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Author Topic: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Town Wins!  (Read 103210 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #650 on: January 03, 2015, 11:05:22 pm »

Who do you think is scum, then?

Awaclus.

I freed myself of offsite responsibilities, so I'll have more time to put into this game. tomorrow.

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #651 on: January 04, 2015, 02:48:04 pm »

Vote Count 3.2

Awaclus (4): Ashersky, A Drowned Kernel, Hydrad, chairs (L-1)

Not Voting (4): silverspawn, sudgy, Witherweaver, Awaclus

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sudgy

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #652 on: January 04, 2015, 02:52:25 pm »

I actually think the way Awaclus has been acting with all these votes is scummy.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

Awaclus

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #653 on: January 04, 2015, 03:15:42 pm »

I actually think the way Awaclus has been acting with all these votes is scummy.

How?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #654 on: January 04, 2015, 04:19:48 pm »

I'm more or less for Awaclus, but I don't really want another abbreviated day.
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #655 on: January 04, 2015, 05:04:37 pm »

I actually think the way Awaclus has been acting with all these votes is scummy.

How?

OMGUSing, then being like "oh crap, I OMGUSed" and unvoting.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

ashersky

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #656 on: January 04, 2015, 05:10:20 pm »

I'm more or less for Awaclus, but I don't really want another abbreviated day.

I kind of like it.
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Hydrad

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #657 on: January 04, 2015, 05:25:23 pm »

So we just turning into a blitz game then?
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Awaclus

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #658 on: January 04, 2015, 05:42:44 pm »

I actually think the way Awaclus has been acting with all these votes is scummy.

How?

OMGUSing, then being like "oh crap, I OMGUSed" and unvoting.

You're forgetting that there was a claim there and it changed things. In retrospect, I guess it should have been obvious that he had a PR which is why he knew that chairs wasn't scum, but at the time, it just felt pretty weird that he would initiate the wagon on me when his evidence for my scumminess was, from my perspective, completely wrong. This is why I originally voted for ashersky. Then he claimed, and suddenly his evidence was apparently correct, so even though the conclusion everyone is drawing from it is still wrong, it makes sense so I don't think it's scummy.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #659 on: January 04, 2015, 05:54:01 pm »

I actually think the way Awaclus has been acting with all these votes is scummy.

How?

OMGUSing, then being like "oh crap, I OMGUSed" and unvoting.

You're forgetting that there was a claim there and it changed things. In retrospect, I guess it should have been obvious that he had a PR which is why he knew that chairs wasn't scum, but at the time, it just felt pretty weird that he would initiate the wagon on me when his evidence for my scumminess was, from my perspective, completely wrong. This is why I originally voted for ashersky. Then he claimed, and suddenly his evidence was apparently correct, so even though the conclusion everyone is drawing from it is still wrong, it makes sense so I don't think it's scummy.

This is all not so convincing.

Either Ash is telling the truth, or he's scum.  You're not making the latter argument.  There therefore must be two scum on-wagon against Joseph (from town-you perspective).  You should be trying harder to figure out who they are.
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ashersky

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #660 on: January 04, 2015, 06:09:38 pm »

I actually think the way Awaclus has been acting with all these votes is scummy.

How?

OMGUSing, then being like "oh crap, I OMGUSed" and unvoting.

You're forgetting that there was a claim there and it changed things. In retrospect, I guess it should have been obvious that he had a PR which is why he knew that chairs wasn't scum, but at the time, it just felt pretty weird that he would initiate the wagon on me when his evidence for my scumminess was, from my perspective, completely wrong. This is why I originally voted for ashersky. Then he claimed, and suddenly his evidence was apparently correct, so even though the conclusion everyone is drawing from it is still wrong, it makes sense so I don't think it's scummy.

This is all not so convincing.

Either Ash is telling the truth, or he's scum.  You're not making the latter argument.  There therefore must be two scum on-wagon against Joseph (from town-you perspective).  You should be trying harder to figure out who they are.

I think he's making the former argument, not the latter.

Anyway, here's the rub:

1)  ashersky is telling the truth AND Awaclus is mafia.
2)  ashersky is telling the truth AND Awaclus is town.
3)  ashersky is lying AND Awaclus is mafia.
4)  ashersky is lying AND Awaclus is town.

These are the only four options possible.  Here's the thing -- the portion before the AND and the portion after are not directly related.  (Note: #3 is ridiculous.)

So, all this is pretty clear to everyone.  I think the only thing that matters is Awaclus's reaction, actually.

What's town!Awaclus think when I come out with my original vote (pre-claim)?  What does scum!Awaclus think?  What's his reaction as either alignment post-claim?  The answers to those questions will help you decide if you think Awaclus is scum.

Remember, my actual "case" on him is that he's the only non-confirmed town player that did not lynch scum on D1.  It's not a slam dunk case, by any means.  I would argue that Awaclus NOT fighting the case is evidence that he actually is scum.  He's not arguing that scum bussed.  He had one post stating that either chairs or me could be scum.  I would have done more as town.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #661 on: January 04, 2015, 06:21:15 pm »

(3) isn't that ridiculous.  I mean, you've basically done it before.  And you would have the "why would I be that crazy to try it again" argument.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #662 on: January 04, 2015, 06:31:23 pm »

But anyway, I agree that town!Awaclus would have been doing more.. that was kind of my point above.

Though, it not being a slam dunk case makes me doubt it slightly more.  As far as fake claims go, it's rather convenient, because if he does turn out town, you're not really culpable.  You still have to argue for two mislynches on wagon, though (or one if you bus).

I don't really find you scummy this game, though, so I'm not inclined to think that.
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Awaclus

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #663 on: January 04, 2015, 07:08:43 pm »

Either Ash is telling the truth, or he's scum.  You're not making the latter argument.  There therefore must be two scum on-wagon against Joseph (from town-you perspective).  You should be trying harder to figure out who they are.

I think either ADK or silverspawn is likely one of them (which is what I said earlier), but it's unlikely that they're both scum. The other one has to be you or Hydrad, but I don't really find either of you very scummy.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #664 on: January 04, 2015, 09:22:37 pm »

Either Ash is telling the truth, or he's scum.  You're not making the latter argument.  There therefore must be two scum on-wagon against Joseph (from town-you perspective).  You should be trying harder to figure out who they are.

I think either ADK or silverspawn is likely one of them (which is what I said earlier), but it's unlikely that they're both scum. The other one has to be you or Hydrad, but I don't really find either of you very scummy.

"Anyone but me could be scum, but I'm not going to commit to any strong reads." Yeah, I like this lynch.
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Awaclus

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #665 on: January 04, 2015, 09:33:36 pm »

Either Ash is telling the truth, or he's scum.  You're not making the latter argument.  There therefore must be two scum on-wagon against Joseph (from town-you perspective).  You should be trying harder to figure out who they are.

I think either ADK or silverspawn is likely one of them (which is what I said earlier), but it's unlikely that they're both scum. The other one has to be you or Hydrad, but I don't really find either of you very scummy.

"Anyone but me could be scum, but I'm not going to commit to any strong reads." Yeah, I like this lynch.

Which part do you disagree with?
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #666 on: January 05, 2015, 08:22:57 am »

Well, I obviously disagree with the part where you call me scum. But mostly I'm pointing out that it's a very hedgey post.
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Awaclus

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #667 on: January 05, 2015, 08:50:55 am »

Well, I obviously disagree with the part where you call me scum. But mostly I'm pointing out that it's a very hedgey post.

How can it be a hedgey post if it's true?
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #668 on: January 05, 2015, 09:15:36 am »

Those two things aren't contradictory; I'm saying that you don't seem to have very strong reads considering how much POE you have available. Out of the five available people you're considering, you're listing four of them, in a fashion that doesn't strongly commit to one over the other. It seems (to me,  at least) that you're setting yourself up to vote for whichever of those people starts getting votes later in the day, which is scummy.
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Awaclus

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #669 on: January 05, 2015, 09:18:37 am »

Those two things aren't contradictory; I'm saying that you don't seem to have very strong reads considering how much POE you have available. Out of the five available people you're considering, you're listing four of them, in a fashion that doesn't strongly commit to one over the other. It seems (to me,  at least) that you're setting yourself up to vote for whichever of those people starts getting votes later in the day, which is scummy.

I don't want to lynch Hydrad or WW yet. I want to lynch either you or silverspawn. Like I said earlier.
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #670 on: January 05, 2015, 11:17:07 am »

Vote Count 3.3

Awaclus (4): Ashersky, A Drowned Kernel, Hydrad, chairs (L-1)

Not Voting (4): silverspawn, sudgy, Witherweaver, Awaclus

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 will last 10 days. The deadline for Day 3 will be Friday, January 11 at 6:30 pm forum time.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #671 on: January 05, 2015, 03:52:13 pm »

So I reread Awaclus, halfway through Day 1 I was ready to come back and hammer him (it was mostly full of fluff and setup stuff), but his actions at the end of Day 1 didn't seem all that scummy.  He got on Joseph's wagon at around spot 3, unvoted after Joseph claimed, and pretty much refused to go for Joseph again.  Generally, partners are a little bit more hedgey.. they want the option to jump on the wagon for the town cred.  On the other hand, Awaclus could be going for a more blatant scum strategy: don't lynch your partner no matter what.

He was away for deadline, which can happen, but there is also scum motivation to do so (it's hard to be around and make arguments for mislynches; it can end up blowing up in your face). 

I know there is Ash's case, too.  Can other people reread and share thoughts? 

For reference, Awaclus' voting history:

Day 1:

Hydrad (RVS)
Seprix
Faust
Joseph
(Unvote)
Faust
Sudgy
EgorK
Seprix
Faust (joke vote)
Seprix

Day 2:
Seprix

Day 3:
Ashersky
(Unvote)

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Witherweaver

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #672 on: January 05, 2015, 03:56:59 pm »

On the other hand (well, the same other hand as before), Awaclus' vote for Egor comes at Joseph at 4 votes and Egor at 2 votes.  Everyone else had at most 1 vote.  Could be trying to start up an alternative wagon to his partner.

In that line of thinking, Silver posts up a pretty long case against Seprix (here) when it's 4-4 Joseph-Egor.  Awaclus immediately follows.
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ashersky

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #673 on: January 05, 2015, 04:36:54 pm »

Sounds like good points against Awaclus to me.
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day the Third
« Reply #674 on: January 06, 2015, 04:55:50 pm »

Hello?
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