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Author Topic: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! FORSAKEN WIN!  (Read 206238 times)

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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1075 on: April 08, 2014, 07:28:00 pm »

If... and this is a major if because I still think it is highly unlikely... Andrew is scum I would bet that ADK is also scum looking to bus now in D2

And if Andrew is Town?

I don't know...
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1076 on: April 08, 2014, 07:30:29 pm »

If... and this is a major if because I still think it is highly unlikely... Andrew is scum I would bet that ADK is also scum looking to bus now in D2

I don't understand why that's more likely than the situation where Andrew is scum and ADK is town that thinks Andrew is scummy.

I haven't seen much at all to indicate ADK is scum, and that explanation makes sense, though there would be other reasons for scum not targeting Andrew (basically the same set that was discussed for you, except the part about controlling the dayvig).

Because I can see a narrative where if ADK and Andrew are both scum, then they would have had a conversation wherein something like this was said "man people are going to be suspicious about Andrew after yesterday+plus not dying, so it would probably be good for ADK to think about bussing early in case I do flip tomorrow" combined with the strong read on him being town and then suddenly switching today when really nothing has really changed.

Like I said, I don't think it is the case, but if Andrew flips scum here I am calling this a potential buss.
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yuma

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1077 on: April 08, 2014, 10:00:08 pm »

Soooo... we need something to go off here. We are kinda at a standstill. At least I know I am. I feel like I have a number of townier reads and some reads on the scummier side but nothing extremely strong... I don't know how to alleviate that. I was kinda hoping for some beneficial claiming of results (not claiming willy nilly but real results with real meaning...) to give us something to go off. (Although given my role I think I am more inclined to the mass claiming side...)

imma gonna go vote: jimmmm. Still think he was a better lynch choice than sudgy or andrew but it never gained traction and I haven't seen anything today to make me think otherwise.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1078 on: April 08, 2014, 11:08:36 pm »

Soooo... we need something to go off here. We are kinda at a standstill. At least I know I am. I feel like I have a number of townier reads and some reads on the scummier side but nothing extremely strong... I don't know how to alleviate that. I was kinda hoping for some beneficial claiming of results (not claiming willy nilly but real results with real meaning...) to give us something to go off. (Although given my role I think I am more inclined to the mass claiming side...)

imma gonna go vote: jimmmm. Still think he was a better lynch choice than sudgy or andrew but it never gained traction and I haven't seen anything today to make me think otherwise.

I think people should be gunshy about claiming stuff, unless it's having caught scum.  I mean, everyone needs to make their own decisions, of course, but there are ways other than claiming to make things known.

I made the point on D1 that this Jimmmmm was familiar to the early days Jimmmmm that was my scumpartner in Super Mario.  Not much came of that, and he hasn't posted much otherwise.  I do have this nagging feeling that what he has posted has read towny to me, though.  He does that "reactive question thing" when he's town.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1079 on: April 09, 2014, 12:43:45 am »

So I've been trying to work my way into this game with re-reads etc but slowly coming to the depressing conclusion that I simply have no idea who scum are. yuma, ash, you're both Town reads for me - is there someone or something you think it would be helpful for me to look at more closely?
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1080 on: April 09, 2014, 12:55:23 am »

So I've been trying to work my way into this game with re-reads etc but slowly coming to the depressing conclusion that I simply have no idea who scum are. yuma, ash, you're both Town reads for me - is there someone or something you think it would be helpful for me to look at more closely?

So...I think the major "events" so far this game have been the Andrew Affair, the yuma dayvig claim, and the xerxespraelor mailman claim.  There has been relatively little movement on anything at all by anyone other than the most active players, which does allow for scum lurking to work well here.

If you were going to do targeted re-reads, I'd say choose someone middle of the packish on posts.  I don't think scum would egregiously lurk, but I think they might let the loudmouths like us run the show.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1081 on: April 09, 2014, 12:57:17 am »

Post count:

1. Archetype (44)
2. yuma (160)
3. XerxesPraelor (27)
4. xeiron (36)
6. Twistedarcher (111)
7. Witherweaver (88)
10. A Drowned Kernel (30)
11. AndrewisFTTW (13)
12. Jimmmmm (61)
13. ashersky (184)

This doesn't remove pre-game.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1082 on: April 09, 2014, 12:58:56 am »

Re-ordered...

Most active --- ashersky, yuma, Andrew, TA, witherweaver, Jimmmmm, Archetype, Xeiron, ADK, Xerxes --- least active
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1083 on: April 09, 2014, 12:59:08 am »

Andrew is 130, not 13.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1084 on: April 09, 2014, 01:01:28 am »

Most active --- ashersky, yuma, Andrew, TA, witherweaver, Jimmmmm, Archetype, Xeiron, ADK, Xerxes --- least active

Wow, there are 4 people less active than me?!
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ashersky

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1085 on: April 09, 2014, 01:06:01 am »

Most active --- ashersky, yuma, Andrew, TA, witherweaver, Jimmmmm, Archetype, Xeiron, ADK, Xerxes --- least active

Wow, there are 4 people less active than me?!

Based on # of posts, yes.
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Archetype

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1086 on: April 09, 2014, 02:56:11 am »

Posting so I don't get prodded.

I've been somewhat busy, but I'll be rereading Jimmmmm (to investigate scumminess) and Andrew (prove Townieness) soon.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1087 on: April 09, 2014, 03:53:06 am »

I've been somewhat busy, but I'll be rereading Jimmmmm (to investigate scumminess) and Andrew (prove Townieness) soon.

You're re-reading with preconceived bias?
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Archetype

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1088 on: April 09, 2014, 09:25:44 am »

I've been somewhat busy, but I'll be rereading Jimmmmm (to investigate scumminess) and Andrew (prove Townieness) soon.

You're re-reading with preconceived bias?
I've stated before that I have a townread on Andrew because of his claim. I'm going to try and find other stuff that shows everyone else that he's town.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #1089 on: April 09, 2014, 09:32:23 am »

If we had time (we don't), someone could figure out if these claims match the flavor.

This was from right before deadline.  Is this still worth doing with the other claims?  Andrew seemed to think that the flavor fakeclaims mentioned in the setup post would involve appropriate role fakeclaims.
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Jorbles

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1090 on: April 09, 2014, 12:26:03 pm »

Vote Count 2.2:

ashersky (3): Archetype, XerxesPraelor, AndrewisFTTW
Jimmmmmm (2): xeiron, yuma
XerxesPraelor (1): ashersky
xeiron (1): Twistedarcher
AndrewisFTTW (1): A Drowned Kernel

Not Voting (2): Witherweaver, Jimmmmm

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #1091 on: April 09, 2014, 12:32:19 pm »

If we had time (we don't), someone could figure out if these claims match the flavor.

This was from right before deadline.  Is this still worth doing with the other claims?  Andrew seemed to think that the flavor fakeclaims mentioned in the setup post would involve appropriate role fakeclaims.

I don't see why not. Otherwise a mass flavorclaim would catch scum. There's certainly enough characters. But anyway...

I'm Nynaeve. If you're not familiar with the WOT series, Nynaeve is able to channel but only when she's angry. Thus when someone targets me I get angry, I channel, and I both doctor and roleblock whoever I target.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #1092 on: April 09, 2014, 12:41:17 pm »

If we had time (we don't), someone could figure out if these claims match the flavor.

This was from right before deadline.  Is this still worth doing with the other claims?  Andrew seemed to think that the flavor fakeclaims mentioned in the setup post would involve appropriate role fakeclaims.
I have been keeping an eye on claims, and every claim and flip up to now shows that flavor and role is closely corrolated.
I do not think it is worth more flavorclaiming to check this already claimed roles. I see andrew just did, I say yuma should not.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 1 start!)
« Reply #1093 on: April 09, 2014, 12:41:58 pm »

If we had time (we don't), someone could figure out if these claims match the flavor.

This was from right before deadline.  Is this still worth doing with the other claims?  Andrew seemed to think that the flavor fakeclaims mentioned in the setup post would involve appropriate role fakeclaims.

I don't see why not. Otherwise a mass flavorclaim would catch scum. There's certainly enough characters. But anyway...

I'm Nynaeve. If you're not familiar with the WOT series, Nynaeve is able to channel but only when she's angry. Thus when someone targets me I get angry, I channel, and I both doctor and roleblock whoever I target.

Well, that was certainly my guess.  Nynaeve is the strongest healer so doctor fits.  She's also extremely strong with the One Power and was the one that ended up shielding and "enslaving" a Forsaken, so Roleblock fits too.  And your explanation of lashing out and doing both when targeted fits as well.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1094 on: April 09, 2014, 12:44:30 pm »

Re-ordered...

Most active --- ashersky, yuma, Andrew, TA, witherweaver, Jimmmmm, Archetype, Xeiron, ADK, Xerxes --- least active

I think we will find most scum in the lower half of the post count.

I could easy see Jimmm or ADK as scum, and I have no better than null-reads on xerxes and Archetype.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1095 on: April 09, 2014, 12:45:37 pm »

Didn't even think of the healing and Moghedian aspects. Nice.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1096 on: April 09, 2014, 12:48:57 pm »

Didn't even think of the healing and Moghedian aspects. Nice.

Well if you would have said almost anyone else with the Doctor role, I would have jumped on you.  I mean technically it fits any Aes Sedai, but why put it on anyone that isn't Nynaeve?
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1097 on: April 09, 2014, 12:52:49 pm »

I just finished Fires of Heaven so I don't even think Nynaeve has done much healing yet but that's ok, I don't mind spoilers.
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Witherweaver

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1098 on: April 09, 2014, 12:59:20 pm »

I just finished Fires of Heaven so I don't even think Nynaeve has done much healing yet but that's ok, I don't mind spoilers.

It's hinted upon in the earlier novels.  She was the Wisdom of their village, which is a natural kind of caregiver/doctor position.  At least someone knowledgeable about herbs and such.  And Nynaeve was always naturally good at it.  It's revealed early on (when you find out she can Channel), that she was so good at it because she instinctively used the One Power.  You eventually find out she is quite uber at it.

Anyway, we're off topic.
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xeiron

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Re: RMM13: Wheel of Time Mafia! (Day 2 start!)
« Reply #1099 on: April 09, 2014, 01:32:48 pm »

My scumpartners, not my parents.
The theory here is that you do not need three persons to cast suspicion on one guy. Actually one is probably to much unless there actually is something suspicious to point out.

In this case I think you are acting sucpicious, because I have problems with seeing your town motive for claiming. Why claim D1, when you apparently have no plan of using your power in the near future?

Ha... totally misread that. Ok I see what you are saying. But keep in mind that you can't coordinate--unless there is daytalk--it because I claimed right off the bat day1. So I guess you are saying that you would have sat back and seen what your partners would have done. If they had attacked me you woulnd't have. If they hadn't you would have?

As for the rest... I claimed because I felt it was the best move. 1. It provided town with what I consider to be a pseduo-IC for all intents and purposes. Someone to trust and rely upon. Not a perfect IC I admit, but for me to be scum I would either have to be lying--unlikely I think you will admit--or scum with the power I said I had--even more unlikely I think you will admit. So while I never sought complete IC status, part of my reasoning was that I expected--and saw--that most people would believe me and would respond positively to my suggestions and ideas 2. there was no drawback... as I believe I am a PR that is expendeble. My power is more often negative utiltiy than positive and if I died I didn't think it would be a big loss. However, it also created a WIFOM situation for scum to decide if I was worth a NK--I kinda hoped I would take in a NK last night, but that wasn't the case.

As for not having a plan to use my power. Who says I don't have a plan. Perhaps my criteria for such a situation where my plan would work hasn't bee fulfilled yet. I might use my power in the future, I might not, it depends on what happens in the game itself.

OK, I can see that it makes kind of sense for you to do as you did as town. And I admit that it is unlikely that you are lying, and even more unlikely that you are scum with daykill. It is like Ashersky said it:

Here is a question for anyone that wants to answer it:

Hypothetically if you are scum how do you respond to me claiming dayvig (and thus you as scum would know I am telling the truth)?

Do you subtly cast suspicion on me in an attempt to make sure I don't get IC status or do you basically "believe" my claim and cast no suspicion my way?

Not sure what you're looking to get out of this question.  I like it as a theory discussion, but in game you have to expect any number of answers that probably won't tell you anything useful.

Honestly, it's such a confirmable claim (all day powers are) that everyone needs to believe it until you can't confirm it, and then you get lynched. Because of that, it's very unlikely to be a fakeclaim from scum.  I think scum wants to push you to shoot at a time that is most opportune for them -- that is, when you are espousing bad reads (which you wouldn't know are bad).

Has anyone stuck out to you as particularly worried about your reads of them?  I think scum are going to be a bit more jumpy than they would normally be about your reads if they are accurate because it isn't about beating a wagon, it's about beating you head to head.

But the question here is, If you do not shoot anybody, how long do we wait before we conclude that you cannot confirm you claim, and lynch you. Three days. Four? I am not comfortable with waiting  much more that today.

Yuma, I think you are bold enough as scum to try just something like claiming dayvig and try to get away with it for as long as you can. And what worries me is that you are in a ridiculous good situation if you are scum. As a semi-IC you have quite a lot influence on who we lynch, Including pretty much removing yourself from the lynchpool. It means that you could probably get yourself and your teammates safely to D3 (only fearing any third party). And even if we lynch you tomorrow, your teammates are quite good off.

That is why it would ease my mind if you shoot someone today.
I would also like to hear from everyone. How many days should we wait before yuma have to prove his claim or be lynched? 
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