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[faust]

In that case if Joseph is really a 1 shot doctor cop

Fixed that for you.

But if you lynch me, you're lynching town. If we lynch someone else, we could hit scum, which would be super-good. Also, I can use my cop shot to get information, assuming I survive, which is possible. Even if I get nightkilled, this still gives us the option to search for a better lynch now, and means they can only lynch me or another townie, whereas both would die if you lynch me.

You do realize that "if you lynch me, you lynch town, therefore it's bad" is a horrible argument?

Yes, but if you kill me, then the scum kill leads to 2 bad kills. If I survive, then the scum have options to kill me or someone else, but not both. So they'll only be able to kill 1 of the people they want to.

Everyone could arge like that.

[faust]

*argue

[ashersky]

Yes, but if you kill me, then the scum kill leads to 2 bad kills. If I survive, then the scum have options to kill me or someone else, but not both. So they'll only be able to kill 1 of the people they want to.

Who else are they wanting to kill, man?  If you are telling the truth, you are the only player they know has a town power role.  You're it.

The argument some are making is, welp, let's just lynch you and get your power into the UB's hands.  That way, we still get an investigation guaranteed.

As others mentioned, a doctor in existence negates that argument, but then the doctor is protecting you instead of their preferred target.

[ashersky]

3. The 1-shot Cop is useless. If Joseph is indeed town, then maybe scum will kill him tonight to prevent an investigation. What's much more likely though is that they will simply roleblock him. In that case we don't get any information, and our Cop shot goes to waste. Much better to give the shot to the unknown UB, who has in fact a chance of actually catching scum with it.

How do you know there's a roleblocker?

[Hydrad]

Vote: Joseph

[ashersky]

Back to Joseph for a minute:

You know what the big issue is here?  Joseph is making the classic mistake when trying to survive.  He's arguing about why his lynch is bad, not why the case is bad.

Consider this analogy;

Joseph works at a bank as a teller.  His boss comes up to him one day at the end of work and says "Joseph, you are fired.  You've made too many errors at the teller window and you're costing the bank $25.00 a day in losses.  Sorry."

Joseph replies, "but boss, it's not a good idea to fire me because Sally's out on maternity leave and with all the new business coming in from our free checking with a free toaster campaign, you really need all the teller windows open!  It's not a great idea to fire me right now."

Joseph never addresses the issue of making errors and losing money.  He just tries to explain why it's bad for the bank to fire him.

[Awaclus]

So look, I'm summarizing why lynching Joseph is good:

1. He's easily the scummiest player around. Just reread if you don't believe him. Textbook scum tells. Now you may say "it's too obvious", but this would be Joseph's first scum play, and because of that, it's reasonable that he would make these mistakes.

2. Everyone has taken a stand. Lynching Joseph will give us a lot of data to analyze - how did people act towards the lynch? We get much more out of this than say, out of lynching a lurker.

3. The 1-shot Cop is useless. If Joseph is indeed town, then maybe scum will kill him tonight to prevent an investigation. What's much more likely though is that they will simply roleblock him. In that case we don't get any information, and our Cop shot goes to waste. Much better to give the shot to the unknown UB, who has in fact a chance of actually catching scum with it.

So you're saying that it would be beneficial for scum to attempt to lynch a random townie instead of town!Joseph here? That sounds counter-intuitive to me, but maybe it's right.

[faust]

3. The 1-shot Cop is useless. If Joseph is indeed town, then maybe scum will kill him tonight to prevent an investigation. What's much more likely though is that they will simply roleblock him. In that case we don't get any information, and our Cop shot goes to waste. Much better to give the shot to the unknown UB, who has in fact a chance of actually catching scum with it.

How do you know there's a roleblocker?

I don't know. I said it's likely that they roleblock, that is, if they have a roleblocker, that's what they will do, and I think it's more likely that they have one than not.

[faust]

I mean, if Joseph is telling the truth, there only needs to be one more PR for scum to have a roleblocker.

[Joseph2302]

3. The 1-shot Cop is useless. If Joseph is indeed town, then maybe scum will kill him tonight to prevent an investigation. What's much more likely though is that they will simply roleblock him. In that case we don't get any information, and our Cop shot goes to waste. Much better to give the shot to the unknown UB, who has in fact a chance of actually catching scum with it.

How do you know there's a roleblocker?

You don't, unless you're scum, it's perfectly possible that the mafia could be normal goons.
The chance of 6 Ts is 1/64, the chance of exactly 5 Ts is 6/64, so there's a 7/64 = 11% chance that there's no roleblocker (please correct if maths is wrong!). In that case, lynching me seems really bad, as it gives all the killing power to the scum team.

Plus, there's no guarantee that I will use the shot, so if you don't lynch me, I could always not use it, and so if I die, it passes to the UB anyway. Adding uncertainties for who the scum should kill can only be a good idea IMO.

Back to Joseph for a minute:

Yes, but the case is bad because I can still use my cop ability, and the fact that the scum won't know if I'm using it or not posess problems for them- to kill me or not to kill me? If there is a roleblocker, then my presence may cause them to waste their ability on blocking me, and not another PR (it's likely there is another PR in this game), which is good for us. If there's a doctor then this case is terrible, since the Doctor can save me, which means there probably won't be a NK, plus I get to use the cop ability.

Granted, the doctor can't protect who they want, but I'm probably the most likely target anyway, so the one who needs protecting.
faust's case seems strong if and only if the mafia have a roleblocker and we don't have a doctor to protect me. But this isn't guaranteed, and if this is not the case, then I believe that the above shows I'm still useful to town.

[Joseph2302]

MATHS IS WRONG, we can't be in 6T territory.

So the chance of 5T is 6/64 = 9.4%, still enough to think about.

[faust]

3. The 1-shot Cop is useless. If Joseph is indeed town, then maybe scum will kill him tonight to prevent an investigation. What's much more likely though is that they will simply roleblock him. In that case we don't get any information, and our Cop shot goes to waste. Much better to give the shot to the unknown UB, who has in fact a chance of actually catching scum with it.

How do you know there's a roleblocker?

You don't, unless you're scum, it's perfectly possible that the mafia could be normal goons.
The chance of 6 Ts is 1/64, the chance of exactly 5 Ts is 6/64, so there's a 7/64 = 11% chance that there's no roleblocker (please correct if maths is wrong!). In that case, lynching me seems really bad, as it gives all the killing power to the scum team.

You are ignoring the fact that you are supposed to know that there are not 6 Ts. Scumslip?

PPE: Well, you realized it faster.

[faust]

Back to Joseph for a minute:

Yes, but the case is bad because I can still use my cop ability, and the fact that the scum won't know if I'm using it or not posess problems for them- to kill me or not to kill me? If there is a roleblocker, then my presence may cause them to waste their ability on blocking me, and not another PR (it's likely there is another PR in this game), which is good for us. If there's a doctor then this case is terrible, since the Doctor can save me, which means there probably won't be a NK, plus I get to use the cop ability.

You do realize that you continue to do exactly what ash critized in the first place?

[faust]

MATHS IS WRONG, we can't be in 6T territory.

So the chance of 5T is 6/64 = 9.4%, still enough to think about.

So you are asking us to go for the 9.4 % scenario instead of the 91.6 % one?

[chairs]

What's the pro-silverspawn argument?  I'm beginning to see an argument for town!faust even though I think he's dead wrong on the appropriate route to take with regards to Joseph, but I'm not interested in lynching Joseph (Today), so I'm seeing a couple people say silverspawn - and since I'm starting to rethink my first lynch choice...

unvote

[faust]

What's the pro-silverspawn argument?  I'm beginning to see an argument for town!faust even though I think he's dead wrong on the appropriate route to take with regards to Joseph, but I'm not interested in lynching Joseph (Today), so I'm seeing a couple people say silverspawn - and since I'm starting to rethink my first lynch choice...

unvote

Do you think Joseph is town?

[Joseph2302]

Back to Joseph for a minute:

Yes, but the case is bad because I can still use my cop ability, and the fact that the scum won't know if I'm using it or not posess problems for them- to kill me or not to kill me? If there is a roleblocker, then my presence may cause them to waste their ability on blocking me, and not another PR (it's likely there is another PR in this game), which is good for us. If there's a doctor then this case is terrible, since the Doctor can save me, which means there probably won't be a NK, plus I get to use the cop ability.

You do realize that you continue to do exactly what ash critized in the first place?

Arguing is hard.

On a serious not, the case relies on there being a roleblocker, and no doctor. With either of these assumptions being wrong, the case is bad, for the reasons I mentioned about RBs/Doctors. The case also wants to give power to the UB, but hasn't considered that they could be NK (with probability 1/8 if I or other town are lynched), in which case we lose the shot anyway.

To sum up, the problem with the case is it only works under certain assumptions (RB and no doctor), otherwise there are many options/situations which haven't been considered by the case.

MATHS IS WRONG, we can't be in 6T territory.

So the chance of 5T is 6/64 = 9.4%, still enough to think about.

So you are asking us to go for the 9.4 % scenario instead of the 91.6 % one?

No, because your case needs no doctors too, so the %age is significantly lower. (not entirely sure how to work it exactly, but the chance of a doctor on any randomisation is 10%)
So, the bad cases are: 5T + no doctor, and UB is NKed, not just the 9.4% for 5Ts.

[faust]

No, because your case needs no doctors too, so the %age is significantly lower. (not entirely sure how to work it exactly, but the chance of a doctor on any randomisation is 10%)
So, the bad cases are: 5T + no doctor, and UB is NKed, not just the 9.4% for 5Ts.

I never assumed no doctors. Plus, my case is also that you're playing scummily. What do you have to say about that?

[faust]

No, because your case needs no doctors too, so the %age is significantly lower. (not entirely sure how to work it exactly, but the chance of a doctor on any randomisation is 10%)
So, the bad cases are: 5T + no doctor, and UB is NKed, not just the 9.4% for 5Ts.

I never assumed no doctors. Plus, my case is also that you're playing scummily. What do you have to say about that?

Also, as a side note, if you're telling the truth and there is a doctor, then there's guaranteed to be a Strongman, so you could always be killed if scum wants to.

[Seprix]

If there are any doctors, please come forward.

[Hydrad]

If there are any doctors, please come forward.

uh lets not

[Joseph2302]

No, because your case needs no doctors too, so the %age is significantly lower. (not entirely sure how to work it exactly, but the chance of a doctor on any randomisation is 10%)
So, the bad cases are: 5T + no doctor, and UB is NKed, not just the 9.4% for 5Ts.

I never assumed no doctors. Plus, my case is also that you're playing scummily. What do you have to say about that?

I disagree that I've been playing scummy, what evidence do you have? I've reread and nothing seems super-scummy.
The edit on my reads, where I changed you from town to scum was based on a mistake, I'd said previously I thought your interactions with sudgy/chairs were scummy. Although, I never actually voted for you, because there was a possibility of a quicklynch there, which was bad.
I don't think chairs wagon was scummy (which you accused me of in #216), as it was an attempt to get more information/discussion. I've withdrawn from voting chairs, at it seems an easy mislynch.

Apart from that, I don't see how I'm scummy. I've contributed to the game, whereas many players have been far less active than me, and I've tried to contribute discussion and information to push this game towards a good lynch, which I no longer feel we're going to get. Please could you enlighten me into how I'm so obviously the scummiest player in this game?

On the other hand, all this game, you seem to be tunnelled on voting for me. It was you that basically forced me to reveal, and now you leading the "let's kill him anyway" brigade. Why have you been so intent on lynching me? Tunnelling can be a scummy move. Every time I try to discuss things, it seems that you want to turn it into a reason why I'm scum.

[Joseph2302]

If there are any doctors, please come forward.

No. If a doctor comes forward, then either:
(1). I'll get lynched anyway, and then the doctor will get NKed.
(2). I don't get lynched, and there's a RB, then the RB will block the doctor, and I'll get NKed.
(3). I don't get lynched, and there's no RB, then the doctor is NKed.

None of these are any better than if the doctor doesn't reveal themselves.

[faust]

I wrote up this nice post with quotes, and then deleted it. I'm too lazy to do it again, so you'll have to live with the short version.

Your votes are sheepish, you're opportunistic and always jumping whatever wagon you find. Your votes are weakly justified. Your claim was convenient, and you didn't for a minute refuse to claim, even though you've professed to find me, who was urging you to vote, scummy.

[ashersky]

Definitely no more claiming by anyone, please.