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Author Topic: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Town Wins!  (Read 102878 times)

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Joseph2302

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #275 on: December 23, 2014, 07:27:53 am »

It's my second game, M53 was my first game.

Also, I don't want to have to claim, but it seems increasingly likely I'm going to need to, in order to save you all from mislynching.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #276 on: December 23, 2014, 08:14:29 am »

So, we should probably lynch Joseph, he's scummy as hell. There's an issue with the deadline though, if most of us are VLA until the 27th, there may not be enough time to deal with claims and stuff. So I'm actually in favor of having Joseph claim right away.

I think he's scummy, too, but it could just be him.  This is his first game, right?  Day 1 pass.

I like silverspawn for day 1.

Last game I was pretty sure he was town, so no passes from me.
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faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #277 on: December 23, 2014, 08:14:45 am »

It's my second game, M53 was my first game.

Also, I don't want to have to claim, but it seems increasingly likely I'm going to need to, in order to save you all from mislynching.

Softclaim huzzah!
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faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #278 on: December 23, 2014, 08:16:18 am »

Joseph, you need to full claim now. If you're town, scum already knows that you're a PR.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #279 on: December 23, 2014, 08:29:52 am »

Fine, I'm a 1-shot Cop.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #280 on: December 23, 2014, 08:36:53 am »

Probably doesn't help us much though, as I'm now going to get Nightkilled. :( at least if you don't lynch me, the chance of hitting scum is higher (3/11 not 3/12)- there are 3 scum, right?
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
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Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #281 on: December 23, 2014, 08:43:34 am »

Fine, I'm a 1-shot Cop.

Okay, unvote. You investigate tonight, and if you're still alive by tomorrow, we can still lynch you.
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Awaclus

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #282 on: December 23, 2014, 09:03:51 am »

Unvote
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #283 on: December 23, 2014, 09:06:20 am »

Fine, I'm a 1-shot Cop.

Okay, unvote. You investigate tonight, and if you're still alive by tomorrow, we can still lynch you.

Let's look at the possible outcomes

1 - he dies. okay, that's great, clearly better than lynching him, but it's pretty unlikely
2 - he is alive and claims scum result on X. We can lynch X, then we mislynched two targets instead of lynching him now. Good trade for him.
3 - he is alive and claims town result on X. Now, if we go ahead and lynch him, we have created an IC, although that IC might not survive the next night.

I'm not sure if that is really good enough. Note also that one shot cop is a super safe claim for scum, because there is no way it can backfire.

honestly, this just confirms my suspicion that Joseph is scum

also vote: ashersky for tunneling me

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #284 on: December 23, 2014, 09:07:51 am »

also, Joseph defending me sounds kind of like white knighting. if he's scum, he knows I'm town. I think he has mentioned twice that he doesn't think I'm scum.

silverspawn

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #285 on: December 23, 2014, 09:08:56 am »

also, if he is scum in 3., then we just lynch him one turn later, which is also bad.

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #286 on: December 23, 2014, 09:09:51 am »

Silver is just changing his playstyle every game, that's frustrating.

Setup question: Will UB inherit 1-shot cop with 0 shots? If yes Joseph should not tell u if he will investigate or not
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #287 on: December 23, 2014, 09:19:28 am »

Silver is just changing his playstyle every game, that's frustrating.

Setup question: Will UB inherit 1-shot cop with 0 shots? If yes Joseph should not tell u if he will investigate or not

If I recall correctly, yes. He shouldn't say if he's investigating anyway. And we shouldn't lynch a claimed 1-shot cop.

I'm a little behind on this game but I still find Silver scummy, I still want to lynch chairs too.
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faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #288 on: December 23, 2014, 09:28:56 am »

Fine, I'm a 1-shot Cop.

Okay, unvote. You investigate tonight, and if you're still alive by tomorrow, we can still lynch you.

Let's look at the possible outcomes

1 - he dies. okay, that's great, clearly better than lynching him, but it's pretty unlikely
2 - he is alive and claims scum result on X. We can lynch X, then we mislynched two targets instead of lynching him now. Good trade for him.
3 - he is alive and claims town result on X. Now, if we go ahead and lynch him, we have created an IC, although that IC might not survive the next night.

I'm not sure if that is really good enough. Note also that one shot cop is a super safe claim for scum, because there is no way it can backfire.

honestly, this just confirms my suspicion that Joseph is scum

also vote: ashersky for tunneling me

In the case of 2 (which is likely), we can always lynch Joseph. In fact, I would probably argue for lynching Joseph. Then, if Joseph is town. 3 is better than mislynching Joseph now. Note that if Joseph is scum, we can still hit other scum today.
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faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #289 on: December 23, 2014, 09:35:54 am »

Silver is just changing his playstyle every game, that's frustrating.

Setup question: Will UB inherit 1-shot cop with 0 shots? If yes Joseph should not tell u if he will investigate or not

If I recall correctly, yes. He shouldn't say if he's investigating anyway. And we shouldn't lynch a claimed 1-shot cop.

I'm a little behind on this game but I still find Silver scummy, I still want to lynch chairs too.

Oh, he should definitely investigate. There's not necessarily a UB in this setup.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #290 on: December 23, 2014, 09:42:33 am »

Setup question: Will UB inherit 1-shot cop with 0 shots? If yes Joseph should not tell u if he will investigate or not

Clarifications:
--If a 1-Shot PR is the first PR to die, the UB will inherit that role, even if the shot was used up. The UB will not receive a new shot.
--If the Universal Backup converts to a Mason due to a single M roll, that player will not be informed of the conversion.

So the answer I believe is UB inherits 1-shot cop with 0/1 shots, unless they've already converted to a mason.
Assuming my reading is correct, I will not be revealing my cop intentions today.
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #291 on: December 23, 2014, 09:45:25 am »

Setup question: Will UB inherit 1-shot cop with 0 shots? If yes Joseph should not tell u if he will investigate or not

Clarifications:
--If a 1-Shot PR is the first PR to die, the UB will inherit that role, even if the shot was used up. The UB will not receive a new shot.
--If the Universal Backup converts to a Mason due to a single M roll, that player will not be informed of the conversion.

So the answer I believe is UB inherits 1-shot cop with 0/1 shots, unless they've already converted to a mason.
Assuming my reading is correct, I will not be revealing my cop intentions today.

Hmm, I believe you're right.

Vote: Joseph
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faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #292 on: December 23, 2014, 09:47:10 am »

I think that Masons, if present, should probably claim now.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #293 on: December 23, 2014, 09:55:34 am »

I think that Masons, if present, should probably claim now.

yes, because then we know if there's a UB. If there's a UB, at least we still get the cop shot, even if you lynch me (which seems increasing likely). If not, then lynching me is not so good for us, as we lose my cop shot.
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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #294 on: December 23, 2014, 09:56:00 am »

I'm already voting for him but vote: faust again for trying to out PRs and for trying to lynch a claimed 1-shot. We can always lynch him after he's had a chance to use his shot, and there's plenty of opportunity in this setup for protection.
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faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #295 on: December 23, 2014, 10:36:14 am »

I think that Masons, if present, should probably claim now.

yes, because then we know if there's a UB. If there's a UB, at least we still get the cop shot, even if you lynch me (which seems increasing likely). If not, then lynching me is not so good for us, as we lose my cop shot.

Nonono. Chances are, if there are Masons, that there's NO UB.
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silverspawn

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday!
« Reply #296 on: December 23, 2014, 10:37:13 am »

faust

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday!
« Reply #297 on: December 23, 2014, 10:40:00 am »

All games include a Universal Back-Up

?

Read on. A single M transforms the UB into a Mason.
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silverspawn

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #298 on: December 23, 2014, 10:44:03 am »

ah, I see

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Re: M55: Mafia Holiday! - Day 1 - PM for speccy
« Reply #299 on: December 23, 2014, 10:46:58 am »

I think that Masons, if present, should probably claim now.

yes, because then we know if there's a UB. If there's a UB, at least we still get the cop shot, even if you lynch me (which seems increasing likely). If not, then lynching me is not so good for us, as we lose my cop shot.

Nonono. Chances are, if there are Masons, that there's NO UB.

There can be masons and UB if there are four M's, so Masons claiming doesn't do anything except give scum info.
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