Very well, Vote: PPS
The IC demanded it, no one will listen to better reasoning.
Thanks for the game.
What is this "better reasoning"? You've explained why you think we shouldn't lynch you, but that doesn't help us because we don't know your alignment. Obviously if we knew you were town we wouldn't be voting for you, your "probability" thing assumes you're town. (If it doesn't I totally don't know where you get that we have a higher chance of winning if we don't lynch you...) If it's random among me, you, and Axxle which of us is scum, then town has a 2/3 chance of winning. If you're Robz or shraeye or me and you're sure I'm town, then obviously we just lynch both you and Axxle and then it's a sure win. By voting yourself you're saying you're so sure Axxle is town that you're willing to kill a guaranteed townie just to improve the chances of lynching me.
If we lynch either Axxle or PPS today we lynch the other tomorrow, that is forgone and therefore a closed option and it resolves to a 30% chance of success. If we lynch scotty today we then reserve the forgone decision for tomorrow where it can be debated, if it needs to be. That means, if we mislynched you we reserve a 50% chance of getting right tomorrow.
I cannot weight Axxle over scotty in terms of who I am more certain is scum, they are 50/50 in my mind. I can however, weight which one is best lynched today using the above logic.
You are perfectly correct that it is therefore totally illogical to vote myself but the IC you are sheeping demands it. I am voting myself for the same reasons you are voting me. So, you tell me what is wrong with that reason.
What? So you're argument is that, if we lynch you today, that means we auto-lynch Axxle tomorrow, which, assuming you're town, means we have a 50% chance of winning (if I'm the other 50%). Whereas if we lynch Axxle today, and auto-lynch you tomorrow, so again, 50%. Whereas if you lynch me today, and then decide randomly between you and Axxle tomorrow, you have a 75% chance of lynching scum. Congratulations, you have shown us that if we knew you were town, we shouldn't lynch you.
Now let's work it out from the perspective of Robz, mail-mi, and shraeye, who have no idea whether you're town.
So there is one scum randomly among me, you, and Axxle. If we lynch you today, and then auto-lynch Axxle tomorrow, that's a 2/3 chance of catching scum. If we lynch Axxle today and auto-lynch you tomorrow, that's a 2/3 chance of catching scum. If we lynch me today and then randomly among you and Axxle tomorrow, that's still a 2/3 chance of catching scum. Even if the auto-lynch happens, it doesn't magically make the probability of catching scum any worse.
Now obviously, if you're pretty sure I'm town, you're just going to vote for you and Axxle, order doesn't matter. Having discussion on D5/D6 might help town's chances a little (though it's possible town says something stupid like I've apparently been doing this game and gets himself lynched), but nobody's going to change their vote to account for that small chance that it helps. That is, the difference in how sure people are that I'm town versus you or Axxle is much, much larger than the benefit we would get from extra discussion. If people are sure I'm town, they're not going to vote for me, even though it might somehow make us discuss things more tomorrow.
Actually, think of it this way: the people who aren't voting for me today are the same people who you're concerned will auto-lynch Axxle/you tomorrow. If they auto-lynch, it would be because they're so sure I'm town that they don't think any discussion will change that. If they're that sure I'm town, there's no way you're going to convince them to vote for me today.