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[mcmcsalot]

Well who do you think it is? Scotty?

I have no clue, the draft honestly does not clear you, because if you win, your choice makes sense. Though I believe the threat of being shot is still high enough you wouldn't have done it. So axxle or scott, I have no idea of what scott has done all game. I should reread scott and axxle. Axxle is the only one who vocally stated he would not try to get sk conversion. However would he say that as sk? probably not as not only makes him a more likely sk, it singles him out. so yes scotty

vote: scotty

[mcmcsalot]

One defense, why would I not have shot robz already, his tendecy to lynch me is huuuuuge

[Robz888]

One defense, why would I not have shot robz already, his tendecy to lynch me is huuuuuge

I mean, you had to kill the absolute ICs.

[Robz888]

I think there are some good reasons it can't be Axxle. I think the likelihood of mcmc or Scotty is roughly equal, but mcmc is slightly more likely.

[faust]

"One should die proudly when it is no longer possible to live proudly."
- Friedrich Nietzsche

Vote Count 5.1

mcmcsalot (1): Axxle
scott_pilgrim (1): mcmcsalot

Not Voting (2): Robz888, scott_pilgrim

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Day 5 ends on May 4 at 10 am forum time.

[Axxle]

One defense, why would I not have shot robz already, his tendecy to lynch me is huuuuuge

I mean, you had to kill the absolute ICs.

And why kill Robz? I mean every town with their dying breath has said "please lynch robz when I die". He'd be an easy mislynch for you tomorrow.

[mcmcsalot]

One defense, why would I not have shot robz already, his tendecy to lynch me is huuuuuge

I mean, you had to kill the absolute ICs.

have all the kills been on absolute ic's? and you have been a psuedo IC for a while.

[Robz888]

One defense, why would I not have shot robz already, his tendecy to lynch me is huuuuuge

I mean, you had to kill the absolute ICs.

have all the kills been on absolute ic's? and you have been a psuedo IC for a while.

I agree, but very few people have recognized that, and I was less an IC than Voltaire, and a little less than sudgy.

[mcmcsalot]

One defense, why would I not have shot robz already, his tendecy to lynch me is huuuuuge

I mean, you had to kill the absolute ICs.

have all the kills been on absolute ic's? and you have been a psuedo IC for a while.

I agree, but very few people have recognized that, and I was less an IC than Voltaire, and a little less than sudgy.

but if i'm sk I need to survive this lynch and thats it. Sudgy puts me in a much better position to do that than you. I don't care that you are a little less of an ic I care about the lynch being anyone but me(if i'm sk) I think I kill you here everytime

[mcmcsalot]

also i don't pick the same draft number as my player list number if i am sk, that makes ZERO SENSE I pick a low but not too low number like 2/3/4

[Axxle]

unvote

What are you thinking, Scott?

[scott_pilgrim]

Coming into today I was pretty sure it was mcmc, but now I just have no idea.  I mean you guys can't all be town.  I think mcmc's point that he picked his player number (which was 14, so pretty high) is actually a really interesting one and would be pretty strange if he was the SK.  I mean I guess the idea would be he wants to WIFOM us but he's not psychic and he really should have preferred a better shot at a conversion or at least a good PR over a small thing that might save him if he manages to make it to lylo.

I think Robz has looked pretty scummy for the last day or so, but the fact is still that he got first pick and went for slot 1.  I had come up with that narrative earlier describing a case where he makes a bunch of risky lies as scum, but I think that was only possible if we saw only one shot on N3.  Since we saw two shots on N3, we know that he really did get first pick and go for slot 1.  I am not so confident in my gut read on Robz that I am going to let that outweigh how little I would expect Robz to not go for a conversion as SK with first pick.

Why did people think you (Axxle) were town again?  All we have is that you are confirmed bus driver who switched ash and Robz N2, I feel like there was something else?

[Axxle]

Why did people think you (Axxle) were town again?  All we have is that you are confirmed bus driver who switched ash and Robz N2, I feel like there was something else?

That and I didn't go for an SK conversion role is what people point to most often. I haven't paid too much attention to why people think I'm town because I don't really care.

[mcmcsalot]

I think it's like 40/60 axxle/Scott

[Robz888]

Scoty's number choice was 16, which is even stranger than mcmc's. So at least from me and Axxle's perspective, the number argument would lean us toward mcmc.

[Robz888]

The reason I have been saying Axxle is definitely town is because he picked a slot that didn't have conversion, took a PR that is only sort of helpful to SK, and then used it on Night 2, not to save himself but for pro-town reasons.

It just doesn't make any sense for him to be SK.

[Robz888]

Okay, yeah, Axxle is out. I mean if he is the SK, I guess he wins. It's just too implausible that he would do all that though and think it could work out. Right?

[mcmcsalot]

Okay, yeah, Axxle is out. I mean if he is the SK, I guess he wins. It's just too implausible that he would do all that though and think it could work out. Right?

Makes sense.

[Robz888]

Well, I'm not going to vote for Axxle, and I'm not going to talk myself into voting for Scotty. So I guess I'm going to vote for mcmcsalot.

I really, really don't want to blow it for town. It's interesting to be in this situation again so soon--and with Axxle and Scotty again!--just like Adventure Time. This scenario is I think very different though. In Adventure Time, I was basically on tilt, desperate to uncover the clues that would out the final mafia, and I was really afraid of letting down the speccies.

Here, well obviously I don't want to let down the speccies, but I feel much less responsible. The Adventure Time puzzle was solvable, whereas I'm not sure this one is. There really isn't a reason for anyone still alive to be an SK, but someone is, and I think it's basically going to be random whether we get him or not at this point.

[scott_pilgrim]

Is 1-shot bus driver considered to be better or worse than or roughly equal to ninja for an SK in this set-up?  I have trouble understanding the utility of bus driver for any alignment, it seems like it's just a guessing game (of course it worked out very nicely for town in this game, but that was very lucky).  Axxle got 13th pick so I don't think it would be unreasonable for him to just go for a weaker slot as SK (especially since I think he even said he wouldn't go for a conversion as SK).  So then there's just a problem of why did he use his shot when he did rather than saving it to try to save himself later, and yeah that seems like it would be a really odd play for the SK.  I guess I don't know whether I find that to be stranger than mcmc's number choice as SK though.  I can imagine there being some weird reason Axxle really thought he had to do what he did N2 for his own survival, that we just haven't thought of yet, whereas the only explanation that makes sense for mcmc's number choice is that he thought of his plan for how he would choose as town, got assigned SK, and stuck to his plan so that if he had to claim it he would look townier.

I don't know, it's honestly a toss-up for me and I think I feel the same way as Robz, that if we lose it won't have been something we can blame ourselves for, the SK just played really well and we're just taking a guess at who it is.  Of course, the candidates that it's a toss-up between for me are different than his.  I still need to think more about whether there's any reasonable explanation for Axxle's use of bus driver early on as SK, because if there's not then it just has to be mcmc.

[Robz888]

Scotty, I hear you, it's just too many things we would need to overlook for Axxle. Like, okay, he's SK and he's not going to bother going for conversion (already I find this kind of dubious). So he goes for this super weak PR category? I mean, why pursue Slot 6 over Slot 7, for instance? Even if he doesn't want to become a Lover, wouldn't he much rather have an additional 1-shot BP protection? And I don't think Slot 7 is like way more likely to be picked than Slot 6. (As it turns out, yes, it was, but I think it's really weird that multiple people wanted Neighborizer...) Bus Driver is actually on a lower tier of things the mafia might want.

So there's all that, making Axxle very unlikely. Then the timing of his claim and using his power, also tends him toward townie.

I mean, Axxle is a very, very savvy and unorthodox player. Unorthodox in the sense that he comes from this other mafia community where the norms of accepted play are a little different than ours.

It won't shock me if all of the above is wrong and Axxle is the SK. But if we lynch someone else, and it's Axxle, I'm going to just shrug and say "Well, bummer." But if we lynch Axxle and he's NOT the SK, I'm going to say (to myself), "Robz, you idiot, you knew that didn't make any sense."

So yeah, I'm not lynching Axxle.

[Robz888]

In fact, my gut is even saying that Axxle is scummier than Scotty and mcmc (mostly just because Scott and mcmc are so damn townie). But my gut is wrong all the time, and the facts strongly suggest otherwise.

[Axxle]

I'm going to be VLA till monday probably.

[faust]

"I secretly think reality exists so we can speculate about it."
- Slavoj Žižek

Vote Count 5.2

scott_pilgrim (1): mcmcsalot

Not Voting (3): Robz888, scott_pilgrim, Axxle

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Day 5 ends on May 4 at 10 am forum time.

[Axxle]

Request prods for all the persons.