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[Axxle]

Argg! This is a dificult game, man

@Insomniac, post #247 clears you of most of the problems in my head, your first response in 63 sounded like you were tryin to write something huge , and then cayvie's post popped up and made obsolete some of the things you were saying.  There is only one deal left and that is point four in #247.  You are clearly assuming that if 2 people say "I have cups" then we definitely have Mafia.  What?? Thast' crazy talk.  tehre are plenty of nonmafia roles in every suit (i still dont know how we could get anyone to voluunteer, it seems that if 2 ppl claim cups you assume there is mafia, so one of themhas to be it--no town, mafia, ww, or other will jump infront of that gun).  So i'm feeling more like you are with me these days,and are just confused about probability, or something like that.  So i'm rereading everyingn to see who I would switch my bvote to and golly, this is a diffcult game! I'm flippin/ paranoid of everybody! (ow, just accidently punched ans endtqble!!) it turns out that i even type with big gestureso, and not jsut talk withthem.

recently ftl gag seems exactly like a mistake to me; not scummy slipupmisake, because it's way too ridiculous to not be a brainfart/total slip.  I'm expecting a scummy ftl to find a way to nonchalontly pull off of Galz and onto whatever bandwagon might work. A town ftl probably wouldn't want to stay on a galz wagon just because he hasn't been posting as muh as usual, thats just a flimsy reason.  the difference is how he does it.  ftl misses O's voteswitch to voltglosss (galz now at 3) gets worried that angry will be a new bote on Galz DESPITE FTL being teh guy who asked angrybird to explain why galz seems scummy enough tokeep his voet there.  Then enter ehunt, with really strange analysis with not wanting to be the 5th voter. is 5th voter a thing?? ?? that sounds stupid.  also, in a hilarious comedy of errors, ftl was never worried about being the 5th vote he was incorrectly not wanting to be 4th of 5 when he would have actually been 3 of 3 if he had stayed.  I disagree with Axxles suspicoun over ftl's flipflop on galz pressure.  he wanted a bandwagon to see what happened.  nothing happend. Now he's reasssessing players and he says "i don't want 5 on galz".  i agree, i also gonot want galz to be lynched, he's giving me complete null reads, and I want to lynch someoen who i read as sucm.

here's the real deal guys. i realized taht people who are not scum hunting, or are trying to look hunty without actually doing it are just playing badyly. with teh multiple factions, those old tells aren't hte same.  EVERYBODY wants to scumhunt now.  it's even beetter to be scumhunting as scum because the people you suspect/find coudl only ever be at best (when a scumtell is spoton) a competng scum faction, or if you're wrong it's a townie, there's no way to fail for them.  now me, i'm terrified at failing, and i suspect if we go back and read tings, which i'll do tomorrwo when i sober up, those who area the most terrified are probably more likely to be town.  So damn, that sentence makes me recondier Galz, who sparky keeps saying is confident.  but it's different confidence maybe, i mean, im loking for someone who is scared of voting ofr the wrong person, not someone who is scared of being voted for--those guys are my town reads, or will be, or mightnot if i can't tell whose sufficiently scared.

but wait, sparky is on my list of suspicious dudes right now, even though he was almost on my certain-town list a while ago. check this, he started off by asking "why dont major arcana just claim?" in #83 and I had him explain it.  that was back in everyfuckingslipupis ascumtell-shraeye days.  but it's not, mistakes happen too, and if i inspect hard enoguh i bet i can find some of MY posts that don't sit well with me for some reason.  but the question we need to ask is why did this mistake happen, and was it relevent.  so here i go with some analysis on spartky.
He explained his reason for saying that in #100, but

here's my reasoning. I initially found Volt's query unnecessarily complex. Once you suit claim, there's automatically a possibility you're Major Arcana

is weird. voltgloss's query wasnt complex, and the auto-possibility doesn't come after a suitclaim.  it came when we started this game.  when you sort MajorA into suits, of course theres a possibility that a particluar card from one suit is a MajorA, that's not news or a reason for anything. But he does say he eventually realized that people will be watching you more closely so it's hard.  why wouldn't he immediately realize that people will watch the major arcana for scumminess, maybe because he personal is not trying to assess whether they're scum, jsut what they can do to jack up his faciton's plans, since any major arcana he doens't already know about will definitely be an enemy and is super killable.  for us townies, when a major arcana comes out, we STILL don't know if we want them dead because they might be on our side and our only real chance of overcoming 3 mafia facions.
NExt, he makes some regular hunty posts, with no town/scum reads to them.  but in 155 before i can explain why i voted insomniac in the first place he says

He's already expressed his disagreement with one of Insomniac's posts.

Here was my "disagreement":

If you want something more interesting to discuss look at this post:

So I was gonna say that the main benefit of suit claiming might be to discern if we are dealing with one or two scum factions but perhaps the wind will tell us so I'm going to be against suit claiming

where Insomniac posits that suit-claiming will let us know how many factions we are dealing with.  Protip: it won't tell us anything unless either wands/swords or pentacles/cups had no claimers since we have no good way to tell or suspect that a particular suitclaim is scum.  Maybe he and his scummates were planning to claim in the other suits (all WW wands move to Cups, all WW Swords move to Pentacles, as an example) and make it look like there was one less faction.  No real evidence here, only a bit of food for thought.

Says Insomniac is incorrect, makes seemingly baseless-galz-style accusation, says this isn't really strong evidence.  MAN, that's not disagreement (the fact that i did have personal disagreement with Insomniac's post is irelevent beause that fact only became public in post #159) why were you trying to escalate me against insomniac? sounds like you KNOW insomniac is not on your team.

HEre's what really gets me; sparky posts "What, what, and what? Why should we have exactly 2 deaths? " does it sound like anyone else that he's too concerned about how many deaths there will be.  the exact number of deaths is that last thing on earth that is terrifying me right now.  but it might be of much more concern to someone who has an influence over nightdeaths.

Well slap me with a wrench, i went to look at the next post

One theory that I developed over the years that may be completely bonkers is that longer posts = pro-town. It means that you're putting more effort into protecting the good guys. With mafia, it's hard to do that. Moreover, if mafia just try to disprove anyone whenever the opportunity presents itself, instead of putting their thoughts into one specific issue, it gives them more room into faking innocence. Someone who fits this bill perfectly, is Axxle. His posts seem to be all over the map, and they don't add much.

well, i don't know if in general long posts mean pro-town/anti-town but yeah, it does indicate more effort into hunting.  but in this game EVERYONE wants to hunt!  This post makes me go"ohsnap" i have the wrong read on him". it just feels very genuinely allscumhunty.

Like sparky, axxle, you i also suspect. but this post is gettin enourmous. like my tiredness. so don't jump on that last bit till i can clairify. in the mronign. or afternoon when i wake up.

too long did not read.  Although skimming reveals axxle suspicions.

[Axxle]

sorry I haven't posted much

GOKO f5 took over my entire day today

you've posted more than some.  a lot more than some.

[Morgrim7]

sorry I haven't posted much

GOKO f5 took over my entire day today

you've posted more than some.  a lot more than some.

We're not supposed to talk about me.

[Axxle]

sorry I haven't posted much

GOKO f5 took over my entire day today

you've posted more than some.  a lot more than some.

We're not supposed to talk about me.

Moar Morgrim

[yuma]

sorry I haven't posted much

GOKO f5 took over my entire day today

you've posted more than some.  a lot more than some.

We're not supposed to talk about me.

AAAAAARRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!

[angrybirds]

@ftl thanks for the town vibe i am not getting one from you thou.

[angrybirds]

you've posted more than some.  a lot more than some.

We're not supposed to talk about me.

AAAAAARRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!

chill

[Eevee]

Galzria's new avatar -> a poor lonesome cowboy -> a lonely wolf -> Galzria is a werewolf. It is known.

[sparky5856]

shraeye, that post was, quite unlike you I must admit. All the typos give it away advice for any mafia game, try not to post when you are tired, it's much harder to concentrate. and I'm not just saying this because I'm on the chopping block, this is serious advice.

There are a couple things that I do want to clarify:

I'm pretty sure I talked about werewolves and the sk in an earlier post. I do think saying mafia when I mean scum is a bad habit, I'll try to fix it.

But also this answer sits with me better than Axxle's dismiss-it-out-of-hand style.  I'm getting a good pro-town vibe from you.  You know who I'm not getting pro-town vibes from at all? Insomniac.

Vote: Insomniac

You want to list any specific examples or quotes to back up your vote?

Or are you simply voting because he isn't "pro-town" instead of voting for "scummy-behavior"?

Because to me there is very little that is more confusing than trying to describe what pro-town is and match it up to real townies.

He's already expressed his disagreement with one of Insomniac's posts.

Quote from: Insomniac on August 09, 2012, 06:35:18 pm
So I was gonna say that the main benefit of suit claiming might be to discern if we are dealing with one or two scum factions but perhaps the wind will tell us so I'm going to be against suit claiming
where Insomniac posits that suit-claiming will let us know how many factions we are dealing with.  Protip: it won't tell us anything unless either wands/swords or pentacles/cups had no claimers since we have no good way to tell or suspect that a particular suitclaim is scum.  Maybe he and his scummates were planning to claim in the other suits (all WW wands move to Cups, all WW Swords move to Pentacles, as an example) and make it look like there was one less faction.  No real evidence here, only a bit of food for thought.

That was intended to be against yuma, if anything I was trying to back you up, shraeye. The fact that you, well, didn't agree with Insomniac WAS disagreement.

HEre's what really gets me; sparky posts "What, what, and what? Why should we have exactly 2 deaths? " does it sound like anyone else that he's too concerned about how many deaths there will be.  the exact number of deaths is that last thing on earth that is terrifying me right now.  but it might be of much more concern to someone who has an influence over nightdeaths.

It's the logic of it that bugged me, not so much the night deaths.

There is one thing that is flawed with my posts though that you pointed out:

NExt, he makes some regular hunty posts, with no town/scum reads to them

You're right, I haven't outright accused anyone yet. That's because I'm not yet confident as to who to go for. A random vote probably wouldn't do too much now, huh XD I still want others to respond to my latest question. And yes, clarify whenever you can, whenever you feel more refreshed. Can't say it's good that I'm on the chopping block, but give it your best shot XD

P.S: Morgrim.

[Voltgloss]

Y'know what this game needs?  More votes.

They'll give us something more concrete to discuss.
And they'll put pressure on people to MAKE them discuss.

So I call on everyone who hasn't voted yet to cast a vote in their next post.  And everyone who HAS voted to either affirmatively confirm their current vote or cast a new vote. 

I'll start.

Vote: Robz888

The man said himself he's been skating by.  Let's see what happens when the ice starts to thin.

[yuma]

I will keep mine on sharkbait for basically the same reason

[Robz888]

Y'know what this game needs?  More votes.

They'll give us something more concrete to discuss.
And they'll put pressure on people to MAKE them discuss.

So I call on everyone who hasn't voted yet to cast a vote in their next post.  And everyone who HAS voted to either affirmatively confirm their current vote or cast a new vote. 

I'll start.

Vote: Robz888

The man said himself he's been skating by.  Let's see what happens when the ice starts to thin.

I totally deserve this. I re-read the first half of the thread but haven't had time to catch up on the rest. This game is a little daunting right now, and nothing has jumped out at me as like, "wow, look at that!" Which may mean the mafia are being quiet. And hey, I'm being quiet! Sorry no vote for myself.

Vote: Angrybirds. I will unvote you if you explain to me exactly why you are not mafia, who you think is mafia, and tell us something unique about Yuma, your twinclaim. Yuma is one mafia who always evades us.

[Eevee]

Vote: Axxle

Appears to be posting just for the sake of not lurking. I feel he isnt helping town as much as he could.

[sparky5856]

Y'know what this game needs?  More votes.

They'll give us something more concrete to discuss.
And they'll put pressure on people to MAKE them discuss.

So I call on everyone who hasn't voted yet to cast a vote in their next post.  And everyone who HAS voted to either affirmatively confirm their current vote or cast a new vote. 

You know what, I completely agree with this. Let's break the ice. I've been rambling for too long I think XD

So my vote: VOTE: shark_bait. I've already explained my position on lurkers and not contributing as much as you can.

[shark_bait]

I have to profusely apologize.  My laptop died on me this morning (I'm posting from a friend's computer).  So either I need a replacement for me or I need to be removed.  I don't know how soon I'll be able to get it fixed/get a new one so it does not make sense for me to stay in this game.

[shraeye]

Oh wow, that was wayy too long of a post I put together.  It's so long, I didn't even read it all.  Well, at least I didn't want to read it all.  Basically that was stream of consciousness in which I said some things I wanted to say, and some half-baked ideas as if they were fully-baked.  I'll give the sparknotes version here.

1. Insomniac has cleared up almost all of my suspicion in his latest post (#247).  The only thing he is still consistently wrong on is part 4 of that post, in which he still says that a few people claiming in Cups/Pentacles and a few in Wand/Swords would confirm both scum factions.  This is just plain incorrect.  But he's been consistently wrong about that in a mistake-type way instead of a scum-type way.  So I think I'll move my vote off of him.

2. I didn't like people jumping at ftl's votecount mistake; it was soooo wrong that this couldn't possibly be a scumslip, this was so large-scale that it had to be innocent.  Ehunt makes some suspicious analysis regarding not being the 5th vote (note to self, track ehunt's votes) when, in a hilarious comedy of errors, ftl was never worried about being the 5th vote he was incorrectly not wanting to be 4th of 5 when he would have actually been 3 of 3 if he had stayed.  Nobody even noticed that O switched his vote off already.

3. This leads into my referenced suspicion of Axxle.  Usually super-level headed and accurate, he also doesn't realize that angrybird is already on Galz.  But he doesn't like the on/off pressure of Galz.  But he also brought pressure on Galz with vote #3 and then pulls it off, using ftl's mistake as his reason.  But what surprised me the most is that after putting slight suspicion on ftl, all it took was yuma posting the vote order for Axxle to almost immediately jump ship.  This feels like he also wanted to take pressure off Galz, but looked for a flimsy reason to do so, instead of having the guts just to pull his vote straight off Galz.
What really sits weird with me and Axxle is the way he does things really without stating explanations.  an example, is

Vote Count
Galzria (2): O, angrybirds

Sure

Vote: Galzria

OR

And I have yet to see him answer this question:

I guess Morgrim mentioned that Galz looked real scummy because

He's been awfully quiet, (something he doesn't normally do) and when he does say something, its like this:

I apologize for the delay. I'm trying to get caught up everywhere but I'm exhausted. I see I have 4 votes on me? Exciting times! Still, those of you waiting for answers will need to wait a little bit longer. I need to catch some Zzz's (and trust me, they've been elusive). Luckily, other games should be moving into Night soon, so I should have time to catch up on all (...8? >.>) pages here tomorrow.

Is this the reason that he looked scummy to you ftl?  Or was it really just because you wanted there to be a bandwagon?  What was the reason for your vote, Axxle?  Is there really something to that Lie Detector role?  I wonder if there's something I've missed but I have only the neutralest of reads on Galz so far.  Hey Galz, post more!

#2: I'm looking like someone who wants to appear town... Well, sure. I mean, I'm not playing with the goal of saying "look at me! I'm town!", but certainly wanting to appear town is not exactly a scumtell.

Overly wanting to appear doing pro-town things, without actually doing pro-town things, is a scumtell though.

What was he agreeing to in the first post? Maximum vagueness=maximum future flexibility.  And in the second post, I was looking forward to seeing his answer and comparing it to his previous feelings on this issue.  Axxle avoids this possibility by directly quoting something he already said.  This seems suspicious to me, especially as the "Overly wanting to appear doing pro-town things, without actually doing pro-town things, is a scumtell though" now looks to be an explanation of his vote where it had never been put in this context before.  And if this was his scumtell on Galz, it was never answered or responded to before Axxle was willing to give up that path and vote for ftl.  Weird.

4. Ok, so that last point was actually new, so back to sparknoting. I'm questioning how strong of a scumtell not actively hunting is, as even the scum have incentive to root out the opposing faction fast.  if they can always lynch an opposing faction, then nightkill town, they would be infinitely happy.

5. My major half-baked idea was burgeoning suspicion on sparky, that was my inner monologue debating his status, and it ended in non-suspicion.  But as I was going through his posts and analyzing them, the read became increasingly non-scum and I backed off in the end. The in-post 180deg flip was what "slap me with a wrench" indicated.  I don't regret putting out some of sparky's more suspicious moves, but I do regret FoS-ing him when I am currently getting overall town-reads from him.

6. I apologize for drunk and tired rants, i'll try to keep those in check.

[Eevee]

3. Without commenting too much on other ongoing games, Axxle certainly is not playing "super level-headed" in them either.
6. I read through it, it gave me a huge town vibe. No reason to be sorry, I think posts like that are super informational because it's very hard to fake honest stream of consciousness like that.

[shraeye]

So I call on everyone who hasn't voted yet to cast a vote in their next post.  And everyone who HAS voted to either affirmatively confirm their current vote or cast a new vote. 

I agree fully, the highest vote-count was 10 total I think, and that was an interesting time when Galz/Insomniac had 4/3 votes on them.  If some nonvoters had come down on either side of that issue, we would have seen even more pressure and probably gotten better reads all around.

My sentiments on Axxle mimic Eevee's (#262) and he is the person I'm currently feeling the most scumvibe from.  Here's another piece on him I just noticed.  He reacted weirdly to the ftl-mistake sounding like he was trying pretty hard to make it a thing that got a lot of post time.  But do you know what happened directly before ftl's original mistaky post?  Galz put FoS on Axxle, and Axxle has not yet responded to this.  Bury instead of respond?  Here's not letting that work.

Alright, I just got myself caught up. There is surprisingly little... but... if anybody stands out to me right now it's Axxle. His posts just seem to lack any real content, and there's a whole lot of joking mixed in. Axxle is usually a lot more driven towards pushing for scumhunting. I remember an Axxle from games past who would link useful articles about how to avoid RVS, and how to scumhunt with some efficiency D1 (at least, above average).

vote: Axxle

[ftl]

There's something going on with Axxle, and I don't know what. Vote: Axxle I don't know the vote count but I'm pretty sure that's not L-2 or L-1 or anything yet.

[Galzria]

I'm happy to sheep my own reads into a Vote. I had been hoping to get a response with the FoS since I'm not big on casting votes I'm not sold on... But in the absence of a response Vote: Axxle.

[ehunt]

@shraeye - no, 5th voter isn't a thing. Sorry I was unclear. I just mean I think it's weird for folks to say "I don't want there to be (n) votes on player x" when they mean "I don't want to be perceived as accelerating the wagon."

Speaking of accelerating wagons...

[Axxle]

Sorry, I agree that I'm not as engaged in this game as I should be.  I'll reread the thread and get back to you guys later tonight.

[Axxle]

3. This leads into my referenced suspicion of Axxle.  Usually super-level headed and accurate, he also doesn't realize that angrybird is already on Galz.  But he doesn't like the on/off pressure of Galz.  But he also brought pressure on Galz with vote #3 and then pulls it off, using ftl's mistake as his reason.  But what surprised me the most is that after putting slight suspicion on ftl, all it took was yuma posting the vote order for Axxle to almost immediately jump ship.  This feels like he also wanted to take pressure off Galz, but looked for a flimsy reason to do so, instead of having the guts just to pull his vote straight off Galz.

You're mixing me up with someone else.

[Axxle]

No, wait.  I see what you're saying.  I like where my vote is though.  Whenever you make a vote and say it's "for pressure" it's a pretty scummy thing to do, since you're broadcasting that it's not a serious vote.  And FTL retracts it immediately saying he want's pressure but not that much pressure. 

[Axxle]

No, wait.  I see what you're saying.  I like where my vote is though.  Whenever you make a vote and say it's "for pressure" it's a pretty scummy thing to do, since you're broadcasting that it's not a serious vote.  And FTL retracts it immediately saying he want's pressure but not that much pressure.

Err... not immediately.  I'm really going to have to reread.  for now:
Unvote