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[Roadrunner7671]

I seem to recall a post with a bunch of numbers. If Pacifv made it, Awaclus's argument holds water. But I need to check and see who made it.

[Roadrunner7671]

Ok, let's just conclude the setup discussion and go back to scumhunting:

-if we mislynch, then either Beetle roleblocks the nightkill (~20% chance) or we lose.
-if we lynch correctly, then either we win outright (33%) or we have to find another scum tomorrow. If we don't, we lose, unless Beetle roleblocks the kill either night (~50%).
-scum has daychat and can coordinate quickhammers.

tl;dr let's lynch scum today please.

Flash townread

towny-ish?SA,  Awaclus
scummy: Lalight, WW
null (not enough content): RR, Jake

Here are some numbers, although not the ones I'm looking for. Still, this is evidence that Pacovf plays more by the calculations, which looks sort of bad for Jake.

[Witherweaver]

So, the quickhammer thing is now a real-ish thing.

One of LaLight/RR is scum.  If Space is town and the other scum were Awaclus, the hammer would happen, almost surely.

So if Space is town, it has to be Jake and Pac.

Or, Space is scum.  Then one of Jake and Pac are bussing, or Awaclus is scum. 

Damn.

[Awaclus]

You are misremembering how things went. I said I wanted to lynch from the VTs literally 30 seconds after the first person (you) said that they wanted to lynch Lalight. I don't make posts that fast.

Fair enough, but it's still the case that you were protecting LaLight by going for the VTs who have a lower chance of being scum overall.

BTW, I always make abstraction of my own alignment when doing simple probabilities. I find them to be more honest that way.

I would buy that from you, but not from Jake. And the fact that Jake did it later means that I'm not buying it from you either.

[Roadrunner7671]

So 50% chance to lynch scum in the Beetles, compared to 40% in the VTs. On the other hand, if we lynch Beetle, we insta-lose, while if we lynch the Moon King, we insta-win.

So it's better to lynch a VT. We can argue about Beetles tomorrow.

Here!

[Witherweaver]

So basically we're sitting at

{Awaclus, Space, X}

or

{Pacovf, Jake, X}

[Roadrunner7671]

And X is Lalight?

[Witherweaver]

It doesn't matter.

[Awaclus]

So basically we're sitting at

{Awaclus, Space, X}

or

{Pacovf, Jake, X}

Pro tip: it's the lower one.

[Roadrunner7671]

It doesn't matter.

It does to me.

[Awaclus]

Vote: Jake

[Roadrunner7671]

It doesn't matter.

It does to me. It's literally a free lunch.

I've never played with Pacovf (I think) so I'd rather lynch Jake, just in case.

PPE-Why is there a PPE from RR?

[Awaclus]

Lynching Jake is super good. I think he might really be the Moon King.

[pacovf]

You are misremembering how things went. I said I wanted to lynch from the VTs literally 30 seconds after the first person (you) said that they wanted to lynch Lalight. I don't make posts that fast.

Fair enough, but it's still the case that you were protecting LaLight by going for the VTs who have a lower chance of being scum overall.

...how, exactly, am I supposed to be protecting someone before they are under attack? Besides, I have already given my reasoning for why lynching among the VTs is better today, and both WW and gkrieg agree with me, so you've got literally nothing here.

BTW, I always make abstraction of my own alignment when doing simple probabilities. I find them to be more honest that way.

I would buy that from you, but not from Jake. And the fact that Jake did it later means that I'm not buying it from you either.

Don't you have it backwards? If I understand you correctly, you are saying that Jake using probabilities goes against character, which means we discussed it in the scum QT. But if he did it after me, he could have just rehashed my posts. It's only if he had posted it before me that your argument holds water.

[Awaclus]

Don't you have it backwards? If I understand you correctly, you are saying that Jake using probabilities goes against character, which means we discussed it in the scum QT. But if he did it after me, he could have just rehashed my posts. It's only if he had posted it before me that your argument holds water.

He could have, but I don't think he would have unless you were his partner.

[pacovf]

Well, apparently your thinking is wrong.

[Awaclus]

Well, apparently your thinking is wrong.

I don't think it is.

[ashersky]

FYI, I am out for the evening.  Back in the morning.

[pacovf]

Speaking of which, I will barely be available tomorrow before deadline, and if I understand correctly, if we don't reach a majority, we no-lynch, which doesn't sound like something we want.

You know, just in case you have a vote laying around doing nothing. As Awaclus helpfully pointed out, we need *all* townies to vote on scum to get a lynch through.

Unless scum busses, I guess.

[LaLight]

hell lotta happen and i need to go to sleep. To sum up

1) I think we should lynch RR, he may be Moon king because WIFOM and I am 100% sure he's scum.
2) His partners are Awaclus/Space/WW, some of those guys. If we choose from them, I am inclined to vote Awaclus

PS: this cool ploy would look really good for Calamitas, would he be here. But i don't underestimate Awaclus and RR, they definitely could come up with something like this.

[pacovf]

Why not Jake?

[Roadrunner7671]

Why not pacovf?

[pacovf]

:p

[SpaceAnemone]

I'm more or less caught up now. Glad I haven't come back into the game dead.

gkrieg, remember how you figured me as an easy mislynch to push when you were scum? And how you mislynched me one or more times as a VT? I'm sorry I seem to come out with stuff that makes people want to vote for me when I'm trying to be useful, but I don't seem to have the knack for not doing so yet. Also, how much of your suspicion on me is based on thinking WW isn't scummy, and using a process of elimination? And how many times has scum!WW pulled the wool over everyone's eyes and won while everyone thought he was towny?

[JaketheBaseballGod22]

Ok hold up awaclus your case is bull I WANT TO LYNCH A BETTLE. I've never said otherwise.