I never tried to undermine your wagon reasoning Space. I tried to curb it because I have seen wagons go exactly the way you don't think they're supposed to go.
Yeah, to be fair, the wagon arguments certainly worked particularly well here because Robz said we shouldn't bus, and if he hadn't, they might have been less on point. But nonetheless, an argument that's so clear-cut alignment indicative is rare.
Why do you think they would have been less on point? Do you think scum voting for scum dissuades townies from also voting on those scums?
Note that the "at least 1 scum in {X, Y, Z}" types of constraints work just as well if both X and Y are scum, and Y and Z happen to be the only non-conf!town players on X's wagon out of a whole bunch of conf!townies. So the three example wagons below would all suggest the same "at least one scum in {X, Y, Z} constraint:
X (6): Y, Z, G, G, G
Y (6): G, G, Z, G, X
G (6): X, Y, G, Z, G
In the first two, there could be bussing if both X and Y are scum, and the constraint still holds. If Z flips scum, though, there's no PoE this way with the other two, without using additional information. (Though there could easily
be extra info out there making one think that if Z is scum then so is Y... it's just a limitation of that particular mode of constraint-generation).
I guess the main effect I can think of would be that more scum-on-scum voting might encourage more town-on-town voting just because people get nervous running big wagons up early on, but if that gave an advantage to scum, I don't see why scum wouldn't use it more. The only ways scum can avoid this kind of PoEing would be to behave in ways that encourages bigger town-on-town wagons to form, without themselves having to join them. Well, that and being more careful about which townies they flip, though there's already wifom in whether scum want to kill on-wagon or off.. just usually they only care about the EoD wagon on the previous night, rather than the full set of wagons across the entire game history.