Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 89 90 [91] 92 93 ... 106  All

Author Topic: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware -- GAME OVER, SCUM WIN  (Read 224163 times)

0 Members and 5 Guests are viewing this topic.

Jimmmmm

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1762
  • Shuffle iT Username: Jimmmmm
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2250 on: April 30, 2013, 01:49:22 am »

Sounds like scum have the Platinum key. Wonderful.
Logged

Insomniac

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 785
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2251 on: April 30, 2013, 02:03:03 am »

Insom (and I think Eevee, I'm not sure) agreed with it too.

And, as I said, lekkit's case was part of my case.

I did indeed, but I also had a case on ash of my own previously.
Logged
"It is one of [Insomniacs] badges of pride that he will bus anyone, at any time, and he has done it over and over on day 1. I am completely serious, it is like the biggest part of his meta." - Dsell

Jorbles

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1468
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2252 on: April 30, 2013, 02:26:38 am »

I think it's most likely that Arch named the two Townies who he thought were the two least likely mislynches, with the intent of killing us off the next two nights. It's possible he named 1 teammate, but I think it's most likely that he didn't.

I don't know if I agree with that. When Arch got caught in lolcats he went through a lot of work to create a fake QT to try and cast confusion onto the game. When he did that he put in some townies, but he did include one of his partners (it was ash I think). I think archetype would have tried to clear one of his partners here. If I had to guess I would lean towards it being Jimmmm.

A small bit of evidence, but something I noticed. Does this exchange seem a little forced to anyone else?

Well finally.

Are you scum who completely fooled me?

Nope.

Anyhow I at least half agree with Insomniac's read on the situation.

I'm leaning towards thinking ash/Jimmmm, but I can't rule out ash/raerae.

However, I think ash is our best bet. What do people think of lynching ash and we sorting out Jimmmm and raerae tomorrow?

Or am I getting too ahead of myself? I don't know if anyone but me and Insomniac believe that Archetype would try to clear one of his partners.
Logged

sudgy

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3431
  • Shuffle iT Username: sudgy
  • It's pronounced "SOO-jee"
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2253 on: April 30, 2013, 02:29:12 am »

I'm not sure if Arch would clear his partners...
Logged
If you're wondering what my avatar is, watch this.

Check out my logic puzzle blog!

   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

Jorbles

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1468
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2254 on: April 30, 2013, 10:24:10 am »

Here's one other thing to think about, we all seem to suspect ash. Do we believe his partner is busing him?
Logged

Jimmmmm

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1762
  • Shuffle iT Username: Jimmmmm
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2255 on: April 30, 2013, 11:39:00 am »

Jorbles' comments on me have come across as a bit ingenuine.

I still don't think Jimmmm is cleared btw.

Maybe there isn't much in this, but no one was saying that I was cleared. ash went out of his way to point out that Eevee and I aren't cleared based on the sudgy thing, which I agreed with, and not even I've said that Arch "clearing" me and raerae actually clears us.

Jimmmm still feels scummy to me, but this could be residual from previously suspecting him. His voting has been scummy in a way similar to Archetypes. I could see him as scum.

A bit hedgy here, like he's trying to get a feel for how people will take the idea.

Thank you raerae. Btw, isn't it sort of interesting people who suspected Jimm have been killed off and it's just his heaviest (?) supporters left?

Makes me a bit uncomfortable to be honest...

I've suspected Jimmmm on and off most of the game. I still suspect him, and which Jimmmm detractors have been killed off and when?

Again points out his previous "suspicions" of me, and asks others to do the work to make a case on me.
(I'll just take this opportunity to point out that in the recent blitz game in which I was scum I killed the ICs who had been supporting me in mcmc and mail-mi ahead of non-ICs who had been suspecting me, going so far as taking spiritbears who was sure I was scum, and shraeye who was sure spiritbears was Town to the final three with me, instead of mail-mi, who had said we should lynch just about everyone else before me. Not solid evidence, of course, but it's there.)

I still dont see any concrete information we would get from your flip. None! I would be able to deduct you from my suspect pool, but that holds true for any other lynch.

I have hard time believing you could actually want to be the lynch as town, so your self-vote reads insincere to me. Scum is insincere. I don't claim to KNOW you are scum, I was pretty darn sure in helsinki mafia and you were town. I dont think your actions today are helping us find the real scum if you are town, though.

What information could we get from lynching anyone at this point? The only info I can think we could get from lynching anyone would be if we lynched Jimmmm because if he was scum we could see who didn't hammer him when he was at L-1 before. That's not enough info for me to lynch someone. I can't think of any other concrete info we'd get from a lynch that favours lynching one player over another.

Brings up the idea of lynching me for information, but concludes that's "not enough", as if that was his only argument on me.

Anyway, all of that were things I noticed, but not the main point of this post. What led to this post was the following:

I think it's most likely that Arch named the two Townies who he thought were the two least likely mislynches, with the intent of killing us off the next two nights. It's possible he named 1 teammate, but I think it's most likely that he didn't.

I don't know if I agree with that. When Arch got caught in lolcats he went through a lot of work to create a fake QT to try and cast confusion onto the game. When he did that he put in some townies, but he did include one of his partners (it was ash I think). I think archetype would have tried to clear one of his partners here. If I had to guess I would lean towards it being Jimmmm.

Something about this seems off to me. It's like Jorbles is trying to start from scratch and conclude that I am suspicious. The whole "If I had to guess" seems fake when he's already been arguing that I'm suspicious.

A small bit of evidence, but something I noticed. Does this exchange seem a little forced to anyone else?

Well finally.

Are you scum who completely fooled me?

Nope.

He calls this evidence, but I don't see it. ash's post was strange-ish, and I didn't fully understand what he meant at first, so I ended up assuming it basically meant, "Are you scum?" So I gave a meaningless answer to a meaningless question. But my first post had nothing to do with ash, and ash's post really had nothing to do with my post. So you could argue that ash's post is fake suspicion. Maybe it is, I don't know. I think it was meant as a joke regardless. But if you're trying to say that we were forcing an argument, we're both quite capable of arguing much more than that, for example when we actually argued about something substantial shortly after.

Anyhow I at least half agree with Insomniac's read on the situation.

I'm leaning towards thinking ash/Jimmmm, but I can't rule out ash/raerae.

However, I think ash is our best bet. What do people think of lynching ash and we sorting out Jimmmm and raerae tomorrow?

Or am I getting too ahead of myself? I don't know if anyone but me and Insomniac believe that Archetype would try to clear one of his partners.

He's now narrowed the list of possible scum down to three people. This worries me. It could be that the plan is to bus ash today, setting up the two mislynches that will win scum the game.

I hope I'm not being biased here based on knowing that one way or another he's wrong about me. He just feels a bit off to me.
Logged

Jorbles

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1468
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2256 on: April 30, 2013, 12:40:45 pm »



To clarify a bunch of things:

-I'm saying that I don't think you're cleared because other people seem to think that you are. Maybe not explicitly, but most people seem to think that you are fairly towny. I am saying that I do not.

-Jimmmm said that he thought that Arch was not trying to clear one of his scum mates, but just picking two players who were town to give himself some town cred. I think he was trying to clear one of his buddies, and the fact that Jimmmm was pushing the opposite argument made me think that it must be him.

-If it sounds like I'm building my case from scratch a bit it's because I tried to reset my reads and see if I still held them.

-It sounds like Jimmmm agrees that ash is probably scum and that ash's partner must be busing him though he think it's me busing ash, which is wrong. This would mean I bused every single one of my partners if I were scum which I think is ridiculous. I bring this up because we shouldn't lynch ash unless we think that his partner would bus him.
Logged

Jimmmmm

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1762
  • Shuffle iT Username: Jimmmmm
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2257 on: April 30, 2013, 06:59:48 pm »

-I'm saying that I don't think you're cleared because other people seem to think that you are. Maybe not explicitly, but most people seem to think that you are fairly towny. I am saying that I do not.

Okay, I guess cleared means two different things to us then.

Quote
-Jimmmm said that he thought that Arch was not trying to clear one of his scum mates, but just picking two players who were town to give himself some town cred. I think he was trying to clear one of his buddies, and the fact that Jimmmm was pushing the opposite argument made me think that it must be him.
[/quote.

I said I thought it was more likely. Admittedly that's one step easier for me to say than a Townie who doesn't know that I'm Town. But I was giving an opinion rather than pushing an argument, and concluding that I "must" be scum because of it is a step too far I think.

Quote
-If it sounds like I'm building my case from scratch a bit it's because I tried to reset my reads and see if I still held them.

I don't know, it just seems fake to me, like you're trying to appear to reset your reads making sure you arrive at the same conclusion.

Quote
-It sounds like Jimmmm agrees that ash is probably scum and that ash's partner must be busing him though he think it's me busing ash, which is wrong. This would mean I bused every single one of my partners if I were scum which I think is ridiculous. I bring this up because we shouldn't lynch ash unless we think that his partner would bus him.

I said, "It could be". It could also be that you're scum and both of ash and raerae are Town and you're trying to set up two mislynches out of three. It could be that you and raerae are scum. It could be you're Town. I wouldn't say I'm in a position to say that any particular scenario is probably true.
Logged

Jimmmmm

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1762
  • Shuffle iT Username: Jimmmmm
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2258 on: April 30, 2013, 07:01:17 pm »

Whoop, must preview before posting. Repost to fix quoting issues.

-I'm saying that I don't think you're cleared because other people seem to think that you are. Maybe not explicitly, but most people seem to think that you are fairly towny. I am saying that I do not.

Okay, I guess cleared means two different things to us then.

Quote
-Jimmmm said that he thought that Arch was not trying to clear one of his scum mates, but just picking two players who were town to give himself some town cred. I think he was trying to clear one of his buddies, and the fact that Jimmmm was pushing the opposite argument made me think that it must be him.

I said I thought it was more likely. Admittedly that's one step easier for me to say than a Townie who doesn't know that I'm Town. But I was giving an opinion rather than pushing an argument, and concluding that I "must" be scum because of it is a step too far I think.

Quote
-If it sounds like I'm building my case from scratch a bit it's because I tried to reset my reads and see if I still held them.

I don't know, it just seems fake to me, like you're trying to appear to reset your reads making sure you arrive at the same conclusion.

Quote
-It sounds like Jimmmm agrees that ash is probably scum and that ash's partner must be busing him though he think it's me busing ash, which is wrong. This would mean I bused every single one of my partners if I were scum which I think is ridiculous. I bring this up because we shouldn't lynch ash unless we think that his partner would bus him.

I said, "It could be". It could also be that you're scum and both of ash and raerae are Town and you're trying to set up two mislynches out of three. It could be that you and raerae are scum. It could be you're Town. I wouldn't say I'm in a position to say that any particular scenario is probably true.
Logged

sudgy

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3431
  • Shuffle iT Username: sudgy
  • It's pronounced "SOO-jee"
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2259 on: April 30, 2013, 07:46:06 pm »

Kooshie, aren't you not allowed to talk in code?  And what in the world is "head orbs" and why do I have them?
Logged
If you're wondering what my avatar is, watch this.

Check out my logic puzzle blog!

   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

raerae

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 96
  • Shuffle iT Username: raerae
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2260 on: April 30, 2013, 09:04:19 pm »

I just realized, we don't have a soft deadline yet.  Soft deadline, Friday at 12:00 AM.

Now, I think either scum bought the oracle, or the owner of the oracle got NKed.  I think liopoil had it and scum somehow knew he did (so that's why Arch claimed then).

Also, lynched people, you seem to be asking me something but I can't quite tell what it is you're asking me.  Could you try to say it a bit better?

I support this soft deadline.  Anybody else have thoughts on it?

Sudgy, did you get an answer to this question?
Logged

Eevee

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1010
  • Shuffle iT Username: Eevee
  • A wild Eevee appears!
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2261 on: April 30, 2013, 09:19:32 pm »

Fine with that soft dl. I dont think everyone has answered to my in my opinion informational question (why are you a bad lynch?). Insomniac, ashersky? Even jimmm? (Not sure)
Logged

sudgy

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3431
  • Shuffle iT Username: sudgy
  • It's pronounced "SOO-jee"
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2262 on: April 30, 2013, 09:35:41 pm »

I just realized, we don't have a soft deadline yet.  Soft deadline, Friday at 12:00 AM.

Now, I think either scum bought the oracle, or the owner of the oracle got NKed.  I think liopoil had it and scum somehow knew he did (so that's why Arch claimed then).

Also, lynched people, you seem to be asking me something but I can't quite tell what it is you're asking me.  Could you try to say it a bit better?

I support this soft deadline.  Anybody else have thoughts on it?

Sudgy, did you get an answer to this question?

Nope.
Logged
If you're wondering what my avatar is, watch this.

Check out my logic puzzle blog!

   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

Jimmmmm

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1762
  • Shuffle iT Username: Jimmmmm
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2263 on: April 30, 2013, 09:53:27 pm »

I agree with the soft deadline in principle, but I don't want it to be the case that suddenly it's here so we had better pick a lynch and go with it, as it has felt like before. Obviously best case is to decide on the best possible lynch by then, but I'd rather go a couple of days over for a good lynch than stick to the deadline by lynching badly.

Why am I Town? I guess my only answer to that is to compare my play this game to the two recent game in which I have been scum, both LoTR and the Blitz game. I have at different times prioritised each of those two games over this one, and I think played differently in those two from this one. Some people who have been with me in those games agree with me, while others who haven't don't.
Logged

sudgy

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3431
  • Shuffle iT Username: sudgy
  • It's pronounced "SOO-jee"
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2264 on: April 30, 2013, 09:54:48 pm »

I think most of us already agree ash is the best lynch.  We for now could say we'll lynch him when the deadline comes.
Logged
If you're wondering what my avatar is, watch this.

Check out my logic puzzle blog!

   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

Eevee

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1010
  • Shuffle iT Username: Eevee
  • A wild Eevee appears!
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2265 on: April 30, 2013, 09:58:51 pm »

I think most of us already agree ash is the best lynch.  We for now could say we'll lynch him when the deadline comes.
I'm a little less confident than I was.
Logged

Jimmmmm

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1762
  • Shuffle iT Username: Jimmmmm
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2266 on: April 30, 2013, 10:05:39 pm »

I'm not sure if ash is the best lynch. My problem with him is that if he's Town he was pushing for something explicitly anti-Town, and I don't see a reason for him to do that as Town, but I can imagine a reason for doing what he was doing as scum. But that's only based on Today's posts, I haven't had a chance to revisit his game as a whole yet. sudgy, why do you think ash is the best lynch?
Logged

sudgy

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3431
  • Shuffle iT Username: sudgy
  • It's pronounced "SOO-jee"
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2267 on: April 30, 2013, 10:13:56 pm »

Because I think he's scum.  The reason for that is that his play is so crazy I think he's doing it to draw attention to himself so he'll not have as much suspicion.
Logged
If you're wondering what my avatar is, watch this.

Check out my logic puzzle blog!

   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

sudgy

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3431
  • Shuffle iT Username: sudgy
  • It's pronounced "SOO-jee"
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2268 on: April 30, 2013, 10:33:50 pm »

@mail-mi: Your post 83.
Logged
If you're wondering what my avatar is, watch this.

Check out my logic puzzle blog!

   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

raerae

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 96
  • Shuffle iT Username: raerae
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2269 on: April 30, 2013, 10:44:32 pm »

Because I think he's scum.  The reason for that is that his play is so crazy I think he's doing it to draw attention to himself so he'll not have as much suspicion.

That's a good point.  Is it reasonable to think that Ash is drawing so much attention to himself to keep the spotlight off his partner?  If/when ash flips scum, I think we should consider looking at players who have been more reserved and quiet but slowly drawing suspicion over the past few days.  From my point of view, the most likely pool of suspects is Insom, Jimmmmmm, and myself (I'm town but I fit the bill so look at me too). 
Logged

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2270 on: April 30, 2013, 10:50:14 pm »

Because I think he's scum.  The reason for that is that his play is so crazy I think he's doing it to draw attention to himself so he'll not have as much suspicion.

Because this is an awesome way to play as scum.

Because I think he's scum.  The reason for that is that his play is so crazy I think he's doing it to draw attention to himself so he'll not have as much suspicion.

That's a good point.  Is it reasonable to think that Ash is drawing so much attention to himself to keep the spotlight off his partner?  If/when ash flips scum, I think we should consider looking at players who have been more reserved and quiet but slowly drawing suspicion over the past few days.  From my point of view, the most likely pool of suspects is Insom, Jimmmmmm, and myself (I'm town but I fit the bill so look at me too). 

Raerae's point is better.  I'd love to hear musings on my "partner."  I'm not scum, but have never been able to convince anyone of that, ever.

Fine with that soft dl. I dont think everyone has answered to my in my opinion informational question (why are you a bad lynch?). Insomniac, ashersky? Even jimmm? (Not sure)

I pressed HARD on Ozle for two days until he went VLA for good.  I fought with yuma over issues on D4.  Both ended up beign town.  What scum player does that?

Also, look at Archetype's lynch.  In the end, I agreed not to hammer in case the hammerer got extra benefits.  I was on, and could have hammered, and didn't.  And then, Archetype self-hammered.  If I'm scum, I either hammer for town points there, or Archetype lets my plan to have sudgy hammer go through so that I get town points for that.  Instead, Archetype hammered to end the day.  If we're together, that's some pretty crappy teamwork.

Meta-wise, any of the folks who have played often with me know that scum!ash is much better than this.  Look at my last few scum games.  And look at my last few town games.  I'm not scum here.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

Jimmmmm

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1762
  • Shuffle iT Username: Jimmmmm
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2271 on: April 30, 2013, 11:12:56 pm »

Because I think he's scum.  The reason for that is that his play is so crazy I think he's doing it to draw attention to himself so he'll not have as much suspicion.

Because this is an awesome way to play as scum.

I think your argument that it's a bad way to play as scum in invalid when it's a worse way to play as Town.
Logged

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2272 on: April 30, 2013, 11:36:48 pm »

Because I think he's scum.  The reason for that is that his play is so crazy I think he's doing it to draw attention to himself so he'll not have as much suspicion.

Because this is an awesome way to play as scum.

I think your argument that it's a bad way to play as scum in invalid when it's a worse way to play as Town.

Huh?

So my argument is invalid and it is in actuality good scum play?

Or my argument is invalid because, although it is bad scum play, it is also bad town play?  But then, my argument is right in that it is bad scum play anyway.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

raerae

  • Thief
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 96
  • Shuffle iT Username: raerae
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2273 on: April 30, 2013, 11:38:17 pm »

I've been rereading a bit and have found some interesting things regarding ash and arch (and even Kooshie!).  I'd like to finish this up and will post tomorrow evening but need some sleep now. 
Logged

Jimmmmm

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1762
  • Shuffle iT Username: Jimmmmm
    • View Profile
Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 5)
« Reply #2274 on: April 30, 2013, 11:48:27 pm »

Because I think he's scum.  The reason for that is that his play is so crazy I think he's doing it to draw attention to himself so he'll not have as much suspicion.

Because this is an awesome way to play as scum.

I think your argument that it's a bad way to play as scum in invalid when it's a worse way to play as Town.

Huh?

So my argument is invalid and it is in actuality good scum play?

Or my argument is invalid because, although it is bad scum play, it is also bad town play?  But then, my argument is right in that it is bad scum play anyway.

Your argument that you can't be scum because it's bad scum play doesn't work because it's worse Town play. You could say it's just bad play in general. But you are using it to try to convince us that you're Town, and if you're scum and succeed in doing so then it is, almost by definition, good scum play.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 89 90 [91] 92 93 ... 106  All
 

Page created in 0.125 seconds with 20 queries.