Here are all the votes cast against raerae, in order:
vote: shraeye
wrong.
vote: raerae?
^This is a nothing vote. It tells us nothing.
So we've got a pretty decent wagon on Shraeye, but it seems to have a pretty flimsy basis to me. Axxle originally voted because Shraeye's posts were supposedly just fluff, which isn't isn't that unusual at the beginning of the game, then confirmed it because Shraeye gave a newbie a little bit of a hard time. Then mail-mi and yuma basically jumped on the wagon without a contribution to the discussion beyond "yeah, what Axxle said!" And raerae's vote is a RVS holdover (I'm assuming that was RVS), so I'm just gonna put my vote on her until she changes hers or justifies it.
Vote: raerae
^This vote would tend ADK toward town, I think, because it puts raerae in danger. That first wagon against shraeye was never going anywhere, but a new, secondary wagon might.
Hey, Andrew, can we get your side of the story on this? You think shraeye was trying to paint you in an ugly way?
Also, another real name, I'm tweaking a bit...
how about your opinion too? how is andrew's opinion on my intent the one that you're interested in?
Vote: Andrew
So here's the deal, I wanted that question answered before I finalized this because on the reread I noticed that he sounded both knowledgeable and like a super-newbie. Ya know, "I don't know what's going on? Is this a thing? What about this other complicated thing that isn't normal for a newbie to know about?" It feels like he was fed info prior to the game but then also told to play up his newbie status. I wanted to hear what he'd have to say re: shraeye first to see if he'd actually have an opinion when pressed or if he'd just talk around an answer. Personally, I think the thing on shraeye is nonsense and I'm shocked it gained as much traction as it did.
vote: raerae
Her interaction with Andrew looks like she was setting him up for failure (and for a vote)... something I think I could only see scum doing--well maybe poor town play--either way, I don't like it.
^This was a point I agreed with at the time, I think it makes sense from town perspective. Of course, piling onto the wagon at this point might be a good way to ensure it doesn't ultimately succeed, since we recoil in horror at quickly forming wagons.
vote: raerae
What answer could he have given that you would not have replied the same way?
From my perspective you asked him a question and afterwards voted him for a reason unrelated to his answer.
^Same.
Yes, I definitely agree that people should be careful and make sure to consider how their claim will benefit town as a whole and not just themselves. I still feel like it would be very difficult for town to make a decision on whether someone else should claim though, since they don't know the player's role. Unless you're suggesting they should say something like:
If you're X, claim.
If you're Y, don't claim.
If you're Z, claim.
...
That could potentially work in theory, but if you want to go through every single case "If you're a cop and you targeted X N1, claim; if you're a cop and you targeted Y N1, don't claim; etc." that's just a lot of trouble to go to. The person who is potentially claiming will know their situation better than anyone else and will have put a lot more thought into it.
Anyway, that has no relevance to the game right now, since I don't think anyone has any immediate plans to claim anyway.
I feel like the way that raerae set up FTTW was intentional, and in the absence of anything scummier than that thus far, vote: raerae. I think that puts her at L-2.
^Either a townie vote, or vote from scum ready to bus. Busing is the pro-move, but a dangerous one. Would Scotty do it? I tend to say no.
I've tried to think about how raerae voting for me for no good reason would benefit town but I can't see how it would. So vote: raerae and that's L-1.
^Andrew is town.
Vote: raerae
^There's actually a lot of ways you can read this vote. One, is that this was a crazy thing to do unless you knew raerae was flipping scum, which is something scum Axxle would know and could smartly do for cred. Two, is that his explanation actually makes sense and makes him very townie. I actually read town on Axxle for other reasons, so.
Okay, so I think from all this that the wagon, IMO, is a scum wagon run up by scum. Scum who wanted to get their partner, raerae, up on an early wagon so she wouldn't be suspected later in the game. This is because of how quickly it rose/fell. So, based on this, vote: raerae.
^Raerae is down to 4 votes now, and mail-mi tries to get things going again. The interesting thing is that his analysis is probably spot on here, so I tend to acquit him. I guess it could be spot on because he is scum, though.
I've got some worthwhile thought.
Won't lynch; axxle, shraeye, Scott, Yuma, robz, mail-mi
Would lynch; pps, Andrew, ADK
Want to lynch; eevee, raerae
With that vote: raerae
^Well... is that a vote to bus, or not? That's the question. I could see it either way.
I'm here. I think I like the raerae lynch (I'm assuming no one else wants to vote Robz yet since no one has done so for several days). I don't like the way she's been acting but I also think we get some information from her flip. vote: raerae I think that's L-3 but I was wrong about that last time so someone else should check before getting close to a lynch.
^She's actually down into safer territory now, so this vote, well, yeah, you can see it either way.
Next, Eevee says he opposes the raerae lynch and doesn't explain why when I press him. Next next, ADK tries to get the Scott lynch going. And yua is interested in that alternative wagon. Any alternative wagon, basically.
If nobody else is behind a yuma lynch, then I want raerae.
Vote: raerae
^Yuma casts the vote that essentially makes raerae the lynch.
If nobody else is behind a yuma lynch, then I want raerae.
Vote: raerae
Or maybe it can happen? I don't like voting behind shraeye, but my read on raerae remains scummy regardless...
vote: raerae
This is L-1
Yuma joins, but then quickly unvotes. Tihs feels strained to me, like he wants to like he's genuinely willing to lynch raerae, but is actually not wanting to do it.
I dare people to lynch her and prove me wrong.
Okay. Vote: Raerae
^Innocent Child.
Vote: raerae
^Axxle hammers, for real this time.
Author
Topic: MXXXIX: Adventure Time! Mafia (Town Wins on D5!) (Read 129929 times)