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[liopoil]

There is only one remotely plausible scenario where we shouldn't lynch e today:

Oh wait, it doesn't work. Okay, we're lynching e. But no voting yet.

[silverspawn]

So in the second scenario, we can only win by letting font alive.

And in the first scenario, we probably have higher chances by leaving her alive, too.

So this does point towards lynching e first, however that's a) what font wants us to conclude, and b) falls apart if e is actually town.

[Haddock]

Vote: fontisian

My claim didn't back me in a corner, my claim validates me. With all the investigation you seriously think scum doesn't have some sort of ninja/bus driver/nexus/whatever? I would not be surprised if Melisandre was ninja killed N1, but my doctor saved him. Because scum is going to doctor their own kill N1. But oh wait, we were the evil masterminds who predicted this claiming scenario back on N1.....right.....

I think font/lio/RR make the most sense as remaining scum. Their claims all line up. Fontisian could very well be SK, but maybe they are in communication in some way? I don't know.

There can't be more than 3 scum remaining, or the game would be over. I mean, possibly multiple factions to add up to 4 scum, but either way. Scum need one mislynch. I am a great target for that. I just don't think they were expecting my claim but now they just have to power through with it since they committed

I think the explanation for the nokill night 1 is that Seprix jailkept e.

Just been rereading.  Seprix's two scumreads were ADK and e.  Pretty much just those two.  lio maybe.  But I think it's very likely that e was jailkept.  Which makes him conf!scum.

Other possibility is that Seprix jailkept ADK and that saved him.  I don't see it though.  We also basically know that Seprix jailkept scum because that's how they knew to kill him (neighbourising).

Also I don't see mafia killing ADK, he had a fair number of votes against him D1 and was a potential mislynch, esp. since he started the Awaclus wagon.

[liopoil]

Let's examine both separately.

4 - 1 - 2
Lynch SK -> 3 - 2 LyLo
Lynch Mafia -> 4 - 1 - 1
... Two towns get shot -> Lose
... Town and scum gets shot -> 3 / 1 MyLo
... Two Scum get shot -> Win

3 - 1 - 3
Lynch SK -> Lose
Lynch Mafia -> 3 - 1 - 2
... Two towns get shot -> Lose
... Town and SK get shot -> Lose
... Town and Mafia get shot -> 2 - 1 - 1 Could be winnable
... Mafia and SK gets shot -> 3 / 1 MyLo

I like how 2 - 1 - 1 is a loss in the first place and potentially winnable in the second.

[Haddock]

Yes that pretty much convinces me.  No way Seprix jailkept town, so the only explanation for the kill is that Seprix prevented it by jailkeeping one of his scumreads, which can only really be e at this point.  lio perhaps but recent events make lio very towny.

[Haddock]

And lio didn't seem to be Seprix's main scumread.

[liopoil]

Yes that pretty much convinces me.  No way Seprix jailkept town, so the only explanation for the kill is that Seprix prevented it by jailkeeping one of his scumreads, which can only really be e at this point.  lio perhaps but recent events make lio very towny.

or mafia also killed ichi

[silverspawn]

I like how 2 - 1 - 1 is a loss in the first place and potentially winnable in the second.

Good catch, that's potentially winnable in the first case, too.

if the pseudo scum does not control the kill, it is winnable just by lynching font then. If he does, we need weird NK shenanigans.

[Haddock]

Yes that pretty much convinces me.  No way Seprix jailkept town, so the only explanation for the kill is that Seprix prevented it by jailkeeping one of his scumreads, which can only really be e at this point.  lio perhaps but recent events make lio very towny.

or mafia also killed ichi

OK yeah this is all under the assumption that fonti is telling the truth, I guess.  In which case e could still be town by redirect nonsense, but this pretty much kills that idea.  If fonti is telling the truth e is conf!scum to my mind even with redirect nonsense.

[fontisian]

I think silver is a good shot tonight. Any other thoughts?

[Haddock]

OK, so on the assumption that we end up lynching e, I would

PseudoVote: silver

as fonti's kill.

[Witherweaver]

I would still like us to hold off on ending today.

[liopoil]

I will also:

PseudoVote: silver

Problem is, why wouldn't fontisian opt to kill a townie instead?

[silverspawn]

OK, so on the assumption that we end up lynching e, I would

PseudoVote: silver

as fonti's kill.

but then we don't win. I want to win.

[Haddock]

To be honest,  I think 3-scum+SK left is unlikely enough to want to kill fonti anyway.

[silverspawn]

Problem is, why wouldn't fontisian opt to kill a townie instead?

Well as it looks now, if she tries to kill a townie then she might accidentally hit a scum.

[liopoil]

To be honest,  I think 3-scum+SK left is unlikely enough to want to kill fonti anyway.

Then it will hopefully be a 5 player lylo. You think we'll win by lynching e and then silverspawn then?

[2.71828.....]

I am all about killing claimed scum. It worked with iguana

[Haddock]

I will also:

PseudoVote: silver

Problem is, why wouldn't fontisian opt to kill a townie instead?

Because if she does, either she gets killed by mafia or the game eventually reaches a kingmaker scenario in which case we kill her for lying to us.

To be honest,  I think 3-scum+SK left is unlikely enough to want to kill fonti anyway.

Then it will hopefully be a 5 player lylo. You think we'll win by lynching e and then silverspawn then?

e I think almost certainly.  The final one, not so sure.

[liopoil]

Problem is, why wouldn't fontisian opt to kill a townie instead?

Well as it looks now, if she tries to kill a townie then she might accidentally hit a scum.

She is confident I am town and is correct, so nope.

I will also:

PseudoVote: silver

Problem is, why wouldn't fontisian opt to kill a townie instead?

Because if she does, either she gets killed by mafia or the game eventually reaches a kingmaker scenario in which case we kill her for lying to us.

To be honest,  I think 3-scum+SK left is unlikely enough to want to kill fonti anyway.

Then it will hopefully be a 5 player lylo. You think we'll win by lynching e and then silverspawn then?

e I think almost certainly.  The final one, not so sure.

Yeah, it being you or WW instead of silver makes me hesitate enough to not want to do that.

If we lynch e and have fontisian kill ss it's okay even if ss is town. Town never plays kingmaker.

[fontisian]

I will also:

PseudoVote: silver

Problem is, why wouldn't fontisian opt to kill a townie instead?

/I can't win/

I couldn't win the moment RR claimed. The only thing left for me is choosing the terms of my defeat. I choose to destroy the scum team I've been hunting for three weeks. I choose to be the sk that shot only prs in early game and only mafia in late game.

I am a fontisian. I do not go quietly.

[liopoil]

I will also:

PseudoVote: silver

Problem is, why wouldn't fontisian opt to kill a townie instead?

/I can't win/

I couldn't win the moment RR claimed. The only thing left for me is choosing the terms of my defeat. I choose to destroy the scum team I've been hunting for three weeks. I choose to be the sk that shot only prs in early game and only mafia in late game.

I am a fontisian. I do not go quietly.

It is still possible for you to win and you know it too, otherwise you would have continued to pretend to be town.

[Haddock]

If we lynch e and have fontisian kill ss it's okay even if ss is town. Town never plays kingmaker.

This is only true if mafia choose to kill fonti. 

If mafia and fonti both hit scum, town kingmake in the 2-1-1  (A no lynch just means that mafia and SK both win, I think, based on fonti's alternate win condition)

[Haddock]

If mafia and fonti both hit town*

[fontisian]

Why? I was outed, it was obvious.

The only way I win is if I kill mafia tonight, they shoot town, and you guys lynch outside of me tomorrow, and I don't die that night. This is a path that involves me killing mafia for you.

If a shoot a town, then mafia and town just lynch me, as they have every right to.