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Author Topic: M117: Emotions Mafia (Game over! Scum wins flawlessly.)  (Read 29777 times)

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Galzria

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #375 on: August 13, 2018, 06:00:06 pm »

I don't love the silver case at all. In my eyes, it's a bunch of stuff that doesn't necessarily strike me as scummy. It's not necessarily towny, either, but it really reads like Galz is trying to paint every single post by silver as scummy to meet his conclusion. It doesn't read genuine at all.

If Galz is town, he has no idea what silver is. In his case, he reads basically every single post by silver in the worst possible light. This reads like someone trying to move to paint someone as scummy, and letting the conclusion lead the evidence, rather than the other way around.

Also, let's look at this vote count:

What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.10


silverspawn (3): Galzria, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in ~1 hour.


Simon and Galzria, the two main lynch candidates up until the silver case, aren't voting for each other! They're both moving to get a third wagon going.

I'm fine with either Simon or Galzria, and I prefer Galz. That case on silver just reads so incredibly disingenous to me.

I didn't include or even point to over half of his posts. Most of his posts are null. Your complaint is that there is a lot of evidence to support my read, and you're trying to spin it that I'm simply calling every post out negatively with no real reason to do so, which is simply untrue.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #376 on: August 13, 2018, 06:02:36 pm »

Really, it's so incredibly odd for Galzria and Simon to not be voting for each other. If I'm town, D1 I'm voting for ANYONE if they're the alternate wagon. I don't care how big a town read I have on them, it's D1 and it's a shot in the dark. The fact that Galz and Simon are the two largest wagons, and are both voting for a third wagon, silver, rather than for each other, is setting off enormous alarms in my head.

Silver has shot way up on my town list as a result of this

I don't town read Simon. Never have. Never stated to do so. I've scum read SS for some time though, and promised a case on him that I simply didn't have time to post earlier. The fact that it's come at the end of the day when the wagon on me was created in my absence is beyond my control. I was very clear that if making a wagon on SS was a thing that is too late to happen, then so be it, and I'll vote for Simon. But I would much rather push my scum read while I have the chance to do so, then resign myself to a lynch I have no opinion on just to save myself.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Twistedarcher

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #377 on: August 13, 2018, 06:02:43 pm »

I definitely want to lynch Galz after that case. I think he's scum desperately scrambling to get another wagon going, and using every post he can and painting it in the most malicious light to get silver to look as scummy as possible.

If he's town, it's just such a sloppy case, that still takes a conclusion (silver = scum), and tries to go back and find evidence to paint it that way, and I don't think that's likely coming from town!Galz. I think town!Galz jumps on Simon here rather than making that weird case on silver.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #378 on: August 13, 2018, 06:06:16 pm »

I don't love the silver case at all. In my eyes, it's a bunch of stuff that doesn't necessarily strike me as scummy. It's not necessarily towny, either, but it really reads like Galz is trying to paint every single post by silver as scummy to meet his conclusion. It doesn't read genuine at all.

If Galz is town, he has no idea what silver is. In his case, he reads basically every single post by silver in the worst possible light. This reads like someone trying to move to paint someone as scummy, and letting the conclusion lead the evidence, rather than the other way around.

Also, let's look at this vote count:

What do you feel?

Vote Count 1.10


silverspawn (3): Galzria, Simon Jester, EFHW
EFHW (1): Xxraptorslayer96
Simon Jester (4): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, gkrieg13
Galzria (4): Robz888, iguanaiguana, Skumpy, Twistedarcher

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends Monday, August 13th at 7 pm FT. That's in ~1 hour.


Simon and Galzria, the two main lynch candidates up until the silver case, aren't voting for each other! They're both moving to get a third wagon going.

I'm fine with either Simon or Galzria, and I prefer Galz. That case on silver just reads so incredibly disingenous to me.

I didn't include or even point to over half of his posts. Most of his posts are null. Your complaint is that there is a lot of evidence to support my read, and you're trying to spin it that I'm simply calling every post out negatively with no real reason to do so, which is simply untrue.

Oh come on. Some posts are so null that you can't possibly get scum reads from them, and yet you're painting them in the worst possible light to further your case. You're telling me that you're really getting a scum read from the following quotes, and how you're quoting them really fed into your analysis before determining that you think silver is spawn? I call BS -- the following interpretations read extremely fake to me. You're just simply painting silver in the worst possible light.
Quote from: Galzria
Simon seems so scummy to me that I'm beginning to think it's not an alignment think but a tone thing.

"Dude over here is scummy... but you didn't hear it from me!"

-
I super duper strongly disagree that only scum cares about scumslips. I think town cares more about scumslips, generally.

This doesn't seem like one to me either, but I wouldn't disount it completely.

"This probably isn't a scumslip... but it could be!"

-
That's a stupid vote. My instinct is to vote you in return but I don't think it actually makes you scummy.

"You deserve to be voted for your post... but I don't wanna be the one to do it!"

-
ok. vote: EFHW is as good as any.

I can't remember any game in which she was lynched early. Let's see what some day1 pressure does.

"Let's get and EFHW wagon going!..."

-
Also unvote I don't like the EFHW wagon. It has basically no justification and picked up too quickly.

The people who jumped on it are where I would look for scum now. Ironically, that's iguana. But then he changed. The others are raptor and simon.

vote: simon

"That was a scummy wagon on EFHW. I need to make sure to spin this to other people before it comes back to me for jumping on it with Iguana"

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Galzria

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #379 on: August 13, 2018, 06:06:47 pm »

I definitely want to lynch Galz after that case. I think he's scum desperately scrambling to get another wagon going, and using every post he can and painting it in the most malicious light to get silver to look as scummy as possible.

If he's town, it's just such a sloppy case, that still takes a conclusion (silver = scum), and tries to go back and find evidence to paint it that way, and I don't think that's likely coming from town!Galz. I think town!Galz jumps on Simon here rather than making that weird case on silver.

The only one scrambling out of the blue right now is you, TA.

Scum!Galz far less reason to make some weird third hour play at SS over just voting for Simon than Town!Galz does. Scum!Galz already has an out, without having to do anything. He can lynch any other player and not care. Town!Galz actually wants to lynch scum, and will pursue his preferred lynch as long as it's viable to do so.

And again, I've debunked your claim:

"and using every post he can and painting it in the most malicious light to get silver to look as scummy as possible."

as simply not true. Fake News.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Twistedarcher

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #380 on: August 13, 2018, 06:07:33 pm »

You could take anyone's posts and use language like that to spin a towny or a scummy narrative. That doesn't mean that it's a good case, and it just reads very very fake to me.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #381 on: August 13, 2018, 06:08:14 pm »

Ugh are we really using "fake news" here in mafia games? OK, time to log off, that's absurd and I am so unhappy that that's bleeding into f.ds. Time to go cooldown
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Swowl

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #382 on: August 13, 2018, 06:11:44 pm »

At the market. Be back at a computer with 15 to spare.

Will switch if u have to. Bother seem like worse wagons than Simon still tho
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EFHW

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #383 on: August 13, 2018, 06:12:05 pm »

I agree with Space and TA about Galz's case in that he is choosing to view things in one arbitrary way. My thought, though, was that scum!galz would have just voted for simon. TA's theory requires both Galz and Simon to be scum, which feels like a stretch on D1. But it is true Galz is doing a last minute diversion to a third wagon on Day 1, when no one's cases are likely to be any good. My scumreads today have been silver, TA and Space. Galz is attacking silver; TA and Space jump in to defend him. I doubt very much that I have found the scum team,  but I'll stick with my reads for now. Long way of saying I considered the arguments against Galz's case and am staying on silver.
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Simon Jester

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #384 on: August 13, 2018, 06:13:24 pm »

Really, it's so incredibly odd for Galzria and Simon to not be voting for each other. If I'm town, D1 I'm voting for ANYONE if they're the alternate wagon. I don't care how big a town read I have on them, it's D1 and it's a shot in the dark. The fact that Galz and Simon are the two largest wagons, and are both voting for a third wagon, silver, rather than for each other, is setting off enormous alarms in my head.

Silver has shot way up on my town list as a result of this

It is a valid point somewhat but it haven't been a very productive D1 and I wanted this case earlier to have better wagons as alternative to mine. I don't like a galz-lynch very much, it was a LALL-choice (and I rather pick Robz), you seems townie now and I don't want it anymore. Silver is very much null but of the active players he has been the least helpful and is the lynch with highest chance catching scum as it is right now. I have trouble explaining town!ss behaviour this day and I rather voting who I think is scum than doing something out of self-preservation, I don't care much if it means that my lynch becomes inevitable, I think it is still the right thing to do.     

ppe
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #385 on: August 13, 2018, 06:13:45 pm »

Silver was the second-most-prolific poster when I made my reads list before, so it's not surprising that there are things he's said that can be taken against him.

The thing I noted to myself about what he'd written was that he said at #144 that he didn't have any scumreads yet, even though he'd already said some things were scummy. The rest of his narrative seemed to say that he'd had a scumread on Simon that he'd concluded was too scummy to be scum", so it had faded. But that's not the same as no scumreads yet.

I'm still not interested in a silver wagon, even though that's practically a scumslip by my standards ;-)

PPE 6+
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
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silverspawn

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #386 on: August 13, 2018, 06:22:48 pm »

am here. catching up with the last page.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #387 on: August 13, 2018, 06:23:52 pm »

I don't really like the case on silver.
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Skumpy

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #388 on: August 13, 2018, 06:26:00 pm »

I don't believe Galz not voting Simon is a sign of scum scrambling to not bus, that's way too extreme, and furthermore, we didn't get 2 wagons right. That's preposterous. This attempt to divert the wagon with an hour to spare really doesn't strike me much one way or the other. ss isn't going to go through, I think his vote's ending up on Simon eventually. I think scum!Galz knows that, I think town!Galz suspects that.

The case on ss isn't awful, scum usually likes to look reasonable without looking committal. It's arbitrary, but so is everything D1. Honest answer, I don't really have enough time to digest it all, though there are some things I've already indicated that stand out.

I'll be gone very soon, and I don't think I've heard enough to get me to change my vote. Also, I'm not voting ss in the first place, as I said long ago. If you can put together 8 votes, more power to you. It wouldn't be the worst lynch, not by a mile. But I don't see it happening.
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He is (and take this in a positive light Skumpy) eccentric, flamboyant and excessive at times. His posts are ones that cause people to look at him and say "huh?"

Galzria

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #389 on: August 13, 2018, 06:30:09 pm »

I agree with Space and TA about Galz's case in that he is choosing to view things in one arbitrary way. My thought, though, was that scum!galz would have just voted for simon. TA's theory requires both Galz and Simon to be scum, which feels like a stretch on D1. But it is true Galz is doing a last minute diversion to a third wagon on Day 1, when no one's cases are likely to be any good. My scumreads today have been silver, TA and Space. Galz is attacking silver; TA and Space jump in to defend him. I doubt very much that I have found the scum team,  but I'll stick with my reads for now. Long way of saying I considered the arguments against Galz's case and am staying on silver.

It may very well be that I'm looking for things and finding them scummy - that's kind of the point of playing. I have stayed up to date in thread, I have the entire day. As the day went on, I developed a scum read on a player, that read continued to grow stronger, and by far is the biggest scum read that I have. So in making a case on them, feeling them more likely scum than anyone else at this point, I go back and re-read them looking for what I feel to be supporting evidence. That doesn't make me right, and it doesn't mean the actions of the accused cannot come from town instead of scum. It means that due to some posts by SS, I think he's scum, I would prefer to lynch him, and I've used his posts to explain why he reads scummy to me. One could argue that those same posts read townie to them - and I've seen that. Literally someone makes a post, and the two posts immediately following it are from two different players: one quoting and saying it's a townie post, and the other quoting and saying it's a scummy post. Maybe those posts read townie to other people... but they don't read townie to me, so I have absolutely no problem using them to make a case here.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #390 on: August 13, 2018, 06:34:45 pm »

All that said, 28 minutes to deadline, and I doubt there's enough support to make the lynch go through - Skumpy's right about that. Even with 3 on right now, if the lizard flipped, the swan flipped, and even if Skumpy flipped, that's 6, not 7. TA, Space, SS (duh) and Gkrieg don't seem interested in voting there. Raptor is gone. That only leaves Robz, and we're rolling the dice on him even showing up.

So yes, I'll likely have to end up voting Simon. I'm fine with that. I said earlier that an attempt to lynch SS may be too late - but that regardless I wanted the case and the read out there. If I'm lynched or die at night, you'll at least know that the read was genuine.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Simon Jester

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #391 on: August 13, 2018, 06:35:58 pm »

damn, need to go. Leaving my vote on Galz after all. Vote: Galzria
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Galzria

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #392 on: August 13, 2018, 06:37:13 pm »

Unfortunate.

Vote: Simon
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

iguanaiguana

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #393 on: August 13, 2018, 06:37:49 pm »

Anyone have a vote count?
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Galzria

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #394 on: August 13, 2018, 06:38:16 pm »

Anyone have a vote count?

Simon and I are at 5, EFHW is on SS, Raptor is on EFHW.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

EFHW

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #395 on: August 13, 2018, 06:39:18 pm »

Intent to vote simon
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EFHW

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #396 on: August 13, 2018, 06:39:51 pm »

vote: Simon L-1
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silverspawn

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #397 on: August 13, 2018, 06:40:38 pm »

~case~

Ok, two points about that

Quote
"This probably isn't a scumslip... but it could be!"

Well... yeah. That's, like, obviously true.

I'm picking this out because it's similar to a bunch of things you accuse me of, which boil down to saying that things are kind of gray. And you're making that sound scummy.

But isn't what I said about the slip just obviously true from the PoV of anyone  who's town and not skumpy? "It's probably not a slip but it could be" well, duh. What else could you think about it?

So yeah, I don't think being nuanced is a bad thing.

Two:
Quote
"Let's get and EFHW wagon going!..."

Quote
"That was a scummy wagon on EFHW. I need to make sure to spin this to other people before it comes back to me for jumping on it with Iguana"

You could easily interpret this in the opposite way. In fact, it seems to me like this is more plausibly interpreted in the opposite way. You're accusing me of being non-commital and throwing suspicion. I voted for EFHW, started a wagon, then changed my mind even though EFHW looked like a plausible lynch at that point. Isn't that the opposite of what you're describing?

The fact that you're pretending like this fits your theory doesn't speak well of the case I think. The strength of a theory is in what it can't predict. If anything I do fits your theory, it has no predictive power. An honest reading of my posts should have realized that what I did with EFHW doesn't actually fit at all.

Also, do you think EFHW is in fact town? Then why did I abandon the lynch? Didn't I put myself in more danger?
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #398 on: August 13, 2018, 06:41:36 pm »

In the end, I think simon is probably town :/

He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.

I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.
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You are my favorite reptile.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.
All iguanas are equal. But some iguanas are more equal than others.

silverspawn

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Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #399 on: August 13, 2018, 06:42:21 pm »

I don't buy some big pieces of Galz's case on silver. I think Galz is just not really reading silver's comments in as Bayesian a sense as I think silver means them.

This is beautifully put.
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