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[Jimmmmm]

Yep, no way Arch would claim having the Oracle if a Townie had it.

[raerae]

I mean, scum wouldn't self-vote this late in the game, right?  That would just be suicide, right? 

If I'm scum, who is my remaining partner?  And wouldn't he/she be furious with me?

I don't think your partner would be furious.  Especially not since I'm sure you cooked this up in QT last night.  The thing is, it's just crazy enough, just ash enough, to work.  But it didn't.  In my eyes, scum had to come in big and strong and really have a plan after Arch's royal flop yesterday.  You're doing something so outrageous that no town member, with the end-goal of actually winning, would ever contemplate.

[Jimmmmm]

I think it's most likely that Arch named the two Townies who he thought were the two least likely mislynches, with the intent of killing us off the next two nights. It's possible he named 1 teammate, but I think it's most likely that he didn't.

[Eevee]

Hmm, Jorbles-Insomniac?

ashersky's latest posts have felt less forced. This is a really freaking hard decision.

[ashersky]

I think it's most likely that Arch named the two Townies who he thought were the two least likely mislynches, with the intent of killing us off the next two nights. It's possible he named 1 teammate, but I think it's most likely that he didn't.

But then why kill yuma?  Why not stick to the plan?  I guess if he survived, it makes more sense.  Since he died, leaving his "targets" alive provides us with some wifom on why he chose them.

[ashersky]

I mean, scum wouldn't self-vote this late in the game, right?  That would just be suicide, right? 

If I'm scum, who is my remaining partner?  And wouldn't he/she be furious with me?

I don't think your partner would be furious.  Especially not since I'm sure you cooked this up in QT last night.  The thing is, it's just crazy enough, just ash enough, to work.  But it didn't.  In my eyes, scum had to come in big and strong and really have a plan after Arch's royal flop yesterday.  You're doing something so outrageous that no town member, with the end-goal of actually winning, would ever contemplate.

Except I've been the same me since Day 1.

[Eevee]

yuma could have been killed just because he is freaking scary from scum perspective. He has been getting nightkilled a lot lately.

[Insomniac]

Let's face it, mislynching today would be pretty disastrous for Town. We'd have to survive two lylos and will have an average of 2/5 * 1/3 = 2/15 chance of winning. But lynching scum today would not be that bad for scum, who would still have an average of 4/5 * 2/3 = 8/15 chance of winning. And scum knows if we're doing better or worse than average since they know if we're close to lynching one of them. So I think it's much more likely that scum would be willing to self-sacrifice for their team than Town.

This is compelling.  I suck at math, so I'll just trust it is correct.

unvote

Still, we need to lynch someone today.  Does scum still have over a 50 percent chance of winning even if they lose another player today?  That seems really high.

Yep. If we lynch scum today, the remaining scum will have an 80% chance of surviving tomorrow and then a 66.67% chance of surviving lylo for the win. Multiply these together and you get scum having a 53.33% chance of winning if we lynch one of them today. But in reality it will be higher or lower depending on how close the Townies are to finding the remaining scum, and only scum know that.

catching up at this post now. Still think ashersky is scummy, but scum names 1 partner here for sure, not both.

[Insomniac]

sudgy, was anything said in the captured folks QT that would have given Arch a hint as to the Oracle?  We were discussing possibilities yesterday.

Note Arch selected Jimmmmm and raerae to clear with his fake claim.  Does scum name a partner?  Both partners?

This is the post i meant to quote in the above post.

[Insomniac]

Caught up now. I like ash for a lynch. Of Jimmm/raerae the named I'd lean towards lynching raerae and away from lynching Jimmm as Jimmm seems townie to me here.

[Jimmmmm]

Let's face it, mislynching today would be pretty disastrous for Town. We'd have to survive two lylos and will have an average of 2/5 * 1/3 = 2/15 chance of winning. But lynching scum today would not be that bad for scum, who would still have an average of 4/5 * 2/3 = 8/15 chance of winning. And scum knows if we're doing better or worse than average since they know if we're close to lynching one of them. So I think it's much more likely that scum would be willing to self-sacrifice for their team than Town.

This is compelling.  I suck at math, so I'll just trust it is correct.

unvote

Still, we need to lynch someone today.  Does scum still have over a 50 percent chance of winning even if they lose another player today?  That seems really high.

Yep. If we lynch scum today, the remaining scum will have an 80% chance of surviving tomorrow and then a 66.67% chance of surviving lylo for the win. Multiply these together and you get scum having a 53.33% chance of winning if we lynch one of them today. But in reality it will be higher or lower depending on how close the Townies are to finding the remaining scum, and only scum know that.

catching up at this post now. Still think ashersky is scummy, but scum names 1 partner here for sure, not both.

Are you saying you think Arch named exactly 1 partner or at most 1?

[Insomniac]

I don't like the position Jorbles has been in this game as it doesn't give me a strong read on him which leaves me feeling a bit negative towards him, however I THINK I lean town on him. My key suspects are Ash/raerae. I'd plop a vote down for ash here but I don't want to rush anything yet.


PPE: I think Arch named exactly 1, and I don't think it's Jimmm

[Jimmmmm]

PPE: I think Arch named exactly 1, and I don't think it's Jimmm

So what happens if we lynch raerae and she flips Town?

[raerae]

Hopping on a plane and won't be around until tomorrow night sometime.  Not official v/la but still want ya'll to know.

[sudgy]

I just realized, we don't have a soft deadline yet.  Soft deadline, Friday at 12:00 AM.

Now, I think either scum bought the oracle, or the owner of the oracle got NKed.  I think liopoil had it and scum somehow knew he did (so that's why Arch claimed then).

Also, lynched people, you seem to be asking me something but I can't quite tell what it is you're asking me.  Could you try to say it a bit better?

[Jimmmmm]

I think it's most likely that Arch had it.

[Jimmmmm]

sudgy, so you have access to the dead QT but you can't post there?

[sudgy]

It's the lynched players QT, and I can not post there.

[Jimmmmm]

Oh lynched players. That's a lot less useful than scum-killed players I think. Have they had anything useful to say?

[sudgy]

Not much, lekkit gave me a bit of the case against ashersky, and Kooshie and Archetype have been saying random things trying to confuse/annoy me.

[Jimmmmm]

So that's Kooshie, mail-mi, Lekkit and Arch. Kooshie and Arch can provide WIFOM, but all you're really left with is mail-mi and Lekkit.

[Jimmmmm]

Do you agree with Lekkit's case against ash? Two confirmed Townies in agreement is pretty substantial.

[sudgy]

Insom (and I think Eevee, I'm not sure) agreed with it too.

And, as I said, lekkit's case was part of my case.

[sudgy]

Oh, reading back a bit, mail-mi thinks ash is scum too.

[sudgy]

Oh, something I totally forgot to ask: I went into a room, and a bunch of things were already bought there.  One of them was the Platinum Key.  Who bought it?  (I know that person might be dead, but who knows)

Oh, and also, lekkit said hello to you guys at the end of D4.