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[reinoe]

yeah, 4 other people are doing it.  But you were the third person.  It was Ashersky's plan, he can vote for it.  The second person is misinformed town, the third is scum jumping on an opportunity.

Although I'm indifferent about Asherky's plan, to hell with the "logic" on display in post #192 and #194.

Also Townread on TwistedArcher.

VOTE:2.71828

[chairs]

Hi.

I am playing this game.

Also I can't believe I already missed an AshPlan (tm).

[XerxesPraelor]

I don't get what the point of ash's plan is.

vote: reinoe

[Hydrad]

Has ash ever suggested a plan when hes scum that would end up hurting town if we went along with it? I know that hes suggested plans as scum but they were still good plans for town.

[Teproc]

That was a long post with a lot of nonsense to justify an early vote e...

vote : e

[Teproc]

vote: e

[Teproc]

Has ash ever suggested a plan when hes scum that would end up hurting town if we went along with it? I know that hes suggested plans as scum but they were still good plans for town.

I think I remember that happening... the Doctor Who RMM maybe ?

[xeiron]

I have done some math around no-lynching.
With a game of 16 players, I think 4 scum or 4 scum + SK sounds right.
I am assuming random lynch/kills for easier math. that is pretty much true anyway D1.
I am also assuming no PR interaction. That is not accurate to the game, but since both sides have PRs I don't think they will affetct the number too much.

Lets first assume we have a SK, a scumteam of 4 and 11 town players.
If we lynch today we have 1/16 chance to hit SK, 4/16 chance to hit scum, and 11/16 chance to hit town.
With two night kills this brings us to D2 with the following dead:

SK+4 scum+11town - lynch
SK | Scum | Town
 0      0         3       - 40.2 %
 0      1         1       - 19.5 %
 0      1         2       - 16.4 %
 1      0         1       -   6.3 %
 0      2         1       -   4.9 %             
 0      0         2       -   4.5 %
 1      0         2       -   4.5 %
 1      1         1       -   1.6 %
 1      2         0       -   0.5%

expected number of dead townies:       2.05
expected number of dead non-townies: 0.61
expected number of dead scum:           0.48
expected number of dead SK:              0.13
at least 1 dead townie:                     99.5%
at least 1 dead non-town player:        53.7%
at least 1 dead scum:                        42.9%
dead SK                                           12.9%
________________________________

SK+4 scum+11 town  - No lynch:
SK | Scum | Town
 0      0         2       - 61.1 %
 0      1         1       - 24.4 %
 0      0         1       -   6.1 %
 1      0         1       -   6.1 %
 1      1         0       -   2.2 %       

expected number of dead townies:       1.59
expected number of dead non-townies: 0.35
expected number of dead scum:           0.26
expected number of dead SK:              0.08
at least 1 dead townie:                      97.8%
at least 1 dead non-town player:        32.7%
at least 1 dead scum:                        26.2.%
dead SK                                             8.3%
_________________________________

4 scum+12 town - lynch
Scum| Town
  0          2    -  75 %
  1          1    -  25 %

expected number of dead townies :    1.75
expected number of dead scum:        0.25
at least 1 dead townie:                 100%
at least 1 dead scum:                     25%
_________________________________

4 scum+12 town - no-lynch
Scum | Town
   0         1    - 100% 

expected number of dead townies:       1
expected number of dead scum:           0
at least 1 dead townie:                   100%
at least 1 dead scum:                         0%
__________________________________

With these numbers no-lynch seems worse than I thought.

In the 1+4+11 scenario, if we lynch we have almost two times as high chance to kill a bad-guy (0.61 instead of 0.35 dead bad guys) and we only sacrifice half a townie on it in average (2.05 instead of 1.59 dead good guys). I doubt Asherskys plan will make up for that oppurtunity to kill scum.

If we are up agaist only one scumteam, no-lynching is even worse.

[faust]

Vote Count 1.1

Ichimaru Gin (1): 2.71828...
xeiron (1): silverspawn
silverspawn (1): Witherweaver
Awaclus (1): xxpittip
No Lynch (4): ashersky, A Drowned Kernel, Hydrad, Awaclus
2.71828... (3): Ichimaru Gin, reinoe, Teproc
reinoe (1): XerxesPraelor

Not Voting (4): Beyond Awesome, xeiron, chairs, Twistedarcher

With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch. Day 1 ends January 12 at 11 am forum time.

[xeiron]

Has ash ever suggested a plan when hes scum that would end up hurting town if we went along with it? I know that hes suggested plans as scum but they were still good plans for town.

I think I remember that happening... the Doctor Who RMM maybe ?

Sort of, yes.
In Doctor Who Ashersky claimed town enabler right from the start and said that he might enable scum and that we should consider to lynch him.
In reality he was scum that enabeled (more or less) immortality for the doctor (an IC who alo had a strong night-power). Because of that it would actually benefit scum if Ashersky died so that his team could kill the IC.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I don't get what the point of ash's plan is.

vote: reinoe

So why vote reinoe?

[silverspawn]

Silver has been playing a lot of WIFOM games lately (...)

I didn't actually want to play any WIFOM games this time. I just really hoped to get a scum role for this game because I like playing scum a lot, and I didn't, so I posted the comment.

I'm a little bit surprised that everyone seems to just go along with ash's plan. He hasn't even explained why eliminating twilight powers is supposed to be a good thing... any comment on that ash?

I'm not necessarily opposed to a no lynch though.

About the button: Do you think it would be helpful to have people volunteer to promise to push it?

[silverspawn]

eh, I don't think these numbers have any significance for this game, to be honest

[Teproc]

I'm a little bit surprised that everyone seems to just go along with ash's plan. He hasn't even explained why eliminating twilight powers is supposed to be a good thing... any comment on that ash?

I'm not necessarily opposed to a no lynch though.

This.

About the button: Do you think it would be helpful to have people volunteer to promise to push it?

No. Definitely not. That would be softclaiming VT/passive role/PR not using his role that night.

PPE : Also agree with that, mathematic analysis of mafia is generally misleading, especially in RMM.

[A Drowned Kernel]

We should probably come to some sort of consensus as to whether we're going to push it at all, though.

[Witherweaver]

yeah, 4 other people are doing it.  But you were the third person.  It was Ashersky's plan, he can vote for it.  The second person is misinformed town, the third is scum jumping on an opportunity.

This is a tad weak.

[Witherweaver]

That was a long post with a lot of nonsense to justify an early vote e...

vote : e

This was third, therefore you're scum.

Fourth is IC, right?

Vote: e

[silverspawn]

We should probably come to some sort of consensus as to whether we're going to push it at all, though.

Well, if we don't, we basically have random deaths, which doesn't sound good in an RMM, since there's probably a fair number of investigative powers. In truth it's even worse than random, because we don't know if it was pushed; if we were to decide not to push it, scum could always push it and if we don't figure it out, we think our investigative results are worthless while scum gets their kills through.

So, I'm for pushing it, unless someone explains me why I'm wrong.

[silverspawn]

yeah, 4 other people are doing it.  But you were the third person.  It was Ashersky's plan, he can vote for it.  The second person is misinformed town, the third is scum jumping on an opportunity.

This is a tad weak.

It is weak, but I don't think it's weak enough to be a scum tell.

[Witherweaver]

yeah, 4 other people are doing it.  But you were the third person.  It was Ashersky's plan, he can vote for it.  The second person is misinformed town, the third is scum jumping on an opportunity.

This is a tad weak.

It is weak, but I don't think it's weak enough to be a scum tell.

The overexplanation proceeding it, however, was.  Oh, hey, now we have that fluff we were talking about!

[Awaclus]

No. Definitely not. That would be softclaiming VT/passive role/PR not using his role that night.

Plus if we rely on someone who promised to push it, then scum can promise to push it and then not push it, which would cause a lot of misinformation (or at least unreliable information) going on. Assuming we want to push the button, I don't think there's any downside in agreeing that everyone whose power is passive or not worth using that night just pushes the button.

I think that pushing the button is good.

[Beyond Awesome]

Man, this game has exploded. Still kind of busy these days. I am still catching up. But, I really don't like the idea of a No Lynch. I'm curious why so many of you are voting for it. Since when is a D1 No Lynch ever a good plan?

[Beyond Awesome]

vote: e

I find his sheeping of Ash's plan to be very scummy. Ditto for Hydrad as well.

[Witherweaver]

vote: e

I find his sheeping of Ash's plan to be very scummy. Ditto for Hydrad as well.

He's sheeping Ash's plan?

[reinoe]

I'm in a neighborhood with TwistedArcher btw.  Just the two of us.