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[Eevee]

Ash hasn't offered to get lynched in a long time. Probably scum?

[raerae]

Ash hasn't offered to get lynched in a long time. Probably scum?

This made me laugh out loud. 

Also, I can get behind a mcmc lynch but won't be around until this afternoon/evening to add my view to yuma's case on him.

[sudgy]

It might take me a bit of convincing to lynch mcmc, but I might do it to end the day.

@yuma: I'm not sure what I would do if Archetype flips town.

[Jorbles]

I don't like the mcmc lynch, but I could get behind a Lekkit lynch if that's still on the table. You guys sure did a lot while I slept.

[Archetype]

I don't like the mcmc lynch, but I could get behind a Lekkit lynch if that's still on the table. You guys sure did a lot while I slept.

I'm in the same position as Jorbles, but I also want to add raerae to my list of potential list candidates. Though that's probably a better conversation for tommorow.

[Robz888]

Vote Count 3.8

Archetype (3) -- Jorbles, Lekkit, mcmcsalot
Lekkit (4) -- Archetype, raerae, Jimm, sudgy
ashersky (1) -- Insomniac
mcmcsalot (3) -- Eevee, yuma, ashersky

Not Voting (1) -- Ozle

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. There are 16 days remaining. Deadline is May 6 at 7:00 PM.

[Jorbles]

Okay, I'm adding my vote to the Lekkit lynch. mcmcs weird behaviour at the start of this day makes me think he's probably town. Lekkit's lurky behaviour isn't as compelling to me as Archetype's scummy voting patterns but the Lekkit lynch seems more likely to go through based on the way voting has been. I can live with lynching Lekkit.

Vote: Lekkit.

[Jimmmmm]

Hmm so I'm really torn on mcmc. There are specific thing he's done which I've found quite scummy, most notably his case on me (and I hope I'm not being biased). It also concerns me that while he was heavily critiquing me, he all but ignored what was admittedly probably my only significant contribution at the time, my stance on sudgy, which makes me wonder about the two of them. I know when I've been scum I haven't wanted to say too much about my teammate/s. Hmm.

mcmc, how do you feel about Insom?

[mcmcsalot]

Hmm so I'm really torn on mcmc. There are specific thing he's done which I've found quite scummy, most notably his case on me (and I hope I'm not being biased). It also concerns me that while he was heavily critiquing me, he all but ignored what was admittedly probably my only significant contribution at the time, my stance on sudgy, which makes me wonder about the two of them. I know when I've been scum I haven't wanted to say too much about my teammate/s. Hmm.

mcmc, how do you feel about Insom?

When was your sudgy case? Could you quote it? Also how I felt about insom was that he was lurking but I noticed it had a pattern which suggests real life reasoning(Wednesday and Friday are his post times) his responses to my calling him out yesterday also read towny to me so I felt towny on him. I haven't paid close enough attention to make a new read on him as I said I am v/la and trying very hard to keep up but don't usually have time to look back or review things.

[yuma]

well that was a failed experiment if you ask me, but continue to note that only ash, eevee and myself voted for him--people who had already voted for him...

While I am thinking of it I am going to put together a list of who has voted for whom... or rather who has been voted by whom in the last 2 days in an attempt to see if I can spot a trend... mostly I think it highly unlikely that scum would buss at this point in the game (especially yesterday because losing 2 players in 2 days as scum would be horrible)

Day2 is before the :::: day3 (only new voters) after.


Insomniac: Jorbles, sudgy, ashersky, yuma, ozle:::    (5)
Jimmm: Ozle, Jorbles, mcmc, sudgy, yuma, archetype:::    (6)
sudgy: insomniac, jimmm, jorbles:::   (3)
Archetype: eevee, yuma, jimmmm, sudgy:::jorbles, lekkit   (6)
mcmc: ashersky, yuma, insomniac:::   (3)
jorbles: ashersky:::   (1)
yuma: ashersky, sudgy:::eevee, lekkit, jorbles   (5)
Ozle: ashersky, Eevee, yuma, sudgy, mcmc, raerae:::   (6)
ashersky: yuma, ozle, eevee:::lekkit, insomniac    (5)
lekkit:  :::archetype, sudgy, raerae, ashersky, Jimmmm, yuma, jorbles   (7)
raerae:      ::::   (0)
eevee    :::::    (0)

Takeaways:

First off: raerae and eevee haven't been voted day2 or 3

Second: Lekkit has received the most votes--our magic number of 7 (from active players). That means that if everyone who has voted him so far votes for him, we can lynch him. This might not be a bad thing.

Third; lekkit received no votes yesterday, they have all come today.

Fourth: a list of players who haven't voted for each other:

Ins/jimmm; Ins/archetype; Ins/mcmc; Ins/Lekkit; Ins/raerae; Ins/eevee; Jimmm/ashersky; Jimmm/raerae; Jimmm/eevee; sudgy/mcmc; sudgy/ash; sudgy/raerae; sudgy/eevee; arch/mcmc; arch/ozle; arch/ash; arch/raerae; mcmc/jorbles; mcmc/lekkit; mcmc/raerae; jorbles/ozle; jorbles/raerae; jorbles/eevee; yuma/raerae; ozle/lekkit; ash/raerae; lekkit/eevee; raerae/eevee



Possible pairs:
Ins: 6 (jimm, arch, mcmc, lekkit, raerae, eevee)
Jimm: 4 (ins, ash, raerae, eevee)
sudgy: 4 (mcmc, ash, rae, eevee)
arch: 5 (ins, mcmc, ozle, ash, rae)
mcmc: 6 (ins, sudgy, arch, jorb, lekkit, raerae)
jorb: 4 (mcmc, ozle, raerae, eevee)
yuma: 1 (raerae)
Lekkit: 4 (ins, mcmc, ozle, eevee)
ozle: 3 (arch, lekkit, jorbles)
ash: 4 (jimm, arch, sudgy, raerae)
rae: 9 (ins, jimmm, sudgy, arch, mcmc, jorbles, yuma, ash, eevee)
eevee: 6 (ins, jimmm, sudgy, jorbles, lekkit, raerae)

So what does this all mean? First of all it isn't surefire, but I think it is a possible lead. Because scum could conceivable buss yesterday or tomorrow (but I would be a bit skeptical of that game plan, more so yesterday, but also today). So out of everyone obviously it is the people that are voting the least that have the most possible scum partners left. Those voting the most have the least (that would be me for those of you still following along). So if I am scum, that means I have to have bussed at some point yesterday or today.

Now how to interpret it.... Raerae jumps out at me! Wow. That is some very minimal interactions going on there and a very select group of people that she has voted for. Wait, raerae has only voted for one person the last two days? Am I reading that right? Let me check that out... Ok, she also voted mail-mi... this list doesn't include votes on dead people... And she voted ozle... I missed that one somehow (i'll add it back in). But that is it. She isn't voting a lot. So does that mean she is scummy for not doing so or is it kinda the Dsell effect from MXIX where he didn't vote for like the entire game?

For the others, I am more suspicious of people with a high amount of partners still theoretically available... Jimmm, Ins (his I think is due to less participation), mcmc and eevee and to an extent archetype.

Also, I just remembered this: and I hate to talk about it, but I feel like I need to do so... The Oracle has not yet claimed. If you are the Oracle, and investigated last night, now would be a great time to talk. If you aren't the oracle, don't say anything about this please.

[raerae]

Yuma, can you explain why throwing votes around like confetti is townie?

[yuma]

Yuma, can you explain why throwing votes around like confetti is townie?

well I don't think throwing them around is townie... but the whole point of my premise is thus:

1. scum was lynched day1 putting scum at three players and in a potentially bad position
2. if scum were lynched again day2 (and to a slightly lesser extent day3) that would be an even worse position with only two scum alive.
3. as such I would postulate that scum wouldn't want to buss their scum mates. Meaning that they wouldn't want to vote for them. (Now it is reasonable that scum might vote for each other and then take the vote of later, but that is risky, because people will be able to go back at some point and notice that interaction)
4. therefore people who have voted for each other are (in my opinion according to this premise) less likely to be scum partners. whereas:
5. people who have voted less and received less votes have more potential scum buddies possible and
6. people who have voted more and received more votes have less potential scum buddies possible.

I don't want to suggest that people just throwing their votes around willy-nilly is pro-town. It isn't. But in this scenario it makes me think that they might be more likely to be townies. Townies that, like me, aren't playing their best game ever.

However, people who are extremely cautious with their votes and have limited voting interactions with other players are inherently scummy to me. This is why I always found theorel scummy (when in fact he was never scum in a game I was playing with him) but that is just his playing style. Now this may be your playing style as well, but it does raise a red flag for me.

[yuma]

alright ash... you want to hammer lekkit now is your chance... vote: lekkit

I don't see town getting anywhere else today and we need today to be over. I see you are online so go ahead.

[ashersky]

Okay.

vote: lekkit

[yuma]

finally...

[ashersky]

finally...

Now that's it is twilight...yuma, are you actually scum?

[ashersky]

Okay.

vote: lekkit

Also, this is NOT a derphammer.  There's been plenty of talk.  I mentioned previously willingness to hammer.  We town need day to end.

[yuma]

finally...

Now that's it is twilight...yuma, are you actually scum?

No. I am not. I wish I were though the way this town is playing.

[ashersky]

Ash hasn't offered to get lynched in a long time. Probably scum?

+1

If I survive the night, and Lekkit turns out to be town, I'm sure I'm next in line.  Don't forget the Ozle!

[Archetype]

And dangit. Lekkit isn't online.

[raerae]

flip flip flip...if I'm dead tomorrow, look at mcmc's case on Jimmmmmm and his "case" on me.  Those are classic scum mcmc cases, sorry I wasn't around to do give more detail.

[yuma]

flip flip flip...if I'm dead tomorrow, look at mcmc's case on Jimmmmmm and his "case" on me.  Those are classic scum mcmc cases, sorry I wasn't around to do give more detail.

you could give it now... robz isn't online either.

[raerae]

flip flip flip...if I'm dead tomorrow, look at mcmc's case on Jimmmmmm and his "case" on me.  Those are classic scum mcmc cases, sorry I wasn't around to do give more detail.

you could give it now... robz isn't online either.

Working on it.  I'm going to start with him on me since that's freshest in my mind.

[raerae]

Sadly my reread didn't give me much. I want raerae's popsquiz asap, I think there is potential for one of eevee/raerae to be scum, they have played similarly and I think its a scummy way to play: low impact, protected jimm for little reasoning, and I believe raerae is in the category of bandwagon vote jumpers. Also her constant post about me are interesting, her stance is always very slight towny or very slight suspicious with chance of going either way. Now she could be town and I don't expect her to give a concrete read on me but I do think she would be more likely to give a concrete read on me as town then as scum. I think she wants to leave the option open to say I'm scummy and get me lynched, but she doesn't want to try to make a case for it either way and draw that attention to herself.

So he states that Eevee and I are playing a similar game but doesn't mention Eevee again during this post (or since as far as I can tell).  When he's wrong with me, he'll go after Eevee.  Beyond that, the whole "low impact" thing is crap.  I was very vocal about not lynching jimmmmm, pushed for mail-mi (yes, I was wrong but pushing is hardly playing it safe), and have pushed, as little as I've been around, for Lekkit today.  Moral of the story: I haven't been quiet so that point is moot. 

He then attacks, AGAIN, me not voting for Jimmmm...I just don't understand that.  It's one thing to disagree with somebody's reasons but he flat our refuses to acknowledge them.  Scum mcmc LOVES to minimize certain facts (like my reasons for not voting jimmmm) and inflate others (example coming soon). 

And his last point is that I'm a bandwagon jumper but he doesn't give an example.  He doesn't back any of this up with facts.  Scum mcmc loves to point out things that are scummy without actually giving examples of those things and just hopes others will dredge up something that resembles his arguments or take him at his word.

So, on to inflation, he says as that I'm constantly posting about him.  That's just outright false.  I think, at the time of the above quoted post, I had mentioned him 5-8 times.  Total.  The whole game.  Sorry, I just can't stop talking about him .  So, in addition to that, he comes to the conclusion that, as town, I would be more confident about my reads regarding him than as scum.  That makes ZERO sense, especially because I rarely get a solid feel for him before D2 or 3 and those have all been smaller games than this.  He says he doesn't expect me to give a concrete read on him but finds me scummy for not being more concrete with my read...I believe this is a solid case of damned if I do, damned if I don't. 

OK, so moral of the story is mcmc starts setting up lynches by posting fishing cases, like the one above, to see who will bite.  If it garners any attention, he pushes the case the next day and bulldogs it until it goes through. 

[Robz888]

Vote Count 3.9

Archetype (2) -- Lekkit, mcmcsalot
Lekkit (7) -- Archetype, raerae, Jimm, sudgy, Jorbles, yuma, ashersky
ashersky (1) -- Insomniac
mcmcsalot (1) -- Eevee

Not Voting (1) -- Ozle

What's that? You lynched Lekkit? Well, that's a shame, because he was a Town-aligned Coppersmith. What dreadful news!

All is not lost. I wish you all very productive evenings, oh my!

I will update your coin totals when I get a chance. I don't guarantee it will be tonight, though. I will post here again when all coin totals are updated. In the meantime, send provisional orders if you like, and QTs unlocked!

NIGHT THREE START!