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Author Topic: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! FORSAKEN WIN!  (Read 180073 times)

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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1475 on: April 19, 2014, 06:36:17 pm »

Oh, right. I thought he just got to choose one, but I remember that now.

In Dominion terms:

"Choose one: Protect your target from one nightkill or your target cannot take any actions tonight.  If another player targets you while you play this card, do both options."

It's all fake anyway.
I thought Andrew got neither power unless targeted, but I might have gotten that wrong.
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Archetype

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1476 on: April 19, 2014, 07:03:11 pm »

I could possibly explain why Yuma didn't die.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1477 on: April 19, 2014, 07:30:27 pm »

Again if we are going to mass claim we will get to it in a few days, lets not get distracted from the main goal of these few days: rereading and finding the interactions WW had with other players. We will have plenty of time to claim, etc when we feel the need to get to that point. I fear that if we just start talking claiming we will never get to the WW stuff and not fully utilize it.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1478 on: April 19, 2014, 11:26:18 pm »

Ok I had some time to reread WW and here's what I found. I'm not adding quotes and such because I'm ryping on a phone and that's just too much work right now.

The first I noticed was WW subtly casting suspicion on ash all game, although his later posts mention that he finds ash less scummy and he doesn't think be should be lynched while on vacation. Weak.

He tunnels Jimmy pretty hard for a while and makes long posts with quotes and links in an attempt (I think) to start a wagon. So town read on Jimm for that and for voting WW after I did. Xeiron responds to my voting WW by saying he has a town read on WW for the same reasons I had a scumead on him. Not sure what to make of that. As far as partners go, I'm gonna say ash, Arch, and XP are the most likely. I'm sure Yuma's reread was much more productive than mine.
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1479 on: April 20, 2014, 01:20:08 pm »

Ok, re-reading WW as well. Here's my main takeaway from D1 so far (I got to post #460): Ash and Andrew are both town. You're both town! You're both town! But definitely Andrew. WW pushes Andrew subtly without voting him at first, and then votes him and pushes him hard. He makes no attempt to look elsewhere when Andrew is the only wagon. Even when not voting Andrew, he's pushing the case subtly.

He also says multiple times that he has an instinct that there's scum in Andrew-Ash, although he's not sure who.

This just reinforces what I thought, that Ash/Andrew are both town. I really believe you both are town, and we should focus elsewhere!

Here's my notes so far copy + pasted from notepad:

WW reread:
At first - against massclaim

Post #309 - Says that he feels like someone involved in the Ash-Andrew argument is scum, but he's not sure yet.

#327 - Attack on Andrew despite the fact that Andrew is at L-1 and he's not voting him. This really makes me think that Andrew is town, and WW wants the lynch to go through but he doesn't want to get caught on it.

#331 - More of the same. Not voting Andrew at all, but basically agreeing with the case.

#342 - Leans scum on Andrew, doesn't want to lynch him though. Could be avoiding a town wagon, could be reluctance to bus a partner until he has to, could see it going either way.

(unrelated, but interesting -- Xeiron has similar views to WW in #346 -- Andrew/ADK are scummy, but he's not ready to vote for a lynch yet)

#380 WW puts Andrew to L-1 for same reasons as before

#440, keeps pushing Andrew hard

#451 - Arch has WW as null

#459 - "First instinct was that one of Ash/Andrew is town
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Jorbles

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1480 on: April 20, 2014, 01:22:28 pm »

Vote Count 3.1

ashersky (1): AndrewisFTTW
AndrewisFTTW (1): ashersky
Archetype (1): Twistedarcher

Not Voting (5): yuma, Jimmmmm, xeiron, XerxesPraelor, Archetype

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 3 ends on April 27 at 11:30 PM FT.

Xeiron coughs into his hand and slumps over onto the ground.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2014, 02:14:22 pm by mail-mi »
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1481 on: April 20, 2014, 01:44:25 pm »

Through the end of D1...

#472 - Yuma announces he wants to shoot WW. Let's see the responses!

#474 - Ash likes it. Could be Ash not wanting to protest against his partner being shot, or Ash actually having a scum read on WW (I haven't seen that up to this point). Null on this post.

#480 Arch says WW should claim

#490 - Andrew says he thinks Ash is town (unrelated, but this changed)

#493 - WW says it's possible both Ash and Andrew are scum.

#548 - WW doesn't find Sudgy wagon, finds Andrew and Ash scummy. Andrew and Ash are still both town!

Keeps pushing Andrew when Sudgy is at L-1

#610 WW votes Ash

I focus people (Yuma) back on Sudgy instead of Witherweaver after he moves off...no one made any attempt to move to WW

#724 WW's choices are Ash/Andrew
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1482 on: April 20, 2014, 01:47:16 pm »

Biggest D1 takeaway -- WW continually lumps Ash/Andrew together, saying he is sure there's scum there, and then is okay voting either. Early on, he pushes Andrew, first subtly without voting, then starts pushing harder once people have moved away a bit. Later on, he shows willingness to jump onto Ash. His entire D1 is dominated by finding Ash/Andrew scummy.

Unfortunately, there's not many interactions on the other side. Only person focused on WW d1 is Yuma, and we already know Yuma's alignment. There weren't many reactions to Yuma saying he wanted to shoot WW -- more generalized reactions than specific to WW's play in this game. Hopefully, D2 will be better. My only takeaways from D1 are that Andrew/Ash are town, and no leads as to who WW's partners could be (but knowing Ash/Andrew are likely town is pretty significant in my book).

Easter egg hunt time, I'll get to D2 later this afternoon hopefully.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1483 on: April 20, 2014, 01:53:49 pm »

Alright. I'm listening to TA.

unvote
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1484 on: April 20, 2014, 01:55:21 pm »

Also, total lack of interaction between WW and Arch.

vote: Archetype
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1485 on: April 20, 2014, 02:14:19 pm »

Flying home today, back fully tomorrowish.  Will do the WW-focused reread then.

unvote
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1486 on: April 20, 2014, 08:09:05 pm »

Thanks Andrew and TA for getting some thought out.

So I am fully VLA for my brother's wedding starting Friday-Sunday, which I think is pretty much the deadline? Yeah, the deadline is Sunday April 27 in the evening. So I will be back for the deadline, but gone the three days prior to it.

So this is how I would like the day to go down:

Now until Tuesday the 22nd: rereads on WW. Votes are still good as is general discussion/suspicion/defenses/etc. But hold off claiming and claiming discussion. Obviously I am not going to set a deadline on rereads (they will be accepted after this period, but will be vastly more useful the earlier they are done).

Tuesday night I will present my thoughts on the WW and what I have noticed in my rereads (keep in mind that starting tomorrow I am also back to work, so less available in general)

Wednesday 23rd through Friday the 25th: claiming and discussion about claiming, (if deemed it is needed). I am still not sure that it is needed. There are certainly something we need to discuss, but I'll get to that later.

Friday the 25th to Sunday the 27th: I am gone. Keep talking here unless we already hit a lynch (which is possible and maybe preferable, but I am not going to mandate it just to accommodate my schedule) and you certainly don't need to wait for me to lynch. I would like to be around and give my opinion to help get the right lynch through, but that isn't absolutely necessary. I'll be back in the mid-afternoon and hopefully through deadline, more or less, if needed

Anyways, sorry that I won't be around to better lead those last three days, but hopefully that will force people to take the initiative themselves and help us get a better read on them...
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Twistedarcher

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1487 on: April 20, 2014, 10:16:02 pm »

Xeiron do you know what's going on?
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1488 on: April 20, 2014, 11:12:10 pm »

Xeiron coughs into his hand and slumps over onto the ground. [/b][/color]

wait... I didn't see this the first time through... making sure that others saw it as well...

At this point anyone who knows what is going on here should say something...
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1489 on: April 20, 2014, 11:14:42 pm »

Like don't get distracted from the WW stuff, but it looks like xeiron is slowly dying on us here? So if we need to get moving to do something about that or whatever we absolutely should and need that information sooner rather than later... unless xeiron is mafia then let him rot!!!
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1490 on: April 20, 2014, 11:51:19 pm »

Well I guess that has something to do with not having the dagger. As far as I know (and I'm only up to book 6 but the dagger hasn't been mentioned in a couple books), the only two people to posess the dagger are Mat (good, healed from the dagger's effects) and Padan Fain (bad, currently has the dagger) although I don't think mail-mi would out mafia/SK just like that. I have no idea.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1491 on: April 20, 2014, 11:52:40 pm »

OR! Maybe Xeiron was the SK and he converted to something else? That would explain the one night kill.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1492 on: April 21, 2014, 03:10:36 am »

Xeiron do you know what's going on?

I do.
We have time to finish the day according to Yumas plan.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1493 on: April 21, 2014, 07:06:28 pm »

Okay, I'm back from vacation.  Will re-read soon.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1494 on: April 21, 2014, 07:22:45 pm »

Finally got time to do a ww re-read myself.

All the votes of Witherweaver:
 
Going back and reading the posts where this started, Andrew seems overly defensive from the beginning.  If he had nothing to hide and the accusation had no credibility, then I don't think he'd need to respond with such incredulousness.

Vote: AndrewisFTTW

Well, I don't really have a scum read on Sudgy.  I see what people are saying, but I think it's more likely a case of someone not playing very carefully.  If he was scum he'd probably be much more conscious about what he's posting.  Or else he's just going for crazy randomness.

My opinion on Andrewis hasn't changed.  I don't think there's any more to be said about it, though.  It would just be rehashing what has been said before, and I can't see me suddenly seeing it in a new light.  I would really like to know his alignment, though.

I think out of all the options other than Andrewis, Ash comes off as the most scummy.  It makes more sense to me for super aggression to come from scum rather than town.  To me it would get a mislynch more likely as some of the town can get convinced by the argument, scum can hop on the wagon without much suspicion, and people that are on the fence can look to flaws in the other person's defense.  In fact, that could have indeed been what happened here.  If Andrewis was town, he got put in an uncomfortable spot pretty quickly, and most of the people that voted against him (including me) did so because of issues with how he defended himself, not because of the original accusation.  And then when the mislynch happens, you have the wine-in-front-of-me defense "Why would I have been so aggressive about it if I was scum?  Scum is more likely to come in later and dodge suspicion."  And people would probably buy that, because it would take a lot of guts.

Well, I'm back to being uncertain about the Andrewis/Ash thing.  I have trouble reconciling scum reads on both of them. Maybe it's an act to confuse us, but Ash was pushing it pretty hard, and that seems like a really risky idea.  Though maybe the goal could have been to get town on the wagon and then cast them as scum that were trying to sneak on the mislynch without raising much attention. 

I suppose there is a chance they're both scum, but not on the same team.  One could be a third party (serial killer or whatever). 

So my choices are Andrewis or Ash.  I guess I'd be okay with either.. I'm going to Vote: Ashersky.

Then you should vote Andrew..he is more viable than Ash I believe. I don't see Ash getting to 7 votes, he is farther away and several people have said they wouldn't vote him. (I won't vote him personally)

Okay, I'm back to Vote: AndrewisFTTW.

Three votes on two persons are all. Townpoints to both Andrew and Ash for this. I do not think Witherweaver was bussing. It is quite intimidating to vote for your teammates. Especially for newbe scum. 

More townpoints to Andrew than Ash, though. Ash is known for being bold as scum, and I could see him instruct his scumparners to vote for him, as some part of a plan.


Question to someone who knows flavor, since my attempts at figuring this out on the WoT wiki have been ambiguous:

Would a character holding a maiden spear be good or evil?

Good.  That would be an Aeil, and they were swell.  For the most part.  Okay there was a clan who were pricks, so maybe you need some context.

But those questions give stuff away!  I don't think we should be asking them.

Well I don't think there's harm in giving this away, since he's roleclaimed, but Yuma is a possessor of a maiden spear. So that means he's probably town?

Are you sure it's "possessor of a maiden spear" and not "Is a Maiden of the Spear"?
This conversation strikes me as something that would be discussed in the scum QT, not in-thread if TA was scum.
Townpoints to TA.


Witherweaver several times lumps Jimm, Archetype, A Drowned Kernel, Xerxes, and me together. I think this is the best place to look in order to find scum.
I agree with a townread on Andrew. Witherweaver is acting towny as well, he has become a clear townread to me troughout D2.

Okay, well, I can come up with a town reason, but  I would have liked to hear Andrewis say it.  I find that line of discussion really odd, but I don't have any scum reads on anything else he's said today.

Ash I still feel scummy about.  I don't know why he went gunning after Andrewis today.  It seemed to start out "okay I guess he's town" then moves to "nevermind you're a liar".

Yuma.. is an enigma.  But probably a town enigma.  Or he's an armed lunatic that is going to gun us all down. 

TwistedArcher .. Well, with a mislynch yesterday and two town PR's gone during the night, he was pretty much the first person to come out trying to find targets on Day 2.  He seemed to be looking at everything and considering options. Seems more like a town thing than a scum thing to me.  I think scum would want to stay quieter.

The rest of the people.. I don't really have much on.  I think they've all been very quiet. 

Jimm, Xeiron, Archetype, A Drowned Kernel (warned he would be gone), Xerxes.  In general I don't know what to think about this group as they all seem involved only very subtly. 

I guess I have some thoughts on Xerxes.  He flavor claimed out of the blue on day 1, and then role claimed unprompted on day 2.  And his target died, so the claim (which I assume would normally be easy to confirm) can't be confirmed.  Okay that's suspicious.  On the other hand, flavor and role match up pretty well.  Not what I would have guessed, but it makes sense.  Comes out voting Ash and I don't really follow his explanation.

Xeiron.  There was a lot of talk about him being super scummy towards the end of Day 1.  I think from Andrew.  I didn't really follow it, so I'll have to go back.

Archetype.. very quiet.  Comes out with a vote on Ash without much of a reason, except saying he wanted to do it yesterday.  I'm not sure why he wanted to do it yesterday.  And a very confusing argument about Andrew being alive incriminating Ash.  I don't think it makes sense.  If anything is to be gained from the Andrew is alive, ADK's point seemed more reasonable.  So suspicious.

Jimm.. everyone thinks he's scummy.  I don't recall much explanation though.  I'll have to look back here too.

A Drowned Kernel.  Hasn't said a lot, but he said he'd be absent. 

So, great, I'm back to being confused.  The person here I have a scum feeling on is Ash, and the two people that I find most suspicious otherwise are voting against Ash.   I think we need to hear more thoughts from the quiet crowd.

What I find interesting is that WW seems to be up to date on Archetype and Xerxes, while he mentiones a need to reread Jimm and me. Could it be that he is automaticly paying attention to them because they are his scumpartners?
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1495 on: April 21, 2014, 07:27:23 pm »

My conclution after the reread:

Not mafia: Yuma, Twistedarcher, Andrews, Xeiron
probably not mafia: Ashersky
Null: Jimm
slight scum: Xerxes
good mafia candidate: Archetype.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1496 on: April 21, 2014, 07:30:11 pm »

mail-mi, I modified the thread subject to the correct day, because man that bugs me.
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1497 on: April 21, 2014, 07:50:41 pm »

Finished D1 reread of WW.  Noticed most of the stuff xeiron mentions above.  My notes:

Mordeth interaction with Faust - ends up town read
Andrew calls out WW for his town read
Doesn't know about the scumslip
Is wishy washy for a long time
Finally joins the Andrew wagon when it's strong
Starts making case on Andrew based on his reaction, not the slip
Later says "one of the two is scum" in me and andrew
votes me late in the day
returns to voting andrew late when it was clear he wasn't going to be lynched

I think this is a bussing narrative, with ww trying to slow things down on Andrew right after the scumslip, jumping on the wagon when it looked inevitable, deflecting to me when yuma was trying to reel it in, then staying off the mislynch by voting his partner when it was safe.

So I think there's a D1 narrative where Andrew is WW's partner.  It actually starts way back with the really odd suspicion Andrew tries to throw at WW for his faust townread.

The "one of these two is scum!" thing is a scum thing to do, too, for cred.  If we lynch his partner, he looks good, if we mislynch, he looks good.

That's what I got from D1.  Headed to D2.

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1498 on: April 21, 2014, 07:55:12 pm »

Not as much from D2 WW.

Some talk of ADK/Arch.  More back and forth with Andrew.  Some talk with Xeiron.  A bit about yuma oddly enough.

I'm not getting much out of D2.  Nothing to reduce the D1 Andrew connection.  He doesn't interact with some folks.  Where is the Arch idea coming from?  Just the lack of interaction?
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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 3)
« Reply #1499 on: April 21, 2014, 08:45:27 pm »

Ash, I disagree that ww was bussing Andrew d1. It just makes less sense than Andrew being town.
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