oh hey, this game...
well, I'm still not 100% sold on either case at all. I support no lynch.
however, I am a bit worried about people making this a TA-or-Ash thing, I could see them both being town for sure. props to eevee for looking elsewhere, even if it is in the wrong place, at me.
I think TA is more likely to be scum than Ash. And that's not so much that ash's case is great, it's more that I now have a bit of a townread on ashersky, and I think I have read him well in the past. The townread is because, well, he's being crazy. And really, he isn't as insane as scum. look at mean girls. sure, he fakeclaimed, but that's a different type of crazy, that's just good strategy. here, I don't think scum!ash would react so strongly to TA, because he would know that it would turn it into a me-or-him thing like it did. And I DO think that a lot of ash's case on TA is based off of him being frustrated at TA for incorrectly finding him scummy. So I'm not sold on lynching TA either, but I do need to look at the case again, I may have misrepresented it here.
I don't know why raerae has been so free of suspicion, she hasn't done anything particularly towny, and has been a bit in the background, like raerae in bankers. raerae is usually more loud.
so in regard to TA-Ash, I think from most likely to least likely:
ash town, TA town
ash town, TA scum
ash scum, TA scum (could have easily been staged, yes?)
ash scum, TA town.