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[Captain_Frisk]

Do you think this counterclaim was planned?

[TheMunch]

@volt wrt 1: just because it's bad cop play doesn't mean that's not what he did, especially if he is new.

[Voltgloss]

Do you think this counterclaim was planned?

I think they planned that, if Eevee wasn't in fact the Cop, and if a Cop claimed today with an investigation result ON either one of them, then the incriminated party would counterfakeclaim.  It's their only hope to win in the face of impending Follow-the-Cop.

When I claimed Cop without revealing my investigation results, and waited for everybody to counterclaim-or-not, I think Qvist reasoned "if he investigated me and I don't counterfakeclaim right now, we lose; his posts today suggest he could have investigated me; I better counterfakeclaim while I have the chance."

Notice also how Axxle posted absolutely no content after my claim (other than his "back to the drawing board" unvote).  He was waiting for Qvist's counterfakeclaim, immediately after which he (Axxle) pounced to back it up.

[TheMunch]

Question. Why would scum counterclaim after we just outlined reasons why it was in fact very good for scum if only the real cop claimed?

[Voltgloss]

@volt wrt 1: just because it's bad cop play doesn't mean that's not what he did, especially if he is new.

That's my point.  It is what a new player could think they should do as a Cop - and that could be why Qvist claimed it; because that's what he would have done if he were really the Cop. 

I'm not trying to suggest that "Qvist selecting Frisk as his fake investigation target is strong evidence that Qvist is the faker."  It's weak evidence at best and more a nulltell than anything.  The only reason I discussed it is because Frisk specifically asked. 

The reasons why Qvist is the faker are the other facets I've described in my previous posts.

[Captain_Frisk]

Axxle - what would it take to convince you that qvist is scum?

[TheMunch]

@volt wrt 1: just because it's bad cop play doesn't mean that's not what he did, especially if he is new.

That's my point.  It is what a new player could think they should do as a Cop - and that could be why Qvist claimed it; because that's what he would have done if he were really the Cop. 

I'm not trying to suggest that "Qvist selecting Frisk as his fake investigation target is strong evidence that Qvist is the faker."  It's weak evidence at best and more a nulltell than anything.  The only reason I discussed it is because Frisk specifically asked. 

The reasons why Qvist is the faker are the other facets I've described in my previous posts.

If its what they think they should do as cop this doesn't effect whether or not it would be what they fake claimed or what they actually would do as cop.  If he thinks as cop he investigates his scum reads, then thats what he is going to do.  It is in fact a nulltell but you were giving it in response to the question why did he chose to "fake" investigate CF.  It seems more like you are setting him up to look bad than giving facts.

Right now I'm wrestling with silver tongued VG which feels like he could be the liar, or new Qvist with Axxle very quick to Qvists defense.  I dont know if Scum would be so openly defense of their scummate in this situation, even if keeping Qvist alive was the "only way to win" since then we would know axxle was the other scum and that would completely ruin all the work.  Axxle has felt a lot like me this game: wrong at times but sure of his reads and pushing them in a very town way.  I would say that scum!axxle would neither be so bold or so stupid to defend Qvist tooth and nail.

[Voltgloss]

Question. Why would scum counterclaim after we just outlined reasons why it was in fact very good for scum if only the real cop claimed?

Because all of the reasons we discussed leading up to my claim had a baseline, reasonable, but incorrect assumption:  That the Cop had no meaningful investigation results.

This was, in fact, not correct.  Only three people knew that the Cop had a meaningful investigation:  myself, and the two scum.  The Cop having an investigation today that clears town dramatically changes things.  They feared that I, as Cop, had an incriminating investigation result in my back pocket.  That's why they felt they had to counterclaim.

[TheMunch]

Same goes for you though, VG.  If you are scum, you knew that the cop had an investigation today as well (in this case it would be you, your scumbuddy, and Qvist).  You fish for the counterclaim, use the fact that you want everyone to claim to deduce the cop is Qvist and track him while he posts.  Qvist, if he is the real cop, could have just as easily had an incriminating result which you were afraid of him having, so you fishing for him was entirely a plan to set him up to fail.

You keep giving reasons that are reasons why either of you can be cop...

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok:

Without voting, I'd like each person to weigh in on QVist vs. Voltgloss.  You must also pick their scum buddy.

Yuma: Prefers Qvist.  No scumbuddy read.
Axxle: Thins its Volt / Asher
TheMunch: Has not answered.  Voted Qvist before I made him calm down.  Now wants to lynch Axxle?
Asher: Has not answered.  At all.

[TheMunch]

Ok:

Without voting, I'd like each person to weigh in on QVist vs. Voltgloss.  You must also pick their scum buddy.

Yuma: Prefers Qvist.  No scumbuddy read.
Axxle: Thins its Volt / Asher
TheMunch: Has not answered.  Voted Qvist before I made him calm down.  Now wants to lynch Axxle?
Asher: Has not answered.  At all.

nonono I dont.  I was just following the hypothetical line of reason Ashersky(?) laid down cause I dont know what to think anymore.  My opinion on VG/Qv is in the previous post.  You should read it.

[Voltgloss]

Same goes for you though, VG.  If you are scum, you knew that the cop had an investigation today as well (in this case it would be you, your scumbuddy, and Qvist).  You fish for the counterclaim, use the fact that you want everyone to claim to deduce the cop is Qvist and track him while he posts.  Qvist, if he is the real cop, could have just as easily had an incriminating result which you were afraid of him having, so you fishing for him was entirely a plan to set him up to fail.

You keep giving reasons that are reasons why either of you can be cop...

It's not the same, because I made the claim when I didn't have to.

Scum wouldn't want to fakeclaim Cop today if they can avoid it.  What they were hoping was that the Cop had "only" a town investigative result (or, even better, tried to investigate Eevee and thus had no info at all), thus giving them a chance to kill the Doc tonight and the Cop tomorrow before the entire scumteam is outed.

I expect that if I had claimed Cop and, in the same breath, said I had "only" an investigation result on town, then they would NOT have counterclaimed and instead laid low.  The only reason they are fakecounterclaiming is because they felt they absolutely HAD to do so.

Side note:  there's nothing in Qvist's Day 3 posts before his fakecounterclaim to suggest he could be the Cop.  Remember is lukewarm response to the counterclaim idea.  A new Cop player who hasn't already claimed would not react that way. 

[Voltgloss]

^ "Remember is" should be "Remember his"

[Voltgloss]

Gonna have spotty access for rest of day but will respond to questions when I can/am available.

[Captain_Frisk]

Ok:

Without voting, I'd like each person to weigh in on QVist vs. Voltgloss.  You must also pick their scum buddy.

Yuma: Prefers Qvist.  No scumbuddy read.
Axxle: Thins its Volt / Asher
TheMunch: Has not answered.  Voted Qvist before I made him calm down.  Now wants to lynch Axxle?
Asher: Has not answered.  At all.

nonono I dont.  I was just following the hypothetical line of reason Ashersky(?) laid down cause I dont know what to think anymore.  My opinion on VG/Qv is in the previous post.  You should read it.

I haven't seen anything from you that says one way or the other "I think the scum team is: X / Y" which is what I"m asking.

[TheMunch]

It's not the same, because I made the claim when I didn't have to.

Or when you shouldn't have.  Whats burned in my brain is the last theory discussion before you claimed said if cop were to claim solo, we have a 40% chance to win.

Scum wouldn't want to fakeclaim Cop today if they can avoid it.  What they were hoping was that the Cop had "only" a town investigative result (or, even better, tried to investigate Eevee and thus had no info at all), thus giving them a chance to kill the Doc tonight and the Cop tomorrow before the entire scumteam is outed.

Real cop might not want to claim either.  Qvist said he was going to be posting about some theory stuff and checking numbers.  Something a cop should do before claiming.

I expect that if I had claimed Cop and, in the same breath, said I had "only" an investigation result on town, then they would NOT have counterclaimed and instead laid low.  The only reason they are fakecounterclaiming is because they felt they absolutely HAD to do so.

Well I guess we'll never know.

Side note:  there's nothing in Qvist's Day 3 posts before his fakecounterclaim to suggest he could be the Cop.  Remember is lukewarm response to the counterclaim idea.  A new Cop player who hasn't already claimed would not react that way.

To be fair I have seen equal evidence that both of you were breadcrumbing the same claim...

[Captain_Frisk]

@themunch - its the final play of the game, you have to make a pick.. yOU have 10 seconds - who is your scumteam?

[TheMunch]

@themunch - its the final play of the game, you have to make a pick.. yOU have 10 seconds - who is your scumteam?

CF/TheMunch

[TheMunch]

@themunch - its the final play of the game, you have to make a pick.. yOU have 10 seconds - who is your scumteam?

No Seriously.

VG/Ash but I'm very uncomfortable about who VG's scumbuddy is.

[Voltgloss]

It's not the same, because I made the claim when I didn't have to.

Or when you shouldn't have.  Whats burned in my brain is the last theory discussion before you claimed said if cop were to claim solo, we have a 40% chance to win.

40% is wrong when the Cop has a result today.  I knew the odds were better.  So did scum.  No one else did.  I wanted to see how people reacted.  I'll redo the math to show what the real odds are with the Cop claiming today.

[Voltgloss]

Munch:  say I get lynched.  When I flip Town Cop, who is Qvist's scumbuddy?

[Voltgloss]

Here are the real odds of random-chance lynching scum today, with my claiming and confirming CF as town, assuming no scum counterclaim:

I. (2/5)  We lynch scum

II. (2/5)  We lynch VT

III. (1/5)  We try to lynch Doc, but he claims
{A} (2/4)  We then lynch scum (w/ Doc outed)
{B} (2/4)  We then lynch VT (w/ Doc outed)

Chance of lynching scum:
- Outcome I, (2/5); +
- Outcome IIIA, (1/5)*(2/4); = 50%

Not 40%.  50%.  And that's pure randomness.

Whereas if I did NOT claim, and did NOT reveal CF as confirmed town today, the chance of lynching scum today was still 40%.

That's why it made sense for me to claim, even if I didn't entice scum to reveal themselves by counterclaiming.

[Captain_Frisk]

Here's another way to get to .50 volt

a. Lynch Volt
b. Lynch Qvist

[TheMunch]

It's not the same, because I made the claim when I didn't have to.

Or when you shouldn't have.  Whats burned in my brain is the last theory discussion before you claimed said if cop were to claim solo, we have a 40% chance to win.

40% is wrong when the Cop has a result today.  I knew the odds were better.  So did scum.  No one else did.  I wanted to see how people reacted.  I'll redo the math to show what the real odds are with the Cop claiming today.

Contradiction: earlier when you claimed you said you claimed to release pressure from CF since I wasn't unvoting, it had nothing to do with odds.

[Voltgloss]

Here's another way to get to .50 volt

a. Lynch Volt
b. Lynch Qvist

You're absolutely right.  Which is further evidence why, if I were scum, fakeclaiming without needing to do so would have been stupid.

If I were scum, and the Cop kept quiet, there would be a 40% random chance of scum being lynched today.
Scum fakeclaiming without having to do so bumps that up to 50%.

If I were scum, why would I want to increase the town's random chance of lynching scum today?