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[ashersky]

No kill would be helpful to town. There's a chance that we don't have a psychologist, but a detective, and town can't protect against BOTH possibilities. I'd be moreee than happy to do 10 no-lynches followed by 10 no-kills, if that's what scum wants to do. But they won't.

Who knows how scum kills are distributed, they will either after tonight have 1 scum who's killed (to guard against detective) or 2 scum who have killed ( to guard against psychologist). but no matter what, there's a greater than 0% chance we gain info with a no lynch / no kill, which means scum no killing would help us. At worst, it does nothing, at best, PR catches scum. So there's no downside there.

Now, there's a possibility that scum kills the PR, which would suck. But I think personally it's worth that risk (only 1/6 odds, maybe better depending on scum's reads)

Thanks.  I specifically put that post out there to try to get scum to no kill by giving some logic behind why it was better for them to no kill than to kill.  Both you and Jimmmmm made sure to tell scum that they have to kill.

Of course it's in town's interest to have a no kill.  The idea was to convince scum of the opposite, or at least seed enough doubt that it might have affected their judgement.  We've had no kill nights before in other games.

[Twistedarcher]

It's 5 to lynch, right?

No Lynch is at L-2.

Yup. we should absolutely not vote no-lynch through, if that's what we're doing, until we've gotten a chance to hear from everyone today.

[ashersky]

It's 5 to lynch, right?

No Lynch is at L-2.

Yup. we should absolutely not vote no-lynch through, if that's what we're doing, until we've gotten a chance to hear from everyone today.

Who's left that hasn't posted?  Just mcmc?

[Twistedarcher]

No kill would be helpful to town. There's a chance that we don't have a psychologist, but a detective, and town can't protect against BOTH possibilities. I'd be moreee than happy to do 10 no-lynches followed by 10 no-kills, if that's what scum wants to do. But they won't.

Who knows how scum kills are distributed, they will either after tonight have 1 scum who's killed (to guard against detective) or 2 scum who have killed ( to guard against psychologist). but no matter what, there's a greater than 0% chance we gain info with a no lynch / no kill, which means scum no killing would help us. At worst, it does nothing, at best, PR catches scum. So there's no downside there.

Now, there's a possibility that scum kills the PR, which would suck. But I think personally it's worth that risk (only 1/6 odds, maybe better depending on scum's reads)

Thanks.  I specifically put that post out there to try to get scum to no kill by giving some logic behind why it was better for them to no kill than to kill.  Both you and Jimmmmm made sure to tell scum that they have to kill.

Of course it's in town's interest to have a no kill.  The idea was to convince scum of the opposite, or at least seed enough doubt that it might have affected their judgement.  We've had no kill nights before in other games.

I give our scum more credit than you do apparently. Of course they know they have to kill, everyone in this game is pretty dang smart, they would have obviously figured this out.

[Twistedarcher]

It's 5 to lynch, right?

No Lynch is at L-2.

Yup. we should absolutely not vote no-lynch through, if that's what we're doing, until we've gotten a chance to hear from everyone today.

Who's left that hasn't posted?  Just mcmc?

Yeah, plus we havne't really heard much from Chairs either, and Lio said he was waiting to weigh in until you finished making your argument

[Jimmmmm]

Thanks.  I specifically put that post out there to try to get scum to no kill by giving some logic behind why it was better for them to no kill than to kill.  Both you and Jimmmmm made sure to tell scum that they have to kill.

I see no reason to try to hide things that will be extremely obvious to scum and not necessarily as obvious to Townies.

[Twistedarcher]

I will be super frustrated if UoS went the other way and really hid behind Shraeye.

This was TA's last post of D2, for what that's worth.  It sounds like he's frustrated to lose a partner, and especially so if it was dumb luck and NOT actually the plan that caught him.

I'm really not qualified to say if hider as a role is overpowered or not, but it seems pretty clear to me that all the guys who spent all those posts and all that time perfecting a plan for us helped us lynch scum without any discussion day 2. I would say those who tried to shut down such discussion day 1 should really reconsider their stance (and quite frankly their attitude), as lynching scum day 2 without outing any power roles is pretty damn awesome, yeah!

Last post of D2.  Eevee is thanking folks for ensuring there was no meaningful discussion on D2.  Only scum would want that, right?

Separate the successful lynch from the rest of what happened on D2.  It was a waste of a day, and all it really ended up being was an extremely long night with 2 town deaths that sandwiched a scum death.  We're days further from D1 and no closer to catching the third scum member after TA's dead.

Bringing up these two quotes reminds me of Dsell from D2 of ZM14, when he was the impending lynch. Basically, he kept bringing up posts that weren't really scummy at all, trying to paint them in a scummy light hoping that someone, anyone would latch on to it. He kept bringing up posts from earlier, that were completely unrelated to alignment (one example is that he brought up a post of me congratulating the ICs. This reads similarly to me saying "I hope UoS didn't screw up!"), and trying to paint them scummy.

Bringing these up to try to paint Eevee and I as scummy is pretty darn weak, Ash is really reaching here. Those are posts that could absolutely be made by either scum or town, and Ash is trying to paint them as scummy.

[chairs]

Hrm.  So no-lynch gives us (basically) one more VT to protect our PR, assuming the PR isn't just a named VT at this point, right?

Downside being that if we could lynch Mafia we'd be down to 1 Mafia member left, whereas if we don't lynch we leave both of them up (but protect ourselves from a VT or PR mislynch).

We haven't seen the psychtective flip, and so far there's been no obvious breadcrumb for it, so I'm tentatively in favor of the no-lynch day.

[ashersky]

Those are posts that could absolutely be made by either scum or town, and Ash is trying to paint them as scummy.

Every post of every game could be made by either scum or town.  I am pointing out ones I think were made by scum.  It seems useless to point out ones that look like they were made by town, unless that townie was an impending lynch.

Look, if you are so so so so sure I'm scum, why aren't you voting for me?  Why opt for No Lynch when you have scum caught dead to rights, according to you?  You keep saying I'm scummy, that my reasons are weak, but you aren't pushing for my lynch, and are instead going along with town.  Safe play, scum.

I'd rather you go out on your limb and get my mislynch through.  That's the better trade off for you, if you are scum.  You'd rather mislynch me today, get your kill today, then die tomorrow, TA.  And you know that we know that, so you are voting no lynch instead.  Nice WIFOM, man.

[ashersky]

Hrm.  So no-lynch gives us (basically) one more VT to protect our PR, assuming the PR isn't just a named VT at this point, right?

Downside being that if we could lynch Mafia we'd be down to 1 Mafia member left, whereas if we don't lynch we leave both of them up (but protect ourselves from a VT or PR mislynch).

We haven't seen the psychtective flip, and so far there's been no obvious breadcrumb for it, so I'm tentatively in favor of the no-lynch day.

Chairs, there are no protective roles in this game.  Unless you mean "one more VT in the pool of townies from which scum must select the NK."  Than maybe.

Here's the thing, and Jimmmmm has pointed this out as well.  No way scum NKs me.  No way at all.  No way scum NKs TA, because TA is scum, and NKing your own team is stupid.  (Again, if you believe TA and not me, just flip the names, the situation is the same.)

So, really, what's the situation?  8 alive, 2 scum, 1 PR.  Of the 6 townies, only 5 are valid kill targets, removing myself (or TA).  So a 20% chance to kill the PR, unless I'm the PR, which would be awesome.  If, for some cosmic irony reason, TA is also town, no way they kill either of us, giving them a pool of 4 targets, or 25% chance to hit the PR, unless one of us is the PR, which again, would be awesome.

Mislynch a VT that is not me and those numbers reduce.  I get that.  But I'm not arguing that we mislynch a townie that is not me.  I'm arguing that we lynch TA, who is scum.

[ashersky]

In addition to that, assume I'm NOT the PR for a second, and then mislynch me.

Scum!TA or unfortunatelywayoffbaseTA doesn't die at night, so it's still 1/4 chance to hit the PR, the same as no lynching with both of us being town.  (Again, flip the names if you are on TA's side.)

I still see no harm in lynching scum again today, or at worst mislynching me, if I'm not the PR.

[raerae]

Hi folks, I see a lot of pages have happened since I went to sleep last night.  I start a new job today so daytime posting will drop dramatically going forward.  Can we please all keep our pants on for a little bit longer and not decide on a lynch or no lynch right now this very moment?  If we no lynch right now we have another worthless day because D2 had no meaningful conversation and today has just been ash/TA back and forth with a bit of Jimmmmmm and Eevee thrown in for flavor.  Chairs, lio, mcmc, and myself have been a bit absent.  At the very least, let's let mcmc make more than one post today, shall we? 

[Jimmmmm]

Hi folks, I see a lot of pages have happened since I went to sleep last night.  I start a new job today so daytime posting will drop dramatically going forward.  Can we please all keep our pants on for a little bit longer and not decide on a lynch or no lynch right now this very moment?  If we no lynch right now we have another worthless day because D2 had no meaningful conversation and today has just been ash/TA back and forth with a bit of Jimmmmmm and Eevee thrown in for flavor.  Chairs, lio, mcmc, and myself have been a bit absent.  At the very least, let's let mcmc make more than one post today, shall we?

You keep your pants on. No one's suggesting we end the Day here and now. I know my preference is to no-lynch, sure, but I definitely don't think anyone should hammer that or anything else before we've had some suitable level of discussion from everyone.

[yuma]

Vote Count 3.4

As soon the door was shut behind the missionary all the guests began to whisper.

"What should we do? If he finds out there are six dead bodies in the house he will call the cops!" whispered Mrs. White.

"Six dead bodies? I thought there were five," said Col. Mustard.

"No there were five. One in the bedroom, two at the chandelier, and one at the bathroom, one on the stairs," she replied.

"That's not six."

"One plus one plus two plus one."

"Uh-uh, there were two in the bedroom. That's one plus two plus one plus one.

"Even if you were right, that would be one plus one plus two plus one, not one plus *two* plus one plus one."

"Shut up!"

No lynch: (3) liopoil, Jimmmmmm, TA (L-2)
TA: (1) ashersky

Not voting: (4) raerae, mcmcsalot, chairs, Eevee

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline for Day3 is August 6 at 2 pm forum time.

[chairs]

Hrm.  So no-lynch gives us (basically) one more VT to protect our PR, assuming the PR isn't just a named VT at this point, right?

Downside being that if we could lynch Mafia we'd be down to 1 Mafia member left, whereas if we don't lynch we leave both of them up (but protect ourselves from a VT or PR mislynch).

We haven't seen the psychtective flip, and so far there's been no obvious breadcrumb for it, so I'm tentatively in favor of the no-lynch day.

Chairs, there are no protective roles in this game.  Unless you mean "one more VT in the pool of townies from which scum must select the NK."  Than maybe.

Here's the thing, and Jimmmmm has pointed this out as well.  No way scum NKs me.  No way at all.  No way scum NKs TA, because TA is scum, and NKing your own team is stupid.  (Again, if you believe TA and not me, just flip the names, the situation is the same.)

So, really, what's the situation?  8 alive, 2 scum, 1 PR.  Of the 6 townies, only 5 are valid kill targets, removing myself (or TA).  So a 20% chance to kill the PR, unless I'm the PR, which would be awesome.  If, for some cosmic irony reason, TA is also town, no way they kill either of us, giving them a pool of 4 targets, or 25% chance to hit the PR, unless one of us is the PR, which again, would be awesome.

Mislynch a VT that is not me and those numbers reduce.  I get that.  But I'm not arguing that we mislynch a townie that is not me.  I'm arguing that we lynch TA, who is scum.

let's say for giggles that we have a detective and we no-lynch and he's able to clear at least one of you tonight.  Then we avoid a mislynch, the NK wipes out a townie, and we're left with one more townie tomorrow to push a better lynch option through.

And yes, I think you understood my statement eventually - the VT is a protective role, insofar as a VT is one more potential non-PR target for the NK.

[Twistedarcher]

Those are posts that could absolutely be made by either scum or town, and Ash is trying to paint them as scummy.

Every post of every game could be made by either scum or town.  I am pointing out ones I think were made by scum.  It seems useless to point out ones that look like they were made by town, unless that townie was an impending lynch.

Look, if you are so so so so sure I'm scum, why aren't you voting for me?  Why opt for No Lynch when you have scum caught dead to rights, according to you?  You keep saying I'm scummy, that my reasons are weak, but you aren't pushing for my lynch, and are instead going along with town.  Safe play, scum.

I'd rather you go out on your limb and get my mislynch through.  That's the better trade off for you, if you are scum.  You'd rather mislynch me today, get your kill today, then die tomorrow, TA.  And you know that we know that, so you are voting no lynch instead.  Nice WIFOM, man.

Your last paragraph is putting me in a damned-if-i-do, damned-if-i-don't situation. You're calling me scummy for doing what a towny would do, since that's what I would try to do as scum. Yet it's also what I'd try to do as town!

I want a no-lynch today because
1) I'm not 100% positive sure on your lynch. Only like 95% sure. That 5%, though, is enough for waiting another night. There's very little downside to no-lynching today.

2) There's the chance that the PR could investigate one of us and get a result which helps narrow down the lynch.

3) If there's a psychologist, one more night with 2 scum alive, rather than 1 scum alive, gives them a better chance to find scum. There's a chance that the role could have utility for one more night, which it wouldn't have if we lynched scum today.

I agree that lynching scum is good, but if we're going to lynch TA/Ash, then I see only benefits from waiting until tomorrow to do it.

[Twistedarcher]

The fact that Ashersky has responded to my case by saying that I'm 100% positively scum is so weird to me. I know he's not a PR with a result, so the certainty he's showing as to me being scum is really odd.

Let's say he actually is town, and I'm mistaken here. Throwing it into a "Me or TA" situation has made it so regardless, we lynch a town member. We would also get much less information than we would otherwise by tunneling in on two possible lynches.

Now, let's say he's scum. Throwing it into a "Me or TA" situation means that Ash will get lynched in one of the next two lynches. Of course, if I flip town before he gets lynched, he would try to avoid that situation, but I doubt he'd have much luck avoiding the lynch. What it also does, though, is two things that are good for scum. First, it means that we don't do any work on finding out who the third scum member is. Ashersky and TA gets all the attention, and no other wagons start. Second, it draws the investigation tonight, if we no-lynch. Once again, we're no closer to finding the third scum.

Given that Ashersky was going to be taking heat from my case, and that Eevee agreed and possibly others were going to agree with it, there wasn't really any way for him to avoid suspicion today. So turning into into a "me or him" situation is beneficial, as it doesn't draw anymore attention but it allows him to keep any suspicion from getting anywhere today. For someone who is complaining that we don't have a D2 to analyze, turning D3 into a situation where all the analysis will focus mostly on two people is a weird move, and one that benefits scum.

[chairs]

The fact that Ashersky has responded to my case by saying that I'm 100% positively scum is so weird to me. I know he's not a PR with a result, so the certainty he's showing as to me being scum is really odd.

Let's say he actually is town, and I'm mistaken here. Throwing it into a "Me or TA" situation has made it so regardless, we lynch a town member. We would also get much less information than we would otherwise by tunneling in on two possible lynches.

Now, let's say he's scum. Throwing it into a "Me or TA" situation means that Ash will get lynched in one of the next two lynches. Of course, if I flip town before he gets lynched, he would try to avoid that situation, but I doubt he'd have much luck avoiding the lynch. What it also does, though, is two things that are good for scum. First, it means that we don't do any work on finding out who the third scum member is. Ashersky and TA gets all the attention, and no other wagons start. Second, it draws the investigation tonight, if we no-lynch. Once again, we're no closer to finding the third scum.

Given that Ashersky was going to be taking heat from my case, and that Eevee agreed and possibly others were going to agree with it, there wasn't really any way for him to avoid suspicion today. So turning into into a "me or him" situation is beneficial, as it doesn't draw anymore attention but it allows him to keep any suspicion from getting anywhere today. For someone who is complaining that we don't have a D2 to analyze, turning D3 into a situation where all the analysis will focus mostly on two people is a weird move, and one that benefits scum.

Probably a dumb question here, but how do you know he's not a PR with a result?

[Twistedarcher]

Because I'm town!

[chairs]

Because I'm town!

That's exactly what Town would say!

Also exactly what Scum would say!

 

For kicks, let's assume you guys are town-on-town for the moment.  Who else could we review as potential scum? (I'd like both of you to answer).

[Twistedarcher]

I think that you're probably town, and I think that Eevee is probably town. If Ash is also town, that leaves two scum in Mcmc/Jimmm/Raerae/Liopoil. I think that there was almost certainly at least 1 scum on Voltaire's bandwagon, so I'd look in Mcmc/Jimmm for a scum. Wouldn't surprise me if one of Raerae/Liopoil was scum, as well.

[ashersky]

TA is scum = I am pretty sure Eevee is supporting/protecting his partner.  Mcmc and Jimmmmm are possibles.

TA not scum = lessens suspicion on Eevee, of course, so mcmc > Jimmmmm > Eevee.

[ashersky]

I think that you're probably town, and I think that Eevee is probably town. If Ash is also town, that leaves two scum in Mcmc/Jimmm/Raerae/Liopoil. I think that there was almost certainly at least 1 scum on Voltaire's bandwagon, so I'd look in Mcmc/Jimmm for a scum. Wouldn't surprise me if one of Raerae/Liopoil was scum, as well.

Hedge much?  Basically everyone but you, Eevee, and chairs are scum.

[liopoil]

oh man. if TA and ash are both town we are in deep deep trouble.

and ugh, I don't know which is more likely to be scum. Yep, super-hedgy. I had a townread on ash for the D1 shenanigans... but ash is just too certain of TA being scum. And I remember that shraeye suspected TA... anyway, I am very much a swing voter.

ash, why do you think that both scum have killed? I'd say it's more likely that only one has, because perhaps nkirbit did the kill N1, and by having both scum do the kill they turn the detective into a full cop...

TA is scum = I am pretty sure Eevee is supporting/protecting his partner.  Mcmc and Jimmmmm are possibles.

TA not scum = lessens suspicion on Eevee, of course, so mcmc > Jimmmmm > Eevee.

...what about people who aren't eevee, jimmmm, or mcmc?

[ashersky]

Town reads enough for me nt to list them.