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[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Wait why me? I jump of for a hour and all of a sudden I'm scum??? I say we lynch one of the beetles.  I'm gonna break down some numbers on why. Ok if we lynch one of the bettles we have a 50% of hitting scum and a 50% chance of hitting town. If we lynch a vt we have a 40% chance of hitting scum and a 60% chance of hitting town making it more likely to hit town than the other option. Now someone may say that these are just vts at mylo but remember that the monkey has chosen to claim vt so at ethier choice we have the chance of losing a pr. This is why I like the idea of lynching one of the bettles today because the numbers favor our chance at hitting scum more with that option. Also we're at mylo so it doesn't matter what role we lynch. ( Come on let's be realistic that bettle only has a 20 or 16% chance of hitting scum tonight if we lynch wrong so therefore I say we go with the numbers) Also I think WW is the other town vt.

[Awaclus]

Ok hold up awaclus your case is bull I WANT TO LYNCH A BETTLE. I've never said otherwise.

I noticed that earlier but chose to not point it out because it doesn't make that big of a difference. The key is that you're claiming that you have 40% odds of hitting scum if you lynch a VT, which is not true if you are a VT yourself as you claim to be, since they would be 50%, and that you're saying almost the exact same thing that pacovf was saying.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Ok hold up awaclus your case is bull I WANT TO LYNCH A BETTLE. I've never said otherwise.

I noticed that earlier but chose to not point it out because it doesn't make that big of a difference. The key is that you're claiming that you have 40% odds of hitting scum if you lynch a VT, which is not true if you are a VT yourself as you claim to be, since they would be 50%, and that you're saying almost the exact same thing that pacovf was saying.

I was laying out the overall numbers for the town based off the number of people in the game not my pm or reads. Therefore there is 5vts, 2 are scum 2/5 is 40%

[Awaclus]

Ok hold up awaclus your case is bull I WANT TO LYNCH A BETTLE. I've never said otherwise.

I noticed that earlier but chose to not point it out because it doesn't make that big of a difference. The key is that you're claiming that you have 40% odds of hitting scum if you lynch a VT, which is not true if you are a VT yourself as you claim to be, since they would be 50%, and that you're saying almost the exact same thing that pacovf was saying.

I was laying out the overall numbers for the town based off the number of people in the game not my pm or reads. Therefore there is 5vts, 2 are scum 2/5 is 40%

But why would you specifically have a preference towards lynching a Beetle since you know that the odds are 50% from your perspective either way?

[Witherweaver]

I'm more or less caught up now. Glad I haven't come back into the game dead.

gkrieg, remember how you figured me as an easy mislynch to push when you were scum? And how you mislynched me one or more times as a VT? I'm sorry I seem to come out with stuff that makes people want to vote for me when I'm trying to be useful, but I don't seem to have the knack for not doing so yet. Also, how much of your suspicion on me is based on thinking WW isn't scummy, and using a process of elimination? And how many times has scum!WW pulled the wool over everyone's eyes and won while everyone thought he was towny?

Are you trying to argue that I'm scum?

[Awaclus]

I don't think WW is scum.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Ok hold up awaclus your case is bull I WANT TO LYNCH A BETTLE. I've never said otherwise.

I noticed that earlier but chose to not point it out because it doesn't make that big of a difference. The key is that you're claiming that you have 40% odds of hitting scum if you lynch a VT, which is not true if you are a VT yourself as you claim to be, since they would be 50%, and that you're saying almost the exact same thing that pacovf was saying.

It doesn't make a big difference!! It's like half of your case that me and pacovf are scum buddies because we both tried to steer towards a vt lynch when we were going to "lynch LL"   

There 50% but in terms of lynching. If we lynch a bettle then we have two choices whereas with a by lynching a by we have 5 choices. I would rather analyze two people rather than 5. Plus theirs a pretty majority consensus I think that LL is scum (which I do think). Also why are fighting when you want to lynch a bettle too.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

I'm more or less caught up now. Glad I haven't come back into the game dead.

gkrieg, remember how you figured me as an easy mislynch to push when you were scum? And how you mislynched me one or more times as a VT? I'm sorry I seem to come out with stuff that makes people want to vote for me when I'm trying to be useful, but I don't seem to have the knack for not doing so yet. Also, how much of your suspicion on me is based on thinking WW isn't scummy, and using a process of elimination? And how many times has scum!WW pulled the wool over everyone's eyes and won while everyone thought he was towny?

Are you trying to argue that I'm scum?

I think you're town too but I'm not totally sure yet

[SpaceAnemone]

Though if SA is town and WW is scum, I don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous. Unless he is playing the long game in a blitz game. So if WW is scum, so is SA. If WW is town, then it's either Awaclus and Jake or Awaclus and SA. On the other hand, I doubt LL or Jake are scum with SA, since both put a third vote on SA.

This is a totally flawed piece of analysis. I'm town, and I think there's every possibility that WW is scum. You seem to be totally letting him off the hook for something he didn't even really do, if the fact that you "don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous" is really your excuse.

I had WW, LL, and Jake on my wagon at post #223, when, as you say, it "starts getting dangerous".

At post #237, LL unvotes. If you're giving anyone towncred for leaving a hot wagon, it probably ought to be LL, not WW.

Then at post #241, WW left to vote instead for Jake, pretty much as soon as I'd stopped looking like such a likely a target for the mislynch.

Can't everyone else see how flimsy and useless an argument that is?

PPE 7-ish

[Awaclus]

It doesn't make a big difference!! It's like half of your case that me and pacovf are scum buddies because we both tried to steer towards a vt lynch when we were going to "lynch LL"   

There 50% but in terms of lynching. If we lynch a bettle then we have two choices whereas with a by lynching a by we have 5 choices. I would rather analyze two people rather than 5. Plus theirs a pretty majority consensus I think that LL is scum (which I do think). Also why are fighting when you want to lynch a bettle too.

98% of my case is that you said 40% instead of 50%.

[Awaclus]

Though if SA is town and WW is scum, I don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous. Unless he is playing the long game in a blitz game. So if WW is scum, so is SA. If WW is town, then it's either Awaclus and Jake or Awaclus and SA. On the other hand, I doubt LL or Jake are scum with SA, since both put a third vote on SA.

This is a totally flawed piece of analysis. I'm town, and I think there's every possibility that WW is scum. You seem to be totally letting him off the hook for something he didn't even really do, if the fact that you "don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous" is really your excuse.

I had WW, LL, and Jake on my wagon at post #223, when, as you say, it "starts getting dangerous".

At post #237, LL unvotes. If you're giving anyone towncred for leaving a hot wagon, it probably ought to be LL, not WW.

Then at post #241, WW left to vote instead for Jake, pretty much as soon as I'd stopped looking like such a likely a target for the mislynch.

Can't everyone else see how flimsy and useless an argument that is?

PPE 7-ish

Having LL and Jake on your wagon isn't dangerous because they're both scum.

[gkrieg13]

Can everyone say which of LL/RR they think is lying?

[Awaclus]

Can everyone say which of LL/RR they think is lying?

LL is lying.

[SpaceAnemone]

I'm more or less caught up now. Glad I haven't come back into the game dead.

gkrieg, remember how you figured me as an easy mislynch to push when you were scum? And how you mislynched me one or more times as a VT? I'm sorry I seem to come out with stuff that makes people want to vote for me when I'm trying to be useful, but I don't seem to have the knack for not doing so yet. Also, how much of your suspicion on me is based on thinking WW isn't scummy, and using a process of elimination? And how many times has scum!WW pulled the wool over everyone's eyes and won while everyone thought he was towny?

Are you trying to argue that I'm scum?

If one of the two of us has to be scum, then obviously it has to be you, from my perspective. I can't argue it exactly, because I don't have a strong case that doesn't rely on subjective information. What I'm trying to do is remind gkrieg to take into account the fact that he'll be playing into scum's hands if he scumreads me simply because you're being generally townread.

It's probably worse if you are town, really -- when I flip town, the only rescue for town comes from a correct RB at night, and then in N2, they'd have to pick between you (assuming they still believe that one of the two of us has to be scum), or an actual scum.

From my perspective, exactly one of {LL,RR} is scum, and then exactly two of {WW, Paco, Awa, Jake} are scum. I think Awaclus's actions are the most towny, and I'd had a reasonable townread on Paco... his recent argument fail runs against that, but then it runs against that precisely in your favour, which is at best confusing if you're really not scum. Jake is the person I'm most confident is scum, especially given Awaclus's recent case, which I totally agree with.

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Can everyone say which of LL/RR they think is lying?

LL is a scummy person

[Roadrunner7671]

Can everyone say which of LL/RR they think is lying?

LL is lying.

[SpaceAnemone]

Can everyone say which of LL/RR they think is lying?

I've just re-read them both, and I'm still not sure :-( I'm leaning towards LL lying simply because RR was on the verge of looking like an IC before he counterclaimed LL. I'm not sure how we'd have collectively reacted if RR had allowed everyone to assume he was Monkey.. when one of the claimed VTs turned around and tried to counterclaim Monkey, that would have been distinctly awkward fro the person who's already lied once.

The other thing in RR's favour is the QTs issue. He was pretty clear about not having a QT early on, and it was clearly something on his mind, which makes more sense if he's a PR with no QT, rather than just a VT with no QT, which seems normal enough to me. I'd accidentally read him earlier as being slightly anti-town in his assertion of Awaclus's townslip, in that I'd assumed that the targeting town PR would have a QT, because that's what's happened in the vast majority of games I've played in... so in claiming no-QT, I thought RR was inadvertently also claiming non-PR, which didn't seem completely pro-town.

[pacovf]

Though if SA is town and WW is scum, I don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous. Unless he is playing the long game in a blitz game. So if WW is scum, so is SA. If WW is town, then it's either Awaclus and Jake or Awaclus and SA. On the other hand, I doubt LL or Jake are scum with SA, since both put a third vote on SA.

This is a totally flawed piece of analysis. I'm town, and I think there's every possibility that WW is scum. You seem to be totally letting him off the hook for something he didn't even really do, if the fact that you "don't quite see WW leaving the wagon when it starts getting dangerous" is really your excuse.

I had WW, LL, and Jake on my wagon at post #223, when, as you say, it "starts getting dangerous".

At post #237, LL unvotes. If you're giving anyone towncred for leaving a hot wagon, it probably ought to be LL, not WW.

Then at post #241, WW left to vote instead for Jake, pretty much as soon as I'd stopped looking like such a likely a target for the mislynch.

Can't everyone else see how flimsy and useless an argument that is?

PPE 7-ish

Oh, mostly I have a very hard time seeing both you and WW being scum at the same time, and from there it's just process of elimination. Look at it this way, if WW is scum, why isn't he quickhammering you with one of {LL,RR} ?

@gkrieg: I don't have a strong preference between {LL,RR}, both have been scummy in different ways, and I would rather wait for a flip before choosing. If I had to give an answer now, I guess I would say RR is a bit scummier.

[Roadrunner7671]

RR was on the verge of looking like an IC before he counterclaimed

Really?

[SpaceAnemone]

Oh, mostly I have a very hard time seeing both you and WW being scum at the same time, and from there it's just process of elimination. Look at it this way, if WW is scum, why isn't he quickhammering you with one of {LL,RR} ?

Well, by that logic, you and Jake have to be the two VT-claimed scums. I think it's pretty likely, but I also think that there's a non-zero chance of it being only one of you, and the other scum (which would have to be WW or Awaclus) realising that you might have a better chance of willing if you don't expose yourselves enough to give the real Beetle a high enough chance of blocking you.

Anyway, either way I find that your lack of precision with the facts feels a lot more like scum trying to twist a set of occurrences into their chosen narrative than town trying to infer a game state based on facts.

[SpaceAnemone]

RR was on the verge of looking like an IC before he counterclaimed

Really?

Yes! Here's post #321, where Awaclus inferred that you're an IC, since at that point you were one of the three people who had not positively claimed to be a VT:

There's 2 VT in the setup.

And 5 VTs claimed, which means 3 of them are scum. And the 3 people who didn't claim VT are ICs.

[Witherweaver]

I'm more or less caught up now. Glad I haven't come back into the game dead.

gkrieg, remember how you figured me as an easy mislynch to push when you were scum? And how you mislynched me one or more times as a VT? I'm sorry I seem to come out with stuff that makes people want to vote for me when I'm trying to be useful, but I don't seem to have the knack for not doing so yet. Also, how much of your suspicion on me is based on thinking WW isn't scummy, and using a process of elimination? And how many times has scum!WW pulled the wool over everyone's eyes and won while everyone thought he was towny?

Are you trying to argue that I'm scum?

If one of the two of us has to be scum, then obviously it has to be you, from my perspective. I can't argue it exactly, because I don't have a strong case that doesn't rely on subjective information. What I'm trying to do is remind gkrieg to take into account the fact that he'll be playing into scum's hands if he scumreads me simply because you're being generally townread.

It's probably worse if you are town, really -- when I flip town, the only rescue for town comes from a correct RB at night, and then in N2, they'd have to pick between you (assuming they still believe that one of the two of us has to be scum), or an actual scum.

From my perspective, exactly one of {LL,RR} is scum, and then exactly two of {WW, Paco, Awa, Jake} are scum. I think Awaclus's actions are the most towny, and I'd had a reasonable townread on Paco... his recent argument fail runs against that, but then it runs against that precisely in your favour, which is at best confusing if you're really not scum. Jake is the person I'm most confident is scum, especially given Awaclus's recent case, which I totally agree with.

Play this scenario.  You are town.  RR/LaLight has a scum, they've been on all day.  I've been on all day.  You are at L-2.

How are you not dead?

I should be conftown to you.

[Witherweaver]

Oh, mostly I have a very hard time seeing both you and WW being scum at the same time, and from there it's just process of elimination. Look at it this way, if WW is scum, why isn't he quickhammering you with one of {LL,RR} ?

Well, by that logic, you and Jake have to be the two VT-claimed scums. I think it's pretty likely, but I also think that there's a non-zero chance of it being only one of you, and the other scum (which would have to be WW or Awaclus) realising that you might have a better chance of willing if you don't expose yourselves enough to give the real Beetle a high enough chance of blocking you.

Anyway, either way I find that your lack of precision with the facts feels a lot more like scum trying to twist a set of occurrences into their chosen narrative than town trying to infer a game state based on facts.

Okay, so it's been said.  Town!You should be convinced it's Jake/Pac.  It doesn't even matter who from LL/RR is scum.

[Witherweaver]

On RR/LL I'm still leaning towards town!LL and scum!RR, but much less than initially.

[Roadrunner7671]

If WW is scum we're screwed. I suppose I would be open to lynching Jake today. Out of Jake/Pacovf, I think he's slightly more likely. In a perfect world, we lynch LaLight today and Jake tomorrow, but if we flip flop that I guess I can live with it.

Look at how agreeable I am! Isn't that towny!