There's not much you can do about shuffle luck with Doctor. The other two cards you mentioned are really trash-for-benefit. Develop ostensibly thickens your deck (trash one card, gain two, although the gaining is sometimes impossible), so I tend to lump it more with cards like Remodel and Expand as opposed to Chapel and Steward. Trade Route is also tfb, but its benefit takes a while to materialize, so if that's the trasher, I think it's very often better to get it late. The tipping point seems to be something like, if it only trashes one card and doesn't otherwise benefit you on that turn, there's a good chance it'll hurt your building too much to be a worthwhile opener. Forager is a great comparison to Trade Route in this sense. They cost the same, but Forager is much better early because although it only trashes one card, it starts giving you money much sooner (it's also non-terminal but that matters less at the opening and more when your deck is already thin enough to make collision with other actions likely).