Oh wow, that was wayy too long of a post I put together. It's so long, I didn't even read it all. Well, at least I didn't want to read it all. Basically that was stream of consciousness in which I said some things I wanted to say, and some half-baked ideas as if they were fully-baked. I'll give the sparknotes version here.
1.
Insomniac has cleared up almost all of my suspicion in his latest post (#247). The only thing he is still consistently wrong on is part 4 of that post, in which he still says that a few people claiming in Cups/Pentacles and a few in Wand/Swords would confirm both scum factions. This is just plain incorrect. But he's been consistently wrong about that in a mistake-type way instead of a scum-type way. So I think I'll move my vote off of him.
2.
I didn't like people jumping at ftl's votecount mistake; it was soooo wrong that this couldn't possibly be a scumslip, this was so large-scale that it had to be innocent. Ehunt makes some suspicious analysis regarding not being the 5th vote (note to self, track ehunt's votes) when, in a hilarious comedy of errors, ftl was never worried about being the 5th vote he was incorrectly not wanting to be 4th of 5 when he would have actually been 3 of 3 if he had stayed. Nobody even noticed that O switched his vote off already.
3. This leads into my referenced
suspicion of Axxle. Usually super-level headed and accurate, he also doesn't realize that angrybird is already on Galz. But he doesn't like the on/off pressure of Galz. But he also brought pressure on Galz with vote #3 and then pulls it off, using ftl's mistake as his reason. But what surprised me the most is that after putting slight suspicion on ftl, all it took was yuma posting the vote order for Axxle to almost immediately jump ship. This feels like he also wanted to take pressure off Galz, but looked for a flimsy reason to do so, instead of having the guts just to pull his vote straight off Galz.
What really sits weird with me and Axxle is the way he does things really without stating explanations. an example, is
Vote Count
Galzria (2): O, angrybirds
Sure
Vote: Galzria
OR
And I have yet to see him answer this question:
I guess Morgrim mentioned that Galz looked real scummy because
He's been awfully quiet, (something he doesn't normally do) and when he does say something, its like this: I apologize for the delay. I'm trying to get caught up everywhere but I'm exhausted. I see I have 4 votes on me? Exciting times! Still, those of you waiting for answers will need to wait a little bit longer. I need to catch some Zzz's (and trust me, they've been elusive). Luckily, other games should be moving into Night soon, so I should have time to catch up on all (...8? >.>) pages here tomorrow.
Is this the reason that he looked scummy to you ftl? Or was it really just because you wanted there to be a bandwagon? What was the reason for your vote, Axxle? Is there really something to that Lie Detector role? I wonder if there's something I've missed but I have only the neutralest of reads on Galz so far. Hey Galz, post more!
#2: I'm looking like someone who wants to appear town... Well, sure. I mean, I'm not playing with the goal of saying "look at me! I'm town!", but certainly wanting to appear town is not exactly a scumtell.
Overly wanting to appear doing pro-town things, without actually doing pro-town things, is a scumtell though.
What was he agreeing to in the first post? Maximum vagueness=maximum future flexibility. And in the second post, I was looking forward to seeing his answer and comparing it to his previous feelings on this issue. Axxle avoids this possibility by directly quoting something he already said. This seems suspicious to me, especially as the "Overly wanting to appear doing pro-town things, without actually doing pro-town things, is a scumtell though" now looks to be an explanation of his vote where it had never been put in this context before. And if this was his scumtell on Galz, it was never answered or responded to before Axxle was willing to give up that path and vote for ftl. Weird.
4. Ok, so that last point was actually new, so back to sparknoting.
I'm questioning how strong of a scumtell not actively hunting is, as even the scum have incentive to root out the opposing faction fast. if they can always lynch an opposing faction, then nightkill town, they would be infinitely happy.
5.
My major half-baked idea was burgeoning suspicion on sparky, that was my inner monologue debating his status, and it ended in non-suspicion. But as I was going through his posts and analyzing them, the read became increasingly non-scum and I backed off in the end. The in-post 180deg flip was what "slap me with a wrench" indicated. I don't regret putting out some of sparky's more suspicious moves, but I do regret FoS-ing him when I am currently getting overall town-reads from him.
6.
I apologize for drunk and tired rants, i'll try to keep those in check.