on: November 16, 2015, 09:19:00 am »
+1

As for the theory card, I think it's a bit broken. If you have under 4 junk cards in your deck, you get to rearrange your entire deck! At least discard the other revealed cards.
No, if you have under 4 non-junk cards in your deck, you get to rearrange your entire deck.  To be more precise, you draw all the junk, and rearrange the 0-3 remaining non-junk cards on top of your deck.

I considered discarding the junk, and reducing the card's cost to 3, but drawing the junk makes the card situationally strong (mainly in the presence of strong copper trashing or DfB), and I think that's more interesting.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2015, 09:54:11 am by Elestan »
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A Ladder

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #34 on: November 16, 2015, 11:08:49 am »
+1

Cost 4.

+1 Action

Reveal cards from your deck until you reveal four cards that are either Actions or Treasures.  Place the revealed Actions and Treasures on top of your deck in any order.  Put the other revealed cards in your hand.


Hilariously, this makes it terrible with the dual victory cards of Intrigue.

faust

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #35 on: November 16, 2015, 11:35:33 am »
+2

How well does Advisor combo with Scout? Advisor decks choke on green, and even failing to hit green Scout rearranges your deck so you can make your Advisor draw a bit better. The main problem I see is that you'd almost never want a Scout instead of another Advisor.

Scout combos with Advisor: Now your opponent has to think about whether he makes you discard a Copper or a Scout!

Seriously though, this is a nombo. Advisor is already more likely to draw green than anything else. Green-heavy decks make Advisor awful. If you have green, you don't want Advisors; if you don't have green, you don't want Scout.
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jomini

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #36 on: November 16, 2015, 02:06:22 pm »
0

Adam: Goons engines just churn points compared to much of anything else. With trashing, I can churn 9 VP per turn and attack you every turn. Piling down 8 provinces instead of 4 takes a lot longer with Smithy-BM variants Prince of Scouts is one of the slowest Goons engines, but Goons engines are just that good. BM is, much, much worse when it cannot start faltering and slowly drags it way across the 41 VP line.

Using Tr with the Scout/Xroads is to allow you greater flexibility. Ideally you want more Xroads than Scouts, but you run into problems that having hands with just Xroads lowers your draw potential. Tr gives you the choice if you track your deck of loading up on green first (Tr -> Scout), or drawing for more (Tr -> Xroads); Tr is also phenomenal at getting you value out of the green you draw (e.g. Tr/Baron/Xroads is almost good enough to play on its own, using Scout would make it a pretty decent-ish engine).

Suffice it to say that I think you're overestimating these decks, but I can't really say because I don't know the climate of the games: It's difficult for me to talk about the Goons thing without knowing a whole kingdom (a kingdom with less than 10 cards is OK) but what would convince me is seeing that Goons engine beat BM with Goons when played properly.

The Crossroads deck with Baron, well that needs some treasure-trashing and probably another village to work (I don't think Throne Room cuts it unless you're pairing it with Scout as its only non-terminal).

What do you think is good BMGoons play against even the slowest and crappiest Goons engines?

With Prince of Scouts/Goons you will be attacked every turn after what T12? If you are doing BMGoons, that means the only way you can buy provinces is with Gold x2/Goons. It is a lot of turns to either get Gold density that high or hit those odds against turns when you have under 40% gold in deck. You need 8 turns with $8 from 3 cards, that is just an awful lot.
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AdamH

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #37 on: November 16, 2015, 02:40:43 pm »
+1

What do you think is good BMGoons play against even the slowest and crappiest Goons engines?

With Prince of Scouts/Goons you will be attacked every turn after what T12? If you are doing BMGoons, that means the only way you can buy provinces is with Gold x2/Goons. It is a lot of turns to either get Gold density that high or hit those odds against turns when you have under 40% gold in deck. You need 8 turns with $8 from 3 cards, that is just an awful lot.

Can I assume you're talking about a 3-card kingdom with Prince, Scout, and Goons? I mean, I assumed there would be some trashing here that help you out a lot, but OK.

But yeah in that kingdom, I believe the best strategy involves getting like three or four Goons at some point and then lots of Golds and Provinces after that without ever getting Prince or Scout. With no trashing, even this Prince of Scouts thing is going to have a hard time playing Goons every turn. Yeah it takes a while, but what is the Prince of Scouts thing doing? Does it aim for Double Goons turns? I don't see that being reliable at all. Actually, something this simple could potentially be simulated, though I may buy a couple more Goons as the BM+Goons player in reaction to this being my opponent's strategy. Like maybe a fifth in that case.

But what is the Goons "engine" player buying to get points? Treasures? That has to be better than more Scouts. So it's starting to look like a Big Money deck at this point anyways, just one that takes the worst possible route to double Goons turns. I just don't think it's good enough and now I think only a simulation would convince me that I'm wrong.

If you add in trashing then it's a different conversation. I guess you add Chapel? I dunno, I'm still not convinced it's better than BM+Goons although it's much harder to prove that.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #38 on: November 16, 2015, 02:45:55 pm »
+1

Adam, shouldn't you be at work?
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AdamH

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #39 on: November 16, 2015, 02:49:05 pm »
0

Mom! Stop bothering me! I can't be seen in public with you, it's too embarrassing!
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #40 on: November 16, 2015, 03:17:43 pm »
+1

Don't take that tone up with me unless you want soap for dinner, Mister!
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faust

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #41 on: November 16, 2015, 05:52:15 pm »
0

What do you think is good BMGoons play against even the slowest and crappiest Goons engines?

With Prince of Scouts/Goons you will be attacked every turn after what T12? If you are doing BMGoons, that means the only way you can buy provinces is with Gold x2/Goons. It is a lot of turns to either get Gold density that high or hit those odds against turns when you have under 40% gold in deck. You need 8 turns with $8 from 3 cards, that is just an awful lot.

Can I assume you're talking about a 3-card kingdom with Prince, Scout, and Goons? I mean, I assumed there would be some trashing here that help you out a lot, but OK.

But yeah in that kingdom, I believe the best strategy involves getting like three or four Goons at some point and then lots of Golds and Provinces after that without ever getting Prince or Scout. With no trashing, even this Prince of Scouts thing is going to have a hard time playing Goons every turn. Yeah it takes a while, but what is the Prince of Scouts thing doing? Does it aim for Double Goons turns? I don't see that being reliable at all. Actually, something this simple could potentially be simulated, though I may buy a couple more Goons as the BM+Goons player in reaction to this being my opponent's strategy. Like maybe a fifth in that case.

But what is the Goons "engine" player buying to get points? Treasures? That has to be better than more Scouts. So it's starting to look like a Big Money deck at this point anyways, just one that takes the worst possible route to double Goons turns. I just don't think it's good enough and now I think only a simulation would convince me that I'm wrong.

If you add in trashing then it's a different conversation. I guess you add Chapel? I dunno, I'm still not convinced it's better than BM+Goons although it's much harder to prove that.

An engine with a Princed Scout can buy up Duchies and Estates at a much lower opportunity cost though - you get to clean every hand you get. I don't think that's enough to beat Goons-BM without other support, but it is something to consider.
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jomini

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #42 on: November 16, 2015, 10:07:25 pm »
+2

What do you think is good BMGoons play against even the slowest and crappiest Goons engines?

With Prince of Scouts/Goons you will be attacked every turn after what T12? If you are doing BMGoons, that means the only way you can buy provinces is with Gold x2/Goons. It is a lot of turns to either get Gold density that high or hit those odds against turns when you have under 40% gold in deck. You need 8 turns with $8 from 3 cards, that is just an awful lot.

Can I assume you're talking about a 3-card kingdom with Prince, Scout, and Goons? I mean, I assumed there would be some trashing here that help you out a lot, but OK.

But yeah in that kingdom, I believe the best strategy involves getting like three or four Goons at some point and then lots of Golds and Provinces after that without ever getting Prince or Scout. With no trashing, even this Prince of Scouts thing is going to have a hard time playing Goons every turn. Yeah it takes a while, but what is the Prince of Scouts thing doing? Does it aim for Double Goons turns? I don't see that being reliable at all. Actually, something this simple could potentially be simulated, though I may buy a couple more Goons as the BM+Goons player in reaction to this being my opponent's strategy. Like maybe a fifth in that case.

But what is the Goons "engine" player buying to get points? Treasures? That has to be better than more Scouts. So it's starting to look like a Big Money deck at this point anyways, just one that takes the worst possible route to double Goons turns. I just don't think it's good enough and now I think only a simulation would convince me that I'm wrong.

If you add in trashing then it's a different conversation. I guess you add Chapel? I dunno, I'm still not convinced it's better than BM+Goons although it's much harder to prove that.
I do not remember what the trasher was, Chapel or Doc I think (I know I was using it to kill at least two coppers per turn in the late game).


We also had, I think, Workshop or Armory (some cheap terminal gainer); Transmute; Storeroom; Royal seal, Cache or Talisman (I recall it being a mostly useless treasure), and maybe Nomad camp, Herbalist or Woodcutters (some terminal +buy). The draw, I think, was Catacombs.

My analysis of the board was that optimal course was to trash down, build to Goons, buy Scout, buy Prince, Prince Scout, get another Goons, get another Prince of Scout and somewhere along the way get a Catacombs so I could buy more coppers.

My opponent tried Chapel -> BM/catacombs but he did grab some duchies when he had 4 and 5 provinces bought. It quickly became a romp with Goons flooding me with points.

Regardless, there are some very powerful engine setups that warrant having $12 necropoli, particularly if you have longer games (e.g. take my above game and make it a colony game, then Goons > Colony BM > Province BM). Possession and Goons come immediately to mind but even beyond that there are a few things that might be worth it like a Bridge Troll megaturn, a double Giant setup, and possibly some stacking attacks (e.g Rabble/Sab).

I have never seen anything that was really viable outside of Goons, but we have all seen $11 or higher Herbalists, $12 necropolis have their place as well.
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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #43 on: November 18, 2015, 09:14:42 am »
+1

Under "getting green" and "discard for benefit" I feel like you didn't mention the best synergies here: Warehouse/Dungeon. This seems way better than Storeroom, though still probably not actually viable.

You also don't mention Scout/Crossroads (jomini mentioned this too), which I feel like at least deserves a nod here. My opinion is that Scout/Crossroads is only useful in puzzles where you can assume you get perfect shuffle luck. The problem is that Scout is just as likely to hurt a Crossroads for your next hand as it is to help a Crossroads in your current hand.
Also there is problem that you would draw more from another crossroads, assuming that there is some support as pure scout-crossroads is worse than bm.

No. Xroads 1 draws you 3 (number of cards you search) * % green in deck. Xroads 2 draws you (3 + xroads 1) * % green.

For instance. if my deck is 33% green. Xroads 1 will draw me 1 card and Xroads 2 will draw me 1.33 cards for a total of + 2.33 cards at the price of two actions (the +3 being flat and non-scaling).

Scout/Xroads draws 4 * %green from the Scout's draw power and 7 * %green from the Xroads that is played next. Basically any card in the Scout search space draws twice.

With 33% green this works out to be 4/3 cards drawn by the Scout and then 7/3 being drawn by the crossroads for a total of 11/3 or 3.66 cards. This also takes one fewer action and lets you sort the top deck on hands with limited draw (so you can draw some more).

In general, if x is the percent green the two xroads in hand will draw 3x +(3+3x)x or 6x + 3x^2 while Scout/xroads will draw 11x. Scout/Xroads then draws more IFF:

11x >= 6x+3x^2
11 >= 6 + 3x
5/3 >= x

as 1 >= x >= 0 there should be no deck composition where Scout/Xroads hands are expected to draw less than Xroads x2.

Thats both correct and completely useless. You are just counting case when you have scout with crossroads in hand with no other support, which is like hoping that treasure maps will collide. You don't account for hands with one or two scouts in hand but no crossroads, and that with some support you want to play engines draw most with third crossroads which you couldnt do if you draw scout instead crossroads.
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jomini

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #44 on: November 20, 2015, 03:24:44 pm »
0

Under "getting green" and "discard for benefit" I feel like you didn't mention the best synergies here: Warehouse/Dungeon. This seems way better than Storeroom, though still probably not actually viable.

You also don't mention Scout/Crossroads (jomini mentioned this too), which I feel like at least deserves a nod here. My opinion is that Scout/Crossroads is only useful in puzzles where you can assume you get perfect shuffle luck. The problem is that Scout is just as likely to hurt a Crossroads for your next hand as it is to help a Crossroads in your current hand.

Also there is problem that you would draw more from another crossroads, assuming that there is some support as pure scout-crossroads is worse than bm.

No. Xroads 1 draws you 3 (number of cards you search) * % green in deck. Xroads 2 draws you (3 + xroads 1) * % green.

For instance. if my deck is 33% green. Xroads 1 will draw me 1 card and Xroads 2 will draw me 1.33 cards for a total of + 2.33 cards at the price of two actions (the +3 being flat and non-scaling).

Scout/Xroads draws 4 * %green from the Scout's draw power and 7 * %green from the Xroads that is played next. Basically any card in the Scout search space draws twice.

With 33% green this works out to be 4/3 cards drawn by the Scout and then 7/3 being drawn by the crossroads for a total of 11/3 or 3.66 cards. This also takes one fewer action and lets you sort the top deck on hands with limited draw (so you can draw some more).

In general, if x is the percent green the two xroads in hand will draw 3x +(3+3x)x or 6x + 3x^2 while Scout/xroads will draw 11x. Scout/Xroads then draws more IFF:

11x >= 6x+3x^2
11 >= 6 + 3x
5/3 >= x

as 1 >= x >= 0 there should be no deck composition where Scout/Xroads hands are expected to draw less than Xroads x2.

Thats both correct and completely useless. You are just counting case when you have scout with crossroads in hand with no other support, which is like hoping that treasure maps will collide. You don't account for hands with one or two scouts in hand but no crossroads, and that with some support you want to play engines draw most with third crossroads which you couldnt do if you draw scout instead crossroads.

Well, obviously. There are hundreds of potential support cards and many of those can make a better engine without Scout or Xroads. Likewise, while I do not account for double Scout hands, I also do not account for Xroads/no green hands or green/no xroads. The reason for this is that whiffs are pretty much all the same, be they ones where you draw nothing or where you  churn green to no effect. Likewise, massively lucky hands do not do much for you if you already have a decent shot of deck drawing.

The point wasn't to make an exhaustive case that Scout/Xroads is some sort of magical thing, just that you get around a 50% increase by mixing in Scout. I haven't played this very weak combo much, but I'm guessing you want around 1 Scout / 2 Xroads and enough of both to hit either Xroads /2.5 green or Xroads/Scout every turn.

The problem with looking at Xroads 3 is that to have good odds of chaining xroads, you need to increase your green percent to some very high value. For instance, if you want to "only" have 30% of your deck be Xroads, you need around 50% of your deck to have odds of hitting Xroads 2 on the average hand. If you drop the Xroads % down to 25%, you are not expected to play a second Xroads your turn even if the rest of the deck is all green.



Truth be told hitting Scout -> Xroads -> Xroads is much more likely to draw useful stuff than Xroads x3. Say we have 40% green, and 40% xroads/scout. If we split the xroads & scouts evenly our expectation value is to draw around 10 cards (it gets complicated because Scout can reorder the deck top to draw Xroads 2 when it would otherwise be missed). Xroads x3 with 40% xroads, is expected to draw around 7.2 cards. Not only does Scout increase our draw, but it saves actions.


At the end of the day I will consider just about any engine before Scout/Xroads. I will also consider all manner of slogs and BM instead. But Xroads/Scout can make a viable engine and engines in general are always worth considering.

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Powerman

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #45 on: November 23, 2015, 09:42:17 pm »
+6

Leave the forum for a year or two and people start rewriting your scout article.  #hurtfeelings
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A man on a mission.

Roadrunner7671

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #46 on: November 23, 2015, 10:03:29 pm »
0

Leave the forum for a year or two and people start rewriting your scout article.  #hurtfeelings
Then I have a challenge for you, Mr. Powerman!

Write Scout 3 in 2016!
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dghunter79

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #47 on: November 29, 2015, 12:09:47 am »
+4

I appreciate articles showing the most epic logs with the discussed card. So could someone please post a couple of games where Scout is awesome really good not much worse than a laboratory easily on a regular basis more than once?

http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120713-195219-c6ef8676.html

Scout is unbeatable here.  I've posted this game about four thousand times but it's worth it.

markusin

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #48 on: November 29, 2015, 09:50:50 am »
+1

I appreciate articles showing the most epic logs with the discussed card. So could someone please post a couple of games where Scout is awesome really good not much worse than a laboratory easily on a regular basis more than once?

http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120713-195219-c6ef8676.html

Scout is unbeatable here.  I've posted this game about four thousand times but it's worth it.

I've never seen that log before I don't think. Essentially Scout had a lot of the things you're looking for to hopefuy make it good(Great Hall, Scrying Pool, light trashing for Curses and whatnot) and the Scout does not disappoint.
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DoomYoshi

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Re: Scout 2
« Reply #49 on: November 30, 2015, 10:17:53 am »
0

How often would you take a Scout if it came for free on every green card purchase, Duchess style?

This would make a 5/2 split maybe better as you can get an estate to pick up a scout and then a 5 (or another scout if you really want to keep your hands concentrated).
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