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[ashersky]

Well, or if one set ends up being four.  Either way, we have a much smaller set to look.

Can't end up being 4.  No matter what item sudgy claims, unless we know what either XP or Arch has, it won't work.

[Witherweaver]

Yes, but look.  Take your example.  We can deduce that scum must lie in either {Bandage set, Mag set}.

We cut down the field by half.

I'm saying the liar is in whatever set has Arch in it.

We're saying the same thing.  Except how will we know what set Arch was in?  We won't.

There's also the small chance he just didn't send anything.

Well we'll know one of two sets, the other being the ones Xerxes really had.

Yes, this is operating under the assumption that Archetype sent an item to Sudgy.  So you're right we have to consider that, but he did say he was going to, and he was Town, so it's a decent one.

[Voltaire]

Especially scummy to me was your post calling him out for "going quiet" I just don't like those sort of posts... meta analyzing availability is something scum does.

Like...not trusting the IC? Not sending him items because he didn't show up at deadline? Etc?

This felt like a stronger point in my head.

[Witherweaver]

Plus Xerxes said this:

Oh, I didn't send anything to anyone because I wasn't sure what the plan was. I still have 1 bandage and 2 papers.

long before he was caught.  There's a good chance the bandage part is true.  So if Xerxes is Bandage, and Sudgy is one of the others, then we have some fairly compelling evidence that there is a liar in the remaining one.  Yes there are possibilities that it's wrong, but I feel it's good info to have.

[Voltaire]

catching up btw

[yuma]

Especially scummy to me was your post calling him out for "going quiet" I just don't like those sort of posts... meta analyzing availability is something scum does.

Like...not trusting the IC? Not sending him items because he didn't show up at deadline? Etc?

This felt like a stronger point in my head.

the context is completely different. xerxes "disappeared" for a few minutes. Sudgy deliberately didn't post as an IC. And one is questioning alignment the other is questioning... well... questioning commitment and involvement in the game. I am not trying to lynch sudgy obviously. You were trying to lynch xerxes and using rationale that I don't like to push it.

But like I said before, I think it is all aside as it is becoming apparent that xerxes will flip scum and thus much of what I felt about you is set aside as most of it was contingent on when I felt that xerxes would likely be a mislynch.

[Voltaire]

We get no further info if sudgy claims his starting item, but it does tell scum everything, because they'll know which of the two items left Xerxes actually had.  They'll have full item information and we will not.

So FOS: WW for pushing this.  Sudgy, do NOT claim your starting item.

Someone hammer Xerxes.

Huge FOS on ash for this. Assumes xerxes is scum then assumes scum doesn't know his items.

!!!!

[Voltaire]

I see WW already pointed this out. Good.

[Voltaire]

I trust WW and I don't trust ash. So sudgy should do whatever WW is asking.

[ashersky]

We get no further info if sudgy claims his starting item, but it does tell scum everything, because they'll know which of the two items left Xerxes actually had.  They'll have full item information and we will not.

So FOS: WW for pushing this.  Sudgy, do NOT claim your starting item.

Someone hammer Xerxes.

Huge FOS on ash for this. Assumes xerxes is scum then assumes scum doesn't know his items.

!!!!

WTF are you talking about?  Scum will know because they already know.  Town won't know because we won't ever know.

[ashersky]

We get no further info if sudgy claims his starting item, but it does tell scum everything, because they'll know which of the two items left Xerxes actually had.  They'll have full item information and we will not.

So FOS: WW for pushing this.  Sudgy, do NOT claim your starting item.

Someone hammer Xerxes.

Huge FOS on ash for this. Assumes xerxes is scum then assumes scum doesn't know his items.

!!!!

WTF are you talking about?  Scum will know because they already know.  Town won't know because we won't ever know.

100% clear Volt is scrambling scum with his partner caught.  This was just a ridiculous leapt of logic on his part.  And it's because he knows what Xp has.

To reiterate, scum know all but the starting items of SUDGY and ARCH.  If sudgy claims, they'll know all because they already know xp's item.

[ashersky]

Happy to die now so long as you lynch xp's and volt.

[Witherweaver]

We get no further info if sudgy claims his starting item, but it does tell scum everything, because they'll know which of the two items left Xerxes actually had.  They'll have full item information and we will not.

So FOS: WW for pushing this.  Sudgy, do NOT claim your starting item.

Someone hammer Xerxes.

Huge FOS on ash for this. Assumes xerxes is scum then assumes scum doesn't know his items.

!!!!

WTF are you talking about?  Scum will know because they already know.  Town won't know because we won't ever know.

100% clear Volt is scrambling scum with his partner caught.  This was just a ridiculous leapt of logic on his part.  And it's because he knows what Xp has.

To reiterate, scum know all but the starting items of SUDGY and ARCH.  If sudgy claims, they'll know all because they already know xp's item.

But then the only unknown for scum is  whether Sudgy started with X and received one of Y from Arch or started with Y and received one of X from Arch.  So they know it's either 2X 1Y or 1X 2Y.   (They know what X and Y are.)

Well, assuming Arch sent something.  Which they would know.  If Arch didn't send anything, then yeah they wouldn't know which extra 2 items Sudgy has. 

So yeah there's a risk.  I guess the big concern is scum knowing if Sudgy can hit a critical 4 of something.  But they already have additional unknowns of what item Sudgy gets tonight and what item Yuma (if he's town) may send Sudgy tonight.  So I don't know if this extra one (possibly two) known item makes a key difference.  It seems to me that the benefit of isolating a subset were scum is very likely to be is greater than the risk. 

[ashersky]

Vote: Voltaire

I think we should pull a Jimmmm and leave the caught scum around for easy lynching later.  It's clear we'll catch his partners through interactions, and I'm seeing them come together already since he's shot himself in the foot.

Voltaire: have you ever had a best friend that you caught sleeping with your girlfriend?  That's the level of betrayal I'm feeling from you right now (in the context of the game).  You did a great job of buddying this game, and I bought it.  I'm sorry I did.  I won't be interacting with you anymore (in this game).

I am willing to vote for the following subset of players, in descending order of preference, and will only change my vote at the behest of sudgy:

Voltaire
ashersky
faust
WW
yuma
Xerxes

I'm confident the three scum we seek are within that five players, based on what we've seen so far on Days 1 and 2, especially looking at interactions with and on XP.  Voltaire for over-the-top scumminess, faust for D1 stuff and odd defenders, WW for his too-good-to-be-true towniness and his IC-item fishing, yuma for my townread on him + defense of faust, and XP for being caught scum.

One very good course of action would be to just lynch XP and figure stuff out on D3.  If that's what sudgy prefers, I'll adhere to it.  But I do think a Jimmmmm is worth considering.  It would have helped town (I think) in Choc Fact when he caught me as a Cop.  It would be useful here.  You'd have to be strong about ignoring everything XP says.  We've never tried it before on f.ds and it's worth a shot.

I'm open to listening to sudgy and a few others, but not XP or Voltaire at this point.

[ashersky]

We get no further info if sudgy claims his starting item, but it does tell scum everything, because they'll know which of the two items left Xerxes actually had.  They'll have full item information and we will not.

So FOS: WW for pushing this.  Sudgy, do NOT claim your starting item.

Someone hammer Xerxes.

Huge FOS on ash for this. Assumes xerxes is scum then assumes scum doesn't know his items.

!!!!

WTF are you talking about?  Scum will know because they already know.  Town won't know because we won't ever know.

100% clear Volt is scrambling scum with his partner caught.  This was just a ridiculous leapt of logic on his part.  And it's because he knows what Xp has.

To reiterate, scum know all but the starting items of SUDGY and ARCH.  If sudgy claims, they'll know all because they already know xp's item.

But then the only unknown for scum is  whether Sudgy started with X and received one of Y from Arch or started with Y and received one of X from Arch.  So they know it's either 2X 1Y or 1X 2Y.   (They know what X and Y are.)

Well, assuming Arch sent something.  Which they would know.  If Arch didn't send anything, then yeah they wouldn't know which extra 2 items Sudgy has. 

So yeah there's a risk.  I guess the big concern is scum knowing if Sudgy can hit a critical 4 of something.  But they already have additional unknowns of what item Sudgy gets tonight and what item Yuma (if he's town) may send Sudgy tonight.  So I don't know if this extra one (possibly two) known item makes a key difference.  It seems to me that the benefit of isolating a subset were scum is very likely to be is greater than the risk.

I'll say this again, and you may even be agreeing with me, but I can't tell:

Scum knows everything we know, plus:

--XP's real starter item, and whether he sent it

That's it.  Now, here's what we (town) don't know:

--XP's real starter item, and whether he sent it
--Arch's starter item, and whether he sent it
--sudgy's starter item

If sudgy claims his starter item, town still doesn't know the first two points up there.  However, since scum already knows the first point, they will learn the second point.  By learning all points, they will have a full inventory list for sudgy's possessions, will know what we can build and deploy, and will be able to base their night actions on that.

I think this is bad.

[Witherweaver]

Okay yes that's true.  But they already have the full inventory modulo the 1X-2Y vs. 2X-1Y that I pointed out before. 

The benefit, however, is that we all get the extra bit of information on which two sets of three players the other scum is.  And with a somewhat reasonable assumption, we can narrow it down to which set of three.  That's a pretty big plus, I think, especially if we can add on other interactions, etc. to deduce where that player is. 

Sudgy already has the info, so I guess he can decide whether he should let us know or not.  And if he lives long enough, he can let us know at a later time, if that's better.  There's just a risk there. 

[ashersky]

Okay yes that's true.  But they already have the full inventory modulo the 1X-2Y vs. 2X-1Y that I pointed out before. 

The benefit, however, is that we all get the extra bit of information on which two sets of three players the other scum is.  And with a somewhat reasonable assumption, we can narrow it down to which set of three.  That's a pretty big plus, I think, especially if we can add on other interactions, etc. to deduce where that player is. 

Sudgy already has the info, so I guess he can decide whether he should let us know or not.  And if he lives long enough, he can let us know at a later time, if that's better.  There's just a risk there.

I guess is the 1X-2Y vs. 2X-1Y sufficiently unknown enough for scum to not be totally sure of what could happen?  If it doesn't really matter either way, then there's less harm in getting the information out there.  So I agree with you there, if that's the case.

In the end, definitely up to sudgy.  I'm usually one to argue for more info out in the open.  I'm just worried that, given we're in such a good spot right now, giving away more information to scum isn't helping us.

[XerxesPraelor]

vote: Xerxes
Let's cut this day short; I'm going to get lynched anyways.

[Voltaire]

We get no further info if sudgy claims his starting item, but it does tell scum everything, because they'll know which of the two items left Xerxes actually had.  They'll have full item information and we will not.

So FOS: WW for pushing this.  Sudgy, do NOT claim your starting item.

Someone hammer Xerxes.

Huge FOS on ash for this. Assumes xerxes is scum then assumes scum doesn't know his items.

!!!!

WTF are you talking about?  Scum will know because they already know.  Town won't know because we won't ever know.

100% clear Volt is scrambling scum with his partner caught.  This was just a ridiculous leapt of logic on his part.  And it's because he knows what Xp has.

To reiterate, scum know all but the starting items of SUDGY and ARCH.  If sudgy claims, they'll know all because they already know xp's item.

That's what I'm saying about you!!! And XP hammered. Crap...?

[Voltaire]

Voltaire: have you ever had a best friend that you caught sleeping with your girlfriend?  That's the level of betrayal I'm feeling from you right now (in the context of the game).  You did a great job of buddying this game, and I bought it.  I'm sorry I did.  I won't be interacting with you anymore (in this game).

Ash is also scum. What - the hell. When did I ever buddy you? Never? Ever. Seriously. I never did this. Re-read. Never. Seriously. Can't betray you if I rarely/never had a town read on you!

[Voltaire]

But christ, explicitly insane ash is town!ash. I hate this.

[ashersky]

I can't help it, you bait me so.

XP didn't hammer, so no reason for you to be saying "crap" like your chances have been squashed at a win.

[Voltaire]

No, scum, he has to be. There's no way.

PPE: I thought XP was at L-1, is he not? unvote everything, catching up right now?

[Voltaire]

There is no way WW can't be town, ash. No way! How is what he's doing not insanely pro-town to the point where if he's scum we should let him keep going because he's playing the strongest pro-town game?

What's the vote, where is XP if he isn't hammered? Self-votes make me nervously re-evaluate.

[Voltaire]

Vote count?