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[Haddock]

Extremely likely NOT Mafia:
liopoil
Witherweaver
Haddock
fontisian

Could in theory be Mafia
Silverspawn

Probably one or both of these are Mafia:
Roadrunner
e

I think these are good odds for us.

I disagree with this only as far as fonti goes.  I've been townreading her all game but right now I think I have to put her as null until I reread.
Chances are we have no mislynches in hand here.

[liopoil]

Extremely likely NOT Mafia:
liopoil
Witherweaver
Haddock
fontisian

Could in theory be Mafia
Silverspawn

Probably one or both of these are Mafia:
Roadrunner
e

I think these are good odds for us.

I disagree with this only as far as fonti goes.  I've been townreading her all game but right now I think I have to put her as null until I reread.
Chances are we have no mislynches in hand here.

I agree that she is actually more likely to be some sort of other scum than most, but really, you think she could be mafia?

[liopoil]

I'm pretty sure somebody voted for gkrieg on day three besides Haddock and I, who was it?

[Roadrunner7671]

Gkrieg's vote is one I can get behind.
Vote: ADK

Wait what does this mean?  Why did you wait for me to vote?

Indeed, what DOES this mean?

I was already voting for ADK, it was a joke to demonstrate how confident I was that he was scum (I'd vote for him twice if I could). Obviously that looks scummy now, but I think 2.7 will be a more likely lynch today.

[Haddock]

Extremely likely NOT Mafia:
liopoil
Witherweaver
Haddock
fontisian

Could in theory be Mafia
Silverspawn

Probably one or both of these are Mafia:
Roadrunner
e

I think these are good odds for us.

I disagree with this only as far as fonti goes.  I've been townreading her all game but right now I think I have to put her as null until I reread.
Chances are we have no mislynches in hand here.

I agree that she is actually more likely to be some sort of other scum than most, but really, you think she could be mafia?

Ah I was just thinking straight-up scum of any kind.
That's probably a good point.

[Haddock]

I'm pretty sure somebody voted for gkrieg on day three besides Haddock and I, who was it?

Nope.  Just us, according to my Ctrl+F.

[liopoil]

I'm pretty sure somebody voted for gkrieg on day three besides Haddock and I, who was it?

Nope.  Just us, according to my Ctrl+F.

I was think of e. e suspected gkrieg but never voted, and gkrieg voted for e but didn't pursue the lynch too much.

[Haddock]

I'm pretty sure somebody voted for gkrieg on day three besides Haddock and I, who was it?

Nope.  Just us, according to my Ctrl+F.

I was think of e. e suspected gkrieg but never voted, and gkrieg voted for e but didn't pursue the lynch too much.

e voted gkrieg some time in D1.  And vice versa I think.  But no real commitment.  So yeah I could see that as partner-distancing.

[liopoil]

Now I remember it was ss who came up with the 'scumslip' argument against iguana. Bleh. He might have thought it wouldn't catch on, but idk...

My guess right now would be that there is just one mafia and one SK left, but I suppose that's a bit optimistic for a 16 player game. And if I have to call it now, I'd say e is the mafia and fontisian is the SK.

[Haddock]

Now I remember it was ss who came up with the 'scumslip' argument against iguana. Bleh. He might have thought it wouldn't catch on, but idk...

My guess right now would be that there is just one mafia and one SK left, but I suppose that's a bit optimistic for a 16 player game. And if I have to call it now, I'd say e is the mafia and fontisian is the SK.

Silver's play makes sense as a potential SK, including his push on iguana.

I could absolutely believe 4 mafia and 1 SK.  meaning 3 scum from 7. 
Hmmm.  That may mean we basically HAVE to get the SK today.  Otherwise 2 kills, and we straightup lose.
Most setups allow for 3 mislynches, though.

I don't think we can afford to SK-hunt.  Better to try to find mafia and hope that there's only one mafia left.  Or that the SK kills a mafia.  So silver should be off the table as a lynch for today, I think.

[liopoil]

I still think silver could be mafia.

Suppose there are two mafia and a SK left, and we lynch a mafia. Then with some luck, one will shoot the other and we'll have a 4-player mylo. Worst case they both hit townies and we are left with two townies, one mafia, one SK. At this point the game theory gets really interesting, which I'll ignore for now, but there is at least some chance town can get the mafia and SK to shoot each other the next night resulting in a town win.

So lynching mafia today is absolutely acceptable.

One troubling possibility is that and SK is likely at least 1-shot bulletproof. Could be that mafia tried to shoot them night one though, which would be nice.

[liopoil]

Some of RR's early comments about there being multiple scum factions and stuff are especially interesting at this point in time.

Gkrieg's vote is one I can get behind.
Vote: ADK

Wait what does this mean?  Why did you wait for me to vote?

Indeed, what DOES this mean?

I was already voting for ADK, it was a joke to demonstrate how confident I was that he was scum (I'd vote for him twice if I could). Obviously that looks scummy now, but I think 2.7 will be a more likely lynch today.

Gunning for each other right out of the gate huh?

[2.71828.....]

So I will probably be stream of conscious, what I remember paying from here out. Going on vacation, will keep posting and staying with the thread, I just will be phone posting basically exclusively

[2.71828.....]

Day 1 Final Vote Count

liopoil (3): Teproc, Hydrad, gkrieg13
Seprix (3): 2.71828....., J Reggie, Awaclus
Awaclus (9): Seprix, silverspawn, liopoil, Haddock, A Drowned Kernel, Roadrunner7671, fontisian, Ichimaru Gin, Jan

Not Voting (1): Melisandre

With 16 alive, it took 9 to lynch.

[2.71828.....]

I refuse to believe that scum does not exist on that wagon. Silverspawn looks the worst because he pushed out so hard. Haddock, liopoil, RR, fontisian are the remaining people on the list.

I could see silverspawn/RR both scum here. I think these wagons are another point in favor of town!WW because I doubt three scum were all hanging out together on liopoil. Unless they are different factions, which is possible

[2.71828.....]

Scum->town

RR, silverspawn, liopoil, fontisian, Haddock, WW, e

[liopoil]

Why can't the awaclus wagon be all town? Not that I think it is

[Roadrunner7671]

I'm not scum. Can you guys humor me and not vote for me? I personally am going to look for interactions with gkrieg.

[liopoil]

I'm not scum. Can you guys humor me and not vote for me? I personally am going to look for interactions with gkrieg.

Uh, for the moment, sure. I'm probably only going to vote once today.

[Witherweaver]

I don't want to vote until I've finished all my rereads. 

[fontisian]

E, claim your role. Now.

[Roadrunner7671]

E, claim your role. Now.

What?

[fontisian]

This is order. If my reason after he claims doesn't satisfy you, feel free to lynch me for it.

[fontisian]

*an order

Phone posting is hard.

[liopoil]

What will you do if he does not claim?

This is my first non-phone post of the game by the way.