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[silverspawn]

I never said this, but now I'm going to go ahead and say it.  Pointless post count +1.

my post was basically about how the two bold parts don't necessarily contradict, and you say it's pointless based on the fact that it includes both bold parts. well done.

[Witherweaver]

I never said this, but now I'm going to go ahead and say it.  Pointless post count +1.

my post was basically about how the two bold parts don't necessarily contradict, and you say it's pointless based on the fact that it includes both bold parts. well done.

I don't think that's what your post was about.

[silverspawn]

I mean, i was purposefully having the two paragraphs begin like that to illustrate my point further. whether or not I think it was a mistake is completely independent of how I judge arguments that say "it was a mistake cause XX". If people understood this concept, the world be a much better place. This is like the least pointless post I've made this entire game. Why did you have to pick this one to make that kind of remark? Plus, if you hadn't done it, the discussion would be over now. But the fact that you did forces me to respond.

[Witherweaver]

I mean, i was purposefully having the two paragraphs begin like that to illustrate my point further. whether or not I think it was a mistake is completely independent of how I judge arguments that say "it was a mistake cause XX". If people understood this concept, the world be a much better place. This is like the least pointless post I've made this entire game. Why did you have to pick this one to make that kind of remark? Plus, if you hadn't done it, the discussion would be over now. But the fact that you did forces me to respond.

Yes we all understand that, and we understood it before.

So, who is Ichi's partner?

[Ichimaru Gin]

Fine, you caught me. It's Ash.
[/sarcasm]

I guess I can't blame you given how the claiming has turned out. Somehow I end up looking scummy even though I'm telling the truth
Oh well, I guess my perfect record will be broken. Not the worst game to have it happen in given all the bizarre stuff that's happened.

Please lynch Jimmmmm after my flip though, because it will be obvious he is scum by then.

Also, something to consider. Regardless of what you believe about my alignment, there is a SK in the setup, since without you knowing my flip it's either #6 or #7 and both have SK's.

[Witherweaver]

So let's pretend "1-shot BP Commuter" is a typo, since it is, and it really says "1-shot Commuter".

Want to reanalyze?

[ashersky]

Dude. Four people claim. They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Psychologist.

Have a look at the possible setups and tell me how many include 3 of these and what the odd one out is.

Dude.  Four people claim.  They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Goon Cop.

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Watcher.

Your argument is correct that his fakeclaim was not fully safe.  Your argument is incorrect that he had a "better" option.  The three roles not in the setups all result in the same problem.

Goon Cop + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard
Watcher + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard

Do not exist.  Just like Psychologist + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard does not exist.

ALL THREE POSSIBILITIES ARE THE SAME.  If he's fakeclaiming, any of the three could fail, but Psychologist is the one with the easiest to fake results.

[ashersky]

I prefer to lynch Ichi first (before the scum in the VT pool) because I believe he is the Traitor, and therefore the Roleblocker.  If we lynch the Goon first, we still have a Roleblocker who can just block Silver (and I guess accidentally block the SK, which is another way to account for missing kills btw).

[Witherweaver]

I prefer to lynch Ichi first (before the scum in the VT pool) because I believe he is the Traitor, and therefore the Roleblocker.  If we lynch the Goon first, we still have a Roleblocker who can just block Silver (and I guess accidentally block the SK, which is another way to account for missing kills btw).

Actually, when Traitor is lynched, a Goon inherits the Roleblocking role.

[ashersky]

I prefer to lynch Ichi first (before the scum in the VT pool) because I believe he is the Traitor, and therefore the Roleblocker.  If we lynch the Goon first, we still have a Roleblocker who can just block Silver (and I guess accidentally block the SK, which is another way to account for missing kills btw).

Actually, when Traitor is lynched, a Goon inherits the Roleblocking role.

Oh.  Lame.

[ashersky]

On the earlier question of simultaneous roleblock/jk -- I assume they just cancel each other out and neither gets to do anything?  That's the best I can come up with using yumalogic.

[Ichimaru Gin]

So let's pretend "1-shot BP Commuter" is a typo, since it is, and it really says "1-shot Commuter".

Want to reanalyze?

Wait. . .
After checking the thread I see the 1-shot BP Commuter was a mod typo so setup #4 is entirely possible--and that's why it's me vs. silverspawn.
That explains why people came to that conclusion.

And, setup #4 actually makes the most sense given the incredible lack of kills if we actually had a SK.
Back to vote: Silverspawn

PPE: a bunch

[Witherweaver]

So is SK implausible? 

I've never been SK, so I need someone with more experience to tell me what they would do (or did, if you're the SK).  You have:

*2-shot JOAT of: {passive 1-shot Bulletproof, 1-shot Strongman, 1-shot Investigation Immune}
*One of each of: {Goon Cop, Detective, Psychologist, 1-shot Commuter, 1-shot Bulletproof, Bodyguard, Jailkeeper, Watcher}

Do you give up your kills to use these?  Blowing investigation immune and commuter maybe makes sense early in the game maybe.  Or maybe it's better to save for late.  Maybe you spend early game investigating to get a better feel of who's whom?  I dunno.

[Witherweaver]

Also SK has a Roleblock in Jailkeeper.

[Witherweaver]

On the earlier question of simultaneous roleblock/jk -- I assume they just cancel each other out and neither gets to do anything?  That's the best I can come up with using yumalogic.

That would be my guess.

[Jimmmmm]

Dude. Four people claim. They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Psychologist.

Have a look at the possible setups and tell me how many include 3 of these and what the odd one out is.

Dude.  Four people claim.  They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Goon Cop.

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Watcher.

Your argument is correct that his fakeclaim was not fully safe.  Your argument is incorrect that he had a "better" option.  The three roles not in the setups all result in the same problem.

Goon Cop + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard
Watcher + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard

Do not exist.  Just like Psychologist + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard does not exist.

ALL THREE POSSIBILITIES ARE THE SAME.  If he's fakeclaiming, any of the three could fail, but Psychologist is the one with the easiest to fake results.

But if he's a Traitor in TKM there were exactly two possible setups - the one we have if he lying, or the one above. No way he comes out with a first claim which gives him a 50% chance of being auto-lynched.

[Witherweaver]

So let's pretend "1-shot BP Commuter" is a typo, since it is, and it really says "1-shot Commuter".

Want to reanalyze?

Wait. . .
After checking the thread I see the 1-shot BP Commuter was a mod typo so setup #4 is entirely possible--and that's why it's me vs. silverspawn.
That explains why people came to that conclusion.

And, setup #4 actually makes the most sense given the incredible lack of kills if we actually had a SK.
Back to vote: Silverspawn

PPE: a bunch

Wouldn't the correct conclusion be that it's you vs. Silverspawn vs. Jimmmmm?

[Jimmmmm]

Dude. Four people claim. They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Psychologist.

Have a look at the possible setups and tell me how many include 3 of these and what the odd one out is.

Dude.  Four people claim.  They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Goon Cop.

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Watcher.

Your argument is correct that his fakeclaim was not fully safe.  Your argument is incorrect that he had a "better" option.  The three roles not in the setups all result in the same problem.

Goon Cop + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard
Watcher + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard

Do not exist.  Just like Psychologist + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard does not exist.

ALL THREE POSSIBILITIES ARE THE SAME.  If he's fakeclaiming, any of the three could fail, but Psychologist is the one with the easiest to fake results.

Sorry misunderstood your point.

Scum would not make any of those claims without more information on the setup.

[Witherweaver]

Dude. Four people claim. They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Psychologist.

Have a look at the possible setups and tell me how many include 3 of these and what the odd one out is.

Dude.  Four people claim.  They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Goon Cop.

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Watcher.

Your argument is correct that his fakeclaim was not fully safe.  Your argument is incorrect that he had a "better" option.  The three roles not in the setups all result in the same problem.

Goon Cop + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard
Watcher + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard

Do not exist.  Just like Psychologist + 2 of BP/JK/Bodyguard does not exist.

ALL THREE POSSIBILITIES ARE THE SAME.  If he's fakeclaiming, any of the three could fail, but Psychologist is the one with the easiest to fake results.

But if he's a Traitor in TKM there were exactly two possible setups - the one we have if he lying, or the one above. No way he comes out with a first claim which gives him a 50% chance of being auto-lynched.

Is making a mistake that unlikely?

[Jimmmmm]

Please lynch Jimmmmm after my flip though, because it will be obvious he is scum by then.

How would it be obvious?

[Ichimaru Gin]

So let's pretend "1-shot BP Commuter" is a typo, since it is, and it really says "1-shot Commuter".

Want to reanalyze?

Wait. . .
After checking the thread I see the 1-shot BP Commuter was a mod typo so setup #4 is entirely possible--and that's why it's me vs. silverspawn.
That explains why people came to that conclusion.

And, setup #4 actually makes the most sense given the incredible lack of kills if we actually had a SK.
Back to vote: Silverspawn

PPE: a bunch

Wouldn't the correct conclusion be that it's you vs. Silverspawn vs. Jimmmmm?

There is still the outside chance that Jimmmmm is lying, but I was only voting him due to my erroneous setup interpretation. That would also mean that both D2 wagons were on scum, which strikes me as pretty unlikely.

PPE: I completely spaced on the mod error and thought that the setup could only be #6

[Ichimaru Gin]

My PPE is in reference to Jimmmmm's most recent post.

[Jimmmmm]

To Jimmmmm:

Ichi claimed at L-1 (right?) on Day 2.  He could likely have been the lynch.  Now

But in the case of Row 3, [...] The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

This is true, but it requires some thinking about the setup.  Is it possible he just looked at all the PR's that weren't on Row 3 U Column 3, that is, {Watcher, Goon Cop, Psychologist}, and picked one?  Out of these three, psychologist has the advantage that he doesn't really need to "clear" people; it's not as accountable.  He gets "can't kill" and the turn up Mafia or SK, well, maybe they had already killed.

I think your argument requires optimal play.  Honestly, if I was coming up with a fake claim, there's a good chance I might not choose carefully enough.

From you it's certainly Silver vs. Ichi.  Your argument implies Ichi couldn't have claimed what he did as scum, so it has to be Silver.  Is there another reason you think it's Silver (besides the opportunistic fear of having 3 IC's)?

For the rest of us, we have no reason to believe Jimmmm is confirmed, right?

If it isn't clear, I'm operating under the assumption that all town PR's have claimed, so there aren't two liars in the set of four claimers.

I appreciate this point, as scum incompetence is pretty much the only counterpoint. I suspect, especially with scum lynched Yesterday, that they would have thought about/discussed a massclaim Today. If they didn't, silver's claim seems much more like it could have been on the fly than Ichi's.

[Witherweaver]

But they can't have discussed---they don't have a QT together.

[Jimmmmm]

Unless the Traitor was recruited - whether or not it was discussed between two people is a fairly minor point.