So, I would be very surprised if this wagon were scum-free. But I'd be surprised if there were a ton of scum on it. This feels like a panic lynch town did to itself.
I missed all the excitement because I had a work meeting at 11.
MiX is probably the most interesting player in the panic lynch because he was so sure Awaclus was town and so against it. Theoretically, it should give him town points but I'm never that sure as town.
Let me go through the votes in order.
Eevee -- IMO, not that scummy. I don't think scum starts an alternate wagon here. If mail-mi skip was town v town they definitely don't. If one of mail-mi skip was scum, I still think probably scum either stays on the town one to try to push it through or stays on the scum one because they've made peace with a bus. Scum has no incentive to play the 'come on, we need a lynch' card, since no lynch is ok for them and mislynch is good. Maybe scum!Eevee does this because he's betting town won't get their act togetehr and they'll end up with a no lynch, but I just find it unlikely.
WCD -- This is a pivotal vote, IMO. It starts a string of what-the-hell might-as-well votes. I think similar reasoning applies to the Eevee vote -- I'm not sure scum wants to derail a perfectly fine thing they've got going with the mail-mi/skip stand-off, and Didds has to know this vote has a decent chance of starting a real wagon.
skip & mail-mi -- these votes are pure opportunistic me-too-ism. I think this is where you most likely find scum on this wagon, though it could also be town. But the fact that we're looking at the two people who were likely to get lynched if this wagon doesn't work out, I don't think we can derive much from their alignment. Frankly, this is the right move for them regardless of alignment, especially if they are starting to doubt each other's scumminess.
Galzria -- Galz is interesting to me because of how much qualifying and dithering he does before putting down a vote. MiX says "I won't vote Awaclus" and doesn't. Everyone else just sort of votes Awaclus with minimal commentary. Only Galz and sudgy are sort of performatively reluctant about the vote. This is a scum tell, but frankly one I would expect Galz to be wise to. Still, everyone has bad days and it was a crazy, panicked hour so I can believe some poor scum play from Galz.
LaLight 1 -- see skip & mail-mi above, except LaLight doesn't have the "him or me" excuse. So I would call this a scummy vote. I think scum has very little downside in moving at this point.
faust, sudgy, LaLight 2 -- these are pure panic votes. they are 'we waited as long as we could, now we need to vote here or we won't have a lynch'. As such, they're not that telling. Especially faust, being the veteran player that he is, makes this vote almost as a reflex action, regardless of alignment. LaLight is just revoting. As for sudgy, well, I think there's a case for putting him in the same boat as Galz. He is the only one who sort of asks "why Awaclus?" then he doesn't get a satisfying answer, then he votes at the last possible second. It's a little less overt then Galz's performative reluctance but it accomplishes the same thing.
So all in all, here's my wagon analysis scum to chum: Galzria, sudgy, LaLight, mail-mi, skip, faust, Eevee, WCD
Honorable mention goes to MiX, whose vehement opposition to the wagon reads slightly scummy in retrospect.
One might FoS me for being conspicuously absent for all the excitement, and I would accept that as valid. I haven't really looked hard at ADK, Joseph, and scala's actions in the last hour of the day or lack thereof -- there might be something there for someone who wants to investigate on their own. Certainly nothing stood out to me. You could make the case that ADK was positioning himself similar to Galz and sudgy, but didn't need to actually vote so he didn't. But the last-minute-ness of the votes kind of belies that -- by the time he knew he didn't need to vote it was probably too late to do so. So ADK comes out of this towny in my book.
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Topic: BM30: MacGuffin Mafia (Game Over, Scum and Treasure Hunter win!) (Read 198226 times)