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[nkirbit]

I'm still happy with voting Ahoppy at this point.

Vote: Ahoppy, to reiterate, although I think I was already there.

[chairs]

Given that we've got all the crazy role stuff happening I hesitate to throw down my vote until we're as sold on a lynch as we're going to get, but I'd be okay with lynching Ahoppy.

[Twistedarcher]

Given that we've got all the crazy role stuff happening I hesitate to throw down my vote until we're as sold on a lynch as we're going to get, but I'd be okay with lynching Ahoppy.

Fair enough. I would like to see town move forward though, we are stuck in neutral it seems.

[Eevee]

Could someone explain "the paper" thing? I guess why it makes a difference alignment-wise.

[theorel]

Unofficial Vote Count

xeiron (1) theorel
chairs (1) AHoppy
Twistedarcher (1) shraeye
AHoppy (2) Twistedarcher, nkirbit

Not Voting (3)  xeiron, chairs, Eevee


Regarding the paper thing, paper gives opportunity for double-vote (by the combo of xeiron-chairs-shraeye all essentially confirming it).  Double-vote seems unlikely as a scum-given power to share around, because it would overpower scum.  While potentially reasonable as a starting power, as a reproducible power it's overkill for scum.  So, as long as it's true then chairs would need to be town.

There's also the supposition that shraeye is town because otherwise scum would have quick-hammered someone.

[Eevee]

Okay, thanks. I understood it correctly then.

Well, I'm fine with giving chairs a town pass, at least for today. Shraeye to a lesser extent (maybe scum hasn't online at the same time? maybe the votes have fallen so that it would have been awkward to try it?)

It all seems to PoE into theorel and Ahoppy then.

Looking at TA, theorel, Ahoppy, nkirbit, nkirbit and TA feel significantly townier than the other two.

[Twistedarcher]

Here's why you should vote Ahoppy:

1) Was on the mail-mi wagon.

2) Was the alternative wagon, and most of the people alive were on the Ahoppy wagon to end the day, not the Ahoppy wagon. Now that I think Shraeye is more likely town, the move towards the mail-mi wagon and not towards the Ahoppy wagon, when the cases on both were relatively weak, is even more suspicious. There's 100% scum misdirection here. Ahoppy, and his partners (out of Xeiron/Eevee/Theorel/Nkirbit/Chairs), assuming Shraeye is town, made a conscious decision to move towards a town member rather than towards Ahoppy. Even if Shareye is scum, that's 2 remaining scum members who moved towards mail-mi rather than to Ahoppy. That was a scum-driven wagon, and it's a scum-driven wagon that chose to hit mail-mi rather than hitting Ahoppy.

3) All of the reasons from the D1 case on him -- now, these weren't the greatest reasons or the best case, but they're not insignificant, either. The case Shraeye / Raerae made pointed out some scummy things he did.

4) He came out today against Chairs, someone else that I now think is town after the paper-claim.

5) He was in favor of the massclaim, something that would possibly help scum more than town, despite the fact that it was directed by the person he was voting for

[Twistedarcher]

Oh one more that I just thought of:

The Ahoppy wagon got to 3 votes, with TA, Eevee, Nkirbit. Eevee and Nkirbit are two people who I have towny reads on, although it wouldn't surprise me if Nkirbit turned up scum. Still, though, that's I think one of the best chances we have to get 3 townies on a wagon. No one else was willing to join on, despite several people stating that they found Ahoppy scummy. Scum's not going to bus here unless they're absolutely forced to. I think, if Ahoppy were town, scum would try to hop on and force that lynch through. But no one else hopped on, leading me to believe Ahoppy is scum, and his partners were absolutely not jumping on.

[nkirbit]

I support TA's points here.  Don't really have anything new to add.

[Twistedarcher]

Official Vote Count, Please

[Twistedarcher]

There's also the supposition that shraeye is town because otherwise scum would have quick-hammered someone.

I think this is mostly true, but there's the possibility that Ahoppy and Shraeye are both scum, so Shraeye never really had the opportunity to quick hammer him. But this would also be true if Ahoppy were scum and Shraeye town, so I'd much rather go after Ahoppy.

[Archetype]

Sorry, guys. Was on mobile yesterday and couldn't do an accurate vote count. Thank you theorel!

Vote Count 2.3

xeiron (2) theorel, AHoppy
Twistedarcher (1) shraeye
AHoppy (2) Twistedarcher, nkirbit

Not Voting (3)  xeiron, chairs, Eevee
With 8 alive you need 5 to lynch. The day will end on July 23rd.

[chairs]

Dammit, TA, why do you always feel so towny to me?

Are there any games I can go read over where you were scum?

[Twistedarcher]

Dammit, TA, why do you always feel so towny to me?

Are there any games I can go read over where you were scum?

Monty python blitz is the only game I've been scum

[Twistedarcher]

I think it's particularly interesting that Shraeye was voting Ahoppy yesterday, was complaining that no one was looking at Ahoppy today, yet when a wagon actually started on Ahoppy, he declined to join it, at least initially.

[shraeye]

I think it's particularly interesting that Shraeye was voting Ahoppy yesterday, was complaining that no one was looking at Ahoppy today, yet when a wagon actually started on Ahoppy, he declined to join it, at least initially.

Yes, I am still in the middle of rereads and really want to try take a stab at the larger picture together before focusing on a lynch today.  I don't like that you are saying it's "interesting" that I decided not to put AHoppy at L-1 in a mylo scenario before reading more thoroughly.

[Twistedarcher]

I think it's particularly interesting that Shraeye was voting Ahoppy yesterday, was complaining that no one was looking at Ahoppy today, yet when a wagon actually started on Ahoppy, he declined to join it, at least initially.

Yes, I am still in the middle of rereads and really want to try take a stab at the larger picture together before focusing on a lynch today.  I don't like that you are saying it's "interesting" that I decided not to put AHoppy at L-1 in a mylo scenario before reading more thoroughly.

I certainly do think it's interesting that you have been probably the biggest proponent of lynching Ahoppy, yet you have declined to really even comment on his wagon

[theorel]

Oh, hey, my vote count was wrong, because official vote count 2.2 was wrong.  (I realized when TA was talking about AHoppy following xeiron's plan to claim while voting for him).

AHoppy's last vote was for xeiron.

[Archetype]

Oh, hey, my vote count was wrong, because official vote count 2.2 was wrong.  (I realized when TA was talking about AHoppy following xeiron's plan to claim while voting for him).

AHoppy's last vote was for xeiron.

Fixed!

[Twistedarcher]

Why is this game so dead?

[xeiron]

I received this message last night.

It’s [redacted]. I’m a mailman, write 1 player nightly. Wrote mail-mi N0. Now, have a [redacted] (NO idea what it’s for). My items a telephone. Sending you 1 tonight. It doesn’t work alone though, you must combine it with something else (no idea what…)

Another reason why I think Xeiron is scum.  Does it make sense for pen to be in the game, when we already have a telephone, that would presumably be used for sending messages?  What else can pen be used for?  Do we think there are multiple combinations that create a mailman?

At some point in the near future, I'm going to go recap all of the reasons why I think Xeiron is scum.

I have been thinking about this claim, and what to make of it for some time now.
First some theory. There are four possibilities: I could be sent from a town player to town !nkirbit, from town to scum, scum to town and scum to scum.
Scum to scum would be pointless concerning information as they can already send each other as much info as they want in their QT during night. It could still be done for towncred, though.
If this is scum to town, scum would need a good reason to justify giving such information to a townmember.
A town sender would not know if nkirbit is town or scum, so town to town and town to scum can mostly be treated the same.

I have had a townread on nkirbit for some time based on these posts.

Stop speculating about set up information!  Ahoppy, your post provided me with info I didn't have before I read it, and we shouldn't be making posts like these.  They leak info!  I'm probably leaking info right now!

If we want to claim, so be it, but I think we should stop talking about theory until we make that decision, because otherwise we're just going to be unknowingly leaking a steady stream of info.

The information that I believe he possesses is information I think is likelier for a town to have than scum.  But if scum had the info, they would have shared it N0, so I'm not quite sure if town is likelier to have it than 3 scum players.

What.  Those two sentences say directly contradictory things. You think town is likelier to have it according to #1.  But in #2, you say taht you are not sure if town is likelier to have it than a scumteam.

Previously, I had said that any one town member is likelier to have the info than any one scum member, and that's true.  But the thing I hadn't considered previously is that scum will be sharing their info N0.... so I am unsure upon considering that whether having that info would likelier indicate town or scum.

He says this like it's no big deal if we lynch a PR.  It still is, especially if it's a super powerful role like cop or doctor.  Additionally, EFHW brought up at some point that most of our roles are probably going to be 1-shot based on the fact that we can create our own PR's.  People thought this meant that our PR's we create are going to be 1-shot.  While this makes a lot of sense, I think it's more important to note that most of our initial PR's are probably 1-shot.  If we're able to give ourselves a PR every night, I feel like an unlimited PR would be way OP. This being said, if ash is an investigative role, I'm not sure he would use up his 1 shot night 0.  This also includes losing whatever item(s) ash is capable of giving away.  Long story short, I don't like how unconcerned xerion is with a mislynch. 

Why did you decided to use your one shot cop on N0?

1. So I could send items to someone right from the start knowing they are town. (If they showed scum I would have them lynched D1)
2. To get a reliable read, as I believe any redirectors, framers or other roles that messes with results would be more likely to appear later in the game if they exists in this game at all. In RMM7 scum won by messing with the cop.
3. I hoped I would get other fancy roles to use later in the game.

Ahoppy seems to believe that if one has a one-shot power, then they lose the ability to send items.  This reads to me as something Ahoppy knows, and not merely speculation.  Xeiron claims to be one-shot, yet still be able to send items after using his power.

I think this is worth discussing.

This episode seems to appear from some misconceptions nkirbit have that he would not have if nkirbit was scum. Scum !nkirbit would hardly forget that the scumteam could talk N0, and it is likely that either he or one of his scumbuddies would have a one-shot initial role. I also do not think scum would bother pointing out when someone is revealing to much information.
This episode could have been staged by nkirbit, but the timing with the reveal a week later caused by my claim (meaning nkirbit had no control over it) and the conclusion that it was actually nothing at all, seem to me very hard to fake.

So if Nkirbit is town, my first thought was that the telephone sender (lets call him Bell, as I seem to recall Alexander Graham Bell invented the phone) was town as well. But after some investigation (asking Eevee) there seems to be difficult to find any townmembers that could possibly be Bell.

Then let's assume that Bell is scum. It have lately occured to me that scum to scum actually makes sense. Remember that Nkirbit claimed this as a part of his case on me. It could be that scum talked about it in their QT and then had the letter sendt just so that Nkirbit could use it as point when pushing my lynch today. That would explain why the letter is so short. It basicly sais "I am a mailman that does not use pen and paper. Here is a telephone", There are some more info there, but no reads. Like why was nkirbit chosen as the recipient? Why was mail-mi? Was this town-reads based or is there some other reason?
It could also be that scum !Bell sent this to town !nkirbit using the same resoning.

Anyway I think Bell is scum.
Does someone want to claim being this person now?

 

[xeiron]

Speaking of background players, Theorel hasn't posted in like 60 hours.  Is he V/LA or something?

When reading Nkirbit I also noticed this from D1.
It could be a coincidence, or it could mean Nkirbit is paying extra attention to Theorel because they are on a scumteam.

[shraeye]

Theorel:

(-) His first post is a long post (here) which to me basically says "can we discuss items? thanks".

(0+) But when talking about items and claims, he points out that

I think that extreme positions are detrimental to town.

and I agree with this.  His next post as well differentiates theory from scum-hunting.  Theo is known for exploring theory, but it looks like he also wants to get into scumhunting when avenues for advantage have been explored.

(0-) He does take some time to jump into scumhunting, but I think he was one of the first players to start putting out reads on all the players.  Here is the first reads post (link). Nothing seems super suspicious here to me, except perhaps that theorel seems to be relying on players' metas more than I recall him doing other times.  It's not like there's much to go on at this point, I suppose.  One thing that seems odd is his read on AHoppy (which initially is "i don't remember him, score=27, which was one of the higher scores he gave in that post) but then 4 posts down he said

Okay, looked back at Ahoppy.  He's been posting a good bit actually, and I was right about it being him calling out lurkers.  It looks like he's been trying to engender discussion.  So, I'm going to drop his scumScore to 22.

That's a big drop in scum score, and I find it surprising that theorel wouldn't have looked back through the 10 or so pages we had made before making his list in the first place.

(0-)Next, theorel defends me twice in the discussion with EFHW; I think he is a bit overly-soothing in his tone, but sometimes that comes from town. (link here)

(-)This post sits uneasily with me

I'm not quite able to put my finger on it, but I feel like it's just very speculative (trying out many different theories, allowing him to choose whichever gains traction. This is in addition to him saying that he really doesn't find anybody worth pushing or saving at all.  Then ending with "hey, ash/Eevee...maybe there's something there, but I haven't found it".  Really this whole post yells "hey I'm a blank slate, try to convince me".  It's the type of reactive scumhunting that is easier for scum to fake, as opposed to the proactive hunting of searching out a player's inconsistencies and asking critical questions.

(+) Later theorel engages in exactly the type of proactive hunting I'm talking about (this post and the next).  He comes down with firm opinions on the various debates, and then asks AHoppy to clarify his positions.

(0+) xeiron had called theorel out for not scumhunting, and his reaction seems to be genuine to me.  I think people gave theorel flak about the "finally understand my scumread" line, but sometimes that happens to me.  I have a gut reaction that I just have a tough time putting words to, and then something will happen and I'll be able to clearly explain what I was feeling.

Oh, and I think I finally understand my scum-read.  It's not significant, but he basically called me out for not scumhunting, in the midst of a post where I was trying to understand player interactions, due to a calculation that I made.  Meanwhile, he was NOT scumhunting (except arguably by pointing out a supposed scumslip I made).  I understand that different players have different approaches, but his calling me out on it seems insincere given his own lack of any apparent scumhunting, excepting a couple town reads.  He says raerae isn't his strongest scum-read, but I have yet to see a scum-read from him (other than a problem with my post, when I was previously a town-read for him...not sure if I switched to a scum-read, he didn't really specify).  In short, Xeiron seems more interested in challenging others for failing to scumhunt than scumhunting himself.

Vote: Xeiron

(-) But his next post (link here) that caught my eye was one where it really looked like he was waffling on xeiron, after having made his mind up already.  This wavering looks like it was just for show, basically.  Also in this post, he is the first to push towards a lynch for the sake of ending the day.  The day was super long, but also, I feel like this "get any lynch, jeez!" attitude is what led to mail-mi being a snapwagon with no chance to claim.  Yes, we were eating up bankable time, but if we need it, then we need it.  In his next few posts (on the same page) he debates the merits of each lynch and ends up choosing Eevee, but reminds us that he still supports lynching xeiron. 

In day 2, theorel goes deep into pair analysis, but he keeps approaching from a position where he assumes that one of me/Twisted must be scum.  Based on my read of him thusfar, I am skeptical of his analysis.

(0-) In this posts' conclusion he wavers on AHoppy; Twisted pointed this out in the post immediately after and asked theorel to clarify.

I went back and reviewed the AHoppy case.  I still think it was weak, and that ultimately it was about his lurking.  Here's the case as I understand it:

-AHoppy talked theory early on, while noting that we should probably get to scumhunting.  While "real scumhunting" was going on.  I was there, I was talking theory, I don't think scumhunting was really going on.  There were two "non-RVS" claimed votes, and maybe the thing between shraeye and efhw at that time?  That was as much transition-out-of-RVS stuff as the theory talk was.

-AHoppy is away a lot, and pops up when his name is mentioned.  i.e. he's lurking.

-He said he would reread in the evening, and then come evening, he said he was starting to reread, and then 3 hours later, he posted stuff about it.  Then a day later, he finished the reread and started posting reads and contributing more.

I said yesterday that this was a null case.  I hold that this was a null case.  It's not as bad as ashersky's case on efhw was, because, yeah he was lurking, and that's a case.  But it is in no way compelling, and I'm frankly not surprised that people who thought it was a weak case yesterday aren't bringing it up.

Now, today, AHoppy has attacked chairs a bit, and threatened to vote for xeiron.  That could be suspicious if he's going for easy cases, or it could be town looking at the most suspicious things that have happened this game.

The conclusion that theorel gives when Twisted asks him to give his full opinion of AHoppy is

Schrodinger's Cat.  I don't know which it is, and make no attempt to say it is one or the other.

If someone does something which only makes sense for scum, then they are a lot scummier for it, but technically they could be doing something as town that just doesn't make sense.  (Town does this sometimes anyways, some players more than others)

If someone does something that can make sense as town or as scum, then they're slightly scummier for it.  It makes sense either way, but if you do lots of things that makes sense for scum, well that's what scum does.

If someone does something that only makes sense for town, then they're townier for it.  Sometimes scum does these things, but ultimately if we find people scummy for being pro-town then we're defeating ourselves.

which basically just defines WIFOM.  Well that's not really helpful.  This is the second odd connection between AHoppy/theorel, so I'm inclined to think that theorel is scum => Ahoppy is scum.

[xeiron]

I have made another count of all the votes cast during in the game. RVS are excluded.

Cumulative Vote Count 2.0
key:
Player voted for(accumulated unique votes/accumulated votes) - Voting player1(vote nr.), Voting player2(vote nr.), etc
-! = hammer

Ashersky (1/1) - mail-mi(7&10)
Eevee (8/13) - mail-mi(6), aHoppy(8 ), Ashersky(15), Mail-mi(16), EFHW(35), aHoppy(38), Theorel(39), Twistedarcher(42), Nkirbit(43), Chairs(45), Chairs (46), Mail-mi(47), Nkirbit(50)
Xeiron (8/10) - Raerae(5), Shraeye(19), mail-mi(21), NKirbit(25), raerae(27), Theorel(29), EFHW(59), Nkirbit(62), Ahoppy(68), Theorel(72)
Raerae(2/2) - Ashersky(1), Xeiron(4)
Mail-mi(8/10) - Ashersky(13), Ashersky(17), Xeiron(48), Eevee(49), EFHW(55), Ahoppy(56), Nkirbit(57), Ashersky(58), Theorel(60), Chairs(61-!)
Twistedarcher(4/4) - Nkirbit(19), Chairs(22), Eevee(24), Shraeye(67)
Chairs(2/2) - raerae(12), Ahoppy(64)
Shraeye(5/7) - TA(2), Chairs(3), EFHW(9), Theorel(18), Chairs(63), Theorel(65), Eevee(66)
Ahoppy(6/11) - eevee(32), shraeye(36), raerae(37), Twistedarcher(40), Raerae(44), Nkirbit(51), Chairs(52), Twistedarcher(53), Twistedarcher(69), Eevee(70), Nkirbit(71)
EFHW(5/6) - Shraeye(11), Ashersky(26), mail-mi(33), eevee(34), nkirbit(41), mail-mi(54)
Spiritbears(2/2) - TwistedArcher(14&28), Nkirbit(20)
Nkirbit(0/0) -
Theorel(0/0) -
No-lynch(2/2) - Xeiron(28), EFHW(30)

[chairs]

People still alive:

Eevee / Xeiron / TwistedArcher / chairs / shraeye / Ahoppy / theorel / nkirbit

I know I'm town, right now I strongly suspect shraeye, Xeiron, and TwistedArcher are town, so that leaves me with

Eevee / Ahoppy / theorel / nkirbit

Out of this group, I think one of Eevee or nkirbit is the townie, which means that both Ahoppy and theorel are scum.