Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[faust]

Because three people didn't send anything. If I lied, than that means two people who claimed to have sent something didn't send anything, and town doesn't lie about this sort of thing.

Yeah, so it's sum who lied. So what?

*scum, obviously

[XerxesPraelor]

What's going on here?  Why are people simultaneously saying Archetype sent an item and then proceeding as if he didn't?

If Archetype did not send an item, then there is probably no lying going on.

If Archetype did send an item (which is the most likely case; he said he was going to and he was town), then there is at least one scum in those that claimed to send items. 

Cases:

1 claimed to send, 2 did not.  In this case, both Xerxes and Yuma are scum.

2 claimed to send, 1 did not.  In this case, one of Xerxes and Yuma are scum.

3 claimed to send, 0 did not.  In this case, both Xerxes and Yuma are town. 

I believe this is what Faust was saying.  In the third case, two scum must have sent items to Sudgy (one lied and picked the one Archetype happened to send).  In the second case, one is lying and one sent truthfully.  In the first case, no scum sent items to Sudgy and one lied.

Did I oversimplify something or is this correct?

What?? This makes no sense at all. Now, I know bad arguments aren't supposed to influence your reads, but this is really ridiculous. I'll give more in a later post, but here's what we know:

-Sudgy received t-3 items
-t-2 people claimed to have sent an item
-Therefore, someone claimed to have sent an item and was lying
-If even one of yuma and I lied, that means that all scum lied about what they sent or didn't, and I think that's pretty unlikely, because lying tends to get you caught

PPE: Actually, I misread what you said - regardless, the evidence shows that yuma and I are telling the truth.

[faust]

What's going on here?  Why are people simultaneously saying Archetype sent an item and then proceeding as if he didn't?

If Archetype did not send an item, then there is probably no lying going on.

If Archetype did send an item (which is the most likely case; he said he was going to and he was town), then there is at least one scum in those that claimed to send items. 

Cases:

1 claimed to send, 2 did not.  In this case, both Xerxes and Yuma are scum.

2 claimed to send, 1 did not.  In this case, one of Xerxes and Yuma are scum.

3 claimed to send, 0 did not.  In this case, both Xerxes and Yuma are town. 

I believe this is what Faust was saying.  In the third case, two scum must have sent items to Sudgy (one lied and picked the one Archetype happened to send).  In the second case, one is lying and one sent truthfully.  In the first case, no scum sent items to Sudgy and one lied.

Did I oversimplify something or is this correct?

I think this is oversimplified. The whole range of possibilities (assuming that Arch sent something and town didn't lie) is this:

Case A: Scum sent three items
Not possible, because then sudgy would have received one item more.

Case B: Scum sent two items

Case B.1: Three scum claimed to have sent items.
In this case, the third scum would have correctly guessed Arch's item, and both Xerxes and yuma are town.

Case B.2: Two scum claimed to have sent items.
In this case, one of yuma/Xerxes is scum.

Case B.3: Less than two scum claimed to have sent items.
Not possible, because then the number of received items would be greater than the number of claimed items.

Case C: Scum sent one item

Case C.1: Three scum claimed to have sent items
Not possible, because then sudgy would only have received 7 items.

Case C.2: Two scum claimed to have sent items
In this case, again, one of Xerxes/yuma is scum.

Case C.3: Less than two scum claimed to have sent an item
Not possible, because then the number of received items wouldn't match the number of sent items.

Case D: Scum sent 0 items.
In this case, it immediately follows that one scum claimed to have sent an item and two haven't. So we get that both yuma and Xerxes are scum, and the third scum correctly guessed Arch's item.

I hope this is now correct. Please double-check, if you feel up to it.

[faust]

What?? This makes no sense at all. Now, I know bad arguments aren't supposed to influence your reads, but this is really ridiculous. I'll give more in a later post, but here's what we know:

-Sudgy received t-3 items
-t-2 people claimed to have sent an item
-Therefore, someone claimed to have sent an item and was lying
-If even one of yuma and I lied, that means that all scum lied about what they sent or didn't, and I think that's pretty unlikely, because lying tends to get you caught

PPE: Actually, I misread what you said - regardless, the evidence shows that yuma and I are telling the truth.

Wow. Too bad I'm already voting Xerxes.

[faust]

Oh, I think Case B.2 in my analysis above is also not possible, right? Because then again numbers wouldn't match up?

[Witherweaver]

@Faust:

I think we're saying the same thing.  I just organized the cases by what scum claimed instead of what scum actually sent.  You could also go into the same subcases of what was actually sent within each "claim" scenario.

@Xerxes:

You and Yuma telling the truth doesn't mean you're not scum... the liar is in the set of people that claimed to send items.  If only 1 scum claimed to send, then the other 2 had to claim not to.  If 2 scum claimed, then 1 claimed not to, and if all 3 claimed, then none claimed not to.

[pingpongsam]

I am unwilling to subscribe the possibility that scum correctly guessed Archetype's sent item.

[Witherweaver]

I am unwilling to subscribe the possibility that scum correctly guessed Archetype's sent item.

You're unwilling to subscribe to the possibility of an outcome that has a 1/4 chance of occurring?

[faust]

I am unwilling to subscribe the possibility that scum correctly guessed Archetype's sent item.

What other explanation do you propose then? That one town member claimed to have sent an item they actually didn't send? Or that Arch failed to send an item? I don't believe that.

[XerxesPraelor]

What's going on here?  Why are people simultaneously saying Archetype sent an item and then proceeding as if he didn't?

If Archetype did not send an item, then there is probably no lying going on.

If Archetype did send an item (which is the most likely case; he said he was going to and he was town), then there is at least one scum in those that claimed to send items. 

Cases:

1 claimed to send, 2 did not.  In this case, both Xerxes and Yuma are scum.

2 claimed to send, 1 did not.  In this case, one of Xerxes and Yuma are scum.

3 claimed to send, 0 did not.  In this case, both Xerxes and Yuma are town. 

I believe this is what Faust was saying.  In the third case, two scum must have sent items to Sudgy (one lied and picked the one Archetype happened to send).  In the second case, one is lying and one sent truthfully.  In the first case, no scum sent items to Sudgy and one lied.

Did I oversimplify something or is this correct?

I think this is oversimplified. The whole range of possibilities (assuming that Arch sent something and town didn't lie) is this:

Case A: Scum sent three items
Not possible, because then sudgy would have received one item more.

Case B: Scum sent two items

Case B.1: Three scum claimed to have sent items.
In this case, the third scum would have correctly guessed Arch's item, and both Xerxes and yuma are town.

Case B.2: Two scum claimed to have sent items.
In this case, one of yuma/Xerxes is scum.

Case B.3: Less than two scum claimed to have sent items.
Not possible, because then the number of received items would be greater than the number of claimed items.

Case C: Scum sent one item

Case C.1: Three scum claimed to have sent items
Not possible, because then sudgy would only have received 7 items.

Case C.2: Two scum claimed to have sent items
In this case, again, one of Xerxes/yuma is scum.

Case C.3: Less than two scum claimed to have sent an item
Not possible, because then the number of received items wouldn't match the number of sent items.

Case D: Scum sent 0 items.
In this case, it immediately follows that one scum claimed to have sent an item and two haven't. So we get that both yuma and Xerxes are scum, and the third scum correctly guessed Arch's item.

I hope this is now correct. Please double-check, if you feel up to it.

Why are you dividing everything up so scum-centrically? That sort of organization is much more likely to come from scum who was thinking about who to send stuff to. vote: faust

By far, the most likely thing is that 3 scum claimed to have sent items, and two of them did.

Here's what you're pretty much doing with your argument.
-------------------
Okay, here are the main cases.

1. Faust isn't scum
2. Faust is scum, and his partners are ash and ww
3. Faust is scum, and his partners are yuma and jimmm
4. Faust is scum, and his partners are pps and adk.
5. Faust is scum, and his partners are voltaire and xeiron
6....

Look how likely it is that faust is scum!
-----------------

[XerxesPraelor]

I am unwilling to subscribe the possibility that scum correctly guessed Archetype's sent item.

What other explanation do you propose then? That one town member claimed to have sent an item they actually didn't send? Or that Arch failed to send an item? I don't believe that.

You think the possibility that arch forgot to send an item is worth considering in comparison to 25%?

[faust]

I am unwilling to subscribe the possibility that scum correctly guessed Archetype's sent item.

What other explanation do you propose then? That one town member claimed to have sent an item they actually didn't send? Or that Arch failed to send an item? I don't believe that.

You think the possibility that arch forgot to send an item is worth considering in comparison to 25%?

I have reason to believe that Arch did NOT forget to send an item.

[XerxesPraelor]

I am unwilling to subscribe the possibility that scum correctly guessed Archetype's sent item.

What other explanation do you propose then? That one town member claimed to have sent an item they actually didn't send? Or that Arch failed to send an item? I don't believe that.

You think the possibility that arch forgot to send an item is worth considering in comparison to 25%?

I have reason to believe that Arch did NOT forget to send an item.

Are you able to tell us that reason?

[faust]

The post you quote is not a case against you. The case against you is, scum wants to keep their pretty items. Hence, they only send as much items to sudgy as absolutely needed. Hence it is much more likely that they sent 0 or 1 item than two. In both these cases, you are highly likely to be scum. Add in my previous scumread on you and you're the perfect lynch candidate.

[faust]

I am unwilling to subscribe the possibility that scum correctly guessed Archetype's sent item.

What other explanation do you propose then? That one town member claimed to have sent an item they actually didn't send? Or that Arch failed to send an item? I don't believe that.

You think the possibility that arch forgot to send an item is worth considering in comparison to 25%?

I have reason to believe that Arch did NOT forget to send an item.

Are you able to tell us that reason?

Unfortunately, I'm not.

[XerxesPraelor]

The post you quote is not a case against you. The case against you is, scum wants to keep their pretty items. Hence, they only send as much items to sudgy as absolutely needed. Hence it is much more likely that they sent 0 or 1 item than two. In both these cases, you are highly likely to be scum. Add in my previous scumread on you and you're the perfect lynch candidate.

Except for that I'm perfectly willing to send sudgy or whoever items once we work out a proper plan. If the point is to deny town items,

[XerxesPraelor]

Oops, posted halfway through.

If the point is to deny town items, I'm not doing a very good job of it. I haven't used any of the items, and now I have more so that I can give just what people actually need and not waste anything.

[faust]

I'm involved in a few other games; no prod please.

On the hot potato thing, we should definitely use it as an extra lynch or maybe if we want to nolynch to allow powers to be used that could also work.
Why do we need a second person for the items? WHy not just send everything to the IC?

By the way, this is Xerxes from D1.

[pingpongsam]

I am unwilling to subscribe the possibility that scum correctly guessed Archetype's sent item.

You're unwilling to subscribe to the possibility of an outcome that has a 1/4 chance of occurring?

It's more like I am unwilling to be tunneled into strictly using the items sent as the basis for determining where scum is. This easily works towards a mislynch. I think it is a red herring at this point and there are better places to be looking.

[XerxesPraelor]

Why are you showing that quote?

PPE 1: Completely correct. We should be looking at people's interactions with archetype, and not the item stuff. There's just too big of a pool to figure out who to lynch. BTW, was sudgy able to make use of any of the items yet?

[faust]

Why are you showing that quote?

PPE 1: Completely correct. We should be looking at people's interactions with archetype, and not the item stuff. There's just too big of a pool to figure out who to lynch. BTW, was sudgy able to make use of any of the items yet?

Tell me: What is it you're hoping to find in the interactions with Archetype? We don't even know if he was the target scum chose. And I think sudgy best decides himself whether or not to disclose such information.

[faust]

I'm showing the quote because D1, you obviously were willing to send items to sudgy, and yet you didn't do it.

[Witherweaver]

I am unwilling to subscribe the possibility that scum correctly guessed Archetype's sent item.

You're unwilling to subscribe to the possibility of an outcome that has a 1/4 chance of occurring?

It's more like I am unwilling to be tunneled into strictly using the items sent as the basis for determining where scum is. This easily works towards a mislynch. I think it is a red herring at this point and there are better places to be looking.

Okay, fair enough. 

[faust]

I am unwilling to subscribe the possibility that scum correctly guessed Archetype's sent item.

You're unwilling to subscribe to the possibility of an outcome that has a 1/4 chance of occurring?

It's more like I am unwilling to be tunneled into strictly using the items sent as the basis for determining where scum is. This easily works towards a mislynch. I think it is a red herring at this point and there are better places to be looking.

Well, I respectfully disagree.

But what do you think of Xerxes then? Even ignoring the evidence that comes from the items, I think he acts all scummy. Might be biased of course.

[Voltaire]

vote: Xerxes