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[Captain_Frisk]

So here is the talley on the DSell situation:

People who have voted:
RobZ
Jotheonah
SFS
Tables

People who have expressed willingness:
Pops
Axxle
Captain_Frisk

People who have not:
DSell

Other:
Glooble (hasn't said one way or the other - wants to kill his brother)

Is this right?  Anyone have issues with this characterization?

[jotheonah]

Unvote again. I'm not at all sure about Dsell, honestly. He made good points, referencing earlier posts of his that support his claim. Counterclaim ain't happening and I DO believe this setup could have 2 Woodcutters and a Spy (or whatever SFS's 1-shot cop thing was). If Dsell is town, I'm right back to thinking Robz is SK, which would leave ... a Frisk/Axxle mafia?

[jotheonah]

So here is the talley on the DSell situation:

People who have voted:
RobZ
Jotheonah
SFS
Tables

People who have expressed willingness:
Pops
Axxle
Captain_Frisk

People who have not:
DSell

Other:
Glooble (hasn't said one way or the other - wants to kill his brother)

Is this right?  Anyone have issues with this characterization?

Pretty sure pops wants to follow standard procedure and delay lynch for claim w/o counterclaim.

[Captain_Frisk]

But he has voted for him in the past.

[Captain_Frisk]

Unvote again. I'm not at all sure about Dsell, honestly. He made good points, referencing earlier posts of his that support his claim. Counterclaim ain't happening and I DO believe this setup could have 2 Woodcutters and a Spy (or whatever SFS's 1-shot cop thing was). If Dsell is town, I'm right back to thinking Robz is SK, which would leave ... a Frisk/Axxle mafia?

I can believe 1/2 of that mafia team.

[jotheonah]

Sorry if I look like I'm hedging. Doing a little too much post first, think later. Dsell claim is maddening and I keep going back and forth on it.

[Captain_Frisk]

Observation: If Axxle2 is mafia - does that mean he (Axxle 1+2) wins no matter what?

[popsofctown]

Yes.  He becomes an indifferent force in the game, neither losing nor winning

[Axxle]

People who have expressed willingness:
Axxle

I will not lynch DSell tonight.


PEdit:
@Joth: An Axxle/CF team is laughable, unless you think I'm power-busing.
@CF: Oh, I see you mean history.
@Joth: Your votes are dangerous from this point in the game onwards.  Careful with them.
@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what. 
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.

[popsofctown]

of course, you have to play to your current wincon in the good spirit of things

[jotheonah]

@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what. 
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.

You've thought about this before. And you said "my current wincon" which reads very naturally if you had two different wincons, but awkwardly if they're the same.

Dangerous Vote: Axxle

[Captain_Frisk]

If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now.  Otherwise your points are invalid.

If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing.  My bad.

[SwitchedFromStarcraft]

@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what. 
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.

You've thought about this before. And you said "my current wincon" which reads very naturally if you had two different wincons, but awkwardly if they're the same.

Dangerous Vote: Axxle

I think this is an excellent point by Jo.  Unfortunately, now I'm torn between Dsell, for the reasons Robz stated yesterday, and voting for Axxle because of this.  I may be wrong, but I think those two sentences are huge.

[Axxle]

If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now.  Otherwise your points are invalid.

If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing.  My bad.

Ah, I think I understand.  Just to be on the same page: You say that the worst we can do by lynching DSell is LYLO.  I say that the worst we can do by NOT lynching DSell is LYLO.  Both are true, I think. 

[Axxle]

@CF: I would both win and lose no matter what. 
@pops: I am playing to win my current wincon FWIW.

You've thought about this before. And you said "my current wincon" which reads very naturally if you had two different wincons, but awkwardly if they're the same.

Dangerous Vote: Axxle

I think this is an excellent point by Jo.  Unfortunately, now I'm torn between Dsell, for the reasons Robz stated yesterday, and voting for Axxle because of this.  I may be wrong, but I think those two sentences are huge.

It took me 2-5 seconds to realize the potential win/lose scenario.  I also wanted to address your semi-accusation of me not playing to win.  I sometimes too objectively put myself in other people's shoes (eg Axxle1 mentioned something about "If I flip town")

[Robz888]

If not Dsell, I think I would be for lynching Axxle2, for a previously stated reason that I don't remember (I'm a great character witness, folks).

If Dsell is really a Vig, do you realize we are going to have three deaths tonight, assuming an SK and a still living mafia? That's a scary number of deaths. One of them will be Dsell, I assume.

I guess we should not kill Dsell, probably, even if we don't believe him. Let's say he is innocent. Well, the SK might think he's mafia and the mafia might think he's SK. They probably want to kill him--I think?--in case he does not use his power, so they stop him from using in the future--maybe? So then it's almost like we are getting rid of a problematic person for them. If he is mafia or SK, still, the mafia or the SK might get rid of him. So. Right? Is this thinking sound? I'm honestly not sure that it is. The fact that we don't know whether there are one more and a SK, two mafia, or two mafia + SK, makes this really difficult.

[Captain_Frisk]

If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now.  Otherwise your points are invalid.

If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing.  My bad.

Ah, I think I understand.  Just to be on the same page: You say that the worst we can do by lynching DSell is LYLO.  I say that the worst we can do by NOT lynching DSell is LYLO.  Both are true, I think. 

No - if dsell is a vig and lives, if he uses his power we can lose.

[Axxle]

If there's another vig, speak now and let's lynch DSell now.  Otherwise your points are invalid.

If my points are invalid and the worst we can do is get to lylo, I thought this implied you were willing.  My bad.

Ah, I think I understand.  Just to be on the same page: You say that the worst we can do by lynching DSell is LYLO.  I say that the worst we can do by NOT lynching DSell is LYLO.  Both are true, I think. 

No - if dsell is a vig and lives, if he uses his power we can lose.

That's like saying we can mislynch and lose.  Best thing is to vote for two people.  Lynch one, and vig the other.

[Robz888]

Ugh. Dsell's claim makes this really complicated.

If we have a SK, and it's not Dsell, I would guess that it's Jo, or an investigative-immune Tables. Though they would probably say that it's me.

With 2 one-shot vigs, 1 innocent child, and 1 one-shot cop... could there be 3 mafia and SK? None of these are super powerful. I would think we would need to still have 1 true real cop,doctor, or jailkeeper if that were the case. Though we would hope the Cop knows something by now and would tell us (he should--his odds of surviving another night are super low), and we don't THINK there's been roleblocking (probably just a mafia kill and a SK kill each night--we have an SK at this point), so maybe a doctor?

[Axxle]

Ugh. Dsell's claim makes this really complicated.

If we have a SK, and it's not Dsell, I would guess that it's Jo, or an investigative-immune Tables. Though they would probably say that it's me.

With 2 one-shot vigs, 1 innocent child, and 1 one-shot cop... could there be 3 mafia and SK? None of these are super powerful. I would think we would need to still have 1 true real cop,doctor, or jailkeeper if that were the case. Though we would hope the Cop knows something by now and would tell us (he should--his odds of surviving another night are super low), and we don't THINK there's been roleblocking (probably just a mafia kill and a SK kill each night--we have an SK at this point), so maybe a doctor?

I think it would be balanced enough if the mafia had no power roles.

[Robz888]

If Dsell really is a one-shot vig, and we already had a one-shot vig, there's no way a separate vigilante could be responsible for the extra night kills on Night 1 and 2. So If Dsell is telling the truth--we MUST have a SK. This would mean Grujah probably didn't get to use his kill.

Unfortunately, if Dsell is not telling the truth, it might be because we have a SK.

We probably have a SK, guys.

[Captain_Frisk]

If Dsell really is a one-shot vig, and we already had a one-shot vig, there's no way a separate vigilante could be responsible for the extra night kills on Night 1 and 2. So If Dsell is telling the truth--we MUST have a SK. This would mean Grujah probably didn't get to use his kill.

Unfortunately, if Dsell is not telling the truth, it might be because we have a SK.

We probably have a SK, guys.

We almost certainly do - barring another vig who hasn't claimed.  Wll explain later - trash night

[Captain_Frisk]

All right - I was wrong:  If DSell is mafia - we may not have a serial killer.

Ok - If we assume a scenario with 3 vigs is impossible:

Scenario 1: Tables is telling the truth - and we have 3 vigs.  This is impossible per the assumption.
Scenario 2: Tables is telling the truth - and we have a different serial killer who is responsible for the death(s) of the additional night kill (s).
Scenario 3: Tables is lying and is Serial Killer - and is using the one shot vig for cover of a future kill.  He made the extra night kill(s).  A 2nd vig may have also assisted.
Scenario 4: Tables is lying and is mafia - and we have a serial killer responsible for the night kill(s).
Scenario 5: Tables is mafia - and we have a vig who is responsible for the extra night kill (s).

So - lets give everyone  some time to come in and claim partial vig.  If we agree that 3 vigs is extremely unlikely - then anyone claiming vig results in scenario 3, 4 or 5 - and a guaranteed lynch of scum.

I'll start us off:

I am not a vig.

If I were even a partial vig - I'd claim here, because even if that means I'll be night killed, trading 1:1 scum for town seems like it is in our interest, and I might have doctorly protection coming. 

If no-one claims - then we have a serial killer - because the 5th scenario  (DSell = mafia + Grujah Kill + Other Vig Kill) is off the table.

[Voltgloss]

Vote Count 3-11

Captain_Frisk (1): Axxle
Dsell (2): Tables, SwitchedFromStarcraft
Axxle (2): popsofctown, jotheonah

Not voting {4}: Dsell, Captain_Frisk, Glooble, Robz888

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Lynch Deadline:  Thursday, July 12, 4:59 p.m. EDT

[Tables]

Well, things just got interesting. I'm inclined not to believe DSell's claim, but agree we should essentially agree two targets today and let the night help our decision. Reasonable/likely candidates are: Frisk, Axxle and Joth. Pops, Glooble and Robz aren't off the table, but I think they're less good targets personally. Although I suspect, for obvious reasons, if we have a SK it's likely Robz (hey, Robz predicted I'd say that! Does that mean I lose because of OMGUS? Speaking of which I can prove I'm not investigation immune - just have someone shoot me and when I survive you know I picked BP).

I'm still really not sure on Joth, Axxle and Frisk. Frisk I'm now reading more town on, and both Axxle and Joth I can still see as mafia. Especially if we're too believe DSell, which is the more likely mafia? I'm really sitting on the fence here. Is there some useful choices we can make, like 'if X is mafia, shoot Y, otherwise, shoot Z'?

Unvote