ALIVEO
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
Voltgloss
eHalcyon
yuma
DEADGalzria -
Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 1
Robz888 -
Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 1
Captain_Frisk -
Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 1
jotheonah -
Serial Killer - Lynched Day 2
Michaeljb -
Vanilla Townie -Killed in Night 2
CLAIM: I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #5.I don't know if Insomniac is a really crappy mod or something, but if he is we as town are screwed anyways and can blame him after the game.
We have at least 5 Vanilla Townies. We had a Serial Killer. We can probably assume that there are 3 mafia; if there are less, we might misslynch this/next week and give up a potential advantage, but we'll have more breathing room anyways.
13 people, 3 mafia, 1 SK, 5 Vanilla townie... that leaves 4 (hopefully, or screw you insomnaic) town-aligned people, of which... lets say at least two, and probably three have power roles.
Hopefully/small chance that 4 do. (once again... or screw you insomniac)
Currently we're at 3/8 for lynching mafia. Lets look at possible scenarios and (assuming for now Axxle is telling the truth) the probabilities that Morgrim is mafia.
5+ VT, 0+ vanilla scum: Revive and lynch insomniac endgame
5 VT, 1+ vanilla scum: Morgrim is mafia
6 VT, 1 vanilla scum: 50% chance Morgrim is mafia
6 VT, 2 vanilla scum: 66% chance that Morgrim is mafia
6 VT, 3 vanilla scum: Mafia NK insomniac, 75% chance morgrim is mafia
7 VT, 1 vanilla scum: Lynch insomnaic, 33% chance Morgrim is mafia
7 VT, 2 vanilla scum: 50% chance
7 VT, 3 vanilla scum: wat. 60% chance Morgrim is mafia
8+ VT: ragequit.
Morgrim is the second non-mafia that investigates vanilla (SK was dumb enough): Kill insomniac, then ragequit.
These probabilities of course go off of a lot of assumptions: Me and Axxle are both telling the truth.