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Author Topic: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware -- GAME OVER, SCUM WIN  (Read 224122 times)

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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2025 on: April 24, 2013, 10:19:22 am »

I confirm that it cost $2 to enter a Gold room last night. Don't have time to say much more at the moment. Arch's claim seems suspicious.
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Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2026 on: April 24, 2013, 10:30:27 am »

I've been suspicious of Arch all game, and the holes in his claim make me think he must be scum. I say we lynch him and on the off chance that he flips town (I don't think that it's super likely now) we have two ICs (raerae, Jimmmm, and sudgy - 1 = 2)

The only thing that makes me think he might be telling the truth is that no one has counterclaimed him. Can someone who saw the Oracle verify the price of it, or his description of the rooms it was in?

(I would vote, but I don't want to give Arch the chance to quickhammer himself.)
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Insomniac

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2027 on: April 24, 2013, 11:51:02 am »

Havent fully caught up yet, but still suspicious of Ash and now Archetype, I will say that I can verify an Oracle has been purchased, although how someone had $8 on an early night like that is beyond me.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2028 on: April 24, 2013, 02:06:18 pm »

Alright here is everything on Archetype.

Let's start with the big one, his claim to be Oracle. I have already dissected this to show that he in fact never intended to include raerae in this post, again I will highlight the nouns and the singular words which he used to describe his investigation

I used an Oracle I investigated Jimmmmm two nights ago and he's Town. I almost came out with it yesterday, but Yuma was pushing it so hard I didn't feel comfortable about it. If you don't believe me, see my flipped read on him.

He next says this:

As much as I hate map claiming/information claiming, I guess I have to do it to save my own butt:

I bought it Night 2 in a Silver Room Next to a Gold Room and 2 Hallways. It cost $8 and I did not use it the night I bought it because I had no one I wanted to investigate. I used it the following night on Jimmmmm (to see if I was right about him) and Raerae (I was generally suspicious of her).

Like I said above, but will hopefully say a little bit clearer here, Arch:

1. bought Oracle Night 2 (as in the third night we had map actions). If this is the case, then he is caught in a lie. It is a lie because he said in the first quote that he used it, not last night (night 3) but the night before (night 2). But in the second quote he said that he bought it night 2 and didn't use it until the next night (night 3). If this is the case it is a lie.

2. bought Oracle Night 1 (as in the second night we had map actions) and used it Night 2. If this is the case, Archetype didn't buy it. Sparky did because sparky was still in the game. This would be a crucial piece to leave out of the claim and it is blatantly missing here. This claim fits the scenario (arch buying it night 1 and using it night 2 (two nights ago). But lacks the details necessary to make it believable about sparky.

2a. Furthermore for this to be true, sparky would have had to have had $8 Night1--enough to buy the Oracle, in addition to the $2 needed to enter into the Silver Room. I am highly skeptical that a player could have that much money that early into the game. I for one received no money that day as I already said. Sparky and I were in very similar positions that day, both on the lower side of posting, both off wagon. I do not see how he could come into $8 and I get none.

But let's look further at Arch's claim and other things.

I used it the following night on Jimmmmm (to see if I was right about him) and Raerae (I was generally suspicious of her).

So he says he used it on Jimmm to see if he was right about him:

Here is what arch has said about Jimmm:

Day2:
Quote
People I want to lynch:

Jorbles, Jimmmmm, or mail-mi

...

Jimmmmm: Sort of the same reason as Jorbles, except opposite. He's reached L-1 several times, but people keep drawing attention away from his lynch. He also pushed the mapclaiming-twice, something that I strongly feel shouldn't happen, and have said some pretty generally scummy things. He also got pretty angry about the wagon that was forming on him. And anger usually means scum.
Quote
In all honesty, Jimmmmm, I don't think I want to see you lynched today. You started out scummy earlier this day, but you've come around. I think that the Kooshie townread on you was suspicious and you bringing up map claiming is scummy, but that doesn't mean you're scum. Scum try to frame Town for things all the time.
Quote
Gah! I'd really rather lynch mail-mi today, and Jimmmmm on a later day, but fine. I'll vote: Jimmmmm to hurry this day up.
Day3:

He says nothing about Jimmm all of day3 (he only had 7 posts) contrary to what he says in his defense quote where he says that his reads had flipped on him.


Here is what arch has said about raerae:

Day2:
Quote
Pretty big townreads on Ozle, raerae, and ashersky.

...

raerae: Drove that Kooshie lynch all the way. I'd be very surprised if she was scum, but she's a fairly advanced player and knows a good bussing opportunity when she sees one.

Day3: Nothing, even after I had begun to present something of a case on her.

Day4: Immediately after he claimed he seemed surprised that I would roleblock raerae, implying that he wasn't suspicious of her.
Quote
Question for Yuma: Why did you roleblock Raerae instead of me? You said you were highly suspicion of me and my lurking all day, but you never roleblocked me when you could!?

Other things pertaining to the oracle:

Day3 he said this:
Quote
I'm going to go with Vote: Lekkit. He lurkied inMAII and was scum and I could see him doing it again. Him or Jorbles are my preferred lynches for today.

I think the owner of the Oracle should claim. There's nothing worse than a Cop dying knowing who's cleared of scum and even worse, who's scum. I also believe sudgy's claim, if he were scum, it would take just one move to find out if he was lying or not.

If arch was actually the town oracle, why would he go against what he said initially? He says here that Oracle should claim day3, but he doesn't and doesn't seem to care that there is the potential that he might die during the night (I will admit that it seems unlikely that Arch would be a good NK, but still there is always a chance... a weird mafia kill, a vig, something)

Also note that Arch did not claim Oracle when he came under intense scrutiny and was in danger of being lynched day3.

All of this makes me think that he decided to fabricate this lie during last night but apparently didn't fabricate it well enough to make it believable.

add in his scumminess of:

1. being off the kooshie wagon, but attempting to buss once it got started (as sparky)
2. being on both the mail-mi and lekkit wagons
3. being extremely lurky, probably more lurky than any other player in the game

I can't imagine a scenario where arch is town.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2029 on: April 24, 2013, 02:15:18 pm »

I bet it makes Town really want to come out and claim results knowing they will likely be lynched if they make even one small mistake.

A couple of things about this post, mostly theory talk, but I think it needs to be said.

1. Your premise is that if you are town and we lynch you it is our fault. This is false. If you are town, this one is on you. You made the mistake and would be reacting the same way as us if you were in our shoes.

2. Your premise that other PRs would be hesitant to claim is also false. If anything is to be learned from you flipping town it is that PRs should be more careful about the way that they format their claims and investigation results. PRs need to be absolutely sure that everything that goes into a claiming post is accurate and fully fleshed out and explained with zero holes. That is the lesson that would be learned if you were to turn up town.

3. You say you made one small mistake. Your mistake was not small. It was huge! It wasn't just one mistake either, it was multiple.

But like I said above, I can't conceive a scenario where you are town. So perhaps this whole post is moot. If anything this post is an attempt to appeal to emotion, another scumtell to add to the very long list above you.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2030 on: April 24, 2013, 02:32:06 pm »

Wow yeah. "I think the owner of the Oracle should claim." Which Townie actually says this if they're the owner of the Oracle. Sounds more like he was going to keep it hidden and then forgot that he said this and decided he wanted some Town cred.
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Jorbles

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2031 on: April 24, 2013, 03:52:36 pm »

Wow yeah. "I think the owner of the Oracle should claim." Which Townie actually says this if they're the owner of the Oracle. Sounds more like he was going to keep it hidden and then forgot that he said this and decided he wanted some Town cred.

Yeah, that's pretty bad. Does anyone not want to lynch him? I think this is a pretty slam dunk situation.

That said, we've got a bit of time to kill before Friday when we start eating into bankable time. Should we discuss who to lynch tomorrow? Archetype being scum makes me less suspicious of yuma because that's a pretty huge bus he was doing if it is. Barring some scenario where Archetype and yuma staged this it seems unlikely.
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sudgy

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2032 on: April 24, 2013, 04:37:06 pm »

Archetype said it was next to a gold room and two hallways.  It was next to three hallways, no gold rooms.  It did cost $8 though.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

yuma

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2033 on: April 24, 2013, 04:39:44 pm »

Wow yeah. "I think the owner of the Oracle should claim." Which Townie actually says this if they're the owner of the Oracle. Sounds more like he was going to keep it hidden and then forgot that he said this and decided he wanted some Town cred.

Yeah, that's pretty bad. Does anyone not want to lynch him? I think this is a pretty slam dunk situation.

That said, we've got a bit of time to kill before Friday when we start eating into bankable time. Should we discuss who to lynch tomorrow? Archetype being scum makes me less suspicious of yuma because that's a pretty huge bus he was doing if it is. Barring some scenario where Archetype and yuma staged this it seems unlikely.

well I think something to discuss either now or post lynch is what to make of raerae and jimmm if/when arch flips scum.

it is a tricky scenario because arch either put scum in the set of two or he didn't.

Let's say he didn't and raerae and jimmm are in fact town. This effectively makes two ICs out of raerae and Jimmm... at least for as long as archetype is alive they will be. This isn't what scum wants as they want to maintain a relatively high [ ] of potential mislynches within town. However, the plus side is that if Arch ever flips scum via a vig or a lynch, we as town might begin to suspect either raerae or jimmm and subsequently mislynch them.

On the other hand, let's say one of Jimmm or raerae (I would say both would be crazy... but who knows right?) is scum (let's say for this purpose that jimmm is the scum partner just for fun) and arch decided to include one in an attempt to not only get town credit for himself, but also for a partner. Here there is a very apparent risk, because this result is not only open to questioning if arch dies and flips scum, but can backfire severely if Jimmm is killed somehow and flips scum. Then town will immediately suspect arch for having a bad investigation result and appearing to protect a scum buddy.

Because of this I think raerae and jimmm mare both more likely to be town (but are not guaranteed to be so).

Also keep in mind that when arch made his initial claim he was only talking about one player (Jimmm). He threw in raerae after to cover his tracks. So scum!arch could have been much more willing to give IC status to just jimmmm. Which isn't nearly as bad as giving IC status to two players.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2034 on: April 24, 2013, 04:40:00 pm »

Archetype said it was next to a gold room and two hallways.  It was next to three hallways, no gold rooms.  It did cost $8 though.

add this to the ever growing list eh?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2035 on: April 24, 2013, 04:45:21 pm »

just some stuff to keep in mind from the opening post:
Quote
At the end of the night phase, one of you or your partners may perform the factional kill. If your kill succeeds, the player you chose will be “captured” and taken to whichever of the 2 Captured Players Vaults you choose to lock him up in. You will also have access to both of those qts, but don't post in them! Living players may gain access to those qts at some point, and you wouldn't want to give yourself away by gloating over the captured players.

...

FAQ #3

Remember that some players may have access to much less--or much more--information than you. This may make their lies seem more credible or their truths less credible. Or vice versa. Be on your guard.

FAQ #4

You will earn $$$ for doing various things. You have no idea what earns you $$$, and you will never know. When I tell you how much money you have, it might be much more--or much less--than you expected.

I wonder if one of our dead town buddies perhaps lamented over the fact that he had but hadn't revealed the Oracle results...

Also the FAQ #4 makes my point about arch having $8 to buy oracle so early in the game a little less solid, but I still think that is a very high number for someone to achieve, at least based off my coin totals thus far in the game.

FAQ #3 may also explain a situation--obviously I don't know the specifics--in which scum may have come across who owned the oracle somehow.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2036 on: April 24, 2013, 04:47:27 pm »

whatever we decide to do I think we should wait for ozle to return before we lynch arch, just to give him a chance to say anything that needs saying. He was supposed to be back monday yes?
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sudgy

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2037 on: April 24, 2013, 06:10:21 pm »

Archetype, if you're scum (which I think you are), you could have covered up by saying that you investigated yourself and Jimmmmm (so you would know for certain what Jimmmmm was if you got a scum result).  That might have been more believable.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

Jimmmmm

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2038 on: April 24, 2013, 06:12:09 pm »

Surely you can't name yourself?
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2039 on: April 24, 2013, 06:12:51 pm »

Archetype, if you're scum (which I think you are), you could have covered up by saying that you investigated yourself and Jimmmmm (so you would know for certain what Jimmmmm was if you got a scum result).  That might have been more believable.

I still wouldn't have believed it... Unless it was in the very first post about his Oracle claim. Then sure, believable.
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raerae

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2040 on: April 24, 2013, 09:26:39 pm »

OK, so we're waiting for Ozle then lynching, yes?  Is Ash still voting for himself or did he move back to Arche?
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sudgy

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2041 on: April 24, 2013, 09:30:05 pm »

Ozle hasn't been around for a while...  How long should we wait for him?
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2042 on: April 24, 2013, 09:31:39 pm »

Is Ozle VLA, or should I prod him?
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raerae

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2043 on: April 24, 2013, 09:34:40 pm »

Is Ozle VLA, or should I prod him?

I don't see that he posted in the v/la thread but I may have missed it if he did it a few days ago.
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sudgy

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2044 on: April 24, 2013, 09:36:22 pm »

He said he would be back Monday, but he isn't...  So I guess you should then.
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   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm

Robz888

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2045 on: April 24, 2013, 09:43:11 pm »

Okay, I will prod.
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yuma

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2046 on: April 24, 2013, 11:22:27 pm »

Ozle hasn't been around for a while...  How long should we wait for him?

We should wait for him until it starts to eat into our bankable time. But after that mark we shouldn't wait a second longer than we need to.
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raerae

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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2047 on: April 24, 2013, 11:44:42 pm »

Ash, why are you still voting for yourself?
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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 4)
« Reply #2048 on: April 25, 2013, 01:12:41 am »

Ash, why are you still voting for yourself?

Eevee said I am scummy if I don't.
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Re: Mafia XXII: Bankers Beware (Day 3)
« Reply #2049 on: April 25, 2013, 01:28:10 am »

Vote Count 4.4

yuma (1) -- Jorbles
ashersky (3) -- Eevee, Archetype, ashersky
Archetype (3) -- yuma, sudgy, raerae

Not Voting (3) -- Ozle, Jimm, Insomniac

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Deadline is May 12 at 7:00 PM. You will start eating into your banked time (16 days) on Friday.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2013, 01:49:56 am by Robz888 »
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