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[Voltgloss]

The no-lynch math looks correct, but leaves me with another question.  Dsell, why did you say you "did not want to advocate this [no-lynch] yet?"  What is holding you back from voting No Lynch?

[yuma]

Isn't voting highly dangerous in MILO?

Sorry I don't understand "MILO"

[Morgrim7]

Sorry I cant quote, anyway...
-The reason why I did not say anythig when Axxle told everyone that I am Vanilla, is because, well, he was right. I am a vanilla townie.
-Galz voted for himself. He retained his vote even when he had six votes on him. Would a Mafia do this?
-I voted for Galzria for reasons stated above.

Oh, and, does nobody but me find it odd that the Mafia did not kill Axxle even though they knew he was rolecop? Is it because he was a Mafia rolecop? What were they hoping to gain by not killing him? After all, besides J, a bunch of Vanilla townies have been killed. A better targed would be a "confirmed" town role like Axxle. And yet he survived. So what was to gain? Info about me? Then why did Axxle give them what they want?

[Dsell]

YES it takes 5 to lynch so if those two are town and Morgrim is town the mafia could hammer right now. Really early to have 2 votes guys...

[O]

MILO: If misslynch, then loss (probably)

[yuma]

Sorry I cant quote, anyway...
-The reason why I did not say anythig when Axxle told everyone that I am Vanilla, is because, well, he was right. I am a vanilla townie.

Maybe you aren't understanding. When Axxle revealed that he was RoleCop and outed J. Did you see that reveal? If you did, why didn't you respond? You were the only player not to comment throughout that entire day. Your profile made it seem that you had been on the forum but neglected to post anything about Axxle being RoleCop.

That is my biggest question and the one you still haven't answered.

[Dsell]

The no-lynch math looks correct, but leaves me with another question.  Dsell, why did you say you "did not want to advocate this [no-lynch] yet?"  What is holding you back from voting No Lynch?

It's very possible that we'll get enough information this week to lynch mafia, which is ideal. However, no lynch is MUCH better than lynching town because that is basically an insta-lose scenario for the town. No lynch would give us another week to analyze and another night for power roles to work.

My last post was @O, btw (and the people who had voted Morgrim.)

[yuma]

MILO: If misslynch, then loss (probably)

YES it takes 5 to lynch so if those two are town and Morgrim is town the mafia could hammer right now. Really early to have 2 votes guys...

You are absolutely right.

unvote:Morgrim

If this is how people feel should we be voting no lynch?

[O]

I'm not quite sure about claiming right now- we do have roleblockers, and I'm already the closest thing we have to a confirmed town. What do others think?

[Dsell]

I'm not quite sure about claiming right now- we do have roleblockers, and I'm already the closest thing we have to a confirmed town. What do others think?

You mean have everyone just state their role immediately? I was thinking about this too but it seems like it might be something that can wait for later in the week? But I'm actually fine with it.

[Insomniac]

Vote Count 3-1

Morgrim7 (1) - Axxle

Not Voting (7) - O, DSell, Morgrim7, Eevee, Voltgloss, eHalcyon, yuma

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch.

The deadline is June 16 11:59pm PDT

[Dsell]

Along with the above posts I am becoming more and more wary of Morgrim7 behavior. I think I will join C. Frisk--whose vote I agree with--and O--whose vote I don't--in voting for Morgrim7.

Status:
Suspicious: Galzria, Morgrim7
Not suspicious: none
Vote: Morgrim7

I'm just gonna throw this quote out there and see where it leads us...

[Voltgloss]

I'm not quite sure about claiming right now- we do have roleblockers, and I'm already the closest thing we have to a confirmed town. What do others think?

You mean have everyone just state their role immediately? I was thinking about this too but it seems like it might be something that can wait for later in the week? But I'm actually fine with it.

If this starts happening, how should a Town Doctor respond?  Do we want to tell the Mafia exactly who they should target during the night?

Also, we don't actually know we have any Roleblockers available in this closed setup (at least based on the information made public so far).

[Morgrim7]

FWIW, I was not on the forum at all the past few days (omitting yesterday evening). I have been really busy with work, and have not been able to get on at all. The person who was on my account was my sister. She could not get on her account for some reason, so I lent her mine temporarily. So not be alarmed, she did not post anything.

Anyway, yuma, the reason why I did not respond to th revealing was, well, what was there to say that has not aready been said?

[yuma]

I am heading out and will be gone for the rest of the day. My vote is off so no worry there.

Pre-post edit:

Dsell I saw your post but don't have the time to respond to it. Not sure what sort of a response you want? I'll get to it when I get back--most likely tomorrow morning.

[O]

ALIVE
O
def
Dsell
Morgrim7
Eevee
Voltgloss
eHalcyon
yuma

DEAD
Galzria - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 1
Robz888 - Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 1
Captain_Frisk - Vanilla Townie - Killed in Night 1
jotheonah - Serial Killer - Lynched Day 2
Michaeljb - Vanilla Townie -Killed in Night 2


CLAIM: I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #5.


I don't know if Insomniac is a really crappy mod or something, but if he is we as town are screwed anyways and can blame him after the game. 

We have at least 5 Vanilla Townies. We had a Serial Killer. We can probably assume that there are 3 mafia; if there are less, we might misslynch this/next week and give up a potential advantage, but we'll have more breathing room anyways.

13 people, 3 mafia, 1 SK, 5 Vanilla townie... that leaves 4 (hopefully, or screw you insomnaic) town-aligned people, of which... lets say at least two, and probably three have power roles. Hopefully/small chance that 4 do. (once again... or screw you insomniac)

Currently we're at 3/8 for lynching mafia. Lets look at possible scenarios and (assuming for now Axxle is telling the truth) the probabilities that Morgrim is mafia.

5+ VT, 0+ vanilla scum: Revive and lynch insomniac endgame
5 VT, 1+ vanilla scum: Morgrim is mafia
6 VT, 1 vanilla scum: 50% chance Morgrim is mafia
6 VT, 2 vanilla scum: 66% chance that Morgrim is mafia
6 VT, 3 vanilla scum: Mafia NK insomniac, 75% chance morgrim is mafia
7 VT, 1 vanilla scum: Lynch insomnaic, 33% chance Morgrim is mafia
7 VT, 2 vanilla scum: 50% chance
7 VT, 3 vanilla scum: wat. 60% chance Morgrim is mafia
8+ VT: ragequit.
Morgrim is the second non-mafia that investigates vanilla (SK was dumb enough): Kill insomniac, then ragequit.

These probabilities of course go off of a lot of assumptions: Me and Axxle are both telling the truth.

[Dsell]

I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #6.

I was getting increasingly surprised by how many vanillas were turning up. The only shred of evidence I have for this is that after I posted about leaving for vacation on June 16, Insomniac posted that the day will end June 17 and said nothing about an extended night or anything. I can't prove that he would do this even if I had a night role and it's possible that he just didn't see my post but if I were mafia you'd think he would want me to be able to perform a night action or something. (I hope it's not too meta to use what the mod does as evidence within the game)

[Dsell]

Er, move those days back one each. I am leaving the 15th and the day is ending the 16th.

[Morgrim7]

Ok,I know who is mafia now. Vote: O.
You are lying when you say you are vanilla townie, unless there 6 vanilla townies and I know for sure I am one.
I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #6. O IS MAFIA

[Dsell]

Ok,I know who is mafia now. Vote: O.
You are lying when you say you are vanilla townie, unless there 6 vanilla townies and I know for sure I am one.
I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #6. O IS MAFIA

The problem with this is that way back in day 1, he gave himself a 50/50 shot at being killed by the one-shot vigilante/serial killer (jo). This makes sense for a vanilla townie to do but much less sense for mafia to do. O is pretty crazy, but I don't think he's THAT crazy (if he's mafia. It's not crazy if he's VT because better him than one of our PRs).

[O]

Ok,I know who is mafia now. Vote: O.
You are lying when you say you are vanilla townie, unless there 6 vanilla townies and I know for sure I am one.
I AM VANILLA TOWNIE #6. O IS MAFIA

I'm sorry you felt you had to do this move. Either you're mafia and if I have my reads on others correctly (I do hope they believe me) you just got yourself lynched or your town and you got yourself lynched while accusing another town.

[O]

any time you want to jump in, volt..

[Voltgloss]

In post #169 Insomniac specified that there are 3 Mafia.

Can someone please explain to me why we want to massclaim now?  I can see massclaiming when we're at lynch-right-or-lose - when we have nothing to lose from all power roles outing themselves - but that's not the situation we're in:  the situation is mislynch-and-lose.  If we ultimately vote "no lynch" we go into Night 3 with 8 people alive, and can expect to reach Day 4 intact.  But why would we want to tip off to the Mafia who the Town's protective role(s) are before we get to Night 3?  Doesn't that just let them guide their Night 3 kill to where it will do us the most damage?

I'm happy to go along with this if someone can please explain what benefit the Town gets from it.  So far I haven't seen that.  I've only seen "should we do this?" from O and "eh, I guess" from Dsell (heavily paraphased). 

Pre-post Edit:  And I just saw Morgrim's latest.  Which flat-out does not make sense to me.  To my eye, the most likely explanation for Morgrim's actions is that he has affirmatively decided to the play the "crazy" card to the hilt.  And that has me more worried he IS in fact Mafia, and that he and/or his compatriots have affirmatively decided "Morgrim's only chance is the crazy defense, so Morgrim, go all out with the crazy, and if it works, great."  Because his latest accusation of O is, by any reckoning, crazy.  Not just for the reason Dsell cited, but also for the simple reason that Morgrim's supposedly being VT would not preclude O from being VT as well. 

Dsell, I would like to hear whether Morgrim's latest makes him more or less suspicious in your eyes.

Pre-pre-post Edit:  Jumped, O.  Would have posted half an hour ago but had to figure out my thoughts on Morgrim first when I tried to post the first time and "3 new replies" came up.

[Dsell]

@Voltgloss

Actually I think one of the biggest benefits of everyone claiming is that if we decide to do it the mafia would have to make some sort of claim to, which could be very helpful in performing a successful lynch. I wasn't gonna claim unless someone else did. I guess from a strategic standpoint I may prefer no lynch (to be determined later) but I am also fine with having stuff happen in this game and keeping it lively. If everyone roleclaims we can potentially figure out the best thing to do at night. But again, I think the best benefit is to make the mafia squirm. So for that reason, I'd be fine with mass claiming right now.

My thoughts on Morgrim: Really unsure. I think he's being crazy as usual, but that concerns me. It doesn't look good for him but I think there is still a real chance he is town. And even if he is mafia, there are two others. Lynching one of them may very well be the safer bet.

[O]

In post #169 Insomniac specified that there are 3 Mafia.

Can someone please explain to me why we want to massclaim now?  I can see massclaiming when we're at lynch-right-or-lose - when we have nothing to lose from all power roles outing themselves - but that's not the situation we're in:  the situation is mislynch-and-lose.  If we ultimately vote "no lynch" we go into Night 3 with 8 people alive, and can expect to reach Day 4 intact.  But why would we want to tip off to the Mafia who the Town's protective role(s) are before we get to Night 3?  Doesn't that just let them guide their Night 3 kill to where it will do us the most damage?

I'm happy to go along with this if someone can please explain what benefit the Town gets from it.  So far I haven't seen that.  I've only seen "should we do this?" from O and "eh, I guess" from Dsell (heavily paraphased). 

Pre-post Edit:  And I just saw Morgrim's latest.  Which flat-out does not make sense to me.  To my eye, the most likely explanation for Morgrim's actions is that he has affirmatively decided to the play the "crazy" card to the hilt.  And that has me more worried he IS in fact Mafia, and that he and/or his compatriots have affirmatively decided "Morgrim's only chance is the crazy defense, so Morgrim, go all out with the crazy, and if it works, great."  Because his latest accusation of O is, by any reckoning, crazy.  Not just for the reason Dsell cited, but also for the simple reason that Morgrim's supposedly being VT would not preclude O from being VT as well. 

Dsell, I would like to hear whether Morgrim's latest makes him more or less suspicious in your eyes.

Pre-pre-post Edit:  Jumped, O.  Would have posted half an hour ago but had to figure out my thoughts on Morgrim first when I tried to post the first time and "3 new replies" came up.

Nolynch has consequences:

1) Mafia can have powerroles that mean NK is loss-unless-saved (One-shot extra kill, convert one townie, etc.)
2) We lose our buffer of a misslynch then a save and move directly to Lylo