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Author Topic: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (Game over, Ice Mafia win!)  (Read 140923 times)

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)
« Reply #1125 on: November 21, 2013, 11:57:23 am »

Current post counts through here:
Player
Voltaire
Yuma
Jimmmmm
2.71828.....
liopoil
sudgy
Gveoniz
D3 Post Count
25
19
17
15
6
5
3
D2 Post Count
53
85
30
58
33
33
12
D1 Post Count
55
51
8
47
24
25
11
Total
133
155
55
120
63
63
26
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1126 on: November 21, 2013, 11:59:28 am »

I don't like how he "does himself no favor" as if he is on his own now.  But I would not count on it for anything.

If you wouldn't count on it for anything, why mention it?
Because there is, as I mentioned, not much major useful thing that I can think of today I can only raise that very minor point. And I do want to see others's view on that.

Speaking of minor points:
As far as Robz buddying: If you want to see it as that, go ahead I can't stop youThat is not what it was. As far as the IC thing I was disappointed by what I saw as a rage-vote and really just wanted Voltaire to move past that so we could get work done on D2. (see here and here)  My response to Eevee covers other D2 buddying accusations that we were working together against Eevee.
And another minor point is that he said that he cannot stop me from thinking that he is buddying. While in the other hand made defenses which would stop me from thinking that. That is slightly strange (using the fact that town careless about death as additional defense?), but it don't really tell me anything.

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1127 on: November 21, 2013, 12:06:01 pm »

All in all I'm pretty null about liopoil. For me the most noteworthy observation is that his reads seemed to change a bit, which could be an open-minded Townie or scum going with the flow and following popular opinion. I think it could do with more thought about whether they were reasonable changes, and I will do so when I can.
His reads were very similar if you ask me.  The only change is he basically switched Eevee and Gveo's spots in his reads the second time.  Over 3 days, that is not a whole lot of change and I don't read anything into that.  Maybe a little bit of following popular opinion, but everyone develops reads over time.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1128 on: November 21, 2013, 12:09:15 pm »

I thought I'd look at post counts to see if I could find any reactions to scum or potential scum being close to a lynch. Robz reached L-2 really early on, I'd say too early to make anything of it.
I'm not sure how many votes he ended up getting, but yuma made his case on Gveoniz. Eevee briefly mentioned that Gveo's partner would have advised him not to do what he's been doing (which I disagree with), and otherwise seemed to ignore it altogether, while Robz seemed to ignore it entirely and his next mention of Gveo was as one of three possible lurker lynches. Granted this was during the time when Robz and Eevee were going head-to-head, but ignoring the case on Gveo and/or using the argument to distract from it seems like a plausible thing for a partner to do.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1129 on: November 21, 2013, 12:34:47 pm »

2) The case I laid out against sudgy was pretty weak, and included errors.  Just trying to keep sudgy on the table because I want to avoid being lynched?

Do you now think your sudgy case is weak, or that other people are seeing it as weak? Same question about it including errors.
1) A case that puts Sudgy as Robz' partner seems weak
2) A case that puts Sudgy as Eevee's partner is a little better.  I believe that it was still very safe for Eevee to put Sudgy in his "will flip scum" list.  Remember, this is a game where everyone wants to look like town, and in order to do that you sometimes have to come down against your partner.  Sudgy's behavior D1 still comes out on the scummier side in my mind, and really the only thing I saw him do D2 was defend himself over his D1 actions, come out against Gveo for what he saw as a change in behavior (Gveo says it wasn't) and then move on to the Arch lynch.  So like I said earlier, a controversial D1, a safe D2, and now back on Gveo for D3 so far.  In all has played a pretty safe game, which doesn't necessarily mean scum, but he hasn't had enough content in his posts to convince me he is town.  Liopoil has had much better content in my opinion with almost identical posting records. 

So in all I think a scummy sudgy is not inconceivable, and would place the case against him as a little better than weak but not very strong.
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1130 on: November 21, 2013, 01:10:43 pm »

Also,

mail-mi can you change the title to Day 3, not Day 2
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1131 on: November 21, 2013, 03:12:40 pm »

I guess at this point we need to hear from yuma again now that they day has happened a little bit. Everyone should be aware it only takes 4 to lynch today, but I see nothing wrong with votes being cast. This day is moving slowly and (spoiler alert!) I don't know who the last two scum are. Theoretically all six of you should want to lynch scum as much as me. I don't understand how this game keeps creeping along!
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1132 on: November 21, 2013, 03:50:41 pm »

I will do a sudgy thing.  Maybe it will get a response.

Pressure Vote: Sudgy
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1134 on: November 21, 2013, 03:56:17 pm »

Holy cow.  Anybody reread him in NMIV, and you'll agree.  Vote: Gveoniz.

sudgy, I re-read Gveo in NMIV and I don't quite agree. He didn't express his uncertainty as much as he has here, but he still brought it up frequently. Can you convince me otherwise?
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1135 on: November 21, 2013, 03:57:56 pm »

I will do a sudgy thing.  Maybe it will get a response.

Pressure Vote: Sudgy
Someone else join me.  Then we will be at L-2 and actually have some pressure

We could even put yuma or liopoil at L-2 at the same time.

I don't understand how this game keeps creeping along!
creep being the key word.  Sudgy has the least content today, so that is primarily why my vote is on him.  I also wouldn't feel terrible about his lynch because of the reasons I have outlined.  I agree with Voltaire in that I don't have a super clear read on anybody, but I am comfortable with a vote on any of the 3 players who were on the faust wagon still alive
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1136 on: November 21, 2013, 04:00:28 pm »

edit to my above post slightly to show what i was thinking more.  Gveo has the fewest posts, but I think it is a close race to who has the least content between the two of them

I will do a sudgy thing.  Maybe it will get a response.

Pressure Vote: Sudgy
Someone else join me.  Then we will be at L-2 and actually have some pressure

We could even put yuma or liopoil at L-2 at the same time.

I don't understand how this game keeps creeping along!
creep being the key word.  Sudgy has the least content today of the three on the faust wagon, so that is primarily why my vote is on him.  I also wouldn't feel terrible about his lynch because of the reasons I have outlined.  I agree with Voltaire in that I don't have a super clear read on anybody, but I am comfortable with a vote on any of the 3 players who were on the faust wagon still alive
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Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1137 on: November 21, 2013, 05:15:39 pm »

I'm trying to get rereads done (I have a notepad file with some of a big post), but my life has been pretty busy.  Sorry, and I'll try to get them done.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1138 on: November 21, 2013, 05:25:20 pm »

Fair enough. I would have thought Gveo was much higher.

Me too. His posts do tend to cover a lot of stuff, though.
I think I've said a few times that gveo hasn't been getting enough attention as a lurker...

Actually his reads had changed. He said this:


And three days later said this:

my initial read on eevee was not very well thought through, though it was more correct. The scumread there was just off the top of my head, when I really looked at him, I had a more null/town read on him IIRC.

yeah, I don't think I ever had a townread on faust... I wasn't totally sold on it at first, but unfortunately let myself get convinced. I feel like I have better reads now though (which I will be posting soon).

E has been posting weirdly today.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1139 on: November 21, 2013, 05:26:38 pm »

E has been posting weirdly today.

What, specifically, has been weird?
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1140 on: November 21, 2013, 05:45:07 pm »

Eevee reread, again only including things that could give me insight to the chance of being ice mafia for players still alive that aren't voltaire/liopoil:

D1:

- mentions multiple times how E is playing well, not like a newbie, doesn't need to mention newness over and over again. Should check to see if E changed his posting style after this.

- votes NHS (Jimmmmm) to get him to post

- specifically says that he is null on the faust/sudgy thing.

He really doesn't talk much about other people D1, or at least, not about people still alive. This is all I could find.

D2:

I recall Voltgloss having some strong opinions. Should go back to check what they were in the light of someone wanting to kill him.

What were they?
I went back to look now, and seems the thing I was recalling was nothing Voltgloss said himself - it was the fact yuma suspected him day 1, which isn't something I'd expect to happen. No idea what to make of that though.
Why doesn't he know what to make of it? this is something that's pretty clearly scummy in this setup. player A suspects player B, player B turns up dead, player A is suspicious. But eevee doesn't know what to make of this. Now, this is especially interesting because eevee's team didn't kill voltgloss, robz888's team did. So, if yuma is eevee's partner, eevee KNOWS that yuma suspecting voltgloss isn't scummy, because he didn't kill him! but if he isn't eevee partner, eevee should suspect yuma for this.

- has scumread on yuma for hammer, talks w/yuma a fair bit about why, explaining himself, etc. But he never votes for yuma!

- agrees w/voltaire that E has rocketed up the scum ladder

- posts reads w/out explanation (including townread on yuma all of a sudden), says will explain later. does:
--snip--

Basically, my reads at this point are:

--snip--

yuma: Should probably explain this in it's own post, especially as I'm blanking on verbalizing the reasons for the 180° right now.

Gweoniz, Jimmmm, liopoil: I'm pretty much totally null for the lack of information

--snip--

sudgy: His answers to yuma's grilling regarding the faust-vote are very lackluster to me. I see a strong possibility of scum putting down a scummy vote, being called out on it and not being able to explain it. Especially as sudgy's attitude hasn't been "I made a mistake", which is what again I'd think the plausible town narrative would be. He is insisting he had sufficient reasons for the vote, yet is as far as I can see unable to provide them.

E: Well, the timeline, as I see it, for E's day 2 is he does a couple of very scummy things (his arbitrary excluding and including people of different lists and deciding where the scum lies based on his assumptions reeked of scum just wanting to manipulate town towards his desired direction, and I covered how scummy I deemed his sheeping of Robz's case when I answered to that), gets called out on them (by the IC, of all people) and when the general atmosphere clearly starts to turn towards him being thought of as a lynch candidate, he rushes off to do quite extensive rereads, changes his tone of posting completely (I want to say from scummy to more calculated and cautious but that's just my perspective). Now, I do not want to give the impression I don't appreciate the work he put into the rereads and the game in general - I know it tremendously helped me to catch up quickly and more effortlessly. However, I disagree with giving him town cred for that - in fact it builds more towards the narrative of scum aggressively pursuing a mislynch (=lynch of someone not in his team), until he realizes he stepped over the line and then bolting back to his trench to wait out the attack (wait out not by lurking but by posting non-controversial stuff, and so much of it that the earlier stuff would be forgotten or forgiven.. some people react to cases on them by staying silent and hoping the case disappears, to me it seems like e reacted by abandoning his earlier goal of aggressively pushing us towards a lynch and just taking a defensive (albeit a very active) stance). This metaphor is much clearer in my heads, but think of it as a WW2 battle, first he runs from the trenches his guns blazing at his enemies like Rambo, then he gets called out on trying to shoot them and they shoot back, so he retreats to the bunker to wait out until we forget about him.
so slight scumreads on sudgy/E. But the bolded is the interesting bit. He never explains his reasoning for the sudden townread on yuma!

- says Gveoniz's partner would have warned him about playing differently.

- talks more, pushing E scumread.

48 hours to lynch. Absent a super-compelling case, I'm very likely to vote for the person who's the most viable lynch.
I guess scum would be less likely to say something this scummy, but I dislike this theory. It's like you are telling scum "no worries, we won't even try to hit you today, just vote for some townie and I'll follow".

Or you are scum and just bold.
hmmmm... I think this points to Jimmmmm not being eevee's partner, but I'm not sure.

So, based purely on this, in terms of how likely they are to be eevee's partner:

Yuma>>>Gveoniz>>>sudgy>E>Jimmmmm.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1141 on: November 21, 2013, 05:47:15 pm »

E has been posting weirdly today.

What, specifically, has been weird?
The pressure vote on sudgy, comment on getting people to L-2. I think someone else noticed something else too. I'm not really sure.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1142 on: November 21, 2013, 05:57:58 pm »

to put things together in a more useful format... tiers!

Robz:
most likely to be partner: yuma, E
middle-tier: gveoniz, Jimmmmm
unlikely to be partner: sudgy

Eevee:
most likely to be partner: yuma
middle-tier: gveoniz
unlikely to be partner: sudgy, E, Jimmmm

again note that this is only based on robz/eevee's interactions with the players, the player's interactions with robz/eevee are not included.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1143 on: November 21, 2013, 06:14:49 pm »

Voltaire... do you see any similarity between Jimmmm today and mail-mi at the beginning of day3 in Game of Thrones?
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1144 on: November 21, 2013, 06:16:58 pm »

Hopefully yuma, you at least can understand misreading a post.

I do... and that negates my scummier read on you to an extent. Before I realized that you had missed that post I felt that you were trying to spin Eevee's reads into something that wasn't true... that you were trying to manipulate them to your advantage. But I can see that it appears to be a reading error, which can happen to scum or town.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 2 START!!)
« Reply #1145 on: November 21, 2013, 06:19:32 pm »

I recall Voltgloss having some strong opinions. Should go back to check what they were in the light of someone wanting to kill him.

What were they?
I went back to look now, and seems the thing I was recalling was nothing Voltgloss said himself - it was the fact yuma suspected him day 1, which isn't something I'd expect to happen. No idea what to make of that though.
Why doesn't he know what to make of it? this is something that's pretty clearly scummy in this setup. player A suspects player B, player B turns up dead, player A is suspicious. But eevee doesn't know what to make of this. Now, this is especially interesting because eevee's team didn't kill voltgloss, robz888's team did. So, if yuma is eevee's partner, eevee KNOWS that yuma suspecting voltgloss isn't scummy, because he didn't kill him! but if he isn't eevee partner, eevee should suspect yuma for this.

- has scumread on yuma for hammer, talks w/yuma a fair bit about why, explaining himself, etc. But he never votes for yuma!

<snip>

48 hours to lynch. Absent a super-compelling case, I'm very likely to vote for the person who's the most viable lynch.
I guess scum would be less likely to say something this scummy, but I dislike this theory. It's like you are telling scum "no worries, we won't even try to hit you today, just vote for some townie and I'll follow".

Or you are scum and just bold.
hmmmm... I think this points to Jimmmmm not being eevee's partner, but I'm not sure.

So, based purely on this, in terms of how likely they are to be eevee's partner:

Yuma>>>Gveoniz>>>sudgy>E>Jimmmmm.

So explain this to me... why am I on one side of the chart when Jimmmm is on the other?

As far as I can see one side has eevee pointing out something scummy that I did but not voting for me vs eevee pointing out something scummy Jimmm did but not voting for me.

what is the difference?
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1146 on: November 21, 2013, 06:22:46 pm »

I will do a sudgy thing.  Maybe it will get a response.

Pressure Vote: Sudgy
Someone else join me.  Then we will be at L-2 and actually have some pressure

We could even put yuma or liopoil at L-2 at the same time.

I don't understand how this game keeps creeping along!
creep being the key word.  Sudgy has the least content today, so that is primarily why my vote is on him.  I also wouldn't feel terrible about his lynch because of the reasons I have outlined.  I agree with Voltaire in that I don't have a super clear read on anybody, but I am comfortable with a vote on any of the 3 players who were on the faust wagon still alive

This is bizarre. I don't think 2.7 plays this way as scum... but more importantly I don't think scum is going to be soooo aggressive today. Because if they push and push and push a mislynch they are probably dead meat tomorrow--or tonight. A scum strategy for today is to go slow and steady, try and let the other players push the mislynch--and thus take the flack tomorrow--while appearing to be active but not really being all that aggressive...

So I don't think 2.7 is our lynch for today. same as sudgy but for different reasons.

I think our lynch should be Jimmmm or lio. I want to hear from Voltaire about what he thinks about Jimmmmm from what I mentioned before.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1147 on: November 21, 2013, 06:26:22 pm »

Voltaire... do you see any similarity between Jimmmm today and mail-mi at the beginning of day3 in Game of Thrones?

No, but I see a similarity with scum!Jimmmmm from HP. I'll look into what you just said, though.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1148 on: November 21, 2013, 06:27:47 pm »

Also I agree with yuma that 2.7 is starting to feel like a mislynch. He's off the table for me. Those who want to lynch him, you can trying to convince me otherwise.
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Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (DAY 3 START!!)
« Reply #1149 on: November 21, 2013, 06:31:17 pm »

He doesn't express a scumread on Jimmmmm there!  he says that it actually is something he is LESS likely to say as scum. The reason you are likely to be his partner is a combination of his not making much of yuma suspecting voltgloss, his scumread on you which he thouroughly described but never vote on, and him later flipping on this read, saying he will explain why, and never doing so. 3 major points there I think.
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