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[EFHW]

My take on UoS's voting was that 1). Voting faust is a very safe place for scum. He's very unlikely to be lynched, but if he is, then bonus. 2) Other than sitting there, he has taken very safe positions on wagons, joining them once they are established. 3). Of the 6 large wagons he was on 4 or 5 (can't remember which, away from my notes.)

[raerae]

What I am seeing in the reasoning targeting me is all fairly logical for Day 2. Just keep in mind that almost all of this applies to raerae except for leaving the MiX wagon.
When I flip town after yall lynch me, I want you to remember that.
Vote: RaeRae

But if I'm doing everything you're doing and your town then why are you voting for me?

[raerae]

NK analysis is absolutely important when shraeye is involved and it's clear his team killed glooble therefore glooble's kill tells us something about shraeye's team. I mean, do you think I'm making that up or just straight wrong?

I think this is where we should focus for now. Glooble seemed to be off the MiX wagon entirely and against the faust votes. This is either some mad misdirection or these are probably not on shraeye's team.
Glooble seemed moderately critical of UoS but not enough that I would think it would paint a target on his back.

Are you kidding?? Do you think I made up those post numbers?

@chicken, care to respond?

[Chickenwarlord]

What I am seeing in the reasoning targeting me is all fairly logical for Day 2. Just keep in mind that almost all of this applies to raerae except for leaving the MiX wagon.
When I flip town after yall lynch me, I want you to remember that.
Vote: RaeRae

But if I'm doing everything you're doing and your town then why are you voting for me?

I am saying that it is a good argument and that I should probably be lynched for it - but to keep in mind that almost everything in that argument applies to you as well.

@chicken, care to respond?

Since you seem so strongly that I am in the wrong here, I should probably go back and reread Glooble. The crux of what you're implying is that he wasn't off the MiX train on day 2?

[Chickenwarlord]

@chicken, care to respond?

Alright, after doing a reread of JUST Glooble posts and not sifting through literally everything while at work - it is very clear I was wrong. Glooble was definitely still on the MiX wagon. I guess that does warrant some pause and time for reflection on my part.
Unvote

[faust]

Request prod on UoS

[raerae]

One other point on MiX is his acceptance of the case on him. He's fought every other case tooth and nail until this one. It's out of character for him.

[Uncleeurope]

That is probably because it isn’t a case. That is, if we are referring to him “lying” about him searching for a quote.

I think it is perfectly acceptable to have been doing a reread, found a post that didn’t match up and then try to assign it to some other post. Him saying he looked for an answer is true, he just didn’t do a full reread of that section. That’s how I see it anyway.

I honestly don’t see the significance of it.

Or are you referring to a different case?

[raerae]

That is probably because it isn’t a case. That is, if we are referring to him “lying” about him searching for a quote.

I think it is perfectly acceptable to have been doing a reread, found a post that didn’t match up and then try to assign it to some other post. Him saying he looked for an answer is true, he just didn’t do a full reread of that section. That’s how I see it anyway.

I honestly don’t see the significance of it.

Or are you referring to a different case?

My whole him and glooble thing. He did blow his stack about lying, he hasn't about the connection to glooble.

[MiX]

That is probably because it isn’t a case. That is, if we are referring to him “lying” about him searching for a quote.

I think it is perfectly acceptable to have been doing a reread, found a post that didn’t match up and then try to assign it to some other post. Him saying he looked for an answer is true, he just didn’t do a full reread of that section. That’s how I see it anyway.

I honestly don’t see the significance of it.

Or are you referring to a different case?

My whole him and glooble thing. He did blow his stack about lying, he hasn't about the connection to glooble.

I told Uncle it was a good case, it's correct, Glooble was, indeed, scumreading me. There's one thing we're missing but it only matters for my defence. Not sure if I should mention it, lemme reread your D3 to see if you talk about it.

[MiX]

Okay, so you never mention it. Read #1545 and the faust quote in it if you want to get an ides of what I'm thinking. I think this leads me to

Vote: raerae, although I do apologize for not doing a full reread on her yet, I did do one on EFHW and I see a bunch of towny traits, so I don't really want to go there.

[raerae]

Okay, so you never mention it. Read #1545 and the faust quote in it if you want to get an ides of what I'm thinking. I think this leads me to

Vote: raerae, although I do apologize for not doing a full reread on her yet, I did do one on EFHW and I see a bunch of towny traits, so I don't really want to go there.

Faust says you don't look like partners and shraeye pushed your lunch? I'm not sure what bearing that has here. It's exactly what I said (shraeye not noticeably tying himself to his partners) and what faust said (he'll push a partners lunch).

[jotheonah]

Request prod on UoS

Prod sent. Vote count this evening.

[MiX]

Okay, so you never mention it. Read #1545 and the faust quote in it if you want to get an ides of what I'm thinking. I think this leads me to

Vote: raerae, although I do apologize for not doing a full reread on her yet, I did do one on EFHW and I see a bunch of towny traits, so I don't really want to go there.

Faust says you don't look like partners and shraeye pushed your lunch? I'm not sure what bearing that has here. It's exactly what I said (shraeye not noticeably tying himself to his partners) and what faust said (he'll push a partners lunch).

Okay, I'll elaborate. The crux on your case against me is Glooble scumreading me and, thus, I wanted to NK them, correct? Well, let's look at something no one seemed to care about: why did shraeye die? There's barely any way the other scumteam knew shraeye was scum (they would have to had copped him N1), so let's assume they did a shot in the dark. Since they don't even know if there's multiball, the odds were highly in favor for shraeye flipping town. So, surely, that scumteam planned their N2 NK as if shraeye flipped town (since if he somehow flipped scum, it would be even better, as it would give them less pressure for next day while town hunts for shraeye's partners D3), which means, for all intents and purposes, shraeye was town for non-Maquis scumteam. So the question becomes: why kill him? And the most obvious answer is simple: he was towny. However, if you believe your case on me, surely you can arrive at another conclusion: that I killed shraeye because he was scumreading me; you said this about Glooble, after all. So now look at both Glooble and shraeye's flips together: both kills suggest I killed them. However, it is impossible I NKd both. Thus, we arrive at a very important conclusion: at least one of the scumteams killed Glooble/shraeye to push for my mislynch (and from my perspective both).

Now, this conclusion's important for my defense, but it also says something else: if you believe I killed Glooble because he was scumreading me, you must absolutely believe I killed shraeye because he was scumreading me. But you don't, you haven't made this argument at all. What this leads me to believe...is that you're the one who killed Glooble. Since you were prepared for Glooble's flip (since he's your NK), you already had the narrative for "MiX is scum because Glooble was onto him"...but the shraeye flip threw you off. Since you KNEW shraeye was Maquis, it never entered your mind that the other scumteam does not, and thus his flip's the same as a town flip for NK analysis. This, of course, happened because you're Maquis (and thus knew what shraeye was and knew Glooble would flip beforehand). Therefore, you're scum.

Questions? Clarifications? This smells like a perfect case, but I doubt it. I'll need to reread raerae in full detail later, but I think this is much more than what I have on anyone else.

[SpaceAnemone]

@MiX, you're aware that a lot of people have been scumreading you, and yet now you say that people are trying to frame you for NKs. Do you really honestly believe that?

Why would a scumteam need to waste their NK, which they can use to kill people who're scumreading them, or to kill players they know are strong late in the game, in order to frame you? You have no track record here, your cases so far have been utterly unconvincing, and you've been caught lying to the thread and then trying to pretend it didn't actually happen.

Why frame you, instead of framing vets like faust and Ash? And why not just let the people who scumread you life so that they'll push for your alleged mislynch on scum's behalf?

[SpaceAnemone]

Space Count up to and including #1610:

faust (1): UmbrageOfSnow
2.71828..... (2): faust, Uncleeurope
UmbrageOfSnow (1): EFHW
Chickenwarlord (3): DatSwan, 2.71828....., WestCoastDidds
MiX (1): raerae
raerae (1): MiX
Not Voting (3): SpaceAnemone, ashersky, Chickenwarlord

[SpaceAnemone]

I got sidelined by an high allergy count and subsequent sinus infection this week and the medicine makes me foggy.

Aw, sympathies from the land of fuzzy braining!

[MiX]

@MiX, you're aware that a lot of people have been scumreading you, and yet now you say that people are trying to frame you for NKs. Do you really honestly believe that?

Why would a scumteam need to waste their NK, which they can use to kill people who're scumreading them, or to kill players they know are strong late in the game, in order to frame you? You have no track record here, your cases so far have been utterly unconvincing, and you've been caught lying to the thread and then trying to pretend it didn't actually happen.

Why frame you, instead of framing vets like faust and Ash? And why not just let the people who scumread you life so that they'll push for your alleged mislynch on scum's behalf?

Well, you do have to acknowledge both people that flipped scumread me. And at least raerae's scumreading me based on one of those flips. I might be overplaying NK analysis but you have to admit it's easy to make a case on me based on it. My case on raerae is based on how she only looked at one flip to scumread me when she should've used both, which I believe comes from a Maquis point of view.

Your entire argument stands on your thinking that I killed one of them, which I know to be false. I KNOW the scumteams wasted their NKs killing people that were scumreading me. I KNOW the scumteams didn't frame anyone else, because who else is implicated by the flips? I guess Glooble was scumreading UoS although I didn't find anything significant given that I don't remember that part, but who else then?

If they were scared of faust or Ash enough to frame them, they could NK them instead. However, I'm an easy lynch, given I was a big wagon D2, so scum would rather create more suspicion around me. And you can't argue that the scumteams didn't want to frame faust nor ash, as they did not. We know the flips. And those don't implicate faust or ash.

Spinning my wheels here, TL;DR we know who flipped and who's being scumread because of the flips, so that's all we can deduce from scum's intentions.


This is confusing. Not sure how else to explain myself, whoever. Who else do you think the flips implicate?

[raerae]

Nope. Shraeye's team killed glooble for a reason, he didn't crumb, he wasn't obvtown, it was either a complete shot in the dark (which I know shraeye would never agree to), or it was to protect the team. I would just as happily have voted for anybody else had glooble pointed to them as much as he pointed to you. I'm not looking for who performed the night kills and then making up why they did it. I'm using what we know (shraeye's team killed glooble), what I know (how shraeye thinks), and figuring out what those facts point to (you are on shraeye's team). Shraeye's flip gives us extra information we don't normally have (knowing who had a part in the kill) and we have to use that knowledge.

[Uncleeurope]

Okay, raerae, who would you vote for after MiX?

[SpaceAnemone]

Can someone explain to me why the new default assumption is that there is no SK?

Setup is rolled in a way such that only 33% of games that have the Maquis faction also have an SK. So 2 scum teams is the most likely thing. But you're right, it shouldn't matter all that much, the best thing we can do either way is figure out shraeye's partners.

However we kind of ignore the fact in those probabilities that no other scum has flipped so far (and scum would have been likely to flip in a game with 2  full factions). Assuming all kills were random from the potential pool, considering this factor changes probabilities as follows:

2 teams: 50.6%
team + SK: 49.4%

Which is to say... really we don't know anything.

I've tried to replicate this now! I got close enough that I suspect my method is the same as yours, but maybe we're just evaluating one part a little differently... can you let me know what you disagree with in my description below, pretty please? Thank you!

I'm using Seq as the observed sequence of kills, TT for Two full Teams, and SK for Maquis+SK.
P(TT|Seq) = P(Seq|TT)P(TT)/P(Seq) -- this is the probability we're after.
P(Seq) = P(Seq|TT)P(TT) + P(Seq|SK)P(SK)
P(TT) = 2/3
P(SK) = 1/3

Evaluating the conditional probabilities of Seq are presumably where differences will occur, so here's my expansion for P(Seq|SK):
D1: (14/18) -- 14 towns in 18 players.
N1: (13/14)*(13/16)-13/(14*16) -- 13 town, 14 non-Maquis players, 16 non-SK players. They have a 13/(14*16) chance of hitting the same town, which didn't happen, so that gets subtracted.
D2: (11/15) -- 11 towns in 15 players.
N2: (10/11)*(3/13) -- SK shot one of the three Maquis in 13 non-SK players; Maquis shot one of 10 towns in 11 non-Maquis players.

Doing a similar thing for P(Seq|TT), then evaluating P(TT|Seq), I get a 51.7% chance of there being two teams in the game if we assume random kills.

Anyway, I do agree that we don't know much! I'm not even sure I have any intuition for how factoring in non-random kills would sway the numbers.

[Chickenwarlord]

Vote: MiX

I also think that the EHFW train has some merit at this point. Really hard to tell where to place a vote when everything looks shifty.

[jotheonah]

Vote Count 3.4
"Children of the Prophets, be not afraid in these dark times!" a robed preacher says from atop a soapbox on the Promenade, a small crowd of Bajorans around him. "The Prophets have not abandoned you. They have sent you a new Emissary! An Emissary who knows and loves your people! A symbol of peace and change!"

The robed figure pulls away his hood.

"Dukat, you are not the Emissary!" Kai Winn says. "Please stop doing that!"


Vote count:

faust (1): UmbrageOfSnow
2.71828..... (2): faust, UncleEurope
UmbrageOfSnow (1): EFHW
chickenwarlord (3): DatSwan, 2.71828....., WestCoastDidds
MiX (2): raerae, chickenwarlord
raerae (1): MiX

Not Voting (2): ashersky, SpaceAnemone

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch most players. Day 3 will end at 12 pm forum time/US ET (16:00 GMT) on Wednesday, March 20th .

[ashersky]

Hi.

So...I have crotchety old veteran disease right now and am not posting a lot to ensure I don’t say anything untoward.

I will say, NK analysis is great and all, but any one NK could have been affected by the bus drive, whether by town or scum. I personally think folks are not taking that into consideration, especially when using the NK(s) to determine possibilities, to “know” for sure what a scum team was trying to do/who they were “trying to frame”, etc.

I will also mention the amount of self-confidence in some players’ posts/arguments/defenses is misguided and off putting, unless they are scum. Which, okay, but it just makes me want to lynch you.

So I can’t separate who I think is scummy for real and who I think should be lynched for style. 

[SpaceAnemone]

Well, you do have to acknowledge both people that flipped scumread me.

Ten people in this game have voted for you. The chance of any given player who flips having scumread you at some point is really high. I think we should at least consider the chance that it's just a coincidence that the people who scum killed were some of the 10 who'd scumread you.

Here's a list of all the alive players, and all the other players who've vote for them at least once so far in the game, in case it's interesting for everyone else:

DatSwan: 2 (MiX, 2.71828.....)
WestCoastDidds: 2 (MiX, Uncleeurope)
UmbrageOfSnow: 3 (EFHW, ashersky, Uncleeurope)
SpaceAnemone: 3 (MiX, faust, Uncleeurope)
ashersky: 3 (Shraeye, Awaclus, raerae)
raerae: 6 (mcmcsalot, MiX, faust, ashersky, Uncleeurope, raerae)
2.71828.....: 7 (EFHW, mcmcsalot, WestCoastDidds, faust, Robz888, Awaclus, Uncleeurope)
Uncleeurope: 7 (DatSwan, mcmcsalot, WestCoastDidds, SpaceAnemone, MiX, faust, 2.71828.....)
Chickenwarlord: 7 (DatSwan, WestCoastDidds, MiX, ashersky, 2.71828....., Robz888, Uncleeurope)
EFHW: 8 (UmbrageOfSnow, Glooble, WestCoastDidds, Shraeye, MiX, 2.71828....., Robz888, Uncleeurope)
faust: 8 (UmbrageOfSnow, DatSwan, MiX, ashersky, 2.71828....., Awaclus, Uncleeurope, raerae)
MiX: 10 (UmbrageOfSnow, Glooble, WestCoastDidds, SpaceAnemone, Shraeye, ashersky, Awaclus, Uncleeurope, raerae, Chickenwarlord)