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[Axxle]

PPS.

I want to post but I can't now that you've launched your little experiment.

[shraeye]

You can post.  Posting to say you can't post is useless

[ashersky]

Vote Count 4.7:

Axxle (1): shraeye
PPS (3): Robz888, scott_pilgrim, PPS
scott_pilgrim (1): Axxle

Not Voting (1): mail-mi

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 4 ends on March 25 at 8:00 a.m.

[shraeye]

Saying you have an answer and then waiting for 4 people to post possible answers so you cam pick the best sounding of them is not a strategy I will let you get away with.  If you have an answer to PPSs question, say it.

[Axxle]

Saying you have an answer and then waiting for 4 people to post possible answers so you cam pick the best sounding of them is not a strategy I will let you get away with.  If you have an answer to PPSs question, say it.

Why is Axxle not voting me? He's for sure dead tomorrow regardless.

I want everyone but Axxle to answer that question.

I'm an Axxle T-T

[Axxle]

Also, shraeye, there is literally NOTHING I can do to make you think I'm town. You're just going to spin it as scum since you're just that blind.

[scott_pilgrim]

Very well, Vote: PPS

The IC demanded it, no one will listen to better reasoning.

Thanks for the game.

What is this "better reasoning"?  You've explained why you think we shouldn't lynch you, but that doesn't help us because we don't know your alignment.  Obviously if we knew you were town we wouldn't be voting for you, your "probability" thing assumes you're town.  (If it doesn't I totally don't know where you get that we have a higher chance of winning if we don't lynch you...)  If it's random among me, you, and Axxle which of us is scum, then town has a 2/3 chance of winning.  If you're Robz or shraeye or me and you're sure I'm town, then obviously we just lynch both you and Axxle and then it's a sure win.  By voting yourself you're saying you're so sure Axxle is town that you're willing to kill a guaranteed townie just to improve the chances of lynching me.

If we lynch either Axxle or PPS today we lynch the other tomorrow, that is forgone and therefore a closed option and it resolves to a 30% chance of success. If we lynch scotty today we then reserve the forgone decision for tomorrow where it can be debated, if it needs to be. That means, if we mislynched you we reserve a 50% chance of getting right tomorrow.

I cannot weight Axxle over scotty in terms of who I am more certain is scum, they are 50/50 in my mind. I can however, weight which one is best lynched today using the above logic.

You are perfectly correct that it is therefore totally illogical to vote myself but the IC you are sheeping demands it. I am voting myself for the same reasons you are voting me. So, you tell me what is wrong with that reason.

What?  So you're argument is that, if we lynch you today, that means we auto-lynch Axxle tomorrow, which, assuming you're town, means we have a 50% chance of winning (if I'm the other 50%).  Whereas if we lynch Axxle today, and auto-lynch you tomorrow, so again, 50%.  Whereas if you lynch me today, and then decide randomly between you and Axxle tomorrow, you have a 75% chance of lynching scum.  Congratulations, you have shown us that if we knew you were town, we shouldn't lynch you.

Now let's work it out from the perspective of Robz, mail-mi, and shraeye, who have no idea whether you're town.

So there is one scum randomly among me, you, and Axxle.  If we lynch you today, and then auto-lynch Axxle tomorrow, that's a 2/3 chance of catching scum.  If we lynch Axxle today and auto-lynch you tomorrow, that's a 2/3 chance of catching scum.  If we lynch me today and then randomly among you and Axxle tomorrow, that's still a 2/3 chance of catching scum.  Even if the auto-lynch happens, it doesn't magically make the probability of catching scum any worse.

Now obviously, if you're pretty sure I'm town, you're just going to vote for you and Axxle, order doesn't matter.  Having discussion on D5/D6 might help town's chances a little (though it's possible town says something stupid like I've apparently been doing this game and gets himself lynched), but nobody's going to change their vote to account for that small chance that it helps.  That is, the difference in how sure people are that I'm town versus you or Axxle is much, much larger than the benefit we would get from extra discussion.  If people are sure I'm town, they're not going to vote for me, even though it might somehow make us discuss things more tomorrow.

Actually, think of it this way: the people who aren't voting for me today are the same people who you're concerned will auto-lynch Axxle/you tomorrow.  If they auto-lynch, it would be because they're so sure I'm town that they don't think any discussion will change that.  If they're that sure I'm town, there's no way you're going to convince them to vote for me today.

[pingpongsam]

Actually, think of it this way: the people who aren't voting for me today are the same people who you're concerned will auto-lynch Axxle/you tomorrow.  If they auto-lynch, it would be because they're so sure I'm town that they don't think any discussion will change that.  If they're that sure I'm town, there's no way you're going to convince them to vote for me today.

Right, that's what I said already. This is exactly why we have lost this game.

[pingpongsam]

Which is why I self-vote. The decisions are made the game is over. We may get lucky and Axxle flip scum. I have no strong reason to believe that will happen. There's nothing left to do.

[shraeye]

pps.  I had a thought while mowing.  Is there any chance that you lied about being a VT?  If so, we could very well win this game in 100% of the scenarios that exist.  Whether you're lying now by changing your answer, or lied as town in the past.

[pingpongsam]

PPS.

I want to post but I can't now that you've launched your little experiment.

No one is playing along. Go ahead and put your response out there. It was a trick setup the whole time, Axxle and I are both scum. Good thing town will win anyway because they are going to lynch us both without any of that silly thinking stuff left to do.

[pingpongsam]

pps.  I had a thought while mowing.  Is there any chance that you lied about being a VT?  If so, we could very well win this game in 100% of the scenarios that exist.  Whether you're lying now by changing your answer, or lied as town in the past.

I'm Town, why would I lie? I am VT as we will soon see.

[shraeye]

I could see a non-crazy scenario where in a town full of PRs and only 1 mafia, somebody says "i'm a VT" instead of pointing out exactly where an important role like Vig is.  In fact, Vig is a role that would guarantee us a win right now.

[pingpongsam]

I could see a non-crazy scenario where in a town full of PRs and only 1 mafia, somebody says "i'm a VT" instead of pointing out exactly where an important role like Vig is.  In fact, Vig is a role that would guarantee us a win right now.

Agreed. I am not a Vig. It would be sweet if I was, we probably wouldn't even have to be playing this day in that case.

[shraeye]

PPS, you are now arguing that axxle is town, despite the fact that EVERYBODY, even you, was nodding along to every Axxle-is-scum post I've made.

It seems to me that the reason you are arguing axxle is town and scotty is scum, is because THAT'S the scenario where we would leave you unlynched.  And you aren't arguing that Axxle is town because you believe it.  That looks really scummy.  And this comes from a stubborn player who at one point was yelling that you were town.  Your actions right now are not good town-actions.  It's perfectly alright for you to not want to be lynched.  I think that Robz is wrong in saying that mcmcs did the right thing by slipping quietly into the night. 

What *I* think is wrong, is that it really looks like you are now changing your perspective to say that scotty is scum ONLY because it's the perspective where lynching you is the worst idea.  Maybe I'm wrong here, but it feels more like you are saying "lynch scotty, not me" than you are saying "axxle is town, scotty is scum, I believe that because of X,Y,Z".

At this point, I would definitely lynch you, if only Axxle weren't manifestly scummier.

[shraeye]

EVERYBODY, even you, was nodding along to every Axxle-is-scum post I've made.

About this.  If everybody was nodding to my axxle-is-scum posts, why can't we do axxle first?  I'm very sold that it's axxle/PPS, but I haven't seen a single person disagree with me on Axxle except to say "yeah, you're right...but PPS! look at that!"

[shraeye]

I really really hope I can count on people to lynch Axxle if PPS flips town.  I'm on a mafia tear right now.  I'm feeling AWESOME.  And if this game gets lost despite the fact that I've managed to call EVERY scum, I will cry tears.  tears of frustration, because EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE ARE AGREEING WITH MY POINTS....the STITILLLLL want to lynch somebody else instead.

[pingpongsam]

PPS, you are now arguing that axxle is town, despite the fact that EVERYBODY, even you, was nodding along to every Axxle-is-scum post I've made.

It seems to me that the reason you are arguing axxle is town and scotty is scum, is because THAT'S the scenario where we would leave you unlynched.  And you aren't arguing that Axxle is town because you believe it.  That looks really scummy.  And this comes from a stubborn player who at one point was yelling that you were town.  Your actions right now are not good town-actions.  It's perfectly alright for you to not want to be lynched.  I think that Robz is wrong in saying that mcmcs did the right thing by slipping quietly into the night. 

What *I* think is wrong, is that it really looks like you are now changing your perspective to say that scotty is scum ONLY because it's the perspective where lynching you is the worst idea.  Maybe I'm wrong here, but it feels more like you are saying "lynch scotty, not me" than you are saying "axxle is town, scotty is scum, I believe that because of X,Y,Z".

At this point, I would definitely lynch you, if only Axxle weren't manifestly scummier.

None of what you are saying makes any sense considering I am voting for myself. I do not think Axxle is Town. nor do I think scotty is Town. I'm already lynched. It's either today or tomorrow. The game as a whole has decided they are not going to lynch scotty.

[pingpongsam]

I really really hope I can count on people to lynch Axxle if PPS flips town.  I'm on a mafia tear right now.  I'm feeling AWESOME.  And if this game gets lost despite the fact that I've managed to call EVERY scum, I will cry tears.  tears of frustration, because EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE ARE AGREEING WITH MY POINTS....the STITILLLLL want to lynch somebody else instead.

If I joined you on Axxle there aren't 2 more votes to make it happen. I am the de facto lynch today.

[shraeye]

The decisions are made the game is over. We may get lucky and Axxle flip scum. I have no strong reason to believe that will happen. There's nothing left to do.

Dude, this post says literally that.  You are upset that Axxle/PPS is a lynch pair, and are lamenting that if Axxle is indeed scum, then we're lucky.  Not skilled.  In fact you virtually said that word for word as well.

If Axxle flips scum tomorrow I will be relieved but I will count ourselves stupidly lucky as opposed to intelligently crafty.

[shraeye]

If I joined you on Axxle there aren't 2 more votes to make it happen. I am the de facto lynch today.

Join me on Axxle.  Why not?

[Robz888]

Shraeye, I only want to do PPS first because I don't trust you and mail-mi as much to lynch PPS tomorrow as much as I trust myself to lynch Axxle tomorrow. That is literally the only thing. We are going to lynch them both, I agree with you.

Let's stop clogging up the thread for mail-mi...

[pingpongsam]

The decisions are made the game is over. We may get lucky and Axxle flip scum. I have no strong reason to believe that will happen. There's nothing left to do.

Dude, this post says literally that.  You are upset that Axxle/PPS is a lynch pair, and are lamenting that if Axxle is indeed scum, then we're lucky.  Not skilled.  In fact you virtually said that word for word as well.

If Axxle flips scum tomorrow I will be relieved but I will count ourselves stupidly lucky as opposed to intelligently crafty.

Yes, because skill would be to remove the third outlier before choosing between the toss-up. Instead we are choosing to go straight to the toss-up without ever checking the 3rd outlier. We are artificially limiting our options with no good gain. I don't see it as sour grapes for being the lynch candidate just not comprehending why we have to do it so illogically.

[shraeye]

You can trust me to lynch PPS tomorrow if that exists.  His play today warrants that.  But I agree to leave the thread for mail-mi.  I'm just so wound up right now.

[pingpongsam]

I am scum putting myself at L-1 so that when I'm hammered I'll get the town cred tomorrow.