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[Captain_Frisk]

RobZ - just went back and re-read your missive - it was the first thing I read this morning (or maybe last thing from last night) and I was foggy and never went back to react to it.

I tend to agree with the analysis that I am not mafia - I in fact know it to be true.  I'm not sure it really clears me though - I've never been high on anyone's suspicions except O and Pops giving me grief - presumably for giving them grief about their irritating playstyles - and if the lynchwagon did take off - he could always drop off like I did off of Grujah - which even J suggests is scumread-neutral.

I also don't follow the internal logic - I still don't understand why Pops is free.  Bickering with O is one thing on his side earlier in the week... but once he joined the Grujah wagon - Pops didn't vote for O - he stayed behind on Grujah...

That play just seems odd to me. 

[Robz888]

Pops says he thought he voted for O, and reading over that section of the thread it did look to me like he thought that, if my memory is correct. They bickered too much.

Although maybe I should stop defending him, since he never defends himself.

[Robz888]

You know, if I am wrong about there being 3 mafia, my whole analysis is out the window. I was assuming 3 mafia even if there was a Serial Killer. DO we think there could only be 2 mafia? That does change my analysis. It knocks Jo back into contention, for one thing.

[Dsell]

You know, if I am wrong about there being 3 mafia, my whole analysis is out the window. I was assuming 3 mafia even if there was a Serial Killer. DO we think there could only be 2 mafia? That does change my analysis. It knocks Jo back into contention, for one thing.

I think it's really tough know, which is a frustration with the closed set-up. I think the only things we can rule out (and still not 100% ruled out) are 4 mafia+SK and 2 mafia+no SK.

[Captain_Frisk]

I tend to assume 3 mafia as well - given that we had more players than M3, and that game had a Mafia PR + 2 Goons + a SK.

@DSell - Agreed - 2 Mafia + No SK would be really brutal - unless the rest of town was full of vigs, which would be quite funny - but closer to bastard mod.

[Captain_Frisk]

I tend to assume 3 mafia as well - given that we had more players than M3, and that game had a Mafia PR + 2 Goons + a SK.

@DSell - Agreed - 2 Mafia + No SK would be really brutal - unless the rest of town was full of vigs, which would be quite funny - but closer to bastard mod.

Brutal for mafia that is.

[Voltgloss]

I think it's really tough know, which is a frustration with the closed set-up. I think the only things we can rule out (and still not 100% ruled out) are 4 mafia+SK and 2 mafia+no SK.

I mentioned this early in the thread, but as a reminder:  there was a maximum of 4 scum players at game start.  So you can 100% rule out "4 mafia + SK."

[Captain_Frisk]

Is this what happens to mafia games when Galzria isn't involved?

[jotheonah]

Anyway, the discussion is distracting at this point, and it's not surprising at all that Frisk and Jo want that distraction.

The discussion is a distraction that you started with what I considered to bad reasoning - so I called it out.

However - agreed with everyone that we should be hunting mafia - not SK - at least until at least 1 more mafia goes down.  We do have confirmed mafia in the game (there is at least 1 remaining), and we don't even know if there is SK.

-- back on target --

So there are 4 of us (myself, DSell, Jonah, and Pops) of which we expect at least 1 to be mafia.  3 of us false lynched Axxle1. 

RobZ has cleared pops for some reason I don't understand.

J is J - Pops thinks he's town - Glooble thinks he's town.

I am not mafia - nobody suspected me in the Tables hunt - and then I failed to vote for O and now I look scummy as hell.

DSell - nobody suspects him as far as I know.

Does that summarize our likely suspects?

What are you referring to here? When did we go after Tables?

[Captain_Frisk]

What are you referring to here? When did we go after Tables?

Tables put together the chart - with all of our suspicions?

[jotheonah]

Got it, sorry. Brain fart.

[jotheonah]

Willing to lynch (in order of preference): Popsofctown, Jotheonah, Glooble, Grujah, Robz
Strong-unwilling: Tables, SFS, DSell (due to V/LA)
Still-pretty-damn-unwilling: Captain Frisk, Axxle, Galzria

Where do we reckon O puts his partners on this list? The bottom if he's thinking about the current round, the top if he's planning for a worst case scenario of him being lynched (unlikely since at this point there was no wagon on him)

CF had a convenient excuse for not making his list until everyone else had (We need a methodology guys!) When his list does emerge, it puts Me, Galz, and Pops on top - three people already high on the list (and therefore candidates for the consensus). Two of whom I know are town (One we all know) and pops, who I'm pretty sure is town based on interactions with O, but Frisk continues to suspect. He puts O right in the middle.

And then the O wagon starts. And then this happens:

Well - I like that this wagon is different than my grujah wagon, but seriously... Glooble, is there any lynch you don't get behind?

Can someone explain why we are lynching O and not Jonah?  Table's magic list said so?  He tallied it up, eliminated the top guy, and then got to make his choice of the next 2 and now we're all voting for him? 

Why can't we lynch Jonah or Pops - who there have been actual cases against?

Pops started this up, and has repeatedly dodged questions of "how are we going to pick the lynch target" - and when called out on his cagey responses, he says "because it rhymes".

If it was anyone other than Tables or SFS driving the selection, I'd be really angry... now I'm just confused.

Wow. Desperate bid to save his V/LA partner much?

Yeah, Ok. That's enough for me. Vote: Captain Frisk

[jotheonah]

"who there have been actual cases against" = particularly scummy, since plenty of actual cases had been made against O.

[Captain_Frisk]

"who there have been actual cases against" = particularly scummy, since plenty of actual cases had been made against O.

I've been reading history - it looks like the best "zing" against O was that he had "forgotten" that SFS had cleared Tables.

What other parts of this case do you find compelling?

Note: you didn't vote for him either!

[jotheonah]

I am online - but I will not be hammering O.  I hope that he is Mafia, and I generally agree with Robz's theory that there is mafia among the set of

Jo
Galzria
O
Glooble
Captain_Frisk
Pops

I don't understand why the logic for why O is in here.  He's the first member of the non Axxlewagon to jump on the Grujah wagon? 

I'm removing myself because I know I'm not mafia.  That leaves me with Jo, Galz, Glooble, Pops. 

As I've stated before, I prefer J to Glooble, and Pops to Galz.  J for legit suspicions reasons, and Pops over Galz for personality - since I don't really have a strong read for one or the other.  I am willing to let the twinclaim thing ride for a bit, hence my vote for pops, but I lynch J or Galz if need be.

So the BIG difference between CF's not hammering and my not hammering is this. CF announced an intention not to hammer, even (one assumes) if that led to a no lynch. Whereas I announced an intention to hammer if need be. Big difference.

[jotheonah]

Also I invoke the spirit of the dead:

If O comes up Mafia, then C.F. Needs to be the next target.

[jotheonah]

"who there have been actual cases against" = particularly scummy, since plenty of actual cases had been made against O.

I've been reading history - it looks like the best "zing" against O was that he had "forgotten" that SFS had cleared Tables.

What other parts of this case do you find compelling?

Note: you didn't vote for him either!

What got me was his weird vehemence against Robz's not-that-implausible group theory, actually. But I thought Galzria was the worse offender there. Ah well.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-3

Captain_Frisk (3): Axxle, popsofctown, jotheonah
jotheonah (1): SwitchedFromStarcraft

Not voting {5}: Dsell, Robz888, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Tables

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Tuesday, July 11, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[jotheonah]

Final note: I hate to be the one leading this charge, because it probably looks very "anybody but me" but I hope the quotes I've provided will convince you that this is evidence-based scumhunting. If it helps, imagine Tables said it.

[Captain_Frisk]

Final note: I hate to be the one leading this charge, because it probably looks very "anybody but me" but I hope the quotes I've provided will convince you that this is evidence-based scumhunting. If it helps, imagine Tables said it.

The finger of Galzria suspicion from beyond the grave is pretty tough to defend.  As soon as I saw that Galz was dead - I was shocked (because I suspected him to be mafia - mainly because I knew his read to be so wrong that it must be false vs. just mis-informed), then sad because I figured I was in for a rough day.

The other posts you quote - I'm perfectly fine with.  I was opposed to the O lynch for the very reasons I outlined.  I didn't (and still don't) like the idea of the pooled lists - which is why I resisted providing mine.  The fact that the list mania was started by pops - who then refused any commentary on it - made me doubly suspicious.  (Kudos to tables for running it home - either as town - or as the significantly less likely BEST BUS EVER)

The end result of the list?  You and O were tied... and Tables went after O.

The next two highest are Joth and O. Joth isn't a candidate of Pops (who gave a good reason for not wanting to lynch Joth (today) and Glooble (who is of course the twinclaim). O isn't a candidate of Galz or SFS, neither of whom have given good reasons for not putting him on (hardly surprising, as he hasn't been the focus of discussion for good chunks of two days...). This makes me somewhat uncomfortable - Galz isn't one of my scumreads and neither is SFS, so by my own logic this would likely make the mafia be trying to egg an O lynch on.

I felt that you were an equally viable candiate - one that we knew we could lynch (by virtue of you having nearly been lynched prior) - and I didn't understand why were were letting you off the hook - and all the sudden going after O.  Re-reading it STILL makes me angry:
1.  Because I still didn't agree with it - and pops refused to answer any questions about why we should be doing it
2.  Because it worked and thus I was clearly wrong.

Was anyone honestly truly confident on the O lynch?  I felt like if I was voting - it would have been "well - I have nothing better - so here it goes!".   That just feels scummy to me -> hence my unwillingness to lynch. 

[Robz888]

Hm, you make a compelling case, Jo.

This is tough. Now that I'm getting more worried that there are only 2 mafia in total (in other words, I'm not hunting for a pair), Frisk seems a lot more plausible. Then again, so do you. And if there are 2, I still think Dsell is the top contender. Maybe? Ugh.

[Captain_Frisk]

Time to shut down - will be lurking from phone / ipad this evening.   

@RobZ - I probably don't need to remind you that just about anyone can build a compelling case against J and his "anyone but me" craziness.  In fact - I could probably just go back and paste in your own case.

[Axxle]

I see a lot of flailing from CF.  And Joth seems a little too pushy.  I'll come back tonight and look through all of CF's posts to see if I can't come up with something to convince the nonvoters (SwitchedFromStarcraft, Dsell, Robz888, Glooble, Tables) that this is the right course of action.

[Glooble]

Was anyone honestly truly confident on the O lynch?  I felt like if I was voting - it would have been "well - I have nothing better - so here it goes!".   That just feels scummy to me -> hence my unwillingness to lynch. 

I was pretty confident. I know everyone says I'll jump on any bandwagon, but I've been telling people O looks bad to me since day one.

Btw, trying to search your posts is made very frustrating by your participation in every ongoing Mafia or Bastard Mafia game. The visual similarity of IV to VI is going to get confusing fast when analyzing past posts.

[Dsell]

It bothers me that neither of our likely-confirmed townies are on this wagon. Tables did list C_F as quite suspicious when he last posted, though. SFS is on jo and has laid out a pretty strong string of posts linking O and jo, and to be honest I still am having trouble swallowing jo's ridiculous about-face in playing style. O's lynch must have really sobered him up. However, he's making strong arguments that (he's right!), are based on logic and not just anyone-but-me. THIS WORRIES ME but hey, I'll accept it for now.

The case against C_F is really strong and the fact that Galz supported/supports it does make me a little more ok with that decision. I will not even consider voting, however, until we hear more from Tables and probably SFS.