Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 34 35 [36] 37 38 ... 82  All

Author Topic: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Mafia Wins  (Read 186564 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #875 on: July 21, 2013, 09:40:56 pm »

re ashersky: Lynching chairs just because he claimed VT is terrible. But in the possible scenerario that volt and chairs are both town and we're gonna lynch one of them, chairs is the mislynch that hurts less. that's just something to take into account.
wait wait wait; why do you discount that Voltaire is also VT?????????

I go back to my argument, where I think liopoil (and probably others) feel that losing VT chairs is more acceptable than losing VT Volt.  Clearly losing VT chairs is better than PR Volt.  But that's true regardless of who we're talking about.

I just don't see that as the actual situation.

I think we're looking at losing VT chairs in lieu of possibly-mafia Volt.  And that makes no sense to me.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

nkirbit

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #876 on: July 21, 2013, 09:43:53 pm »

I strongly disagree with Lio on the VT issue.  Lynching mafia is our highest priority, by a good deal.  If we, as a group, think that Volt is likelier to flip scum than Chairs, then we shouldn't lynch Chairs.  Regardless of who has claimed and who hasn't claimed.
Logged

shraeye

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 690
  • Shuffle iT Username: shraeye
  • More Graph Theory please
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #877 on: July 21, 2013, 09:45:32 pm »

Shraeye:  You told TA to blow up Innovation with posts as scum, specifically because it's anti-town.  Sure, scum!TA could have an incentive to act differently, and post less.  I'll buy that.  But town!TA has that same incentive, simply because he doesn't want to do something that's anti-town!

I think both scum!TA and town!TA would have an incentive to post less, and have no reason to believe it's one or the other.  I don't know why you're convinced it's TA being scum, when he has incentives to post less as a town player.
At the time that I had pointed it out, Twisted was almost at the lowest end of the votecount, near me and chairs and other low-posters.  That is a HUUUGE switch from somebody who in Innovation had at least 3x as many posts as almost every player (for eevee it was  just under 3times, and for ashersky it's more like 2x)

Yeah, I know it's a huge change.  But I'm saying that both town and scum TA would have an incentive to make such a huge change... do you disagree with that?
I do disagree; I think townTwisted makes a less drastic change.  His scumhunting style (which is part of what constitutes a player's overall meta, since scum are trying to mimic their townselves) involved a lot of posts and back/forth with eachother.  Since townTwisted has such a high correct lynch percentage (at 80% now) I think townTwisted would not be so willing to completely abandon his style, and instead would see if more minor changes would help.
Logged

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #878 on: July 21, 2013, 09:47:07 pm »

I strongly disagree with Lio on the VT issue.  Lynching mafia is our highest priority, by a good deal.  If we, as a group, think that Volt is likelier to flip scum than Chairs, then we shouldn't lynch Chairs.  Regardless of who has claimed and who hasn't claimed.

I just play the game assuming everyone is a claimed VT until they otherwise say so.  You know what I mean?  So the game starts, and everyone is a "claimed VT" from Post 1.  Then, my opinion changes as the game goes on, whether due to breadcrumbs, response to plans and claims, actual claims, etc.  At worst, VT is the go to mafia fakeclaim, right?  No one is going to say they are mafia.  So "he claimed VT" means very little to me.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

raerae

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 96
  • Shuffle iT Username: raerae
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #879 on: July 21, 2013, 09:47:19 pm »

shraeye, this is what I have, or had, I guess as this was posted 5 days ago

Chairs reread:

His first seven posts were spent either agreeing with or reiterating/clarifying plans then we have an RVS vote for Robz.  Not a whole lot here, both reads and content-wise which gives me a bit of a shady feel but nothing solid.

Advocates Ash's lynch twice (286 & 291...sorry, don't have the mental capacity to link that shit right now) but 291 is the one that especially rubs me wrong for the bolded part below.  I don't know if it's just me or what but this sort of statement always screams scummy to me.  It suggests a willingness to vote for whoever comes up but doesn't actually offer to do any of the work.  It feels like, 'Hey, I pointed this out but if you guys want to point out something else, I'll probably go with that too." 

But honestly, I just haven't had a whole bunch to say, especially since we wanted to shut down the theory talk (which is the part of mafia that truly excites me, D1).  I could blather indiscriminately about irrelevant things, but I don't really have much to contribute to the hunt per se, except that I think offering yourself up for a lynch is dumb and I think ashersky's worth lynching if a better option doesn't come up.

Continues to push the damn hider plan.  I know this is a personal difference between our play and he doesn't understand/agree that it's terrible for town but...ugh, stop talking about it!!

Reads promised on July 14 - reads delivered July 15 (light argument for Ash's lynch again), details presented in the same format at UoS' highly praised "reads" post.

#352 - Again, let's lynch Ash!

#370 - Finally votes for Ash once his wagon has been sufficiently built up.

This, and maybe it's just because I'm sufficiently irked at his insistence of the Ash lynch and theory talky talk, sounds more annoyed than curious.  Like he knows Ash is town and is annoyed at his scum friends for not hammering?  I'm not putting a lot of stock in this as I'm feeling a bit tunnely at the moment but it's still bothersome enough to point out.

I think it might be interesting to see what has happened as the wagon on you has slowly worked itself down - perhaps scum (assuming you're town) is now kicking themselves for not hammering when opportunity permitted.

#507 & 512 - These sound like a forced overreaction to me.  Like feigning anger at his fake reads been called on the carpet even though they were only lightly questioned.

#513 - (Again) Hey, let's lynch Ash!

I want to reread lio & volt too but feel confident my vote will set on one of those guys today.  In light of that, unvote, until a decision has been made.
Logged

liopoil

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2587
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #880 on: July 21, 2013, 09:47:46 pm »

Woah woah woah. of course lynching scum is our top priority. but voltaire is a potential PR and chairs isn't, and that matters a tiny bit. I am voting chairs because I think he is more likely scum than voltaire. losing VT chairs is not better than losing VT volt, the two are equivalent.
Logged

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #881 on: July 21, 2013, 09:48:43 pm »

Is TA so far off on his post counts?

I feel like the comparison to the rest of the field metric is the best one, but I feel like in the games you are referencing, I was dead after D1 (so that throws things off) and Eevee has just been chronically underposting.

He's definitely been posting often now.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

Twistedarcher

  • Witch
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #882 on: July 21, 2013, 09:49:52 pm »

Is TA so far off on his post counts?

I feel like the comparison to the rest of the field metric is the best one, but I feel like in the games you are referencing, I was dead after D1 (so that throws things off) and Eevee has just been chronically underposting.

He's definitely been posting often now.

I have posted drastically less this D1 than any other day I've been alive, so yes, Shraeye's observation is completely correct.

Logged

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #883 on: July 21, 2013, 09:50:45 pm »

In reference to raerae's chairs case, I think the scumslip portion has some merit.  Literally no one has discussed it.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

Twistedarcher

  • Witch
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #884 on: July 21, 2013, 09:50:57 pm »

Shraeye:  You told TA to blow up Innovation with posts as scum, specifically because it's anti-town.  Sure, scum!TA could have an incentive to act differently, and post less.  I'll buy that.  But town!TA has that same incentive, simply because he doesn't want to do something that's anti-town!

I think both scum!TA and town!TA would have an incentive to post less, and have no reason to believe it's one or the other.  I don't know why you're convinced it's TA being scum, when he has incentives to post less as a town player.
At the time that I had pointed it out, Twisted was almost at the lowest end of the votecount, near me and chairs and other low-posters.  That is a HUUUGE switch from somebody who in Innovation had at least 3x as many posts as almost every player (for eevee it was  just under 3times, and for ashersky it's more like 2x)

Yeah, I know it's a huge change.  But I'm saying that both town and scum TA would have an incentive to make such a huge change... do you disagree with that?
I do disagree; I think townTwisted makes a less drastic change.  His scumhunting style (which is part of what constitutes a player's overall meta, since scum are trying to mimic their townselves) involved a lot of posts and back/forth with eachother.  Since townTwisted has such a high correct lynch percentage (at 80% now) I think townTwisted would not be so willing to completely abandon his style, and instead would see if more minor changes would help.

But, that's just like your opinion, man.
Logged

nkirbit

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #885 on: July 21, 2013, 09:51:15 pm »

Shraeye:  You told TA to blow up Innovation with posts as scum, specifically because it's anti-town.  Sure, scum!TA could have an incentive to act differently, and post less.  I'll buy that.  But town!TA has that same incentive, simply because he doesn't want to do something that's anti-town!

I think both scum!TA and town!TA would have an incentive to post less, and have no reason to believe it's one or the other.  I don't know why you're convinced it's TA being scum, when he has incentives to post less as a town player.
At the time that I had pointed it out, Twisted was almost at the lowest end of the votecount, near me and chairs and other low-posters.  That is a HUUUGE switch from somebody who in Innovation had at least 3x as many posts as almost every player (for eevee it was  just under 3times, and for ashersky it's more like 2x)

Yeah, I know it's a huge change.  But I'm saying that both town and scum TA would have an incentive to make such a huge change... do you disagree with that?
I do disagree; I think townTwisted makes a less drastic change.  His scumhunting style (which is part of what constitutes a player's overall meta, since scum are trying to mimic their townselves) involved a lot of posts and back/forth with eachother.  Since townTwisted has such a high correct lynch percentage (at 80% now) I think townTwisted would not be so willing to completely abandon his style, and instead would see if more minor changes would help.

Okay, that's fair enough.  It wasn't clear to me that this is what you were thinking earlier, but I can see where you're coming from.  I know he's had an interest in lowering his post count so he doesn't always feel obligated to be the most active player if he doesn't want to be in a game, so I don't agree with you that it's scummy, but I do see what you're saying.
Logged

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #886 on: July 21, 2013, 09:54:24 pm »

Okay, that's fair enough.  It wasn't clear to me that this is what you were thinking earlier, but I can see where you're coming from.  I know he's had an interest in lowering his post count so he doesn't always feel obligated to be the most active player if he doesn't want to be in a game, so I don't agree with you that it's scummy, but I do see what you're saying.

Although, I'm in this game, so he only has to be second most active.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

nkirbit

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #887 on: July 21, 2013, 09:57:24 pm »

In reference to raerae's chairs case, I think the scumslip portion has some merit.  Literally no one has discussed it.

What are you referring to, exactly?
Logged

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #888 on: July 21, 2013, 09:57:34 pm »

Post count (includes pre-game, cause whatever):

Robz - 47
raerae - 54
lio - 35
TA - 58
shraeye - 60
Eevee - 41
Voltaire - 104
UoS - 119
Jimmmmm - 33
nkirbit - 40
chairs - 43
mcmcsalot - 31
ashersky 151
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #889 on: July 21, 2013, 09:57:59 pm »

In reference to raerae's chairs case, I think the scumslip portion has some merit.  Literally no one has discussed it.

What are you referring to, exactly?

The message to his scumbuddies for not hammering me.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

Eevee

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1010
  • Shuffle iT Username: Eevee
  • A wild Eevee appears!
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #890 on: July 21, 2013, 10:11:19 pm »

I'm here.

Will this be a game of chicken as to who gives up first and switches sides?

I'm starting to feel like both wagons are semi-stalling because they are both town and scum is indifferent as to who gets lynched and doesn't want to get their hands dirty on a town lynch.

Not much we can do about that anymore though, is there?

Robz's late push on liopoil was interesting in this light.
Logged

Twistedarcher

  • Witch
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #891 on: July 21, 2013, 10:15:52 pm »

I'm here.

Will this be a game of chicken as to who gives up first and switches sides?

I'm starting to feel like both wagons are semi-stalling because they are both town and scum is indifferent as to who gets lynched and doesn't want to get their hands dirty on a town lynch.

Not much we can do about that anymore though, is there?

Robz's late push on liopoil was interesting in this light.

I get the same feeling.
Logged

raerae

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 96
  • Shuffle iT Username: raerae
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #892 on: July 21, 2013, 10:16:34 pm »

Deadline is at 10:30 tomorrow morning, right?
Logged

mail-mi

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1298
  • Shuffle iT Username: mail-mi
  • Come play some Forum Mafia with us!
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #893 on: July 21, 2013, 10:18:36 pm »

Deadline is at 10:30 tomorrow morning, right?
Yes.
Logged
I currently imagine mail-mi wearing a dark trenchcoat and a bowler hat, hunched over a bit, toothpick in his mouth, holding a gun in his pocket.  One bead of sweat trickling down his nose.

'And what is it that ye shall hope for? Behold I say unto you that ye shall have hope through the atonement of Christ and the power of his resurrection, to be raised unto life eternal, and this because of your faith in him according to the promise." - Moroni 7:41, the Book of Mormon

Robz888

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2644
  • Shuffle iT Username: Robz888
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #894 on: July 21, 2013, 10:18:59 pm »

My main reasons for finding Mcmc scummy are his vote/unvote on Ash at weird times, and his interaction with Robz. I really do think that Mcmc calling Robz towny for weak reasons make it more likely that Mcmc is scum, and Robz towny. It's an easy way to pick up towncred, and easily justifiable by the fact that he knows Robz better than the rest of us if he's questioned on it.

mcmc-Robz is always tough.  I never know what to think.  My gut tells me mcmc is usually right about Robz, regardless of his alignment, while Robz is usually wrong about mcmc, regardless of purpose.

Agreed.
Logged
I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Robz888

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2644
  • Shuffle iT Username: Robz888
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #895 on: July 21, 2013, 10:19:21 pm »

I would much rather hammer Volt than let chairs die. No one for liopoil?
Logged
I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Voltaire

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 957
  • flavor text
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #896 on: July 21, 2013, 10:27:41 pm »

Hey guys woah. I wasn't planning on reading the thread tonight but I saw 3-4 new pages and wanted to read in case there was a lynch or something. I don't have time to reply to everything right now but I will be online tomorrow morning before the deadline, but only starting about an hour beforehand. I know that sucks but I have to go to bed now. I'll try to get on earlier if I can.

We should lynch chairs. This nonsense that scum would claim a PR is insane. Scum will claim VT in this game - anything else is an insta-counterclaim and death.
Logged

Twistedarcher

  • Witch
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #897 on: July 21, 2013, 10:30:16 pm »

Hey guys woah. I wasn't planning on reading the thread tonight but I saw 3-4 new pages and wanted to read in case there was a lynch or something. I don't have time to reply to everything right now but I will be online tomorrow morning before the deadline, but only starting about an hour beforehand. I know that sucks but I have to go to bed now. I'll try to get on earlier if I can.

We should lynch chairs. This nonsense that scum would claim a PR is insane. Scum will claim VT in this game - anything else is an insta-counterclaim and death.

This is just untrue. If you're dying anyways, and you get a PR to claim, isn't that pretty awesome for scum?

I think, given the lack of protective roles in this game, there is MORE incentive to fakeclaim PR, not less incentive.
Logged

Twistedarcher

  • Witch
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 494
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #898 on: July 21, 2013, 10:31:56 pm »

I would much rather hammer Volt than let chairs die. No one for liopoil?

I don't think it's feasible at this point. Personally I haven't found anything Lio's done as scummy.
Logged

nkirbit

  • Conspirator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 238
    • View Profile
Re: MXXVII: CLUE Mafia Day1
« Reply #899 on: July 21, 2013, 10:32:22 pm »

I would much rather hammer Volt than let chairs die. No one for liopoil?

What's the case on lio?  Mostly the lurking?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 34 35 [36] 37 38 ... 82  All
 

Page created in 0.107 seconds with 16 queries.