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[ashersky]

To follow on, Ichi, as traitor, has 3 safe claims: psych, goon cop, bodyguard.

I don't see any of those three being "safe" in the sense Jimmmmm is arguing.  In all cases, depending on which setup we are in, he gets caught 50% of the time.

[silverspawn]

okay, let me try to follow Jimmm's quote anyway.

obligatory setup:
Row1      Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
Row2      Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
Row3      1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
Row4      1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
Column1  Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
Column2  Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
Column3  1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
Column4  Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3).

that's right

In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.

yes

But in the case of Row 3, [...] The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

that's right too.

So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.

So, the argument here is that, although he does not immediately get counterclaimed, his claim is still not good because it requires two of the other claimers to be false in order to be true. The other claims only require one claim to be false - the psychologist claim. Then they are in Row3. So, upon analyzing it, we would come to the conclusion that his claim is false, and lynch him, which means he really only had 50% safeclaim chance, not 100%.

That seems to be true, but I honestly doubt how relevant it is. I think whoever fakeclaimed analyzed his probability, like ash did, but I doubt that he thought this far. Maybe he did. This point is not completely irrelevant.

But it is a pain to follow, because you explain so little. that's why I refused to dig into your setup posts before.

[ashersky]

We also knew this before, differently, since we tested for BP Townie before the full claim.

[silverspawn]

okay, it seems like ash and I are thinking the same thing here

I'd like to add one more thing though - the fact that Jimmmm is even making this argument indicates heavily that he is town.  The decision whom to lynch was basically between Jimmmm and Ichi. Ash's post was saying that we should lynch Ichi. So why should scum!Jimmmm make a case for the opposing argument? Of course, even for town!Jimmmm, it might be smarter not to make make his last post, but it's more believable for town I think.

[silverspawn]

yea and the traitor is a much better target than the goon anyway.

vote: IG

[silverspawn]

that's L-2. Let's not accidentally derphammer during all of this setup talk.

[silverspawn]

We also knew this before, differently, since we tested for BP Townie before the full claim.

uh... what? Ichi claimed before we asked for BP's. I don't get what you mean here.

[silverspawn]

I appreciate Ashersky's analysis and the conclusion that he comes to which is it is either me or silver who is lying. Unfortunately, he has decided that it would be better to lynch someone who has gotten unfair suspicion this entire game and nearly mislynched by scum multiple times, over a known liar (in the context of this game) who is going to get away with one of the biggest scum plays I've ever seen.
Not too sure if there's a ton I can do to avert this. I've made my claim and done my best to offer town what information and reads I have. Eevee is of course going to join my wagon to save himself.
I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

Oh man, suck it up. I made a strategic decision to fake a non-PR. This argument is not even good if you accept that it's policy. If you can't handle this kind of thing, don't play mafia.

[Jimmmmm]

ash, that's a big wall of posts for a very wrong conclusion.

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

False.

If Ichi was a Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup, he knew that the Town PRs are either Commuter, JK and Detective (Column 3) or BP, JK and Bodyguard (Row 3). In the case of Column 3, which we now know is the real one if Ichi is lying, then he's fine, Psychologist is a safe claim.

But in the case of Row 3, Psychologist would be an absolutely disastrous claim. The four claims would then be BP, JK, Bodyguard and Psychologist, and there are no possible setups which have a Psychologist and two of the others - the only possible setup with these four claims is Row 3, which excludes Psychologist.

So a Traitor in TKM would absolutely not claim Psychologist without more information about what other roles are present.

ash arguing otherwise is extremely scummy.

I truly don't understand what you are talking about.

There are two possible setups with TKM, and neither have a psychologist in it.  Do in either case, it is a safe claim because he can't be counter claimed.  In no other case was it sensible to fake claim psychologist.

Dude. Four people claim. They claim:

Bulletproof.
Jailkeeper.
Bodyguard.
Psychologist.

Have a look at the possible setups and tell me how many include 3 of these and what the odd one out is.

[Jimmmmm]

I don't see any of those three being "safe" in the sense Jimmmmm is arguing.  In all cases, depending on which setup we are in, he gets caught 50% of the time.

50% is safe in the sense that you get a chance to argue against the other person as opposed to being caught 100% of the time.

[faust]

I uh... don't feel too good about ash's analysis. For one, it ignores the fact that silver came out saying: "I'm a PR, and I want to claim last". The whole argument is based on the theory that silver chose to fakeclaim JK and claimed PR after that, as opposed to the other way round (which I think is more likely).

[faust]

Also, don't feel good about Eevee. If silver tells the truth, Eevee is likely scum (probably mafia goon). He is now eagerly jumping the Ichi wagon, who would - by analysis - be his partner. This is basically a game-losing move if this is the scum team.

[faust]

I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.

[Eevee]

Also, don't feel good about Eevee. If silver tells the truth, Eevee is likely scum (probably mafia goon). He is now eagerly jumping the Ichi wagon, who would - by analysis - be his partner. This is basically a game-losing move if this is the scum team.

Why does that make you feel bad about me?

[Eevee]

I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.

You. I think IG's partner is most likely to be you.

[faust]

Also, don't feel good about Eevee. If silver tells the truth, Eevee is likely scum (probably mafia goon). He is now eagerly jumping the Ichi wagon, who would - by analysis - be his partner. This is basically a game-losing move if this is the scum team.

Why does that make you feel bad about me?

Eh, I think I started this post with a different thought in mind.

[faust]

I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.

You. I think IG's partner is most likely to be you.

Of course, that's the easy way out.

[2.71828.....]

Vote Count 3.3
 
silverspawn (2): Jimmmmm, faust
Ichimaru Gin (3): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn

Not Voting (3): Ichimaru Gin, jotheonah, witherweaver

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Friday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.

[faust]

Vote Count 3.3
 
silverspawn (2): Jimmmmm, faust
Ichimaru Gin (3): ashersky, Eevee, silverspawn

Not Voting (3): Ichimaru Gin, jotheonah, witherweaver

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.  The deadline for Day 3 will be Friday, October 27 at 5 pm forum time.

October 27 is not a Friday.

[2.71828.....]

The deadline is Monday, October 27.  Sorry about that.  Will correct for future vote counts.

[silverspawn]

I think Eevee is scum, and that he's fine with the lynch of his partner. he's in a bad spot, doing this might save him.

but even if you don't like ash's analysis, you can't really deny that the points he is making is valid. i mean, it's not really a matter of opinion.

[silverspawn]

acutally wait, does eevee even know that it is his partner if he is the goon? i think traitor knew mafia, not the other way. then it doesn't even matter.

[silverspawn]

Based on this, I believe there is only one scenario where Ichimaru Gin fakeclaims Psychologist, and that is as the Mafia Traitor in a TKM setup.

yea. eevee can just go on the wagon and hope that ash is wrong. he doesn't know more than we do.

[Witherweaver]

I guess I'll wait and see what others whom I find townier think. Letting silver get away with this is simply unbelievable. I'm sure you'll lynch him after my flip, but you'll be down town a strong town PR (admittedly less strong later in the game). Also, now that you've decided that either me or silver is scum, who do you think each of our partner's would be?

The question here is actually quite interesting, really. People on the Ichi wagon, who do you think his partner is? Do you think it's Eevee? Because that makes no sense to me.

If Ichi is scum, he's very likely the Traitor.  So he didn't have a "partner"; Hydrad did. 

Why doesn't Eevee/Hydrad + Ichi make sense?

[jotheonah]

I don't understand why we are lynching from the PR pool. Let me lay out my reasoning again.

1) Even in the no SK scenario, the VT pool and the PR pool have one scum each, so neither is inherently better.
2) In the SK scenario, the VT pool is twice as likely to hit scum
3) While there's a lack of consensus on whether Ichi or Silver is scum in the PR pool, there seems to be pretty good agreement that Eevee is the partner (or the SK).
4) A PR mislynch here kills a PR, a VT mislynch kills a VT. Obviously the latter is preferable.

So it seems to me there are 4 good reasons to lynch Eevee and no good reasons (except I suppose information) to lynch a PR claim. Yet everyone is voting Ichi. Why?

vote: Eevee